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Is it me or does the 7 day forecast keep changing?  

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I believe it is just you.  Brett has stuck to the forecast we had yesterday.  Maybe you are seeing some other varying forecasts.  We have tweaked it a bit, but it is pretty consistent.

Gary

Good morning!

Boy, what a BORING weather forecast, no chance or any percipitation at all?

Warm then cold, warm then cold.. Its not a surprise that everyone seems to be getting sick.  People in Kansas tell me that it hasn't always been like this, Kansas used to have actual winters.  Could have fooled me!

I really liked your spot on Action weather plus yesterday afternoon. You went into some great detail. I can't wait for the active part of the pattern. I am afraid that the arctic air may be a bit stronger than last time.  I do have one question about the LRC. What cycle lengths have you had in the past. Last year I think it was around 54. Not sure though. Just wondering if it hovers around the same length or if you have ever seen a very short cycle like 30 days or so? Thanks.

By the way thanks for the spell check. I need it. Can they fix LRC?   It comes up as an error.

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In the past few years we have had a 60-62 day cycle, a 35-40 day cycle, a 42-48 day cycle (the year of "the storm" that repeated every 45 days or so), and others.  Last year and this year are very close to the same cycle length, but I believe it is just a coincidence.  I am not sure what causes the cycle, but the MJO (Madden-Julien Oscillation) is a cycling pattern in the tropics and has been shown to be in the 30-60 day range and it intrigues me.  I have been reading a lot about the MJO and many, many other meteorological phenomena, but nothing is clicking yet.

Gary

Where is the snow forecasted in your winter forecast Gary. I agree the LRC seems to handle your temps, but at this rate we will never in the metro area see your snow totals. Bummer!

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Well, we really aren't that far off in many spots.  I believe Lee's Summit is up to around 9 inches of snow this winter.  KCI airport has had over 6 inches.  And, remember that the part of the pattern that produced those smaller snows is coming back. So you can probably double those totals, and then add in one storm where everything comes together and we may very well end up with our winter snowfall forecast.  Now, there are parts of the viewing area from Clinton and Warrensburg soutwest to Pleasanton, KS that have had almost no snow.  So, it has been a struggle.  We will know within weeks.

Gary

A lot of winter yet N2, give it time.  On top of that January is the driest month of winter.  Right now be happy we don't have a lot of snow.  Its not uncommon for it to snow now and then stick on the ground for 2 months.  Thats worse than what we have now.  Snow that hangs around just creates mess after mess.  The LRC is in a lull right now, its headed back towards the active side next week.  We'll get snow soon enough.

Gary & team,

I for one am glad to be in a boring weather pattern for a spell.  All these 30-40 degrees drops in temperatures don't sit well.  I'm sure that the LRC and the patterns and statistics make sense to you but I am reminded of the ol' saying:

Statistics are like bikinis.  What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.  ~Aaron Levenstein

I am one for the snow sticking around for weeks to at least brighten the landscape. Leafless trees and brown grass get old real quick. However after receiving my gas bill for heating the house, I am ready for May! Absolutely horrible, December temps killed the budget.

I will be ready for the warmer temps as soon as we get one REALLY good snow.  You know like 10in at least.  Then it would be go-cart time!!!!lol
becky

What is the difference between a strong cold front and an artic blast?

Gary, is it true that such a roller coaster ride of temperatures as we are having this winter can cause foundations of homes to crack? Edna in Leavenworth

what do you think Severe Weather Season will be like? The surface lows seem to track just north of us which would put us in for a interesting day during spring!! More Sky Tracker this year? I wish Sean was still here, this year looks to be the year to see a "good" tornado outbreak.

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Andrew,

I will work on this question for the Action Weather Plus!

Gary

Gary, this is sort of a computer modeling question, and I'm sort of grasping a bit here as to the actual terms to use in asking my question, so you may to read some between the words to get to what I'm trying to ask.

