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Good Morning weather team!

Went from a high temp yesterday of 48 to 12 and have dropped all the way to 5 so far this morning with a N wind at 6 MPH giving me a wind chill of -5. Very cold morning, but sounds like temps are going to get much colder! Looking forward to the active part of the pattern coming back in terms of precip, This dry stretch has been a long and grueling stretch to wait for!

Bryan

I didn't know it was suppost to get down to 4 degress!

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Gary had 7 last night...and we've talking about a huge drop for a long time.  I'm not surprised:)

Jeremy

Hey Jeremy,
Even though the polar bears stench will be quite strong over the next few days to come, I think lawn chairs, shorts and a cold beverage is feasable next week. Though I take anything more than f72 with a grain of salt, I will go on an all-out "hopecast" to get me through these single digits. It doesn't hurt that it also fits this years' LRC to some extent.    

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There should be a decent warm up for a day or two next week.  Lawn chairs and a cold beverage may be in order:)  There have been a couple of those days already this month with highs around or above 60.

Kind of exciting that the active part of the pattern is showing up on a couple of long range models...right on cue!

Hopefully you can work inside on Thursday!

Jeremy

Gary look at that strong jet stream headed straight out of Canada south right over the rocky Mountains and then an abrupt turn to the east .  That being the ugly clipper.  I bet the puppies weren't to happy going outside this morning were they?  Hope they got the business done and back in before you froze to the ground.

Woke up to a frozen pipe in the kitchen this morning.  Not a good thing.

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That is too bad, about the pipe.  Good luck.  And, yes, Breezy and Stormy came right back inside after around 2 minutes....

Gary

Jeremy, its to cold to tease us with lawn chairs and cold beverages.  But I like it.  Bring on a good old spring time thunderstorm.  I'm waiting ya know.

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I'd love for some Spring t-storms!  A nice thought on a cold winter day.

Jeremy

Gary,

I know each year is unique with the LRC, but this winter has alot of similarities to 1995-1996. Just thought I'd throw that one out there and I'm hoping for one decent snowfall or atleast rain event before late February.

Jon

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Jon,

I will go and look at that year before I say anything, but I can pretty much guarantee you that it isn't even close on the overall pattern.  Let me look into it.  Where do you see similarities?

Gary

Wow that was some wind last night and it is soooo cold outside now. I hope Brett brings back some of that balmy Florida weather when he returns to KC. :)

So I can get prepared for the next blast - are the winds going to gust to 40 like they did last night?

Today I am going to cover up my attic fan since it was rattling away with last nights Blast.

Just a question about your forecasts - When do you consider your forecasts 'official'?  I know that weather changes so fast and that you are constantly adjusting and changing - but on the weather page at the bottom, you have the temperatures being 13 at noon and 19 at 5pm.  At the top, where it says today's forecast is shows 22 at 11am, 35 at 2pm and 35 at 5 pm.  Just a little confused as to what the weather team calls their 'official prediction' and how often do you change that?  

I do appreciate all of your hard work!  Your team is the best and each of you do a fantastic job.  I just saw that contradiction and was not sure why there is such a huge difference in those numbers and when those numbers were put up there and even who determined those numbers.  Hope I am not misreading something and asking a 'stupid' question.
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Apparently we have a problem with one of our computers. Jeremy is working on it right now.

This is why it is a great idea to actually watch NBC Action News. That will always have the most accurate forecast!

Gary

The weather page threw me off too.  I think the the top part labeled Todays forecast is syndicated content from some other source and the graphic below is Gary's forecast -- they are often quite different and I have found the graphic to be more accurate.

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Please use our text forecast that has a time stamp on it, or the forecast pages that are the one's we use on TV.  Those are the official weather team forecast:)

Jeremy

Congrats guys on again nailing the forecast based on the LRC!!!

Jeremy I'm with you on the looking forward to some spring time T-Storms!!!

Thankfully we haven't had to endure what those frigid and snow bound folks have been dealing with up north and north east of here, it can always be a lot worse.  

