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All I know is it WINDY!!!!!

Question?
I have always heard that the middle of winter was Jan 20th.
Last night I believe I had heard you say on your broadcast that "we are almost through the first third of the winter."  I understand the middle of winter is the 20th depending upon if winter started earlier then usual or later so plus or minus.
(I was looking forward to the 20th and maybe a downturn in the winter)

What or when is considered the middle of the winter?

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I still consider the middle of winter when it is the true middle of winter.  Winter started on December 21st.  And, spring begins on March 20th.  So, this would place the middle of winter on February 4th.  Meteorological winter is considered the three months of December, January, and February.  So, the middle would be around January 14th or so.  O.K. bloggers, I am posting this to the main blog.  What do you think?

Gary

Cold no, is it?  Well I hope the Eskimo's in the KC region are happy this morning.  Here in McLouth it was 24.4 and has now cooled to 17.9 we have a wind out of the nnw at 11.6 gusting to 17.4  Didn't see snowflake one here, just as I expected.  The severe storm spotter classes will all be starting up in 5 weeks.  Now thats exciting news and not a lot of hype.  Give us a weather set-up like we had yesterday come April and we will have weather region wide.    The upper level jet is streaming from the sw at about 80 mph.  Things are going to be calm and non-exciting for quite a while.  Same old, same old.  Cold and no precip to even talk about.  If this was summer we would be in a serious drought.  But January is almost always cold and dry, so nothing out of norm going on here.

At first glance I read the title as "Saturday chili" and thought that sounded really good!  

I'm still intrigued about Doug's post that he thinks he figured out the August to October piece. Have you had the chance to talk to him yet Gary?

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Yes,

We talk quite often. And, we are on the same page with the development of the LRC each fall.  The August to October pattern is cycling but something miraculous still happens every year during that first part of October as the new "long term" longwaves become established.  The new cycle evolves and it is still a morphing from  summer into the beginning of the LRC.

Gary

Many thanks for the clarification! I won the dinner from my First Officer!
http://i88.photobucket.com/albums/k182/airshow_pilot/ORD_Winter09.jpg
Its just been horrible seems this year, my route takes me through ORD & PHL.
Youre the best!

Jeremy from WIBW is in today!

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Andrew,

Jeremy is in all weekend filling in for Jeremy Nelson!

Gary

As much as I enjoy these brief warm ups from the artic chill like yesterday, it is almost like a double edged sword...as I get spring fever and wish for spring that much more!!! Trying not to count the days to spring as I know there is still much winter to get through.  

Jeff

I agree with the meteorological winter.  Winter to me is when it's cold.  It doesn't begin getting cold (regularly) on Dec 21st, it begins in mid to late Nov, so it's always seemed silly that on Dec. 21st, we say it's the first day of winter.  By March 1st, I'm seeing some warmer days and hints of spring.

Hey Gary,

I think defining the middle of winter is nothing more than an individual's point-of-view, really.  I thought we were in the middle of winter after the last Arctic airmass plagued us. I also thought we were in the middle of winter in mid October, but I digress... ;)

So what kind of cloud cover are we looking at tonight? I'm hoping we get a good look at the biggest full moon of 2009!

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It will be completely clear. The full moon should just glow and be wonderful to experience.

Gary

I agree, meteorological calender is more correct.  And its not just cold today, it is flipping cold.  If you go out, you body flips and tries to go back inside.  Unfortunately some of us have no choice to go out.  We have animals and chores that require attention 7 days a week, 365 days a year regardless of the weather.  Worst part is, if it breaks and you have to fix it, you can't wear gloves and use tools very well.

Gary,

I consider the middle of winter here [the "dead of winter"] to be the 3rd or 4th week in January. After this time period, the sun angle and day length start the affect temperatures and precipitation type more readily. In my short time here [since 2005], the weather usually starts to show the very earliest signs of spring after February 15th. I recall 02/28/06 when it was 78 degrees. When I lived in Wisconsin, the middle of winter was the period between January 15th and February 15th. This was the period where we typically had the most severe or prolonged arctic outbreaks with fewer heavy snow storms. Often, [especially during the late 1970's and 1980's] it was too cold during this time period for major snowstorms. I heavist snowstorm I personally observed in Wisconsin during 31 years was on March 6-7 or after mid winter...

