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I already have 10 on the thermometer in leavenworth so It won't take to much to get below 0. yuck.

It is already 16 in downtown Kansas City. I bet the temps will plunge more when the sun goes down. That wind was wicked this morning as the front rolled through. It's hard to believe now that it was almost 40 degrees when I woke up this morning!

I bet you Olathe Schools isnt gonna cancel schools

Gary,

Any new features this week on AWP? What are some features your working on?

5kckmartins, sorry I couldn't answer your post from the last blog on horses lying down. I had to go back to work and couldn't answer your post. But yes, horses lay down for 20-30 minutes at a time... especially if it is a nice sunny winter day. Anylonger than that and they could be colicing or have other issues. You'll usually see 1 horse standing guard while the other(s) snooze. And yes they snore too!

I just came in from doing chores. I didn't think it was that bad out yet. Guess my layers of Carhartts kept me plenty warm. Stay warm everyone.

No schools will be canceled because of cold, not just Olathe.  Here in KC, schools don't close because of cold.

Mentioned in another blog i watch, this statement seemed interesting out of the Seattle Area Forecast Discussion...

"...CERTAINLY TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH THE FAR EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE GFS RETURNS THE REGION TO THE SAME PATTERN WE SAW SET
UP SEVERAL WEEKS AGO...."

Perhaps fewer people are now not debating the idea of recurring patterns or cycles, but perhaps we should just focus now on the specific cycle?  

It is fascinating to see in different forums across the US how more and more references are being made to this upcoming pattern looking like early December.

Guess we will see if it does happen, and perhaps the debate will shift gears....

I teach in a suburban district that was closed due to very cold temps/wind chills a number of years ago.  There are legitimate concerns about children standing outside waiting for busses in the early morning hours.  It may not be likely, but with a wind chill advisory in effect. . . I don't think it is impossible that some schools may choose to close, keeping the childrens' safety in mind.

4.7 at 8 pm

My thermometer is broken, its set up to show on my computer when theres internet. Apparently I have internet and my computer dosen't know that. My guess is 9 degress currently.

BTW, Most of you preobably already know this by now but:

... WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY.

AN ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE WIND CHILLS TO AROUND ZERO. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TONIGHT... WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOVE 15 BELOW UNTIL 10 AM ON THURSDAY.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS... MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

It’s all about the buses. If it is too cold for the buses to run dependably, they will cancel school. However, I doubt it will get cold enough to make that happen… it would probably need to get to at least -5 to happen. But you never know…

how cold does it have to be to cancel school??

I drive a school bus and there is times when the schools will close due to extreme temperatures/windchills, not only is not safe for children, you have school bus drivers that are at risk to exposure and diesel busses that can potentially have the fuel gel due to extreme cold.

12.8 at 124th and state line in KS.

"The active part of the pattern is really still two to three weeks away, but it is coming.  This doesn't mean we will have it all come together into a major winter storm for us."

Sounds like you are backing off your confidence on 2 or 3 major storms  the rest of winter.   Did you just realize the pattern will likely not shift enough to put us in a favorable position for storms to materialize?

Thanks, Joe

--------------

Joe,

No, you are just reading too much into what I stated.  I still believe that it will all come together once or twice.  We just aren't in that favorable position. I can guarantee you that Chicago and Bismarck will get hit by three or four major snow storms during the next 6 weeks.  I just can't guarantee that we will.  I do think that it will snow another 1 to 11 inches across the viewing area this season, which is how much has fell during this last cycle of the LRC.  And, we can hope for more.

Gary

Wow 5 here in McLouth, well 5.3 exactly.  Anyhow, its cold and dry outside.  Not the winter some people wanted or expected.  But its our winter none the less.  January is historically the driest month.  I bet come mid to late Feb as the pattern moves just enough to the southwest we will get a storm.  for all those just waiting for it remember one thing, "be careful what you wish for, you just may get it".  For those who don't have to shovel it at home or work in it out on the streets or fields it probably is a desireable thing to have happen.  But if you work in it, its not pleasant.  Just think of all the government employees that have no choice but to work outside to save our keisters and protect our property.  Winter isn't that nice of a thing in my books.  Like next time you see a fire over the next couple of days, look at the icicles on the firefighters and their equipment and all the extra equipment and firefighters on the scene because the cold is bad and extremely dangerous.  OK off my soapbox.  We need warm weather and some NEW KC CHIEFS football!