Jeff

Gary,

The similarities are not necessarily the surface features, you could access that alot more then I could and evaluate them. The similarities I believe is the variable temperatures and rather dry conditions in our region, along with the northern plains being blasted by system after system. (remember the Grand Forks flooding in 1996?I also remember a few very major pushes of arctic air  but also very quiet and mild conditions in between those.

For what its worth, and I know its just one factor, but I believe we had a la nina in early 1996 also and the Pacific Northwest kept getting strange weather.. It just seems familiar to me but maybe I just like drawing comparisons to years also..

**So, given the 50 to 53 day cycle we should expect a significant storm in the plains by January 23rd. **

Nooooooooo! I'm slated to leave for the Caribbean on that day!  No, Gary, no!!!

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It isn't a sure thing, and last time through the cycle the storm matured just east of us.  So, don't worry about it yet.

Gary

Gary, interesting information re the western ridge, its tendency to retrograde offshore this time of year, and the certainty of a trough replacing the ridge.  Had not heard this before (and have never taken a formal meteorology course), so into the cerebral repository of scattered bits of weather knowledge it goes!  Hoping this time through the active part of the cycle N Texas can get more moisture than fell with the prior cycle, although with 0.47" of precip so far in January (all fell as freezing rain and sleet last Monday), the home town of Mineral Wells has already received 0.38" more than it received in all of December.  Returning to KC on 1/30 or 1/31 and hoping the area between here and KC is between storms at that time.

That wind last night was bitter with a capital "B". It really took my breath away when I stepped out the door. I'm glad it's gone this morning. It's interesting that each cold blast we've gotten has been colder than the previous ones. Makes me wonder how could we will go this winter? I'm pretty much ready for lawn chairs and cold beverages by now, too!

Do you guys really think it's going to bounce all the way back into the 40s on Friday? I notice NWS only has highs in the 20s that day. Without snow on the ground I suppose it is possible to see such a quick warmup...

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It will make it into the 40s across most of eastern Kansas, but it depends on the timing of the warming.  That is strong warm advection from the west moving our way.

Gary

"Makes me wonder how could we will go this winter?"

It probably won't get any colder than what we get this week. This time of year is the true depth of winter. The sun angle is now rising so it's harder for it to get quite as bitterly cold in February as it gets in January. The arctic circle gains 4 hours of sunlight between January 12 and February 12....

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True Rdub...but some of the coldest weather I remember occurred the first couple of days in February of 1996.  That was cold!

Jeremy

reguarding the possiable storm around the 23rd "the last time through the cycle the storm matured just east of us" what needs to happen for this storm to mature just west of us? does the trough need to dig further west for us to be in the best position. And this time of year do the troughs tend to dig further west or not necessarly?thanks

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Not necessarily!  The most likely scenario is for it to form and mature just east of us as the pattern is still the same.  But, just a subtle difference and we could end up with a big storm here.

Gary

I'm with kcten81! I am flying out to Orlando with the family on the 24th. No snow or ice until after we leave! Please???

ITS COLD!

Not saying it can't be cold in Feb, especially if the arctic air stays bottled up north through Jan....but usually if you get a big arctic blast in January, it ends up being the coldest air mass of the year.

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I understand, just wanted to mention the coldest I remember.

Jeremy

I was just on a website which gives Ft. Leavenworth current temp as well as “hour-by-hour” temp and feel-like temp for the day.  They have Ft. Leavenworth at 3:00 pm temp as 27 degrees and feel-like temp at 19 degrees.  It will be interesting to see if they hit it.  I do not know their source for weather predictions having just discovered the feature today.  
Edna

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Edna,

A lot of forecasts that are point specific for smaller cities or towns from weather sites are very often computer generated.  Or a person enters the forecast for a few locations and then the computer fills in the blanks.

I still like our forecasts best:)

Jeremy

Well, I now have the Sore Throat and cough that's been going around our family.

My dad went to the Walgreens Clinic and it was not strep, it was Acute pharyngitis.


I start class at JCCC tomorrow.

We can have some really cold days in Feb.  It is not out of the question at all.  I can remember early Feb. 1989 when it got really cold with an arctic blast.  By the end of Feb., we start seeing highs well up in the 40s near 50.

