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UPDATE...Tornado Watch...what is the threat?

Good late evening bloggers,

Thunderstorms are scattered all over the place.  Some of them have the potential to produce large hail, about quarter size.  I still think this will evolve into a larger area of rain between now and 4 AM and the cold front will move through this area of rain and thunderstorms.  There is a tornado watch until 5 AM.  We are monitoring this situation closely, but the main threat is hail tonight and the threat should be reduced as the area of thunderstorms grows in coverage.

Let me know what you are experiencing. I really appreciate it.  All of the severe thunderstorm warnings have expired. If there was going to be a serious tornado threat the first thunderstorms that formed would have evolved into supercells by now.  This has not happened and the threat is very minimal the rest of the night. There is still potential for flooding by morning.

Gary

Published Friday, December 26, 2008 11:09 PM by glezak

Comments

 

Dwxtracker said:

Storms look to be popping pretty good along the front. Maybe we will have a secondary line come through with the front?
December 26, 2008 11:26 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

So do you guys think we will have watches and warning going on and off all night. I'm SE of the metro between Lee's Summit and Blue Springs.
December 26, 2008 11:30 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

gary, are you sure hail is the main threat and not gusty winds? these cells are low topped and it is pretty warm up in the top levels.  
December 26, 2008 11:33 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I can hear the rain hitting the windows here near the 7 and Colbern in Lee's Summit.
December 26, 2008 11:34 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

to continue my last post...the only two warnings to come out have stated wind and no hail...and the wind was marginally severe...
December 26, 2008 11:35 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

ok, I'm not sure that is just rain..
December 26, 2008 11:35 PM
 

chieffan07 said:

Hey Gary, it is really great to know that you all are staying up late to be on top of this for us all. This may be a bad question, but do you think that the any areas of the Tornado Watch will be canceled early? I really don't want to go to sleep with this watch still going and I would rather not stay up until 5 in the morning.

Thanks
December 26, 2008 11:36 PM
 

MTongate said:

Missed your 10 oclock forcast.    any snow?
December 26, 2008 11:37 PM
 

bewild79 said:

it is currently 63 here in parkville, a little windy...had a brief downpour and can see the lightning from the other storms but they seem to be missing me...
becky
December 26, 2008 11:37 PM
 

bewild79 said:

my stinkin weather radio just broke...the antena just came out and I cant get the screws off the back...
becky
December 26, 2008 11:47 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Those storms out at Manhatten continue to grow.  Ft Riley has had peak wind gusts of 43.  Thats about the highest I can find.  From here in Jefferson County there doesn't appear to be much lightening yet from those storms.  I can see occassional flashes, but from here it looks to be cloud to cloud from them.  Its really neat being high enough to see ground strike lightening from 75 miles away when it happens.  I'll try to stay up and watch the line for all of you in the land of the big city.
December 26, 2008 11:48 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Salina has just dropped to 48 and just south of there in McPherson it is still 56, the front is moving through there.
December 26, 2008 11:54 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Looks like the storms are training from the South and east. I wonder if this Is why there is a Flash flood Watch?
December 26, 2008 11:57 PM
 

CtinaDitty04 said:

I just drove home by boyfriend and we had some pretty crazy lightning going off. Very impressive! We thought we saw even a little part of one of the clouds come down then go back up.. We were scared, let's just say that. The scariest thing is that all the wind just disappeared. What was that about?! Now, that I'm back home it seems the wind is picking up again... Strange weather... A tornado watch the day after Christmas? Insane!

"If you don't like the weather in Missouri.. Wait a day, it'll change."
                                                                        -Mark Twain

December 26, 2008 11:59 PM
 

Poloweather said:

So what is tomorrow like ... I need to go from Polo to KC to Warrensburg and back to Polo?  Looks like rain/maybe worse?
December 27, 2008 12:00 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

there is a flash flood watch because the ground is still frozen believe it or not...wont hold water like it normally would, so heavy downpours could be tricky
December 27, 2008 12:02 AM
 

Tinpusher said:

Crazy, not a drop here in Olathe, passed us to the east, typical.  Going to bed disappointed..good night everyone.
December 27, 2008 12:18 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

farmgirl,

The PW values [precipitable water] are very high for this time of year...over an inch ahead of the front with some areas higher.  With the ground still largely frozen, runoff will be higher..thus the FFW.

pvt,

Looking at the radar at some of the VILs [dangerous this time of year to interpret] and even one storm report, large hail is possible.  Certainly enough updraft to handle it.  Looking at soundings, it is hitting freezing near 700mb.  So..possible.