The windchill plays a part in schools being canceled, I know in Blue Springs if the windchill is like -10- -15 they will cancel school because kids have to wait at bus stops..... So yes, schools could be canceled .

It's already -7 here in Waukee, IA (15 minutes west of Des Moines).  We've had a little over a foot of snow since Friday, but the temps are brutal right now.  School is canceled for tomorrow here and in most of the towns around here.  The low tonight is supposed to hit -17 and we're expecting a high of -2 tomorrow.  While I love the cold, I also realize that kids can't handle the cold while waiting out for the bus in these temps.  It's too dangerous for the little ones.  I don't mind this weather, but I don't want my five-year-old waiting to get into school in this weather.
 

DavidMcG, it's funny about your comments about people working outside.  I was just thinking about that. Tomorrow is trash day for us.  The temp is -7 and won't get above zero until Friday.  I can't imagine these poor guys on the trucks picking up trash in this weather.  The windchill is already -29 right now and should close in on -40 by tomorrow morning.  That's deadly.

3.9 and dropping.  I guess I'll put my comment in on the school closing thing from a teachers perspective.  It doesn't really matter either way for us if school is canceled, atleast up here in St. Joe because teachers still have to report to work.  Granted its a bonus work day with no students, but its not like we get to stay home like the students. Its best to look out for those kids who have to stand at a bus stop or even walk to school (which is the case for many up here).  Personnally, if we have to use up a snow day let it be because there is actually snow on the ground, but I understand looking out for students too.

I teach in Sedalia and we are on a 2 hour delayed start tomorrow because of the cold.  Concern is kids waitng for buses.  Of course you also have to take into consideration the buses starting and even how long it will take to warm them up..

Farmgirl
No biggie on the delay for the response.  You made me laugh about the snoring.  I can so imagine it.  I long for the days when I can walk out of my house and walk to the pasture and call my own horse.  I'll have it someday..  then I can hear the snorin for myself. lol

6.1 here in Blue Springs, let's go for -6 and winchills around -25. By the way another station just said, "this is as cold as it will get for the rest of this winter". Another reason why Gary and the team are number 1 again. I look forward to the above statement being proven wrong and the LRC getting another plug for accuracy.

5.9 in Blue Springs

1.5 right now just west of Trimble, MO.  Wind Chill has hit -14.  Thankfully we aren't having the 40mph wind gusts that we had this morning as the front moved through.

Anyone around below zero yet? 4.3 in Blue Springs.

5kckmartins,
I raised horses for quite a few years and as others told you, laying down is not a biggie. Farmgirl mentioned that there is usually at least one horse always standing up. This goes back to the days when they were wild. There was always a horse, usually one of the leaders of the herd (there was usually a head stallion and head mare). Their job was to look out for anything that might be a threat to the herd. If they saw, smelled or heard anything, they gave the warning and the rest of the herd got up and ran to safety. Horses do like to sunbathe and when it starts to warm up you could almost hear their groans of contentment when they grab a few rays.

At least the wind has died down. It almost seems warmer since the wind died down. I was outside talking to the cable guy this afternoon and after only about one minute my right cheek went numb. Of course that is the cheek that the wind was blowing on. I hope my furnace works all night. The repair company won't call me back and they never fixed it.

1 here now in McLouth, the windchill is -12

Iheard the other station make that statement.  That was a mighty bold prediction and one I wouldn't have made.

1.2 right now just west of Trimble, MO.  Wind chill around -12 to -14.  It will drop below 0 tonight but I have to work tomorrow morning so I won't see it get below 0.  If you want to see just how cold it gets go to my website http://www.houseofstauss.com/weather/wxindex.php it updates every few seconds.  Whoever is working at NBC in the morning feel free to use the temp/windchill on the morning news.  As I wrote this it dropped another .2 and I'm now down to exactly +1.

OK, you got me beat, its 1.4 here in McLouth now.  Not going to make it to zero today, maybe Thursday morning.

Here's the current conditions in Lenexa. Looks like 3.4 now. Updates about every 25 seconds, provided the computer my weather station is connected to doesn't crash before morning. (Which it has done several times already!)

http://liveweather.kskoellers.com

Dav id

This is the kind of cold that is sharp...you can feel it in your lungs when you breathe outside.  At night if you step outside..its really odd.  Very very quiet.  Everything is silent when it is this cold.  