Kristi

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Maybe this February will be like January and see highs in the 60s:)

Jeremy

I need to do some work on the Missouri River soon.  How many days of warmer weather are you expecting next week?

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I would say if the cold air over the Great Lakes doesn't send a back door cold front through the area we should see a couple of days around 50.

Jeremy

Jeremy, I still like your forecasting best, too!!!  Thanks for your reply, too, about the possible source of the info.
Edna

Yesterday we were in Florida and I knew it would be cold when we got in to KC but I had NO IDEA it would be as cold as it was. When we got on the plane they were saying it was 35 in KC--when we got on the ground it was 15 and the howling wind was intense!  What a shock to the 'ol system.  We were like--Toto, we aren't in Florida anymore!  Then our car battery was dead--- possibly from the cold? Oh, well, safe and warm here in the house now.  Not all that excited that it's getting even colder on Wed-Thurs. Ah, well, glad to have had the warm days in Florida!  Janet

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Thursday will be a good day to pull out the pictures from your trip and have warm thoughts!

Jeremy

Gary and Jeremy,

Talking about wild weather....
Since the blog discussion led to 1996....
I have a calendar from 1996. (I make notations of weather interest on my calendars)
On January 3 we had 2 inches of snow. The 5th we got 4".
Then on the 16th we dropped from 65 to 30 in ONE HOUR ! CRAZY!
And 2 days later we had a blizzard with minus 40 wind chills and 6" of snow. The next day (the 19th) the morning (actual) temp was minus 12 ! Then the next week we had 3 days with sleet and snow.
I don't have any "notations" of anything extreme happening for February, though.

Jeremy, were you in Wisconsin during Feb of '96? Maybe you aren't talking about the KC area when you said it was extremely cold?

I am ready for spring if we can't have snow to go with these cold temps !
The brown grass and bare trees are depressing ! :):)

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I was still in high school living in Minnesota.  It was either 1995 or 1996.

Jeremy

So Jeremy, just how cold is the coldest you remember?

this would probably involve a lot of research but I wonder if you can see a connection between very cold temps in Feb and (relatively) warm temps in January...and vice versa. To me it seems like the easiest way to get super-cold in Feb would be to keep the arctic air trapped up north during January...

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I can't remember if it was the first week of February 1996 or not.  But -32 I think is the coldest I remember.

Jeremy

Hi Jeremy,
I would love to see more winter days in the 60s. :)

Kristi

I'll take some winter days in the 60 as long as some RAIN comes with it.  It is gettting awfully dry around here!  Actually watered trees and plants on Sunday.  Sure was glad Monday was mild enough to allow the moisture to soak in and not just freeze.  
If any of you have pine trees/shrubs or new plantings from last  year you might want to water some the next warmer spell we have.  Otherwise the plants likely will die because their roots aren't established yet.
Just my "green thumb" advice for the day.

On the brigher side we could be in very NW Iowa where my in-laws live and just survived their second blizzard of the winter already.  They are just now up to -5 and winds are finally manageable.  Makes our 22 degrees seem balmy!
Jeff

New user but I would like to make a request of the weather team.  I know you guys like to claim accurate forecasts on snow storms and other events, but can you please try to focus more on the five counties that are on the 435 loop?  This is where the bulk of your viewing audience is, and its frustrating to see you concentrating so much on Maryville, Trenton, Chillicothe or all the other small towns really far away.  If you are predicting 4-6 inches of snow, and I end up with 1.5" while Maryville gets 6, your forecast wasn't all that accurate.  Not trying to belittle, just a simple request to focus more on the majority of the population. ******************* Welcome to the blog and we value your opinion. But I would really beg to differ with your statements. We put a huge emphasis on the metro area and provide the most accurate forecasts of any station or source in Kansas City. We also have viewers outside the metro that count on our forecasts each day. So we try to give the emphasis on the metro while also delivering the same accurate forecast to all other areas. Do you have an example for us, since I don't see where you are coming from? Jeremy

New blog from Gary