NBC Action Communities

Run Forest Run!!!!
Can't wait to see your LONGER Range Forecast.

Will the forcast include the weekend of the 16th?  We are trying to plan a trip and it is going to be completly weather dependent.  We didn't think about weather when we got married...silly kids!  I think our anniversary is always the coldest day of the year!

------------------

We may not get that specific.  But, we can look into each individual day ahead.

Gary

i love waking up to Gary saying the word SPRING, nothing worse than a cold, non-event winter, the sunshine is deceptive, I prefer if it is going to be cold that we at least have some snow or rain..or something interesting to go with it.

Jacob best of luck with your fundraiser.  Brett good luck with the marathons.  I'm tired just thinking of the running you will do.  More power to those who do the Polar Bear Plunge.  I love winter but I love it from inside my nice warm home.

I cant wait to see the long range forecast.  Have a great day!

Two important rules of thumb when talking about concrete and foundations:

1.  All concrete has cracks.

2.  No one ever steals concrete.

On a serious note:  I think that a concrete foundation on a solid foundation will have no problems with wide temperature variations.  IF your home is built on a bad foundation that settles or IF you have water that does not drain, you will have concrete & foundatin problems regardless of the weater & temperature.  Another issue might be cure times for concrete in these really cold days.  I think the cold would have a big impact.

But I'm not a home builder or a concrete expert.  We're loving these calm winds & sunny days, even if we are getting some cold temps.

M

Holmes524:

Thank you!  I hope it all goes well tonight and we get a lot of people to come in!  The more money the better!  I am the hosting coordinator at Bob Evans so I will be hosting this event!  I would love to meet some of you tonight, so come out and enjoy some great food and help out Special Olympics as well!  Here is some more info...

Bob Evans Community Fun Night
5:30-8:30PM TONIGHT
You MUST tell me you want to donate to Special Olympics for them to get the donation or just tell me you heard about this on the blog!
15% of your overall bill will be donated to Special Olympics.
The address is 1680 NW Chipman Rd. Lee's Summit MO

I hope to see you all out there tonight!

Thank you all for your support!

Jacob

I really hope that the long range forecast is interesting!

Also..if any of you have any questions about tonight, feel free to ask!

Jacob

Non weather related...but oil is down 8% this morning (about 4$ a barrel!)  It is down to $44.75 a barrel so far from $48.41 at open.

radman22 and MCSev,
Thank you for the information about concrete foundations.  I don't have any cracks yet, but I was afraid that such extreme fluctuations as we've been having might cause a problem.  Thanks again, and here's another beautiful winter day to enjoy!!!  It's a little chilly, but nice.
Edna

Argh..ever get through a long entry only to hit the wrong key and have it disappear?

Sigh.

Nick - good observations this morning.  I am going to research that a bit as I have noticed similar traits from cycle to cycle.

Bill - great obs.  You like many of us have come a long way in this blog.  You undersell yourself as your sat/radar/ob analysis is beyond even some meterologists out there.  Beyond the inhouse model, some are lost.  I find myself relying on your posts at times to save me some time in surface analysis.  LOL

*******************

control + C every once in a while isn't a bad idea;)

Jeremy

LOL Jeremy (& Scott)!

Gary,

I know an Occluded Front is when Cold air takes over a warm front, but can the opposite happen? I'm still kinda confused on Occluded Fronts, does KC have them much? How can you tell on a surface map?

I'm sure this has been answered before, but why is KCI the official location for KC? It seems to me like the data from there would be wrong as it is so far north. I realize both the downtown airport and the NWS site at Pleasant Hill would also be off, but why not the Sports Complex? It would seem to give a more accurate representation of what has really happened in KC.

