NBC Action Communities

What a dream that is for snow lovers!  While I don't miss the bitter cold of MN, I do frequently miss the snow I enjoyed up there and they have had - like you said - quite a dream season for all snow-related outdoor activities.  Skiing, snowshoeing, skating, etc...  I sure miss those down here.

Do you still feel we'll have above average precipitation this winter?

--------------

Notes,

I highly doubt it, but it will depend on the active period due in next month.  It barely performed enough to bring us to just above average here, but if you look how dry it is southwest of us it brings concerns.  I think it will produce that one wet storm, and a few others that will at least get us closer to average.

Gary

And I forgot to mention:

CONGRATULATIONS Brett - wow - what an incredible feat!  It is an incredible achievement simply to complete a half marathon or marathon, let alone both - way to go!  Now comes some well-deserved rest and, of course, lots of great food...you've earned it!

-------------

Brett will be back to work on Wednesday! 

Gary

Well Kevin Lawrence can keep that snow.  When I was stationed at Minot AFB that stuff was a serious headache.  Couple that snow with below zero temps and a constant 20mph+ and I can tell you right now winter is no fun.

Can you imagine trying to remove that snow in ND without a snow blower?  While spring will be welcome to those who dislike the snow and cold, those folks in North Dakota who live in flood-prone areas will have to contend with a high probability of flooding when the weather warms and all that snow melts.

I'm sticking to my prediction of 15 inches of snow or less at KCI this winter, although the snow total so far this season is a bit higher (an inch or two) than I anticipated it to be at this point.  So the next time through the active part of the LRC may tell the tale (although the mid March-early April time frame could still bring some snow to KC).  If KCI can manage one 4"+snowfall amongst the normal 1-2" KC snowfalls then the prediction will be in jeopardy.

Wow... made entry then new blog!!
oh, well;)
it is kind of interesting that just sometimes looking at the advisories that the NWS puts out can really show the patterns overall structure... Like right now, we are in a wind advisory with BLIZZARD WARNINGS to our northeast, and RED FLAG WARNINGS to our south west, WOW that is  a lot of snow very cool pictures indeed, interesting that even though we don't have snow on the ground, with all of that snow building up to the north when the big cold air part of the  pattern does return it could be a doozy!
ALSO congrats to Brett on his achievement! That has to be a lot of hard work!!

Gary when you stated to Notes you highly doubted there would be above precip, does this mean you are changing your long range prediction?

Just ran out the 12z GFS and ran out the Euro...I love what I am seeing.  Just one run, so I won't get too excited, but it is fun to watch the models work on what things look like toward the end of the model run.

It is looking right to me based on the LRC.  Is everything perfect yet?  No..but the trends are looking right.

If you took a snapshot of our winter[met] thus far, it is below normal precip and above normal temps...but knowing that the active cycle is coming...I guess I have yet to hit the panic button.

I would certainly lean to much colder and a bit wetter in the next 6 weeks.

What, specifically, is it that you're seeing on the models that you like so much, Scott?  

Any meaningful specifics that you care to divulge?

Watching the EPAC and watching the movement of trough axes as result.  It is still a long way out in model world, and I expect some struggles as regime changes are tough for models when guidence is more climate based that far out, but there are subtle shifts trying to be shown that would indicate what we are expecting.

While blasphomous for some, I actually prefered the Euro in what I was seeing.

I found another tidbit of analysis out on the web that supports the same shift that has all the teleconnection, indexes, and other scientific jargon that also supports it, but since I cannot fully interpret the meaning, I haven't yet referenced it.

I have found more and more, there is so much more to learn in my efforts ongoing.  I think I can get the jist of most day to day forecasting, but some of the climate speak is still a bit over my head.  But then again, I would suspect some of it is over most everyone's head.

Ever read some analysis and wonder if it is written in a way where it just sounds more important than it really is?  LOL

----------------

Scott,

You don't need any teleconnections, or any of the other jargon.  The LRC, combined with the seasonal changes is the newest tool that we are using better each year.  Everything is cycling, but don't over analyze. The specifics will work themselves out over the next few weeks.

Gary

Gary:
You were off a little on your explanation on where the term "Alberta Clipper" came from.
"Alberta clippers take their name from Alberta, Canada, the province from which they appear to descend, and from clipper ships of the 19th century, one of the fastest ships of that time."
Per Wikipedia.  You were close, so I can't criticize too much.
At least your forecasting is better than your definitions. LOL

Just when I was feeling better about the wind gusts after reading the NWS site for Linn County, Gary posts over 40 MPH!

So is that over 40 MPH wind gusts for those folks north and east of I-70?

my mom just got home from picking up the kids from school and they said they saw lightning?!?!?