-1.9 here in independence

Well I was just woking up by a wrong number and its -2.0 in McLouth now.  We hit -0.1 at 1:11 oddly enough.

Well my digital thermometer is reading from -2.0 to -2.6 degrees F!!! Wow it is cold especially for the fact that there is no snow on the ground!!    
The "Polar Bear index" is very high tonight;)

Now I can't get back to sleep, its -2.05 now.  Gary what did you say the barometer was going to climb to?  Mine is reading 30.68

Yeahhhhhh, its -3.4 here in McLouth now, windchill is-21, barometer is 30.69

good morning I woke up with a temp of -5 in leavenworth.

-3 F so far at the International Airport. It could be worse, Minneapolis is at -20F, Sioux Falls, SD -22F, Madison, WI -13F, Des Moines, IA -15F.
So while we sit in the icebox, we can dream of the balmy weather in Alaska- where Fairbanks is enjoying +37F right now, Anchorage +41F, and even Barrow, AK on the coast of the Arctic Ocean is burning the mercury at +7F! That's beach weather, LOL!

Gary:

Good cold morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 1 degrees here in Lawrence under a milky sky with a lite breeze blowing from the NW. It will be interesting to see if Lawrence drops anymore this morning-I would not be surprised at all if we don’t get to 0 or maybe just below in the next two hours. Whatever the case, it is bitter out this morning but it does kind of get the blood flowing and get you going!! I know-I have some serious issues!!! LOL

A few random observations this morning that as I always say I hope make some sense!! As a hobbyist, I always have to put out that caveat!!

1. Looking at the 10Z surface charts this morning I think that the main center of the Arctic High is sitting over East Central North Dakota drifting in a SE trajectory. I thought that it would have been a bit further SE this morning than it is so I think we will still have some pretty chilly breezes this morning-not a real wind per se, but there will be a slight wind from the NW that when it hits you it will be Brian Adams and cut like a knife!!!

2. Interesting point 1: I really think this arctic intrusion shows this part of the pattern very well-being in a NW flow as we are and with the ridge sitting just on the west coast, the core of that cold air is really east/northeast of us-this really shows up on the current temperature maps and areas like Columbia and for sure St. Louis are really going to feel the brunt of this more than we are and especially more than Lawrence. One item I think that will really show this is how we warm up more quickly than those off to our East (I mean a warm up compared to what we are seeing today!!) I just think it is interesting how this core of cold air really fits the pattern so well and you can really see where we are right now in the LRC. This and looking at a water vapor imagery on the satellite!!

3. Interesting point 2: I also feel that this arctic intrusion is a great lesson in how the same regime of the LRC can produce different surface results at different times of the year. This week (I think) is what we saw around 11-21-11-26 where we bottomed out at around 15 or so but now, later in the year, these two fronts have true arctic air to work with. Same regime but more extreme results since it is January and not November. Am I even making any sense here???

4. Looking a bit ahead, I think it will be interesting to see if we have any back door fronts over the next 3-5 days-we did in mid to late November and with that cold air really sitting to our east to have one or two again would make sense-I think the GFS has been hinting at one this weekend so may be something to watch. I think??

5. Looking way ahead: Man the 12Z GFS Operational run yesterday really did show the active pattern developing-wow!! There is no doubt that the models are going to go back and forth on this over the next several days especially on specifics and temperatures at the 850 level and surface but I really do think that the one important item that has been consistent in the Euro and the GFS (both operational and ensembles) is the ridge retrograding back into the eastern Pacific and then up into the Gulf of Alaska-that to me is the major player/sign post for the active pattern and it is still showing up in the models. The rest will work itself out but that rise in heights in the Gulf of Alaska is important. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska is what we saw in December and historically, when we have that, this is going to be cold and it helps generate some southern branch energy. Ok-how bad did my limb crack on this one??? Am I making any sense here at all??

Well, I have for sure flapped enough this morning-I just think this pattern has been exciting-for sure we need moisture but the temperature fluctuations have been fun to watch/follow and the active part is coming together-for a winter/snow lover as myself, it is very exciting!!

Have a fantastic day and as always, thanks for reading!!

Bill in Lawrence

P.S. I wonder what the over/under is for the Get Smart Affect this morning LOL!!!!

I didn;t know my thermometer could show negative temps! Currently 5 belowat JoCo Airport!