NBC Action Communities

Well Gary we all know your excited as well as me, but we don't want a dissapointment. Merry Christmas! (Everybody at my house is asleep!)

I want to wish Gary and all the NBC Action Weather team, and all our wonderful bloggers a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!  Have a great day everyone and may all your wishes come true!  Dea

Merry Christmas to Gary, the Weather Team, all Bloggers, and all Lurkers!

The snow is beautiful, so are the warmer temperatures on the long range forecast!

God Bless you, each and every one,  Edna

Merry Christmas folks! For some reason, I'm up early. :)

Merry Christmas to Gary and the weather team. Hope everyone has a wonderful and safe holiday.

What a beautiful Christmas morning! Sunrise was gorgeous and the little birds feeding under my feeders are very happy for the christmas suet blocks.

Merry Christmas to to the weather team and fellow bloggers.

Time to put the ham in the oven and wait for my family to arrive.

Merry Christmas to all.  Like many, I'm usually just content to read rather than post, but this is a fantastic community that's developed.  Thanks to all of the contributors and let's hope for a white weekend!

Happy Holidays!!

Merry Christmas everyone. What I want for Christmas has all winter to get here.

Merry Christmas to all!!  Let's hope the trend continues and we get a nice snowstorm Saturday.

Well, it sure wouldn't surprise me if it snowed saturday that's the way it has been going in this pattern it's usually 60 the day before it snows :) Merry Christmas NBC ACTION WEATHER TEAM AND BLOGGERS.

merry christmas to everyone-especially those families out there who have loved ones halfway across the world this holiday season.

Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!

Well, We usually get more snow in January than we do in December right? So actually this December was better than most even though many of us had hoped for big snow.

Merry Christmas Everyone!  Beautiful morning, sun was out and shining on the bit of fallen snow we still have on the ground here.  It's starting to warm up some, up to 30 now, looking forward to the sunny and warm days forecasted for next week!  Have a wonderful day with family and friends, 'tis the season =).
--deb in Paola

Merry Christmas to all, yes it is an awesome white Christmas here in St. Joe, and guess what I got for Christmas... an anemometer, can wait to try it out, even has a wind-chill function:):)

MARRY CHRISTMAS GARY. AND thanks for all you do for us and the rest of the area. LET IT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Merry christmas to all! And to all safe travels!

Merry Christmas!  Our family is thankful to your weather team for the hard work you do.  The nice snow blanket is nice to see on this Christmas day!

Half the country has a white Christmas! Here' the map: http://tinyurl.com/6wnubq

Gary and the Weather Team,
Merry Christmas to all!  Thank you for your decidation to providing the best forecast and information as well as keeping this blog updated!  You are not only the most accurate, but the most passionate and we all appreciate everything you do!  
I usually read more than post.....but I am hoping for nice snow on Saturday.  Very little left here in Oak Grove this morning, but at least it is a White Christmas

hey thought i would jump in merry christmas to everybody enjoy the white christmas!

HOORAY FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS!!!!

and Merry Christmas to all!!!!!

Merry Christmas all!!

Thank You weather team for all you do, you guys are great!

It will be interesting to see what Saturday's storm does.

Merry Christmas Everyone!   May the joy of this holiday season warm the hearts of all who come to this page!  Best wishes for an exciting but safe New Weather Year.  Special wishes to the weather team who do an outstanding job of keeping us aware and learning about weather !                                                                                                                                                         Mary

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to Gary, the rest of the weather team, and the bloggers!
--Jeff (Belton)

Merry Christmas to all!

Gary,
I don't envy you this "cycle". You're hitting the forecasts very well, but it seems to be a bit more of a struggle (or more frustration) this time (due to the complexity of this "cycle") whereas it seemed to be much easier last year. I hope any remaining missing pieces fall into place soon to help your understanding of this "cycle" and the LRC as a whole.

I appreciate they way you (and the rest of the team) share your thoughts with us and give us some "weather schooling." It's been neat to see some of the regular bloggers grow in their understanding of weather forecasting. For the days when we grumble for an update, know that we appreciate all you guys do!

