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Not much activity on here this morning.  I would have at least expected some pennings from bill about martin luther or how uneducated his hypothesis is.  When it actually actually a must read entry to the blog.

Go weather team!

Jeremy,
Great entries this week in gary's absence!

Let it snow! ***************** Thanks for reading my posts:) While precipitation hasn't occurred recently, the fronts are fun to track. Jeremy

Bill gave his morning post in the previous blog.  He does underestimate himself.  His post are a must read that is for sure

 Forgive my inncolence, but what's Armageddon week, it been everywhere on T.V. With the 2012 thing that Nostradomas predicted, whatever that is.

Wow, I wish yesterday would come back - talk about spring fever!  I'm dreaming of my garden, flowers, taking the bike out.  It was so nice, and so much easier on the heating bill.  

But, back to the cold reality.  I'm sure someone posted it somewhere, but when is the wet/active part of the cycle supposed to start kicking in again approcimately?  I'd like to budget and make sure I have extra groceries stocked up so I don't have to get out in the slick stuff any more than necessary.

I think mid-Jan to mid-Feb is when it will more active.

I'm hopeing for more snow with all the cold air.

Since it's a slow day, I'll throw this out and see if anyone has suggestions.  I'm looking to purchase my first wireless weather station and have $200'ish to spend on it.  I'm considering the Oregon Scientific WMR968 and the LaCrosse WS-2316U.  Anyone have any experience with those or other suggestions?

Thanks in advance!

Jeremy,

I live just west of Trimble, MO, 13.5 miles NE of the airport as the crow flies.  I went through my weather stats for the days you mentioned and came up with the following.

12/9     57.8 @ 12:00 am  10.9 @ 7:40 am 12/10    46.9 drop.
12/14   60.6 @ 9:45 am   2.0 @ 8:45 am 12/15       58.6 drop.
12/27   65.3 @ 2:43 am   20.7 @ 4:17 am  12/28    44.6 drop.
1/3       57.9 @ 3:25 pm   12.9 @ 7:03 am 1/4        45.0 drop.

While the results are similar, there is a noticeable change in just a few miles.

How about the warm ups preceding these drastic cool downs.  While not quite as dramatic because the temp climbs a lot slower than it drops when the cold front comes through these are still some large temp swings.

12/8   17.6 @ 2:56 am   59.4 @ 10:58 pm   41.8 rise
12/13  38 @ midnight   60.6 @ 9:45 am 12/14   22.6 rise
Christmas   9 @ 1:58 am   65.4 @ 7:31 pm 12/26  56.4 rise
1/2    24.9 @ 7:58 am   57.8 @ 3:39 pm 1/3    32.9 rise

******************

The warm-ups sometimes occur over a couple day period, not as dramatic, but once the bottom falls out everyone notices the quick change.  Several days in the 60s in December is pretty impressive, and 1 already in January, a nice break from the cold:)

Jeremy

Jeremy,

Are you contractually obligated to support the LRC or do you believe in it yourself?

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If I didn't believe it I wouldn't write about it.  In my opinion the LRC is a very valuable long range forecasting tool.

Let me ask you this...do you believe the Old Farmer's Alamanac or the Climate Prediction Center?  I don't, so the LRC works just fine.

Jeremy

I for one don't mind it not being in the single digits as the high. It is kind of sad when 32 degrees seems warm. I loved loved loved yesterday. Outside with my youngest in just a pair of jeans and a tee shirt.

Gant,

I've been through two OS WMR968's.  Actually I have a few pieces of one still working.  The base unit and two remote temp sensors still work, one monitors the temp and humidity of the wine cellar/store room/safe room and the other remote sensor monitors the same in the garage/smoking room.