Thanks,
Pat

andrew, since the weatherteam is not taking your question, i will take a stab at it if you dont mind.  

yes, occluded fronts work both ways, although are different in nature.  the less common of the two is a warm air occlusion.  which is where the overtaking air is cooler than the warm front(just like in a regular occlusion), but the air ahead of the warm front is cooler than the air behind the cold front.  this doesnt happen often here.  it happens in the pac NW regularly, and in the south eastern u.s. near the appalachains during the winter time a lot.  think of areas with distinct maritime and continental airmasses.  

the more common, cold natured front occlusion is just what you said: when the cold front overtakes the warm front.  this is quite common, especially in our part of the country, and especially especially common/important in the spring time.  an occlusion indicates where the warm and cool air collide with the dry line.  this is the triple point my friend, the most dangerous area of a spring storm for rotation.  as far as winter time setups the occlusion isnt as big a deal normally, but can lead to quick icing situations from what i have seen...although, an occlusion in your area usually means that precip is about to end.  

the closest thing to an occluded front we have seen this winter was during our last wild weather event that included the bow echo and ice storm.  as the low was approaching our area a warm front lifted up around to just south of the highway 36 cooridor.  the cold front came blasting in and intersected the warm front creating an occlusion around where i am located up through about st. joe.  we experienced heavy rain with very little lighting and just a little thunder-no wind, and with temps falling to around 30.  we had a heavy icing event whereas people south to around OP and such experienced a bow echo along the cold front where the warm front was still to the north-putting the southerners in the warm sector.  

I agree with Pat.  I've never understood why our official observations come from a place that is more than 20 miles from downtown Kansas City.  It's also in a Plains area and seems to get more wind.  Also, north of the river, so it doesn't see alot of the T-Storms etc, that seem to follow the river basin.  (That's just a personal observation, nothing based in scientific fact.)

Back on topic.  I'll be watching Gary tonight and reading this blog and lrcweather.com later.  I'm looking forward to understanding the long range forecasts.  So sorry I won't be able to make Jacob's fundraiser, it would have been great to meet some fellow bloggers.

pat, weather stations are almost always at airports.  you can thank the u.s. armed forces for that.  no one took weather stations seriously back in the day-only having them in major cities.  because of that, it was difficult to ascertain the location and strength/how fast storms were coming.  enter the air force, who started reporting from all their bases.  the trend continues to this day.  

i agree that kci is further from the core population than other places like the sports complex, but KC is an anomalous city in the sense that the majority of the population grew south and/or east from the main city...most cities grow to the N and then W.  so its all you southerners who are to blame for the location of the reporting station! you all missed the memo that you were supposed to settle north of downtown-not south.

Hi pvt_murphy,
We almost bought a house not far from MCI, but the guy under house arrest complete with ankle monitor kind of soured it for us. When the husband asked which I like more Parkville or Lee's Summit, I picked Lee's Summit. Haven't regreted that choice yet. Coming from CA I knew nothing about either city. I did not even have time to do research as the company my husband works for now, flew us out for one weekend to look at houses. It was crazy but we did end up buying a house in that one weekend. I have not regreted the decision, especially when the MO river floods in Parkville or I hear about tornados heading towards it. So count my family as one of the people who did not get the memo about moving N of downtown, not South.
So just sign me, happy to be memo-less :-)

For all of you out there who might think I am offended with what pvt_murphy said, I am not. My response is typed with a smile on my face. I did find what he said about the U.S. Armed Forces starting the weather stations at airports interesting. I did not know that and I found it interesting.

i find nothing wrong with what you said.  i have never been to lee's summit, but given its population there must be something drawing people there.  i personally like parkville, although it does flood.  its a beautiful area with the bluffs and the lakes though.  

We are just hours away from the Community Fun Night at Bob Evans here in Lee's Summit!  I hope some of you will be able to make it out there tonight!  I look forward to meeting some of you!  Remember it is from 5:30 to 8:30PM tonight!  There is more info above!

Thank you all for your support!
Jacob

Thanks, pvt!

So about what time will you update the blog?

-------------

It is going to be a while as it is taking a long time to write this up and prepare to put it out there.  I am guessing it will be later this evening.

Gary

thanks pvt_murphy. I had always wondered and now I know.  I'll remember the memo next time I move. lol

a big let down of a winter so far in the Overland Park area... Barely any snowfall, only one decent snow which didn't lead to a snowday.

I am looking forward to your forecast.   Jeff has given some hints on the LRCweather blog, but I bet you will be a bit more bullish.    My gut says we will continue to miss the big storm as they get going to the east.    The cold temps will be the main story again with continued wild swings with the passing of strong cold fronts.     We really never had a big storm come that close to the area except to the North and esp NE of the area.    No big storm for Wichita, Topeka, Springfield and other areas that would suggest we did not just miss the surface feature, but the upper level dynamics were not clicking.       While we have a much better chance than those to the west of KC, the eastern ridge will limit our ability to get a storm going for this area.    The classic 4 corner low pressure is always our best snow chance, and it has not been setting up.

