NBC Action Communities

Hey folks...is this fun or what?

"Return of Pacific NW Pattern by end of the month? Look like the pattern repeats!!"

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=cce6662fc7eb95a6d8fb7edab7ccce16&showtopic=185975

Before the - "this isn't talking about the LRC", um...I would argue it is semantics at this point.

;-)

...the theory is spreading....

My brother used to go to Morse Elementry! Then they built a much nicer school closer to his house that he swithced to.

What a cold day but actually the moves the chiefs are making actually made me feel good!!!!

Scott-- are you suggesting some of those "weathermen" might have egg on their faces??

I think so.....

Drum roll please ....

As promised (and back by popular demand).....the 2008-2009 LRC......watch as it returns winter to our part of the world, right before your eyes.....


;)

It's more than just semantics Scott...the LRC does not simply claim that patterns set up and re-appear during the winter and spring. That is a widely held view.

What makes the LRC different (and controversial) is the claim that the re-appearance happens at constant, defined intervals.

I went to Morse Elementary when I was in Kindergarten. 21 years ago. from previous blog I also am looking forward to spring thunderstorms. I hope we have some good ones. with so many Lows and Fronts nearby I think we'll get some decent shots in.

Here is the most recent CPC u-turn.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Where have we heard this before?

"THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS  
QUITE SENSITIVE TO HOW FAR THE RIDGE INITIALLY NEAR THE WEST COAST RETROGRADES  
WESTWARD. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS SHOWS THE MOST RETROGRESSION AND RESULTS IN A  
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE  
WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS TIME,  
THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS SEEMS TOO EXTREME WITH THE RAPID PATTERN CHANGE.  
HOWEVER, TELECONNECTIONS ON A LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IN  
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AGREED UPON BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS GENERALLY  
SUPPORTS A TREND TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL  CONUS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND  
FLORIDA DUE TO AN INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS, WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK  
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE FEATURING TROUGH  
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IF THE TROUGH DEVELOPS, AS FORECAST BY  
THE GFS-BASED MODELS, THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLE  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS."

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

Blah blah blah...must easier stated - its the LRC.  ;-)

Yes, everything is the LRC, as long as it mentions a pattern changing. No need for discussion, it's all semantics, it's all the LRC. Any pattern change is the LRC. Any pattern staying the same is also the LRC.

I agree Rdub..patterns are nothing new.   The first linked article talks about the retrograde showing ~ day 10, which would put it around Jan 24th which would be about the Dec 3-5piece.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081203.html

Start here and go a week in watching the transition of the pattern from the Great Lakes troughing to the Pacific troughing about the 13th.

I believe the author of the linked article to be a bit fast with his thoughts on timing, but found the second article referring to a repeating weather pattern with a consistent time factor interesting.

For grins, I posted the current CPC posting...how about comparing to this posted on December 8th

"FXUS06 KWBC 082033
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST MON DEC 08 2008

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 14 - 18 2008

TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTION OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR DAYS 6-10. MOST MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE BERING SEACOAST OF ALASKA OR
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE, AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE A WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THESE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. IN GENERAL,
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE MORE COLD AIR NOSING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT IT IS STILL QUITE STRONG. THE BELOW
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHOULD SUPPORT BELOW
NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS SHOULD
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN ALASKA, NORTHERLY
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONG RIDGE AXIS CALLS FOR RELATIVELY
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.  

Wow.

Rdub - its all for discussion...  And no, the LRC has been clearly defined in the pattern and the duration..so, while you may feel it is stated to be everything, it is documented otherwise.

;-)

Make sure to put some water out for the birds Gary! lol

Is that first thread link your way of saying you're God, Scott?  That thread starter writes a lot like you...


RDub - Of course the theory is everything!  You're just silly to think otherwise.  Although, perhaps you're like me and still waiting for a detailed *forecast* (rather than hindsight) based on it (something more than a strand of wide-ranging climatologically-likely scenarios that are certain to occur).

A Fantsay Storm for Jan. 23rd.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p60_264s.gif

Hey folks, with the really brutal cold coming in....

If you have outdoor pets, please make sure they are nice and warm, with extra shelter and bedding. This is probably the coldest air of Winter (I hope), and even though many outdoor pets have fur, it's not much help with a -20 wind chill...

H.

I vote for the fantasy storm and very cold!!!! :-)

It so warm outside!(compared to earlier!)

hippygoth - Thank you for reminding everyone to take care of their pets in these cold temperatures!

Gary or Jeremy, do you think this is the last major artic blast we will have this winter? ************** I say no. Jeremy

My horses and dogs don't know how good they have it. Horses have insulated barn with heated water buckets , soft pine shavings to lay in and the old horse has a very nice windproof/waterproof blanket; it's better than my winter coat. They will be tucked in tomorrow. And the big dogs are in the heated garage inside kennels with orthopedic beds and an extra blanket too.

Remember to make sure if you do leave your dog or cat outside that it has lots of hay or some other dense bedding and access to water. Animals can dehydrate quickly in cold weather too.