The first WMR968 I had worked perfectly from late 1999 - early 2006.  I can't complain one bit about that one.  Shortly after I moved out of KC and up north here in early 06 some of the parts started having problems.  The rain gauge gave out and the anemometer blew over in a wind storm and broke.  It was almost as cheap just to replace the whole thing than to get the replacement parts so I did.  I did not have near the luck with this second unit.  The base station still works and that is all.  The two remote sensors that I mentioned earlier were a separate purchase.  Again the rain gauge was the first to go, then the anemometer quit working shortly before it blew over in a wind storm and the outdoor temp sensor also quit functioning shortly after all of that.

So I am 50/50 on the 968.  As I said the first one was perfect for a long time and the second was junk and has been replaced by a Davis Vantage Pro 2.  I also have everything mounted much better now so I shouldn't have to replace another anemometer because of the winds up here.

I have no experience with LaCrosse.  

Check out these sights for weather station comparisons and info.

Weather Underground has good links and info here.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/index.asp#hardware

Ambient Weather also has good info and prices.  I have purchased all three of my weather stations from them.  They have excellent customer service.
http://www.ambientweather.com/peorhowest.html

There is also some good info on hardware here.
http://www.weather-watch.com/smf/index.php/board,16.0.html

If you have any other questions regarding weather station set up or about any of the software you might use please go to my contact page on my website and ask away I'll answer any questions that I can.
http://www.houseofstauss.com/weather/comments2.php

Eagle Airport in Eastern Alaska right now... -58 degrees!!!! WOW!! Yes it is sitting up there getting ready for the amplification of the pattern. Well we are cold again but the temp ride will continue.

*****************

Looks another pretty good swing from Friday into Saturday coming up!

Jeremy

Grant, I sell weather stations on my site at:  www.kclongrangeweather.com
LaCrosse is the lower end, but works just fine for most personal weather stations.  

Nick, you can see the North Pole live temperatures at my webstie.

Dose any one remeber the winter of 2006 where we where hiting the 80s by late february and only had one artic front all winter look at January of 2006 BELOW what coused this great winter not dramatic temp swings just nice and warm. Thier was also no snow recorded for the entire month of januray

JANUARY OF 2006
     HI   LO
 1  62  37  
 2  59  38  
 3  57  35  
 4  55  41  
 5  44  32  
 6  42  32  
 7  60  31  
 8  59  33  
 9  40  32  
10  33  28  
11  50  27  
12  57  33  
13  42  31  
14  52  25  
15  64  46  
16  50  33  
17  41  26  
18  57  24  
19  61  38  
20  38  32  
21  43  30
22  45  28  
23  40  30  
24  57  34  
25  50  25  
26  63  37  
27  61  47  
28  57  47  
29  57  37  
30  51  32  
31  64  30  

Thanks mstauss and GaryB.  The info is much appreciated.  Mstauss, your experience with the 968 mirrors everything I've read.  About 50% that have it are happy and 50% have had problems after a short period of time.  GaryB, I'll send you an e-mail to follow up.

LRC reality check.....The LRC is defined as anywhere from 49 to 53 days, or a cycle period recyling from anywhere from Nov. 13 th to the 17th.  Inside that time frame, it was somewhat mild and wet.....  The roller temp ride had not yet occured--although was predicted by GaryL.......   Aside from that, I just don't see any comparison to the last 49-53 days.  Yes, the maps look similar, give or take 5 days, but the failure of the LRC is with actually predicting something short of generalized thoughts which anyone can do.  

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Gary,

Just read the next couple of days blogs. The comparison is absolutely fascinating as described in blogs last week.  The reality check on the LRC this year is that it has happened again!

Gary

Good late afternoon Jeremy!

Temperatures dropped like a rock last night here in Kansas City, Kansas, we went all the way down to 12.7, but recovered up to 26, and now the slow decline has begun once again. I must say Jeremy I am really looking forward to the more active “precip” type of the pattern to return. While the constant and sometimes quite drastic swings in temps have been downright amazing, I am ready to see some more of the white stuff! But it sounds like we only need to wait about another 10-15 days before the more active portion of the LRC returns.