Joe

So, we've just ended the first week of January and we're still seeing the LRC set up- I guess....  We're at least 1/3 through winter and the thing is still just coming to perfection.  What is the deal? Are you going to hang in there until something happens and then lay claim to it?  
A new forecast is coming soon.......To me, that means the "team" is having problems with the LRC.  The winter forecast came out over a month ago.  
Now, Gary's going to say that we've just completed two cycles and Dah, dah, dah.
The fact is, if it was working in early Dec. , it should be working now.
If the LRC is working, then there shouldn't be any need for an "update".  It should be in place.  

in all fairness garyb,  back in the day we were unable to pickup on it at all until sometime in December.  

It's not just the air force...it's also civilian aviation that causes the "official" stations to be located at airports. The people flying planes have much greater need for accurate, detailed weather info than your average person, even weather-obsessed people like us.

Of course, if you don't like KCI because it's so far north, we are lucky to have airport observation stations in Olathe (2 of them), downtown KC, and also to have good observations from the Pleasant Hill weather office.

GaryB
You should know by now that the theory is the cycle does not setup till late October and it takes at least 1 or 2 runs to feel confident about a forecast that is 2 months or more in advance.    This will be the real test of the winter forecast, not the one he did in November.

GaryB I know the LRC can be confusing because it's very complex.  The team has noted for several weeks that the patterns were still setting up.  There is a really great description of the set up on www.lrcweather.com  Reading that may help explain why they are still developing the pattern for the future.  Hope it helps :)

yes rdub, the civilian force accounts for its fair share of stations as well.  cant leave them out.  where i grew up in FLA it was all about the military airports as the official stations.  Air force reserve recon for tropical systems is located in east central FLA as well.  also, there might be as many if not more air force meteorologists than broadcast meteorologists.  i dont know for sure, but i know there are several of each.  I  could watch the shuttle launches from my pool...great place.  too bad there are mosquitos the size of silver dollars that can bite you on new years eve.   its just not right.

slow weather times...

How can we possibly be 1/3 the way through winter? Did winter not just start late December? Winter in KC can sometimes go through March....

Here in Hutchinson we reached 59 degrees. What a great day for a car wash or even golf!

Not to sound harsh Gary, but if we don't get a lot of snow real quick, I predict your forecast will be a major bust.

He was writing this (He said) arond 3:30, even with breaks this must be a LONG blog.

He was writing this (He said) arond 3:30, even with breaks this must be a LONG blog.

Well.... my thought is that the LRC is right on.  They only concern is for the snow lovers, there has been plenty of cold air.  Some nice days, and winter weather all at the same time.  
ONE WISH, it snows when we are all not asleep!  I like watching it that is the fun of it.  I hope something could just change a little for us to get a significant snowstorm, you know the 6-8" type.  I am just not seeing it this year with the over all pattern.  
I know winter will be back in full blast as the LRC predicts first part of February, the end of January perhaps.  We had snow on the ground in Springdale KS/McLouth Most of December.   But there were three separate snow events, one which produced about 3", one that produced 1.5" and finally the night of the tornado watch, the hailstorm followed by 1/4 minor ice storm and 1" of snow the next evening.   When this repeats later on this month into February I sure hope some things pull together for some more exciting snow totals.  Seems to form right by us and then just demolish the east coast, west coast  everytime.  February is usually a snowy month, but I think something is going to have to change before we actually see a major snowfall.   Most of important, during the day, so we can actually watch it.  I dont want a disaster area, but some bigger than 1.5-3" would be great.  
Such a strange LRC pattern this year, so energetic , so repeating..........just isn't materialized over us though.  I hope we get a good one.  We are above average on snowfall for December, behind in January so far by a trace.   I guess we will just have to see what happens, even the LRC is correct and in place, something could still happen as new months approach things could become more potent in the same cycle.  I guess we will just have to wait and see.  Arctic blasts are a given though!

