NBC Action Communities

Hooray! So what exactly has been preventing us from getting a big storm and what do you see changing?

I have my doubts that we will get that "big storm" with a foot or so.  We may all to resolve to the thought it just may not happen this year.  I think if it does, it'll be in February and even then, not much to make the snowplowers happy unless it occurs later in the month.
I just don't see anyway we'll reach anything close to the average of 14-18" (depending on location)
January's average is 5.27 of snow
February is 4.89.
We still have a chance.

Yes, Gary, I for one am excited to hear the long range plans.....I recall you once thought Feb 4 was good for a major snow storm.  Does that still hold with the new data?  I realize alot of people don't like snow, and that it can cause hardships, but I guess I am still a kid at heart and love at least one great big snow storm each winter!  It would be perfect if I could have the snow for my birthday (Jan 18) but I will be happy just knowing one is coming!  Thanks!

-------------

That first week of February should have a stormy set up.

Gary

Thanks, Gary. I just saw AWP!!

Yey!!!

*Cough* Ice storm set-up *Cough*

I never really understood the dry slot until this winter and now I get it. I, too, am ready for a nice snow storm!!

Gary,
As my mom and I were watching your segment during the 5:00 news, Mom commented on how boring the weather is. :)  When are the wild swings in temps going to end?

Kristi

Gary, this is a completely hypothetical question. If you had to put a percentage on our chances of receiving a widespread 6-10in. snowstorm in the metro what would it be? (Hopefully this qualifies as a legitimate question with some of the other weather experts who troll this blog!)

From the last blog earlier today:

 
>>NotesInTheMargin said:

>>Gary,

>>Are you still confident of a 12" snowstorm on February 4th that you posted
>>about last week?

>>---------------------

>>Notes,

>>O.K. no way did I say there would be a foot of snow in early February.  Go and
>>find the statement.  Maybe in my dreams I said something like that in the blog.

>>But, I do still think that it has to come together during that first half of February,
>>and very likely during that first week.  And, coming together means a major
>>winter storm, which we have avoided so far over the entire viewing area.

>>Gary

....................

Your post from December 28th:
http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/12/28/3641573.aspx


How much snow do you think will fall in our biggest snow this season and when do you think this storm will happen?  ...

My prediction:  12 inches of snow around February 4th!

Gary
Published Sunday, December 28, 2008 6:45 PM by glezak

---------------------

Notes,

Oh, I remember now.  That was a fun game I was playing with the bloggers that night.  It wasn't a serious forecast.  I just threw it out there for fun.  It is not one of my official forecasts.  We get around a foot of snow once every 25 years. 

Gary

When is this low pressure going to rise a bit?  I'm showing 28.11 inHg (absolute not sea level) and it just kills my arthritic knees.  Anything above 28.70 inHg I feel much better.

Dang, I'm not even close to 40 years old, and already complaining that my joints hurt based on weather. ;)

Notes - I left you a note [ha..I made a funny] in the last blog entry about your Feb 4th question...

Not knowing if you watched the newscast that night, but I sense there is a contextual tie from that newscast and the discussion there to what was posted in the blog.

Certainly, that part of the pattern will be more active, and there is a storm near that timeframe that has the potential of a big snow, but would guess that it wasn't meant as an official forecast for that date, but more in the spirit of the blog poll and the max potential based on that particular storm.

Garyb, nothing in Gary's post talks about a big storm with a foot or two.  Based on climate norms for this area, that would be off the chart for standard deviation.  

Certainly that part of the pattern has that potential, but things would have to go PERFECT.  Even those not following the LRC with meteorological understanding would agree to that.

I am curious..what does this mean?  "I just don't see anyway we'll reach anything close to the average of 14-18" (depending on location) "  Can you quantify what "anything close" means?  Is that an inch off or ten inches off?  And depending on what location?

Last year, we saw a heck of a variance in total snowfall within the viewing area to nearly nothing to the S/SE to a very nice snowfall to the W/NW.  Just trying to understand what you are stating...

Hey chfs = "*Cough* Ice storm set-up *Cough*"  I know you are a fan of ice and generally any weather condition that may be devastating, so in this remark, is it wishcasting, or do you have anything substantial that gives you this thought?  Can you help me understand what you are seeing as it relates to some of the general parameters such as moisture transport, 850 mb temps, surface temps or anything in the synoptic realm that can help me better understand where your thoughts are coming from?

Kristi - I must be one of the few that love the air mass clashes...LOL  I would think some of it may relax as we get back into the SW regime in the active pattern later this month.  Right now, we are seeing quite a few clipper type storms riding to the North of us dragging surface lows allowing some nice warm ups ahead and cold air behind.

When we get back to the active pattern, I would expect less of the clipper type environment, and a bit more of what we saw in December.  We should get the cold air, but it should be a bit more persistent..and less flux.  We will still see some swings, but maybe not as regularly...

Springhill...I too am having a knee throb....guess it goes with the season of extremes...LOL

O.k., o.k., I think I've got this forecasting thing down, around feb. 4 could be any day in the first week of feb. give or take afew days of course. And the viewing area could be anywhere from St. Joe to Clinton or Manhattan to Columbia. Whew. Hope a little light hearted humor from one of the "laymen" out here is taken as such.

********************

Actually the viewing area is more Topeka(ish) to Sedalia.

Jeremy

Hah Gary, you've just jinxed it and we'll really get 12" snow on February 4th... :)

Even though the new year is young, I'm just not feeling confident (and I'm not a meteorologist) now we're going to get anything outrageous this Winter with snowfall in the immediiate Metro area. :(

H.