It seems your team reworks the various modeling data using PowerCast and during process your group enters whatever changes you think are necessary to arrive at the basic answer of where you think the weather is headed.

The question is does the NWS do something similar via some in-house program before issuing their forecast, or do they just look at all the various model outputs and arrive at a conclusion that way without really digging any deeper.

Bob

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Bob,

This is a very good question and I can't answer for the NWS.  But, we do change the situations in our powercast to make it look how we would like it to look as a storm comes in.  I think this is one of the big differences that everyone can see on the air.  When a storm approaches everyone is using the same data, but the presentation is often quite different.  We work very, very hard at making our powercast stand out, especially on those days as a storm approaches.  I make my own colorbanks, we change so many different parameters.

Gary

Brett...

I disagree... weather fluctuations play havoc on me... causes a cold everytime.  

andrew,
I asked Gary about that yesterday.  It will be interesting if we start our season a little earlier than normal.  We should have our cycle go through at the end of March into the first week of April, then again at the end of May (22nd?)  

"Facts are stubborn, statistics are pliable"  Mark Twain

I think if it ever reached 50 degrees below zero here, I would have to train my dog to use a litter box. No way I would want to walk her in temps like that! =)

I was at North Pole, Alaska in July 2003 while driving around the Alaskan paved highways on vacation.  It was much nicer that day with clear skies (great view of Mt. McKinley) and 80+ highs (a heat wave).  I don't plan to vacation there in the winter.  The city's website northpolealaska.com says that this is a typical low for December. Brrrr.

"Gary, is it true that such a roller coaster ride of temperatures as we are having this winter can cause foundations of homes to crack?"

The temp fluctuation itself does not cause cracks in foundations, but any moisture that is in the cracks or near the foundation can cause problems.   When it goes from 60 to 10 in 1 day and rain falls during the change, the moisture will freeze and thaw causing the problems you mentioned.  

My brother-in-law works for a foundation company and the #1 issue for foundation integrity is water runoff.    Make sure your gutters and downspouts are clear and all water runs away from the foundation.    We are not as bad as parts of Texas and OK, but the clay soil is not the most stable and leads to problems over time.

Trust me, if you are worried now about a few cracks, call and get a few inspections and estimates.     It is much cheaper dealing with it now rather than waiting for bowing walls or water coming into the basement.

I am no expert, but just had some work done last spring and it has relieved me of the stress watching the cracks slowly grow.    

Good Luck

Not sure I would go for an "Arctic Blast" early/mid next week, but would favor a strong cold front that may bring another sharp temp swing.  I guess it is semantics, but when I think of Arctic Blast, I think of something a bit more persistent opposed to a strong cold front which may bring very cold temps, but doesn't persist.

The roller coaster will continue.  Oddly, before launching lrcweather.com, one of my last blog entries on my site in November [Nov 1st}, I had - "I think it will be a year of extremes both warm and cold".

This - even then - was taking some components of the LRC and seeing it even then how it would relate to the pattern.  Pieces can be useful, but certainly knowing the whole thing makes a bigger difference.

This part of the pattern is especially prone to ups and downs for us as these waves move north of us in this trough/ridge/trough movement feeding the Great Lakes trough longwave...and I think I counted on maybe one or two deepening enough to give some snow chances, but really..it is later that we must once again look for a deepening western trough in the SW regime to roll out and along a cold air mass.

That regime favors this type of set up..but it is so finicky so far.  It is just one of these types of storms that if it can dig enough along the OK/KS long term longwave may slingshot a surface low up through Joplin..and give us not just a little snow, but alot at one time.

It would only take one of these to potentially dump up to a foot of snow.

It was so close last time through, but the split flow trapped a few of these ULLs, resulting in only some vorticity being thrown at us as the energy sheared out.  It was this that gave the multiple 1-3 inch storms as much of the rest of the elements were in place and primed to go.

