NBC Action Communities

Gary:

Well, the Get Smart Affect has hit once again LOL!!! We passed each other again in cyber space!! The Get Smart Affect is as reliable as the LRC LOL!!!

It will be fun to track this front today-doesn't take much to get me excited!! LOL

Have a great day!!

Bill in Lawrence

Here is Bill's comment that we just missed from the last entry:

Gary and Jeremy:
Good Spring/Warm Air Advection morning to both of you!!! Currently sitting at 40 degrees this morning under clear skies-very nice out this morning and it should be a very nice morning and man you can just smell the spring in the air this morning!!

I have made a decision: I am going to try and leave the coming active period alone for a spell and concentrate on what we have coming down the pike the next 7-10 days. I was thinking that man I have become so caught up with what may happen 2 weeks from now that I am going to miss what we have now. Kind of like Ferris Buhler saying you need to stop and look around because you just may miss it LOL!! While for sure this part of the pattern does not give us a lot of precipitation, there are still going to be some very strong fronts that can’t be missed-bring em on!!!! LOL

In that vein, a few random observations this morning that as always I hope make some sense!!

1. Looking at the surface charts this morning the front is still pretty ill defined-it appears the true wind shift line is still in NW Nebraska and the surface low is I think in NE Nebraska and  but the real colder air is even lagging behind that somewhat. There are some teens and single digits in Montana this morning. Will be interesting as always to follow these today for sure.

2. If I am looking at them correctly, the models have the front coming through early afternoon but like one sees on the surface charts, the cold air does kind of lag behind. It does not appear we will have the one hour 30 degree drop this time but more of a 5-6 hour drop kind of like last Saturday.

3. Looking into early next week: I wonder if the GFS is not a bit too vigorous with the arctic front for our area-not doubt we are going to have some cold temperature early to mid next week but I just wonder if the Euro does not have a bit better handle as it shows us just really getting a glancing blow and the core of the cold air heads much more east and just south. I think the GFS has that high sliding down into Central Missouri but the Euro has it further east. The Euro makes sense to me based on the pattern we are in and for the fact that looking at the surface charts this morning, the core of the cold air is now in Manitoba not Alberta and Saskatchewan-Manitoba is not our best source region for a true arctic out-break. Will be interesting to see for sure as there is no doubt we will have some cold temps. But east of here should bear the brunt- I think??? LOL!!

4. Another interesting point about early next week: if you go back and look at mid to late November, the core of the cold air was in Eastern Canada-not Western Canada. We had glancing blows in November in this part of the pattern and we should have glancing blow now as well-its just that the glancing blows will feel a bit harder as we are in January!!!

5. One small look ahead-I just can’t resist nor can I resist making myself look foolish!! The 0Z 10 day GFS and Euro have the same overall pattern as we did around the 11-28-the upper level maps are very similar-the models in the longer range are still throwing out subtle hints of the active part of the pattern
developing!!!! Or, I have some serious egg on my face right about now!! LOL

6. Finally-man that long wave to our east is just money this year-watching that surface low early next week just explode on the models as it hits around Kentucky-I am officially putting out an APB for that secondary weaker long wave in Oklahoma-I hope like the Offspring it will come out and play when the active pattern comes back through!!!

Well, it will be fun to track these fronts over the next few days and who knows maybe we will get surprised and one of the vorts. At the 850 level will surprise and dig a bit farther south or maybe some southern energy will be able to undercut this flow ala Thanksgiving weekend-prospects are not good but there is always hope!! No doubt this NW flow part of the pattern is so dry-trying to take clothes out of the dryer right now is an exercise in basic electricity!! LOL But hey, it is the weather we have for the next 8-10 days so time to dive into it and see what happens!!!

Have a great day and as always, thanks for reading!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

It's so funny because I posted just one sentence just to catch your comment.  I will cut and past your other comment into this one.  How about that?  I havent' even read it yet since I am updating the surface map which is amazing.

And one more comment on your other post that I attached.  The Euro was the first model to predict nearly a 1060 high from Monday and Tuesday blasting our way.  It is not fair to the GFS to just take the latest run and make a comparison.  The GFS has outperformed the Euro again this year in my opinion, and the love for the ECMWF is just not worthy.  Maybe those two models should play for the National Championship.

Gary

I know some folks don't like these temp swings, but every warm day we get is one less day of cold where I don't have to wear full coveralls; and moves us closer to balmy spring days.

What are the forcasted winds speeds when the cold air blasts in? Do we have a time frame when the front is suppose to arrive?

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You live south of here so probably mid-afternoon(3ish).  Wind this evening/tonight will likely be 15-30 mph.