Gant-

The Oregon Scientific WMR968 that you are looking to purchase it a fine piece of equipment, one of the first ones that I purchased back in the day! I currently own a Vantage Pro 2 Plus and love it. I have mine hooked up to a separate computer near my HAM equipment and run it constantly on Virtual Weather Station and stream it to WeatherUnderground. My information on my station can be seen here http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KKSKANSA9 .

But like some other bloggers have mentioned including mstauss comment to you, those are excellent links to take a look at. My most memorable problem that comes to mind with the Oregon Scientific is that is does have some issues with wind speed and the batteries in the wireless models do tend to have issues in very cold temps (single digits) . But not something that occurs all the time, just take your time shopping before you purchase one, it becomes a very addictive hobby (monitoring the weather) with your own personal weather station, but something I am sure that you will find very rewarding.

Best of luck to you!

Bryan

*Jeremey could you please delete my other post. Thanks!

Ok, I love the winter because it brings snow, but after walking my dog today in the cold I decided I wouldn't complain if we could've had another day of yesterday's temps! When the front came through yesterday the temperatures really plummeted. Now it is 24 degrees in Mission and I am thankful there is not much of a wind to make it colder.

**********************

Just wait until later this week, you'll get another warm-up and a big temp drop. 

I can already see this Spring a day or two where it warm into the 85 degree range and then falls back into the 40s:)

Jeremy

It seems to me i need two houses one in the middle of Kansas for the tornado's and severe weather and one in the middle of Idaho ridiculous amounts of snow for them there getting snow by the feet a pop. While we get snow by the centimeter a pop here. This is just ridiculous for Dallas TEXAS to be under a Freezing rain advisory and us to get absolutely nothing in the form of winter weather. IM OUT!!

**********************

It will be a close call on Tuesday, but probably little to no precipitation in KC.

Jeremy

I'm looking at doing my own little WX Station as well, just because it's fun, and I have the micro science mind :)

I think I'd prefer a wired/ac version, never one to want to miss data, only looking to spend under $500 and units which don't have the footprint the size of a small farm... :)

H.

1 degree above zero in Minneapolis...GO VIKES!!!

Back to our regularly scheduled programming...

***********************

I think I'd rather be like the Chiefs and not make the playoffs.  The Vikings lose right away when they do get in so the let down is greater. 

Jeremy

That's too bad. I just got back from minnesota, and the drastic change is very demoralizing. Up there, we made it to 30 degrees which felt balmy, while some here were close to 70. There is almost 2 feet of snow on the ground, and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon. Oh, how I miss it....

********************

I thought I missed snowmobiling, but my 3 day trip to Minnesota cured that last weekend.  I'm ready for Spring!

The weather is a different beast 'up north'!

Jeremy

Jeremy great question -- "do you believe the Old Farmer's Alamanac or the Climate Prediction Center?"

Wow, that was pretty good.  I think one is about as accurate as the other.  Although I do have a copy of the old Farmers Almanac.  The weather part is for grins.  We get for sunrise/sunset info and gardening stuff.  But there is a lot of amusement in it.  The CPC -- well big brother is out there, so no statement at this time.

********************

The mild forecast that the CPC posted back in November for December-February may hold true for only the first 3 weeks of January, after that I would expect the temps to drop below average again.  When February is completed this winter will end up below average temperature-wise.

Jeremy

Always good fun...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20081120_winteroutlook.html

As far as Jan, the CPC sees no areas more prone to below normal temperatures with the majority of the US as more chances to be warm than normal or below normal.

For grins, just looking at model data, I picked a point in the CPC above average temp chances - Cleveland Ohio.  I took common data [just one spot checked run of the GFS], and did not see more than one day in the entire run where it gets over freezing.  With their mean temps in Jan around the mid twenties, I am thinking just off this quick look that Cleveland for one will likely stay below normal mean temps.

Knowing what is upcoming in the LRC, and also seeing a sample run of a spot not expected to be warm further strengthens how the LRC is a huge advantage.

Certainly, this is just a spot check, and in of itself is not strong evidence, but I am curious how many events have to happen before it is enough where critics to come around to the LRC?