Bob

As to the middle of winter I've always figured that once the middle of February has rolled around the worst was over and Spring would be arriving in short order.

I do know for sure the mowing season last a whole lot longer than the non-mowing season.
 

on the snow showers next week is all the snow non accumlating or could we possibly squeez out an inch.

Yeah i think its interesting that the actual weather of a snowy season, severe weather season always comes earlier than when the actual season starts... I wonder what the weather is like in other places around the world, i mean i bet its not as weird and spastic as the weather here.

However, in years past... it seems that march snowstorms are not uncommon... but i havent seen one in a while, is there a chance for a big snow this march?

Thanks :D

We're starting to get a few peeks of sunshine!

Well technically Gary is right, just going by the calender, but I would go by the coldest ave. week of winter as the middle of "winter" since winter is associated with cold, and the coldest avg. week of the winter is when ON AVERAGE  the temps bottom out and begin their recurve, that is what I would call the "middle of winter" or if you don't want to argue against the calander... "middle of the cold season".
Well did see some snow flakes last night so from almost 60 to snow in St. Joe;)

I agree with Gary on the middle of winter being Feb. 4th.  Since I do my best, to maintain a good attitude about a time of year, that I don't particularly love, I always look forward to the middle, so I can start the countdown to Spring.

I realize that when March begins, it's still technically winter, but by the time March gets here, I'm so psyched for spring, that I consider ALL of March to be spring, therefore I'd have to say I think the middle of winter is in January.  Dea

I consider the middle of Winter to be the period our temps on average bottom out.

In my zip code is 10th to 15th January. I also see February as more of a spring trend month, it seems that most years February really tries to act "springish" rather than "winterish".

I was out in Council Grove (West of Topeka, South of Manhatten) on Christmas day, they had Iris's starting to pop out of the ground...

H.

I live near Turkey Creek and drive I-35 which runs along Turkey creek each day to work.  I have noticed that it is still flowing even on days when it’s in the teens.  In fact I don’t think I have noticed it being frozen yet this year and we have been down to zero.  I realize it takes colder temps to cause flowing water to freeze but I would think down around zero etc would be enough.  What kind of conditions do we have to have for it to freeze?

Thanks,
Andrew

So whats up with this disturbance coming in on Monday...seems weak.  

I have always considered the middle of Winter the week when we have the coldest temperature averages.  That would be this week, January 10 - 16 when the average high is 35 and the average low is 16.  After this week, our average temperature start to go up.  Bring on Spring!

Don't mean to ruffle any feathers, but I'm doing an LRC reality check.  If you go anywhere near 52 days ago from this Thursdays forecasted day of the season, you'll find we were above temps on Nov. 23rd.  The closest "front" was 46 days ago and even that was average.  
Mid winter on average is Jan. 17th with -2.3 where we reach our average low temp.

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Gary B,

Reality check:  Almost exactly what happened in November!  Amazing.  The weather pattern is so related to Novebmer, and it is our interpretation of what happened then to what is happening now that is dead on!

Gary L

I just went to Spin, you should go to the new one, it's yummy pizza! High today of 27 degrees. My middle of winter is always in early January although thats not near correct.

For me, the middle of winter is just the middle of cold and more cold! I will make a point to go outside tonight to check out the full moon. It was a beautiful, clear blue sky day out, if only it had been warmer.

Greg... I think he's just proving a point. The trolls are always out in Winter...

Personally that drawing is pretty impressive, it covered an entire wall.

Awesome view outside of the moon tonight folks, it's pretty bright, so grab some shades! :)

H.

The full moon is awesome, sometimes its nice just to stop and take a look around and appreciate what we have, thanks for the reminder hippy!

Turd... Yeah they live under bridges and don't see enough of the world to understand what's been achieved by people. So yeah... you're a troll. Posting on a public forum that some kids work "sucked", something they put effort and time in, and are likely to be proud of that work, was uncalled for. Obviously Gary enjoyed it too, he posted it.