Jeremy

It's another nice day in Kansas and then BAM back to reality, :o) Is the chance of a ice storm this winter diminishing now....I do not recall seeing that as one of your thoughts for the long range forecast. It would be nice if we got by without one of those this year. Enjoy the day all you spring lovers....it's back to a winter lovers dream tonight.
Monica
Pleasanton

gary...dont blame it on the coaching.  OU isnt used to playing teams with that much size/strength/speed.  i sincerely doubt that OU played a team this whole season whose defense was half as good as FLA's is.  Tebow!

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Utah should be #1.  The great SEC didn't fair too well in that BCS game.  Guess the size/strength/speed arguement of the SEC didn't hold up there.  I'd still like to see a playoff, then there's no arguement.  Tebow is great!

Jeremy

Maybe those two models should play for the National Championship.
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The NAM feels it was snubbed out of the BCS Championship.

back to weather- i see both fronts on the METARS page i believe.  it looks like the modified airmass has overtaken most of NE, with the exception of southeastern NE.  and the arctic pool is spilling south along the MO river basin in north eastern NE.  

because of the proximity of the first wind shift line to us already i dont know if we escape the mid-upper 50's today, but it will still be a dramatic shift.  we will see, maybe the first cold front stalls out.

I like the changes I'm seeing om AWP!!! Can't wait for more! You going to have like a little schedule to follow by?

The Lee's Summit North ROTC is going to Snow Creek tonight until about 9 or 9:30.  What kind of temps can we expect up around Weston from about 5PM on?

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Probably 40s to start and upper 20s to finish.

Jeremy

So far this winter, I'm loving the lack of precipitation and the rebounding temperatures.  Keep 'em comin!  I can live with low temps at night as long as we rebound to 30+ degrees during the day.  Of course, 100 degrees, sunshine and no rain would make everything absolutely perfect ;)!
--deb

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Can't wait for a nice warm day in the 80s or higher!

Jeremy

Thanks Jeremy.  Also, how strong do you thing the winds will be?  Wind Chill temps...

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Winds will increase...probably 10-25 when you are out there.

Jeremy

hey...it winter!  Lets not talk about 100 degrees!!! =)

The front is inching closer.  The wind has already shifted to the north in Lincoln.  Lincoln has 42 and just 40 miles away in Columbus they have dropped back to 28.  Not a pretty picture there.  Hope all you Eskimos are going to be happy again later today.

Gary and Jeremy, at least in bowl season we can always count on the Big 10 champ to lose in the Rose Bowl...like clockwork....:-)

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That's okay...I witnessed the last Big 10 Rose Bowl victory in person in 2000!

Jeremy

Too bad the front is not 6 hours slower...I'd love to keep the warmish weather through this evening. Then it can cool back down.

wins against BYU and TCU in a weak conference with zero quality out of conference games wont get you to the national championship game no matter the system.  

wins against 3 previously number 1 ranked teams this season along with a difficult in and out of conference schedule is how to get it done Utah.  good win against bama...although they were still licking their wounds from the FLA beatdown.
i dont understand how you say the great SEC didnt fair too well in that game.  that SEC team held the highest scoring team in college football history to 14 points.  granted, thats because the D out west doesnt exist.  the goal line stands at the end of the first half prove how stifling the D is in the SEC.  

texas has no room to complain.  they lost to a mediocre texas tech team...which incidently got blasted by Ole Miss.

its already up to 48 here.  its warming quickly today.  i missed the last big temp swing last weekend.  i was in omaha for the weekend.  i like it there...the climate there seems about perfect for me.  although there was a slight icing problem which was tricky on their brick streets.

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Okay...no more football or I'll delete it...even my own thoughts:)

Jeremy

This has just been a weird winter. Not only have we seen hardly any snow, but we usually don't see one-day warm-ups return this regularly, at least I don't think so. At this point, I'm about to give up on snow and just say bring on spring and summer!

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I vote Spring and Summer too!  Although I know better, late January into February isn't going to be much fun for those looking forward to Spring.

Jeremy

I vote Winter,Winter, and more Winter!!

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I thought summer was your favorite season;)

Jeremy

At least by Februrary the days are starting to get longer. I think the short days bother me almost as much as the cold.

after feb. active period - the next one is end of march into first part of april what needs to happen in order to be cold enough for snow that late in winter? Can there even be a artic blast that late?thanks

I am going out and enjoying the weather today on the golf course. And I am not going to bring up football but how many days till opening day for baseball????

I am with Andrew!  More and more WINTER!  Like I have told Gary for the past about 2 years now...I just want 1 storm where I get 6" or more and I will be happy.  If I get my 6", then I will not complain anymore...lets see what happens.

The GFS is so interesting right now..need more time to analyze...