WOW....those are great pictures!! I am SOOOOo jealous. I need to take down my wind chimes since the wind is going to be picking up. It is already kinda windy in the Jo Co area....I just came from there. Thanks for the BD shout Gary....snow flakes will be nice too, the moon the last 2 nights has been gorgeous. Have a great evening.
Monica
Pleasanton

Wow!  Chicago has both a blizzard warning and watch in the forecast for separate events.  I don't think I have ever seen that before...certainly not around our neck of the woods!

(From NWS for Chicago)
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
12 PM CST TUESDAY...
...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Temps are falling here we are now at 35 in leavenworth I have seen some snowflakes mix in with our sprinkles from time to time it's also getting windy outside.

Never MInd is was a trick!! :(

Maybe someone can help me, the pictures and maps you put on the blog do not appear on my computer, do I need to adjust a setting to see pictures and maps?

Notes- Not sure if you are still around, but I found this interesting in the last few frames...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTWIDE_0z/ensloopwide.html

That pesky retrograde...more an more of the above members are starting to pick up on something that looks like this... [flow 12/7 - 12/9]

[for grins, look at member 20 at 384 hr..LOL}

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081209.html

Some of the members are already hinting, but watch that ridge really grow in the EPAC bringing the troughing over the West coast.

Might end up looking similar to this...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081214.html

My only question is this..how much of a player will the SE ridge be this time?  If it relaxes, my hope is the ULLs on the west coast will be able to eject cleaner this time around.  If too relaxed, might find them eject weakly and grow to our east.

Will be fun to watch either way.  Whatcha think?

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2009/01/07/3652011.aspx

I'm jealous of North Dakota's snow! It's about time we get our dream winter here. We are due!

Snowing big flakes in NW Olathe!

WOW winter here sucks..... I'm so tired of the ups and downs seriously I LOVE winter probably more then Gary I'm not gonna lie, but with this up and down crap I would just rather spring come. I want a big snow storm, but it really doesnt sound like we are going to get one after all. :( I'm moving to North Dakota haha (I wish)

We just switched over to light snow at I-29/Barry Rd. about 20 minutes ago...

Snowing here in Lenexa.  How long is this going to last?

snowflakes mixing in with rain here in Blue Springs

The grass/dirt is getting a little dusting in Olathe at my house!

87th and I-35 snowing quite heavily for about 15 minutes - gave us a quick dusting but it's already melting.

It's snowing nice big flakes here in Lee's Summit, by the 7 and Colbern. They look pretty out the window with the outside light on.

Our kids (3rd grade, 1st grade at Brookwood Elementary and 2 yo!) were wondering with these crazy temperature changes ... has the daytime high ever been lower than the nighttime low???

-----------------

Yes, many times this season alone.  On Tuesday we are going for a high of around 19 during the afternoon, but the next morning it will be around 32 or higher.

Gary

yes it has.

Very pretty snowflakes as big as doilles... well not that big, but just as pretty. Glad it will be brief. Horses are mad because I shut the barn completely up, but I want their body heat to warm it up a bit so I won't be so cold tomorrow morning. You'd be surprised at how many BTUs a horse can put out! Not too mention methane gas. :)

We just had a pretty nice snow !

 sedsinkc said:
Can you imagine trying to remove that snow in ND without a snow blower?  

Hey Sedsinkc,

My old man lives in Madison, WI and last year with their 100 plus inches of snow, his brand new John Deere snow blower couldn't throw the snow high enough over the 7 foot tall drifts alongside the driveway!  He ended up having to shovel much of it by hand towards the end, slinging it up over his head.  He is a lifelong Wisconsin resident less 10 years in the military, and even he had enough of it, lol!  I don't know how those people do it, or how I did it for 25 years before I moved to KC, but then again, I wasn't there for that record snowfall last winter...  I'd have picked Florida instead of KC if I were!    

I must say I was completly amazed to step outside and see it snowing. There really isn't anything on radar, yet there is snow falling. Its almost like its blowing in with the wind.

Well it sounds like that 1 or 2 big storms are not having much luck comming together at all this winter.I'm not giving up yet,all I really need is 2" at a time;)

If things don't come together in this next active part of the pattern I will have the worst snow removal season in 14 yrs.     :(

I have a question - my husband & I need to go out to Loveland CO, pick up a Shay Ford for my father in law and head back - we will drive out 1 day, spend the night and head back the next day - but don't want to get stuck in a snow storm with a trailer going across I70. What is our best window going to be? - thanks

ground in sedalia is covered with snow. roads and concrete surfaces are not. very interesting

Interesting how La Cygne is not in a wind advisory.

This happened last week too when the winds howled, but we were not included. I can attest that it is very gusty and cold outside.... just brought the dogs back in and the gate flung open right out of my hands. Nobody dawdled either... they headed straight for their crates.