Gary, you need to call me later. I told you earlier I am going over the past
few years. I think I figured out the August to October piece.
Doug

Here is the bottom line guys and gals, at least with everything that I have done research wise.  The LRC has been dead on.  We knew in November that we weren't in best spot to see big snows.  Gary's winter long forecast and mine as well had the big snows across the northern plains into the Great Lakes.  This is exactly what we have seen.  You have to put yourself in our shoes and our thinking on what we are looking for with a winter long forecast.  We knew this pattern was going to be very active which it has been.  Just the big snow tracks have stayed to our north.  My thinking is that there are about 8-10 winter storms for this whole season that could give us some good snows.  My thinking was that 70% of these would be small storms, 20% moderate storms and about 10% big storms.  Our thinking is that at least one has to come together and do something major.  I think we all still feel there is a good chance of that happening.  All we need is a few more small ones, a moderate one and maybe a fairly large storm and the mark will be hit.  We know the small ones will hit and probably moderate storm or two.  Even if we don't see a major storm we will still get fairly close to this mark.  If we get one major winter storm, the mark will be hit.  I just don't think people understand how hard and tricky this forecasting is.  The bottom line is everything is right on target.  If the winter forecast should come close to the mark, I guess time will tell.  Just remember that there are very few meteorologists who do a winter forecasts based on a pattern.  Most forecasters just take what the national weather service says and sticks on the tv and says "here you go"
Doug

I think we will see are 19-25 inch snowfall total at KCI.  It adds up.  Even the small ones.   We are pushing 7", above normal and are most potent weather is to come as we deepen into winter.   We just need the jet streams to merge.  
I think we could be in for some wild spells this spring though.  
I do believe as Gary has mentioned there will be major icestorm to the south sometime this year in our storm pattern.  
The LRC is now apparent and has taken a while to get nailed.  It was a very strange transistion this year and complex to say the least.  I believe the southern portions of the viewing area not seeing as much.  Im on the northern frindge of the active patterns.  But even thought he LRC exists, later winter months seem to become more potent.  So lets hope something big forms in our next active period.  There will be an arctic outbreak which will probably have everyone ready for spring after that.  Its going to be POTENT!

I think most people do understand how hard and tricky it is to forecast the weather around here, especially long range forecasts. That's what opens the door for a lot of the criticisism the forecasters get, just my humble opinion...

Please excuse me Notes, "criticism"!

Greg,
I think your opinion is correct.   We seem to be the butt of a lot of jokes, I think I have heard them all.  If we didn't have the passion for it we wouldn't be this far along on the the LRC.  We have so many things we still need to figure out.  Each year we get a little smarter on how the LRC works.  This is so exciting for all of us involved.  

Doug, if you guys knew in November that we wouldn't be in the right spot for a lot of snow, why didn't you share it with us, instead of predicting above aberage snowfall for the season?  And if you still think we are not in the right spot, why are you still predicting a major snow.  Can you show me where Gary forecasted heavy snow for the northern plains and Great Lakes?  It appears to me he forecasted average precipitation for what has been this year's heavy snow belt.  I can understand why you guys might want to spin the results in your favor, but you can't just make stuff up.

ok, im prepared fo rthe forecast now. ;-)

Doug-Garys map on the winter forcast showed us in the above average zone for precip not the northern plains. But as he mentioned the lrc was still not completely figured out yet and would be amended. Now that it has been solved I think this next forcast for feb. will be important for the lrc to take the next step.

Jimmymac,
Yes we where on the edge of above average precip for the winter, that still does look like the case.  However, that doesn't mean it will be all snow or ice, it could also be rain.  In November we had a pretty good idea what the pattern was going to look like.  Now we know exactly what the pattern is going to look like.  I am pretty sure I remember hearing Gary say the northern plains would get hit over and over again.  I watched his forecast online and I thought he did a great job.  Making stuff up, that I just don't see.

95rred,
Yes this forecast is important.  We always see little twists in the pattern, that are the little things we are trying to figure out that could change how a storm system decides to develop.  Like I mentioned earlier, each year we get better and better.  Next year we will be able to forecast better than what we have done this year.  I think Gary and team have done a great job so far.
Doug

ITS lookn LIKE THE brunt of the ARTIC AIR NEXT WEEK WILL STAY TO ARE EAST!!!!!!!!!! and it looks like mabe a warm up into the week after that!!!

So Jan 20 should not be looked at as a time frame for any winter weather now? it will be later, like the first part of Feb? I am just wondering because I have some field trips planned with the Northeast Ks schools for a medical career day between Jan 20 and the later half of Jan.