Its funny..didn't even pay attention to the watches/warnings today.  Just enjoyed the WAA and was amazed how strong it was!
December 27, 2008 12:19 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

its not over tinpusher!
December 27, 2008 12:20 AM
 

davidmcg said:

Onaga KS south to Wamego they are experiencing dime size hail
December 27, 2008 12:21 AM
 

mstauss said:

Here are a couple lightning pics from my front porch just outside of Trimble, Mo this evening.  We only got about 8 drops of rain from the storms but since they all went just east I was able to get a couple decent lightning pics.

Here's a link to the pics:
http://www.houseofstauss.com/weather/122608_lightning.php

They might be a little large for non-broadband users.  About 1.5Mb total between the two pics.
December 27, 2008 12:31 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

its possible youre right scott.  but is it the main threat? a  bow echo is trying to form.  

i was speaking of the metro storms in regards to hail potential.  the line along the cold front certainly has more upside for the time being, although i still think staightline winds will pickup as the line evolves.  

on the IR satellite loop, you can see a very nice low forming in north central NM.  it looks good.  there is good inflow from the SW, it is a healthy, deepening system.  
December 27, 2008 12:33 AM
 

pmccabe58 said:

Ok what is tomorrow looking like? Anyone know? I missed the 10pm weather :( , someone help me out please I want snow!
December 27, 2008 12:35 AM
 

davidmcg said:

The storms up near Holton/Horton/Hiawatha are putting out some nice looking lightening.  Here in McLouth it is still 61 with ssw winds of 8 gusting to 14, humidity at 81%, dewpoint is 57 and a steady barometer of 29.6

Maybe we will get a few drops.
December 27, 2008 12:54 AM
 

chieffan07 said:

pmccabe58, I think it is supposed to be like a high of 40 and maybe a "wintery mix". I'm sure someone else could give you more specific info but that’s all I know.

Hope this helps.
December 27, 2008 1:02 AM
 

chieffan07 said:

Any thoughts on how this storm is going to continue for the next 4 hours or more? I don't know much about weather but does anybody thing that the Tornado Watch could begin changing into a Severe Thunderstorm Watch soon? I know there is a Tornado Warning near Moberly but the line to the West seems to be forming into a line. Any thoughts from someone who knows would be great.

Thank you
December 27, 2008 1:09 AM
 

Tabitha said:

I was just outside and saw some bright flashes although the sky is clear but could tell that a storm was moving in but was still aways off.  Came in to look at the radar and saw how impressive of a line the storms have formed.  This truly has been a wild week of weather!  
December 27, 2008 1:09 AM
 

HideawayLaker said:

Poloweather: Take the usual safety gear and keep the top up?
December 27, 2008 1:29 AM
 

davidmcg said:

Well this front is slowing way down now.  The weather is now moving more ne than east or se.  So I am headed off to bed.  Probably be another hour before it gets here near McLouth.
December 27, 2008 1:32 AM
 

HideawayLaker said:

Hey Chief, At this time of night, the main issue will be scattered, heavy rain cells.
Here in Polo, it is calm and balmy. We had a few drops of rain and some flashes, a few rumbles
December 27, 2008 1:33 AM
 

Tabitha said:

Thank you chiefsfan07 for pointing out the tornado warning near Moberly.  I have a sister that lives in Mobery, a sister that lives just north in Madison, and my parents live in Higbee.  I had no idea about the warning and called to make sure they were aware of it!  It's hard living about 5 hours away in Colony, KS knowing they may be in the path of those severe storms!
December 27, 2008 1:33 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

impressive squall line for december standards moving into the area...

