Good morning bloggers and Happy New Year!
The calm and dry weather will likely continue for another week or two before we transition back into the much more active part of this year’s LRC. A strong return to winter weather and storm systems is likely in the weeks ahead.
During the first week of January, last year, we issued an LRC based forecast that verified quite well as we moved through the first two months of the 2008. We accurately predicted that cold air would blast in when other forecasts were predicting mild weather for the rest of winter. That was last year. It is time again to utilize our knowledge of the LRC and issue some long range forecasts. I am doing this today at www.LRCWeather.com. I will go into some of the details of this years fascinating pattern here as well.
The weather pattern we are cycling through based on the LRC is just fascinating. Meteorologists from around the nation are finally seeing the LRC. It was brought to my attention this past weekend of an eastern United States weather forum (www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=184388&st=0 ) where they practically mention the LRC, “The parallel between this pattern coming up and what we saw from mid-November through December 10 is simply too striking to ignore”. It isn’t being ignored by us and I am excited that others may finally begin picking up on what is going on in our atmosphere just above the surface.
We are finally confident in what this pattern is capable of doing for our local region, as well as around the nation. And, we now are convinced that the weather pattern is cycling at around 50 to 53 days. Over the past few weeks, months, and years, we have been sharing our thoughts with you through the NBC Action Weather blog, and now our new site www.LRCWeather.com. This sharing of our information has one main goal of sharing a revolutionary way of forecasting the weather short term, medium, and long range by using the LRC. This has opened us up to a lot of criticism, which is welcome as we are currently doing research on the causes, existence, and proof that the LRC exists.
So, where are we today on January 5, 2009? We are in a weather pattern that is dominated by a roller coaster ride of temperatures. We did it again this weekend. Seemingly out of nowhere it jumped to near 70 degrees Saturday before we dropped to 14 degrees yesterday morning. This ride will continue to characterize our weather pattern. We are in the part of the pattern that is a bit calmer and not as crazy as it was during most of December. The wilder part of the pattern will be returning right on schedule as described in our winter forecast. Expect this to return from around January 20th to February 15th.
Are you ready? Beginning last year we started using my theory to make forecasts by looking ahead. By January my confidence level has grown to where I believe we can now project forward to some big features that are likely going to repeat. We believe that the weather pattern is cycling every 50 to 53 days. Even though it is the entire weather pattern that is going through this cycle it is easiest to see the larger features. One of the more significant troughs developed right after Thanksgiving as you can see below on the map valid November 30, 2008. This ignited the more energetic and exciting part of the weather pattern across North America:
The evolution of this trough was not predicted well by the computer models so don't expect this to show up on the models until we get within a few days of this part of the pattern which should happen close to January 20th.
It was two weeks later when we really got into the part of the pattern that will likely blast the United States with the strongest Arctic air mass of the season. Look below at how the pattern looked on December 14, 2008. This will likely repeat around the first week of February and the week before and after this date will be producing some rather wild weather across the United States:
I usually show you maps comparing a current weather map to what happened in the past. Showing it this way, projecting forward, is a way to present the LRC with a showcase of its existence. So, this is an experiement that worked well last year and we will all watch together as this all unfolds in the coming weeks.
There will still be some strong cold fronts and the temperature rides will also continue before we get to the wild stretch ahead.
Have a great start to the first work week of 2009. If you have any questions please feel free to ask. We will try to have a nice discussion on the LRC today and what we are to expect as winter continues. We will also be looking ahead to spring very soon.
Gary