---------------

The amzing thing is that it isn't just the immediate metro area.  Not one part of the viewing area has been hit by a major winter storm......yet.

Gary

Snow?  Feb 4th?  Come on Gary, figure out a way to talk to the "money people" at the station and give away a Hawaii trip to a viewer who really, really doesn't want that big snow storm you're walking about. :-) Ha, Ha!

Just wishing for Summer here!

Now we are talking.  Round one was just a warm up.  Round two will be a few weather jabs and a strong upper cut or two right into Kansas City.  I cant wait.

--------------------

Or we will just get knocked out if we aren't careful.  LOL

Gary

Well this is a really late post, but better late than never;)
It will be interesting to see what unfolds, 1. If the arctic air is stronger this time around then the jet and storm track may be a bit farther south, now I know with this pattern we are not in the best spot, but maybe that will try to slide some of the stuff that missed us to the north last time a bit farther south. 2. It has been noted before that some storm systems will "trade" places some what from cycle to cycle so we may get a storm that has a slightly different set-up interms of where the arctic air is at for a storm so that could be a twist and 3. It has been noted that in some LRC's that while every cycle is very close to the last one.  Sometimes the third time around end's up looking more identical to the first cycle, and the fourth looks closer to the second, if that makes sense. So maybe the storms in this active part of the pattern will look closer to the October versions( at least in structure) than in the December version(of course the jet will still be much stronger). Well this is probably just some mindless rabble from a guy who just got off work that nobody will read;) Oh well good night/morning(semantics again):)

-------------------

Nick,

Great comment! It does make sense. Hopefully this next cycle has a bit more excitement.

Gary

Gary:

Good January morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 27 degrees this morning with some patchy clouds-pretty typical January morning out. Maybe a bit warm but really this is pretty typical weather for this time of year. One thing for sure, the Get Smart affect is just as reliable as the LRC LOL!!! It reared its head again yesterday LOL!!!

Nick-I read your blog-it was awesome man!!!

Ok-here we go-a few random observations this morning in which I am going way out on a limb and will most likely wind up falling off!! But as usual, making myself look foolish has never stopped me before!!

1. I think the water vapor imagery this morning really tells the tale of where we are in the pattern at this time. You can really see the NW Flow as well as any moisture from our source regions being shunted off to the east-pretty cool really!! It is really going to be tough for us to get any kind of decent moisture in this regime just as it was in November. Maybe the clipper early next week can get some energy a bit south and west of us but in my very humble opinion it will be tough. I think we are going to have to be content with the wild temperature swings in this part of the pattern (like this Friday!!)-hey, if you think about it, these strong cold fronts are really fun to follow and track in and of themselves. That being said, we still have the Thanksgiving weekend energy to come through and the models are picking up on some southern energy making it under the NW flow towards the end of next week-maybe some hope there?? Am I even on the right track?? LOL

2. Speaking of the “cold shot” early next week (big limb here!!) If one thinks about the part of the pattern we are in, then the core of the cold air should be shunted east of us and we should get really just a glancing blow of this-St. Louis should feel the brunt of it much more than we do. The 0z GFS was much more bullish on the us getting the cold air than was the 0z Euro this morning and I think given where we are in the pattern the Euro makes more sense. It will get cold-maybe even single digits but I think it will be similar to what we just saw Saturday/Sunday followed by some coolish temperatures a few days afterwards-kind of like this week. This is the time for the East Coast-it was in November and it is now-ours is coming!!!

3. Even though right now is not the most exciting time (unless you are weird like me and love to follow cold fronts!!) it is exciting to follow the development of the active cycle. I think the models are still trying to show this in the longer range. The 0z GFS does develop a strong ridge in the very extended range-it is placed too far East I think,  but it is there and the Euro continues to show heights rising in the Gulf of Alaska. It is fun/fascinating to watch it all come together and yes, I do fully 100% believe this active cycle is going to back at the end of January.

4. I mentioned this yesterday morning and Jeff mentioned it on the LRC blog last night-we need that weaker secondary long wave in Oklahoma to quit being agoraphobic and come to the party. My feeling is that in the active cycle it will indeed decide to leave the house. For sure, the main long wave to our east has delivered the goods this winter but I think all we need is in the active cycle is that secondary long wave to show itself and then we could have a very significant storm. I just have a feeling that this time through the active cycle it will happen-it was pretty close in December. Granted this is just a feeling but the ingredients are there for us to have a significant winter storm in this next active cycle. Am I wish-casting here??? (cue the tale of Sir Robin from Monty Python’s Search for the Holy Grail-bill in Lawrence made a wish cast-bill in Lawrence made a wish cast-no I didn’t-no!!)

Ok-I have made myself look foolish enough this morning and probably have made everyone fall asleep in their breakfast!!! Whatever happens, this has been a great pattern to follow and will continue to be-a great time to continue to try and learn more about the weather!! Thanks for providing such a great place to do so!!!!

Have a great day!!

Bill in Lawrence

***********************

Bill,

It has been a great pattern to follow, and I stayed awake during your entire entry. LOL  

I agree with just about everything you just talked about.  You and Nick really came in this morning strong. 

Today is the day I am issuing the more specific long range forecast.  Talk about pressure!

Gary

Bill,

Great to read your thoughts this morning.  Since I don't drink coffee, your posts are the next best thing to get an energy boost!

Jeremy