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Welcome to 2009 bloggers! May this year bring us more exciting weather to talk about and analyze! Overall the weather has been just as expected for today, some clouds and highs in the 40s with a good breeze.
The recently completed month of December provided some wild weather swings to the area. The month was characterized by below average temperatures and above average precipitation and snowfall. Here are the numbers from KCI.
- Average Monthly Temperature 28.7 (-2.6)
- Precipitation Total 1.83" (+0.19")
- Snow Total 6.2" (+1.9")
- Warmest Temperature 66 (26th)
- Coldest Temperature -3 (22nd)
- Average Wind Speed 12.2 mph
A few other notes about December 2008. The average monthly temperature of 28.7 degrees was the coldest December since 2000 when the monthly temperature was only 19.1! A lot of people thought this month was windy, which it was, but looking back through 2008 April was slightly windier with an average wind speed of 12.3 mph.
That is where we've been, now how about a look into the (near)future. As we discussed yesterday a storm will affect the region this weekend. The most noticable thing will be the push of mild air. Highs should be in the upper 40s to around 50 on Friday, then into the 50s on Saturday. Clouds will likely arrive by midday in many locations. A few showers will be possible especially near and east of the metro. Colder air will arrive either Saturday evening or Saturday Night. This will drop temperatures into the 20s by Sunday, and change any leftover precipitation to snow. The snow looks like it will mainly occur in northwest Missouri, with maybe some flurries in KC. Right now it looks like little to no snow accumulation for most areas.
I often times get asked about the LRC on the blog. So I did a little looking back since this non-phased storm this weekend looks very familiar and also the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe of next week also seems like we've been there before.
Gary has mentioned that his initial thoughts were that the cycle was around 50 days or so. Looking at the 18Z GFS run and then looking back into November I found this comparison. Again this is only the 500mb chart, but the non-phased flow this weekend and then what follows next week certainly looks a lot like what happened in November.
First here is the 500mb map for November 15, 2008.
Now here is a look at the 500mb forecast map from the 18Z GFS for 6Z Wednesday.
The maps are roughly 52-53 days apart. Both have the high off the West Coast, and the trough which extends to southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. These maps don't prove the LRC, but just help to show where I think we are at this point. Our winter forecast to this point based on the LRC really couldn't be much better with the below average temperatures and average to above average snowfall and precipitation.
When Gary returns next week he will go more in depth on what we are looking for over the next several weeks or so. And, go to www.LRCWeather.com as Gary goes just a bit more in-depth into the LRC.
We'll see how winter turns out, but a well known Meteorologist that works for a private weather company out east recently compared this to December of 2000 and what followed the next couple of months. In other words, he basically said the harshest of winter is behind us. I hope this is true since I'm not a huge fan of winter, but using the LRC I know there is plenty of winter ahead!
Last night I asked for a picture of me doing the weather at a New Year's Eve party. Stacy Martin sent this picture of her boys about to ring in the New Year. I didn't know I made a fist during the weather segment:)
Thank you for stopping by the blog! The weather team wants to wish everyone a Happy New Year!
Jeremy