Merry Christmas everybody!!!!

Yey! MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!
I've never had a real Christmas dinner before, it was allways drumsticks and mashed potatos and some other stuff. This year its going to be bigger than thanksgiving! HAPPY HOLIDAYS EVERYBODY!!!!!!!!!!

Merry Christmas everyone!  I am going to Joplin tomorrow and will miss the snow Saturday, I am very disappointed, but enjoy spending some time down there!  They were the ones who got the snow last year, so wherever I am, the snow is not!  Have a great day, and thanks for the wonderful site!

Merry Christmas everyone!

A 2nd white Christmas in a row (if memory serves me right)! That's actually kind of hard to do in Kansas City.

Merry Christmas, and as a transplant from Omaha, I cannot tell you how happy I am to be playing golf tomorrow which is more important than a white Christmas for me!!

Keep us posted Gary for Saturday where as I have a full tank of gas in the snow blower and I am not afraid to use it.  Stay safe on Saturday everyone.

Merry Christmas everyone. I was wanting only a White Christmas this year, and Mother Nature delivered. Hopefully we get hit with a decent snow this weekend. Would be great to be able to peer out the window, and watch some big fat flakes of snow fall as I feast my eyes on a full slate of football. Hate to run, but I have a pork shoulder and a brisket that I have been smoking since 2 am. Hope everyone is having a great Christmas, and Gary, see if you can't call the snow gods to the rescue on this one........

Merry Christmas everyone. It is a white christmas today.

Weatherwise, both the 12Z and 18Z NAM close off the low, but not until it is well NE of here, from what I can tell.

The GFS still isnt closing it off.

Still very interesting to track it. I am rooting heavily for this thing to close off. I'm ready for a good snow, however knowing that it is very unlikely to happen.

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/54h/nam_pres_54h.html

18Z NAM looks very impressive with the initial precip bullseye being over kc and just south. Has the low tracking near OK/KS border. GFS models have everything just (and i mean just) east of KC. Remember, NAM picked up this last "storm" better than the GFS models.

GFS has let me down so far this year.  Maybe my faith will be in the NAM

I kind of hope it doesn't snow Saturday because I was planning on taking my cousins out bowling sometime in the late AM / early afternoon.

Thankfully, most of the forecast models, at this time, look like we will dodge the bullet on this, and probably get flurries on Saturday.

Merry Christmas to those who celebrate!  Happy Chanukah to those who celebrate!  I hope that everyone is having a wonderful day!

Thank you, Gary, Jeremy, Brett, and Jeff, for all you do!

Kristi

Merry Christmas, everyone!

Gary, do you think you will know "for sure" by tonight, or tomorrow morning?  I wont be leaving for Lincoln, NE until Friday noon-ish and will need to make my decision.  If we get a BIG storm, then I dont know if roads will be nice enough for me drive back safely.

How far north is this storm projected to go?

It appeard that your computer didn't want to be nice to you today! But you have to say, that was kind of funny.

-----------------

Alden,

Yes it was, at least it waited to malfunction at the very end.  It is working now for the 6 PM.

Gary

f00dl3,

You would think this close to the event, there would be far more details known at this point. However, it is way to close to call at this point.

The NWS is still on the fence on this one as well....


FEEL WITH A
SEPARATE SRN STREAM WAVE (REGARDLESS OF DEPTH)...SUFFICIENT Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A WEAK BAND OF TRAILING SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A FAR MORE ORGANIZED DEFORMATION
BAND COULD MATERIALIZE...HOWEVER WILL GO WITH A WEAKER SOLUTION AT
THIS POINT. STILL...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS SYSTEM...AS A
WIDE VARIETY OF POSSIBLE WEATHER COULD STILL COME TO FRUITION.
HOPEFULLY...WITH THE WAVE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE 00Z RAOB NETWORK
TONIGHT...MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

Hi Gary and Merry Christmas,
I did not detect much hope in your voice for Saturday's possible storm on the 6 p.m. news.  Hoping that I'm wrong!!  We seriouly need some snow around our house.  It's always such a let down when Christmas is over; sure would be nice to have a storm to look forward to.  Kathleen

Merry Christmas Gary and Weather Team.
It sure is fun watching all these storms evolve over time and move through. Even though we have not had a "big one" yet eventually one will happen...its just in due time.