Greg, glad you liked the moon tonight. It's pretty bright, tried to take a few pics, but I dnn't think my poor cam couldn't handle it. I may try cleaning them up and posting later.

H.

As I thought, Turd was apt'ly named...

Hmmmm, good answer, Gary. Am I missing something, though? Is there something significant about the middle of winter, whether it's meterological or calendar?

MikeB, the only significance I can think of... we're closer to warming up! :)

H.

So when exactly should we expect the artic blast? And is it going to stay cold or warm up like 2 days later like has been the senario the past 3 weeks?

Chfs327, I remember over the summer you confessed to being Turd Fergenson also. so your not fooling me. I know your the same person. and yeah maybe it's cold for me to "turn you in" but that was not cool what you were saying about the drawing. Learn how to hold back your tongue(or in this case fingers) when you feel the urge to be rude. sorry to kill your fun, but it's not funny.

Good beautiful morning to the weather team!!!

Currently sitting at 22 degrees this morning under crystal clear skies-this was mentioned several times last night but it is worth mentioning again-the moon was just spectacular early this morning!! If there had been some snow for it to glisten off this morning it would have been even more so but that aside man it was just awesome this morning!!

A few random thoughts this morning that as always I hope they make some sense!!! Hope being the key word to the situation!! LOL Whatever the case, I am probably going out on a huge limb here that will most likely snap!!!

1. Today looks to be a pretty nice day-looking at the surface charts we have a westerly flow this morning so maybe a bit of a Chinook affect today-combined that with the developing surface low to our NW we should have warmer breezes today-I think??

2. The next 48 hours are going to be really fun to track and see how everything comes together. While it appears things are kind of developing right over the top of our heads and that points east and northeast of here will feel the full affects of this and more so Lawrence looks to really be on the far western edge the models do seem to be putting a bit more qpf for tomorrow.

3. Looking at the 6Z GFS it looks like the front/wind-shift line comes through around noon tomorrow but the really cold air lags a bit behind the front. If I am looking at the soundings correctly (a huge if!!!) most of the qpf on the GFS come while we are above freezing. However, it does appear (especially just east of the metro and again Lawrence is on the very western edge) that the models are showing a bit more moisture for tomorrow so it is something that will be fun to watch!!

4. Beyond tomorrow, it looks like this NW flow is giving us some fun events to track this week in two very strong cold fronts. Again, in this part of the pattern east and northeast of here will really reap the benefits (well, benefits if you like cold and snow) but we are going to be affected for sure!! Big limb here: this week is really not surprising: if one looks back from, around November 18th-November 23rd we had two pretty strong cold fronts in that time frame as well. This week will be more noticeable as we are in January and there is so much more cold air to work with but the writing was on the wall in mid-November. I think I just heard the limb crack!!! LOL

5. I am trying not to look too far ahead and enjoy the weather we have now-I mean honestly, there have been winters when I would have paid good money for fronts like we have seen this year-but I just can’t help myself!! Limb number 2: I think that the GFS and Euro both in the longer range are really beginning/honing in on the development of the active pattern. Both 0Z runs this morning are showing a polar vortex diving into the NWT in the end of January and they both been hinting at this for a few days. The GFS is also in the really long range showing the trough redeveloping in the SW. I think this is what I am seeing?? There goes the limb…….

Ok-I think I have put everyone to asleep enough this morning!! LOL I hope there is at least one kernel of sense in what is probably mostly gibberish from a hobbyist!!!

Have a great day and as always, thanks for reading and providing such a great place to learn about the weather!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

It is just fascinating as we watch the transition in the pattern to the more active and stormy one due in later this month.  In the mean time, yes it will be fun this week. Hopefully Monday's precipitation will be in the form of snow, but I have seen rain on the southwest side of Alberta Clippers with cold thickness values before, so we will see.

Gary

The moon was so bright last night, it looked like 5 or 6 in the morning at midnight! I fell asleep at a party and when I went home I started to do my morning routine until I saw the clock! LOL!