Happy Sunday afternoon everyone,
Here is a quick update. Look at the 18z NAM's forecast of the 850 mb temperatures and flow valid when we think there is a chance of snow on Monday morning. Temperatures are well above freezing all the way into Iowa at this point, but you must remember that the layer isn't saturated. Look at the map:
So, even if we have a quick band of precipitation on Monday morning it looks like it will be rain or a mixture more than snow, unless it lasts for longer than 30 minutes and the column would then saturate. The chance of it lasting more than 30 minutes seems slim at best right now. It is something we will be tracking early in the morning. And, then there is another cold shot heading our way for the afternoon. This is forecast problem #1 this week. We will go into the other challenges on Monday. The bottom line is that we are still in the wrong spot for any significant precipitation.
Previous entry below:
Good morning bloggers,
The full moon is setting in the west and a rather tough week for forecasting weather begins today. There are Arctic fronts lining up with fast moving disturbances that could bring us some brief precipitation events beginning on Monday. Monday's precipitation event is one of the more interesting of the season for various reasons.
- Warmer air will try to surge in just as the chance of precipitation arrives
- It could be rain, sleet, snow, or possibly all three types, but only for an hour or two
- We probably won't know for sure until it is right on top of us Monday morning
- A strong cold front should blast in Monday afternoon
So, this is Monday's situation. Then you have Tuesday and Wednesday where another even stronger front is approaching. There should be another warm up ahead of this mid-week front. It is going to be a very challenging week for the weather forecaster.
Have a great Sunday. I will update the blog later today.
Gary