I am seeing signs already of a deeper ridging in the Western areas which could really funnel the deepest cold air into the region later this month/early Feb...but wonder if it will again trap these ULLs.  I hope not.  I would love to see these three/four larger ULL [sub patterns] eject without being hosed up along the way.

Will have to watch the SE ridge as well..that will be a player in how these ULLs eject.

Just Scott's thoughts.  Back to regularly scheduled programming.

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Scott,

This season is more of extremes of cold with warm surges.  Next week's cold front will likely be somewhat of an Arctic blast, but weaker than the ones expected later in the month or next month. 

Gary

Gary, can you wear a green tie for us?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0CghAKgY4E

:) enjoying the posts, keep up the good work, waiting for some weather "action"

Gary. Do u think that With the Wild Tempature swings. Plus the forecast of a Major Artice Front.

Will there be any chance of an Ice storm during the push of the front.

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There will be a chance of an ice storm, just like the last time through the cycle.  This wouldn't be until the late January or February set ups.

Gary

I would enjoy the break and not expect much of anything until the first week of February or so.  Then, I think we'll go to zero temps.  Having said that, I don't see that much more snow for the season....sorry.......  Maybe 4 more inches at best, but looks like we'll certainly fall way short of the 18" average.

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Gary,

It certainly seems that this pattern won't quite come together, but something still tells me that it will come together at least once in the next 6 weeks. So, 4 inches of snow the rest of the season is very unlikely.  If it produces the same amount as we just had in the first cycle then we would be around 12 inches at KCI and 18 inches around Lee's Summit, with around 22 inches around Trenton, but only a couple down south.  This is if we don't have it all come together.  It just has to!

Gary

Never mind just a green tie Gary, wear a green tie plus green shirt and green coat!  Maybe on Halloween??   ;)

-50 is below average, even for interior Alaska, but certainly not unheard of. The averages are closer to -20. Downright balmy in comparison....

Been out of circulation for almost a month, making several trips between Tx and KC.  The weather has been interesting to say the least.  Was in KC Dec. 26-27 to witness the big warmup/tornado watch with damaging storms/rapid changeover to freezing rain and late day snow that Saturday.  Amazing.  At least two large trees were blown over in my Northland neighborhood.  The weather down here in Tx where I am again now has been crazy too, with 80s on Saturday and a mini ice storm yesterday.  Things are now calming down here too and look forward to some mild and sunny weather until the weekend.  Gary, here's hoping the weather gods spare all of us the LRC forecast of a major Arctic outbreak late Jan or early Feb!  

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We are working on the forecast right now.

Gary

Gary,

Are you still confident of a 12" snowstorm on February 4th that you posted about last week?

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Notes,

O.K. no way did I say there would be a foot of snow in early February.  Go and find the statement.  Maybe in my dreams I said something like that in the blog.

But, I do still think that it has to come together during that first half of February, and very likely during that first week.  And, coming together means a major winter storm, which we have avoided so far over the entire viewing area.

Gary

There will be a chance of an ice storm, just like the last time through the cycle.  This wouldn't be until the late January or February set ups.


Jan 2002 would like to talk to you. Could u look at the maps during that month and compare it to this month and see.

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It isn't even close!  The chance of an ice storm is extremely low!  The last time through it didn't quite happen, so the threat is there, but not for weeks from now.

Gary

Marlina10,

I agree. I don't think my dog would have any problem using a litter box!!!!!

Thanks for a good laugh.

Notes - in realizing there is a newer entry out there now, I thought I would still leave this comment should you read it.

RE: the foot snowfall on Feb 4th...I think you are referring to what might have been said on air that night after the blogger poll..and yes, I recall hearing the same thing..but cannot remember the context or tone of the remark.  I think certainly forecasting a foot of snow would be quite bold..and may have been more of a wishcast based loosely on the pattern but more on the max potential of what it could be/or want it to be.

The storm referenced should be around...but probably would wait a bit closer to see what is setting up from a more granular forecast.