I gotta say this...for Jeremy to strongly endorse the LRC is something.  He doesn't have to.  In fact, the first year or so he was here, he would deflect to Gary or not answer LRC questions.  Trust me..I remember...I would grill him on it!  He doesn't have to go along with it.  But, now he answers the questions, and now actually posts LRC examples.

If Jeremy can do it, I wonder what is the roadblock for others?

Garyb, you are a broken record on trying to poke holes with surface data.  It has been explained time and time again how this method is shaky at best factoring in seasonality and jet location variables.  

Perhaps re-read a blog entry dedicated just for you and your surface thoughts...

http://www.lrcweather.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=83%3Ascratching-the-surface&Itemid=29

;-)

Another week in the dead of winter and a major snowstorm is nowhere to be seen...  Yawn...  I think Old Man Winter is making fun of us.

Matt

Gary:
Good typical early January morning to you sir!!! I hope you had a good few days off!!! Currently sitting at 23 degrees here in SW Lawrence this morning under patchy clouds. Not bad out this morning at all!!

Looking at the 10Z surface charts it looks like the High is right on top of us and slowly drifting off to the east-I think our winds should return to the south here in the next few hours and thus begin the next “climb”.  For sure we have been very dry the past week or so but man these fronts-ever since November these fronts have been something to behold dry or not!! Very exciting to follow!!!

A few random thoughts here this morning that as always one must keep in mind that they are from a hobbyist on a good day-in other words, read with extreme caution LOL!!!

1. I have been hoping beyond hope that in this NW flow we would some how catch lightening in a bottle and have some northern stream energy dive far enough south and west that we could get lucky-not looking good!! However, as happened in November, these fronts have some real power and man it is still so cold in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan-we are going to be like a yo-yo-up and down-up and down!! I still hold out a little hope that some southern energy can stay together under this flow and not get totally squashed and or suppressed-it happened in November especially on Thanksgiving weekend so who knows. It is fascinating though how when looking at the upper level flow how it is right in line with what happened in mid November-even the storm for this weekend is in touch with the storm around 11-22.


2. To me though, the next two weeks aside, the most interesting thing is how both the Euro and GFS in the longer range are both now showing a rise in heights in the Gulf of Alaska-the 0z GFS even showed a trough developing in the SW U.S.-December 9th anyone??? The key in my humble opinion, is that the models are picking up on the beginnings of the active period-sure, they will bounce around with specifics, but the changes are there-the Euro has been showing this consistently since Saturday.

3. That being said, one thing for sure, (in my very humble opinion) the LRC has nailed this pattern and is so ahead of the curve this year it’s not even funny!! This return to the NW flow was predicted by you Gary and the team back in November and also it was predicted that it would be tough for us to get a good precipitation maker in this part of the pattern-well, here it is!!! Another point regarding the LRC-Scott has discussed this and I think it is such an important point: the real key to the LRC is the forecaster-the LRC is there but the forecaster is the most  important part in not only sniffing it out but also applying it to the weather and relaying to the non meteorologist such as myself. I just think this point cannot be stated enough!!!

Well, I’ve babbled enough this morning-I’m back in the saddle today or as Rush would say: in the high school Halls/in the shopping malls be cool or be cast out-it is back to school today!!! I think I am going to start by showing the surface data from the massive cold front of 12-14!!!

As always, thanks for reading and providing such a great place to discuss the weather!!! You guys are Tight!!! Have a great day!!

Bill in Lawrence

P.S.: It is so awesome Gary that the LRC has again made onto the easternusweather forums!!! You're famous!!! LOL

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Bill,

Happy New Year to you!  Great observations as you wrote this before I had my entry posted this morning.  We aren't catching "lightning in a bottle" this year as the northwest flow just refuses to set up right for us, and I am certain this trend will continue. That leaves us with a very frustrating year for winter weather around our part of the nation, and at the same time we now know what is coming in the next month.  If we just can have it all come together even once I think we will be fulfilled, but will it?

Have a great day.

Gary