Congrats to Brett Anthony, impressive indeed! And so far his winter forecast looks pretty good too... by the way its cold, dry and WINDY in Olathe.

**************

Except his forecast for the first 1" of snow...he had that around January 10;)

Jeremy

Winds are gusting at 40 and a bit over at times here in La Cygne. The chimney flue is rattling and the attic fan cover is creaking too. Guess I need to get a cover for the attic fan. This wind is INSANE!!! Where is our advisory????

Thurs/Fri does look quite chilly.  Poor upper midwest as they are going to get flat out COLD

What a night!! pretty good little snow, a dusting, and VERY strong winds turned it almost into a "mini blizzard" as it powerblasted the snow all over.  As it all started during the first wave of precip. it was weird as we had snow pellets and my thermometer at the time was still reading about 40 degrees!!! Now it is just flat out cold... the ride continues...

Gary and Jeremy:

Good chilly morning to both of you!! Currently sitting at a crisp 10 degrees under crystal clear skies-I know, I am a strange bird, but it is kind of refreshing out there this morning!! The air is so clean-kind of invigorating!! Imagine if we had a snow pack this morning....

Yesterday from about 4:00-5:00 was fascinating indeed. I was riding my bike home in sprinkles with increasing winds-30 minutes later  the wind was howling a decent snow shower was blowing-of course I had to go out an experience it!!! While it only lasted about 15 minutes it was pretty cool!!!

Ok-a few random thoughts this morning-will they make any sense is the million dollar question LOL-of course that has never stopped me before so here goes nothing!!!

1. Looking at the 9z surface charts this morning I think the surface high is still sitting just to our north and I did notice flags were still pointing south so we are still in the NW flow this morning. It is interesting though that areas to our west like Goodland and Western Nebraska are currently in the mid to upper 20’s. I was thinking that the high gets east of us by about 2:00 today and then the warm up will begin!! Man, the next 36 hours are going to be awesome to follow!!!

2. Looking at the models (if I am seeing them correctly) this morning (6Z GFS) it looks like we will warm up to about mid to upper 30’s tomorrow morning before the front moves through around 11:00 A.M. One thing for certain, it does not appear like the cold air will lag this time-it looks like it will blast through here and drop quickly!! Again, I think???

3. This is really something if you think about it-we will be warmer at 3:00 A.M. tomorrow than we will be at 3:00 P.M. today-nothing earth shattering and of course it happens here quite frequently but pretty cool none the less!!!

4. Maybe the quick warm up will throw enough moisture in here that we can at least squeeze out some flurries tomorrow kind of like yesterday-the 06Z GFS does show a weak surface low in Colorado…man I am really grasping at straws here aren’t I??? LOL

5.  I am really trying to just concentrate on the current weather because I want to stop and smell the flowers so to speak and also because I haven’t really had time to look at more than one run of models. However, man big limb break here, I think both the 0Z GFS and Euro this morning really showed signs of the active pattern developing. Both show a decent ridge developing in the Gulf of Alaska and a flow developing here directly from the NWT of Canada. This is only the 0Z runs and one for sure needs to look at more than one run to see a future pattern developing but the 0z runs the past few days I think have been showing this. I am now falling completely off of the limb I just went out on aren’t I?? LOL

It is sure going to be fun to watch this roller coaster today and tomorrow!! It also to me is just awesome how the LRC just nailed this pattern. I for sure don’t have the credentials to really make this statement but this week to me really looks like November 18th-23rd (it has been nice to read others saying the same thing LOL!!) But it must be said again-it is the forecaster that makes the LRC work!!! Major Kudos to all of you on the Weather Team!!! You guys are Tight!!!

Have a fantastic day-Jeremy is this your last morning of getting up at 1:30?? Congratulations to Brett-awesome stuff!!! Wow that was a random sentence-too much PowerPoint creation on WWI!!! I think I will step away from the computer now…

Again, have a great day and as always thanks for reading!!

Bill in Lawrence

****************

Bill,

Nice thoughts this morning.  Hard to believe with all the dry weather recently the weather has still been pretty exciting. 

The 6Z GFS in my opinion did a good job of handling the pattern ahead.  The longer range showed the arctic air lurking near the U.S./Canadian border in the long range and then spilling down from time to time as storms move through.  The question will be how these storm look and how strong will they be when they near us.

This is my last morning filling in for Brett this week.  I'm ready to sleep more than 3-4 hours again:)  Back to normal for a couple of days, I'm filling in for Gary this Friday and next Monday though.

Have a great Tuesday!

Jeremy 

And, Bill, from Gary...I started a blog so early this morning, and then I see I should have slept in as you already came in.  LOL  I thought for sure that 5:20 AM was early enough to catch you but not today....

Gary