interesting...it is already down to 34 degrees in falls city, NE.   61 here at the fort.  this storm is colder than the models expected.  
December 27, 2008 1:34 AM
 

HideawayLaker said:

Great snaps, Stauss, thanks for sharing them!
December 27, 2008 1:37 AM
 

mattmaisch said:

Murph,

Glad to see you point this out.  The cold air seems much more progressive than the models indicated.  Am I the only one wondering how this will impact us as the day moves along?  If the QPF the 00Z models is accurate, and the temps fall much faster than expected, you can't help but wonder how this will impact the day.  Not trying to get dramatic here or anything, but this has to increase our chances of frozen precip, and significant amounts at that by quite a bit.  What are your thoughts Murph?  Gary??

Matt
December 27, 2008 1:41 AM
 

CtinaDitty04 said:

Still 64 in Lee's Summit!
December 27, 2008 1:42 AM
 

chieffan07 said:

Thanks HideawayLaker, that calms my nerves.

Tabitha, I'm glad I can help. I hope they are ok, that warning lookes like it has been going for a while.


December 27, 2008 1:44 AM
 

mstauss said:

My pleasure Hideaway.  I got kind of lucky tonight.  Normally I go outside to try to get lightning pics and the lightning is always just out of frame.  Tonight was kind of rare in the fact that I only took about 30 pics and got 5 decent ones.  I'll put the rest on my website in the near future.
December 27, 2008 1:47 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

Front just barged through... my digital thermometer went from 65 degrees to 53 degrees within a minute or two, front came in much like a thunderstorm outflow with a very low cloud and strong winds VERY IMPRESSIVE WEATHER. Actually the front is now associated with the storms on radar so you could argue it was a hybrid of the front and the thunderstorms helping with the outflow.
December 27, 2008 1:47 AM
 

4caster said:

Just got awakened to tornado sirens here in illinois.  Crazy weather indeed!
December 27, 2008 1:47 AM
 

KansasPatriot said:

coming up on 2:15am, and there is a line of storms heading in! big line!
December 27, 2008 2:12 AM
 

mattmaisch said:

06Z NAM seems to be acting in accordance with the faster push of cold air.  More wintry solution than I've seen in several model runs.  Interesting to say the least..

Matt
December 27, 2008 2:17 AM
 

simplykristi said:

I just got in...  Temp is 62.  I have seen lightning off and on over the course of the night.  There  was some rain that moved thru earlier in the night where I was.

Kristi
December 27, 2008 2:42 AM
 

MissionKim said:

What a fantastic night - I don't want to go to bed and miss anything! I'm in Prairie Village and lots of lightning flashes off to the Northwest. Temperature is 64. Keeping my fingers crossed this all makes it to KC.
December 27, 2008 2:52 AM
 

heavysnow said:

Is that the low in New Mexico I see?
December 27, 2008 2:52 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

The main line of storms moved through I would say about 30-40 minutes ago, had lots of lightning, heavy rain, and some small hail(less than pea sized) now a steady rain with temps falling, digital thermometer is now reading about 39 degrees!!!! (still having occasional rumbles with the rain)!!!
December 27, 2008 2:53 AM
 

NicoleWasHere said:

Guh, I don't even know what season I'm in, anymore!!!   T___T
December 27, 2008 2:55 AM
 

wxwmn said:

1" hail reported in Independence at about 1250am.
December 27, 2008 2:56 AM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

line approaching Leavenworth. Had some strong winds, 35mph or so, some scattered rain showers, should be getting a nice soaking overnight.

Then......waiting for the snow.
December 27, 2008 3:00 AM
 

simplykristi said:

wxwmn,
Where was the hail in Independence?  I was out there until about 1 AM.