I filled up my bird feeders tonight and scattered some seed on the ground under shrubs so they can get some protection from the wind.

So I guess I am ready for blast #2 this week. Really looking forward to the balmy weekend.

Another Kansas City "source" said this afternoon that this will most likely be the last real blast of frigid air of this winter season, and the rest of the winter looks to be on a warming trend.

I really hope that this is not the case.  I hope more than anything that Gary is right and the coldest air of the season is still ahead of us...

------------------

Jacob,

I remember you saying the same thing last year.  The forecast is out there for the longer range.  You know what we have said will happen in February.  Blasts of cold will continue and as the stormy pattern returns we may still end up in the wrong spot at times, but the temps will keep going up and down.  I will still be surprised if it doesn't all come together for a big snowstorm next month.

I am not sure what source you are talking about, but just be patient.  It will warm up next week, right on schedule.

Gary

Gary,

Remember what I told you starting at the end of last winter and all summer long about my "gut feeling" for this winter season?  I knew all along that this was going to be a boring winter, but yet I went against my feeling at the last minute and bought the whole idea of its going to be an active winter here in Kansas City.  I forecasted 22" for Lee's Summit this winter and we have only had 9.6" so far.  I have a strong feeling that we will land up well below my forecast.  Lesson learned, I should have just stuck with my first thought this summer and forecasted the 16" I wanted to forecast.

Oh well, maybe next year we will get some more snow.  And I know Gary, your going to tell me that the winter isn't over yet and to be patient, but my patients are running out.  It's been now like 3 years in a row that we miss out and get a bad winter...and I am jsut about out of hopes.

Have a nice night.

Jacob

-----------------

Jacob,

Do you consider this Arctic front boring?  And, how much snow has fallen in Lee's Summit so far?  9 inches right?  You are right on schedule to get around 20 inches of snow or more.  Just relax.  This is the part of the pattern that was forecast to be calm.

At the same time, I don't really disagree with you.  This weather pattern is awesome from the Dakota's southeast to Chicago. Des Moines has started to get more snow, but just not here.  It really is not a great pattern for us. So, your gut instinct may have been correct.

Just remember the stormy part of the pattern is two to three weeks away, and there is also some potential for later next week.

Gary

Given the propensity for the lows to track to eastern Nebraska, I'm wondering if we might not have a pretty decent (in a bad way to many) spring for severe weather.  Of course I have no real weather prediction skills, but it seems to me that if lows are moving just to our north then we should be in the warm sector, like we've seen many times so far this winter.  Except for in the spring, with that warmth comes humidity.  Perhaps we will be in a solid spot where we can get warm front storms as it moves north then dry line and/or cold front storms as they sweep in from the west/northwest.  One can hope at least, particularly since this winter has in fact been exceedingly boring for a snow and ice lover.

Jan. 22-23 looks interesting...this also fits the 50 day +/- LRC pattern.  Didn't we have our first one inch of snow on Dec. 9?  That snow was preceeded by a warm-up.  Look familiar for late next week?

Warmth has made it to Lawrence and Topeka, 34 both places.  But here in McLouth 22 miles north of Lawrence its still 29.  Maybe its the altitude difference again.

Not happy with the cold but was glad to see some familiar kids in the photo from Morse.  That's where my kids go!  :)

Notes - Ha!  Nice tongue and cheek.  Your emotional plea is touching.  ;-)  As far as your thoughts on the forecast as it relates to climate norms, that is somewhat amusing.  Climate norms are factored in ANY forecast.  

Help me understand the hindsight forecasting out through Feb?  Is this some jedi mindtrick?  LOL.  The forecast goes week by week through the next few weeks.

Perhaps you didn't read it.  

It seems you have an issue with using past events as evidence of a theory.  Sure, if that is the only means, I have shared your opinion, but think we have beaten that topic to death and in depth on lrcweather.com in ways the LRC can be viewed.

Perhaps you didn't read it.

Based on this, I suppose all post processed analysis for operational advancements should cease.

But alas, it seems your last point is regarding the precision of the forecast.  Again, I find that interesting if in fact you accept any CPC forecasts or seasonal outlooks from any NOAA agency.  Perhaps a forecast is precise enough giving broad contour areas with percentages of above and below normal.  Probably as it may mention ENSO, it would suffice.

Speaking of ENSO -
www.usclivar.org/Newsletter/VariationsV4N3/Kirman.pdf
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v428/n6984/full/nature02439.html

If you would accept that, but not a more detailed forecast from the LRC, it leaves me guessing you are hung up on the method of analysis.  That is fine.  Be it the LRC, teleconnective analysis or tea leaves, the evidence is in the forecast.

All theories have limitations, even those you may consider meteorologically sacred.  

My point to the post was to show how others were using or claiming a method of a recurring pattern, that oddly is very close to the duration we have defined.  Clearly, we differ on opinion, and that is fine.

The LRC is a continued work in progress for more and more evidence.  It is an observational theory.  I wonder if early man argued about whether the sky was blue because there wasn't scientific data to support it.  

;-)