Glad the computer worked for the 6 pm news.  It was trying to act up again.  Enjoy your dinner

Hi I usually don't comment but I looked at the forecast and it has 50 for Sunday, wouldn't that make a snow storm worthless?

All this talk about snow for Saturday.
As far as I can tell we might have a few flurries on the back side of the rain.
With the temps as warm as they are, we would have to get 6" or more for it to stick around for vary long.

All this talk about snow for Saturday.
As far as I can tell we might have a few flurries on the back side of the rain.
With the temps as warm as they are, we would have to get 6" or more for it to stick around for vary long.

I wasn't able to watch the weathercast tonight and I am confused about Fri and Sat weather. The NWS site says rain with chance of Thunderstorms Fri- some possibly severe for southern counties but it didn't say which counties.

So are we in for severe weather or a snow storm???

the 00 NAM looks like it closes off too let's see what the GFS says later on.

LRCfan,

The 00Z NAM tries to close off the low near here, however it doesn't do it until it gets to Michigan!

:(


The 00Z NAM does look better for snow than the 18Z run, still nothing significant, in my opinion.

The GFS is really nothing to hold out hope for though. It has yet to ever show this low closing off. I certainly dont expect to see it on the 0Z runs. If anything, I think the NAM is trending more towards the GFS.

Just my .02 though....

:)

blows by us again in lay terms. . . just too many things need to fall in place. . . it will not happen.

stjoelawyer,

Agreed. If we are into patterns in this blog, then lets look at the pattern.

I remember a low closing off back in mid-november to the west of us. Since then, we have yet to see that happen again.

Im not betting on it happening this time either. There has been a constant theme of storms not really getting their acts together until they are well east of here...

Major bummer....

I'm wondering the same thing farmgirl.

For those of you who are saying it is too warm for snow, remember the high for the day could be at midnight. The temps have also been known to drop 30 degrees in an hour or two. This is K.C. where anything can happen and often does. :-)

It seems like a lot of the "storms" lately have been nowcast events. I for one will sit back and watch to see what it does. The national map on the NWS sure is colorful West of us. The line of pink was more towards CA than Utah either this morning or yesterday. Is it just me or is it not moving as fast as a lot of the more recent storms? It could be me as I am very tired. The youngest (13 yrs old) got my husband and I up way too early after we stayed up too late the night before.

the ground temp is what matters, not 2 days of above freezing temperatures.  if it snows, it will stick.  we still have most of our snow on the ground.  even if it all melts tomorrow, that doesnt leave much time for the ground to warm up.  

we have yet to have a strong storm move through the area(since october).  because of this, i am still holding out hope for a big one.  however, the trend has been set in my opinion, independent of lrc theories.  i am still waiting for those maps gary was talking about correlating this to earlier events.  when i look back myself, i see setups that could be construed as congruent, but the wave pattern surrounding them looks completely different.  im not doubting, just trying to locate features.  

i think storms will be firing east of here tomorrow night/sat morning, and south of course...at this point i see a snow 'event' like the one a few weeks ago where we picked up ~.5" in a quick 30min-hour time frame.  if it slows down a lot, things may change.  im just not seeing enough to be optimistic about more though.

All the high temps in the 7 day are above freezing,so to get any snow it will have to do it in a vary short time frame as the over night lows get cold enough.
To get much to stick it will have to snow at 2" an hour rate for a few hours stright.
That is something I havent seen in KC for a vary long time.

Adam, I was trying to be optimistic because I want a snow event but I learned I can't be greedy :) Plus I've had a little too much holiday cheer as my wife would say.  Oh well I will look at the maps better tomorrow,Have a good rest of the evening.

lol,for what it's worth :) http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX

is there any update on the storm for saturday?

LRCfan,

Hope you had a great christmas!