Kristi
December 27, 2008 3:04 AM
 

LRCfan said:

Wow Nick St Joseph is falling fast!!!!!! Wichita has mid 30's and thunderstorms topeka has fallen to 41. KCI is still in the low 60's at 3am. Well I just checked the thermometer here in Leavenworth and I have 50 now so definitely the front has pushed thru here and the rain has started.
December 27, 2008 3:04 AM
 

Dwxtracker said:

The northern part of the line, north and east of Topeka, looks to be weakening as it approaches the metro. :(
If we have to have rain, I was hoping for some good thunderstorms at least.
December 27, 2008 3:07 AM
 

Husky07 said:

is there still not a chance of any accumulation of snow tomorrow?
December 27, 2008 3:09 AM
 

mattmaisch said:

Don't give up on winter weather out of this deal yet.  There appear to be some positive signs.

Matt
December 27, 2008 3:16 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

Well I have to get some sleep now:( So good night all (what a night it has been and is)!!
December 27, 2008 3:19 AM
 

LRCfan said:

Just looked at Dodge City and  WIchita Area Forecast Discussions put out by the nws offices they are going to have winter wx advisories issued for parts of there areas not sure what areas will be affected maybe this is a sign of whats to come.
December 27, 2008 3:20 AM
 

LRCfan said:

ok this is intereting in leavenworth we are down eight degrees since 3am it's now 42.
December 27, 2008 3:22 AM
 

motherbear said:

This line looks well defined but not too threatening. Do you think we are out of the tornado threat? I would love to sleep through this thunderstorm.
December 27, 2008 3:36 AM
 

wxwmn said:

I don't know where exactly the hail report was...It was on the LSR from P. Hill
December 27, 2008 3:38 AM
 

juba said:

One mean lookin storm is coming, I hope I get it!
December 27, 2008 3:41 AM
 

LRCfan said:

well at least portions of the area should be cancelled from the tornado watch I am down to 39 in leavenworth by the way wichita is expecting 1-2 inches of snow by evening.
December 27, 2008 3:42 AM
 

simplykristi said:

Wxwmn,
Thanks  I went and looked at the storm reports on the Storm Prediction Center's website.

There are some strong storms south of Topeka.

Kristi
December 27, 2008 3:45 AM
 

mattmaisch said:

06Z GFS not nearly as promising as the 06Z NAM.  Would have liked to have seen it even more wintry than the NAM, but no such luck...

Matt
December 27, 2008 3:47 AM
 

LRCfan said:

Looks like Topeka has elected not to issue a winter wx advisory but wichita has.
December 27, 2008 3:47 AM
 

LRCfan said:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=top&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning
Severe thunderstorm warning please click on link and read this storm is moving at 75 mph according to the nws that is really fast this could produce wind damage douglas.franklin are included.
December 27, 2008 3:54 AM
 

simplykristi said:

Severe T-storm Warning for Franklin and Douglas Counties for quarter-size hail and 60 MPH winds.  The storm is moving NE at 75 MPH.

Kristi
December 27, 2008 3:54 AM
 

LRCfan said:

Kristi this is really interesting I wish Jeremy or Gary were here I'm sure they are somewhere I'm down to 36 in leavenworth if this keeps up I'm going to be getting snow in the next couple of hours but really I'm worred about this storm that is dangerous if it is moving that fast
December 27, 2008 3:57 AM
 

chieffan07 said:

Is that severe storm headed toward the Liberty area? I know its still kinda far off but any idea of where its headed would be great.

Thanks
December 27, 2008 3:59 AM
 

farmgirl said:

Is the line bowing out near ottawa and headind towards La Cygne?
December 27, 2008 4:00 AM
 

LRCfan said:

new blog!!!!!!!!!!
December 27, 2008 4:01 AM
 

mattmaisch said:

New Blog loading..
December 27, 2008 4:08 AM
 

simplykristi said:

LRCfan,
The biggest worry will be the wind since the storm is moving sooo fast.  I've not heard anymore warnings issued.  It was warm here the last time I checked.  I know the front has moved thru downtown.  I would not be surprised if I went out and checked the temp and it was falling.  I sure enjoyed the 60-degree weather on Friday!

Kristi
December 27, 2008 4:13 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:22 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:22 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:22 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:23 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:23 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:23 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:23 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:23 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:23 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:24 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:24 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:24 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:24 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:24 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:24 AM
 

juba said:

My power is out near the JoCo airport and there was lots of tree damage, sent from phone
December 27, 2008 5:24 AM
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