Should we be suprised by that map? Many will be dissapointed, however, that map should be what we should expect for most "snows" here in the metro.

I keep going back to that stat the team displayed awhile ago. Something like only 3% of the time does the KC reporting station report more than 6 inches. Thats why anytime i see the GFS showing a foot of snow(much like it did for this storm) at 80-120 hours, I dont buy it at all.

That kind of stuff just rarely happens. It's just no fun...

ipushsnow, it doesnt work like that.  it takes a long time for the ground to freeze.  it has frozen.  it will take a while for it to thaw.  and snow is less than 48 hours away, if it snows decent at all, it will stick.  remember even when it is 100 degrees outside, soil tends to max out at around 55 degrees F.  so when it has been below 0 just a couple days ago, you dont have much to worry about ;)

Wow weird Christmas weather... white and WARM temps still climbing I think...

I really don't like like it when we bounce from really cold and then the next day its almost 60...  YUCK!   I really hope this warm weather goes away until spring.. ugh

Im with ya on that one DG.  The thing that really sucks is if it does snow on Saturday it wont be around at all once it hits that 60 degree mark!

Gary:

Good early May morning to you sir!!! Currently sitting at a balmy 53 degrees this morning-man, we timed Christmas morning just right eh?? The barbarians from the south have broken through the gates this morning and unlike Fellowship of the Ring Gandelph is not standing there yelling: YOU SHALL NOT PASS!!!! I have to say though that as much as I love snow and cold and wish we did have Gandelph standing at the gates, it is a very nice morning out this morning-breezy but very nice out!!!

Man, the next 24 hours is going to be something to watch unfold!!! A few random observations with the always given caveat that they are the ramblings of a history teacher who is a hobbyist on a good day!! LOL

1. Looking at the 11Z surface charts you can already see I think, the front developing in the Northern Plains with the surface low located in Eastern Wyoming. Will be interersting to follow this front today and there is still some pretty cold air present in the lower 48-the Dakotas are still in the single digits.

2. Looking at the 0z modles runs only at the 500 level (I did not look at qpf outputs) the UKMET, EURO, GFS, all three I thiunk are trying to close this southern energy off and the Canadian does indeed close it off in Oklahoma. The GFS wants to track it between Fort Scott and Joplin and the others I think are fairly similar-pretty good track!! It appears the models have also slowed this down somewhat as compared to earlier runs. In my very humble opinion I think what is important is that all the models do indeed still show that there will be southern energy with this system and have trended to making it the dominant player as compared to the Northern energy. Is it right-will be something to watch!!!!

3. This could indeed be the type of system that really pops someone in the central plains with a decent swath of snow-looking at the GFS the heights at the 500 level are crashing hard in a short period of time-there is for sure some serious energy with this. This type of scenario has had times in the past smacked us pretty good-we can have big thunder boomer at 8:00 P.M. and then by 2:00 A.M. we have heavy snow. Also, there is that secondary long wave trough over Oklahoma-is this the event where it shows itself and decides to come to the party or do we once again see that dominant long wave be the star of the show.

4. As always, this will something fun/interesting to watch unfold and it may not be until the event begins to unfold that one has a real bead on what will happen. Will be fun to look for the spin later tonight to the SW and see if it has developed or not thats for sure!! Man, why couldn't we have gotten this type of energy to say south when we had cold air already in place??? Ah the dreams....

Just some random thoughts this morning-I hope they make a little bit of sense!! LOL

I hope everyone had a great day yesterday-Guitar Hero invaded my house and I spent the afternoon singing Crazy Train and Band on the Run-I will burn the evidence LOL!!!!

Have a great day and as always thanks for reading!!

Bill in Lawrence

Woah...time to break out the Bermuda's!  This is the best of both worlds.  You can go snow skiing one day up in Weston and then go down to the Ozarks and go water skiing.  Of course, it's also good for travelers like us who are driving up to start our vacation in Iowa today.

Its muggy outside.. feels like spring.. yuck  

PingBack from http://digwe.com/tags/102/200812/nbc-action-news.html