NBC Action Communities

-3 here in KCK this morning! BRRRR is all I have to say.

Bryan

I love those commercials. I really like the baseball one. It's not a surprise to me of where you ranked! CONGRATS.
Now.... Are you forecasting 60's next week? This is just insane! These temperature swings are just blowing my mind. I know I should believe it because of the LRC but it is still hard to wrap my head around this. Still waiting for the more active part of the cycle. Next weekend!

How early could the snow develop?
Thanks.

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I highly recommend you watch our weathercasts.  It is too early to time out the chance of snow.  And, this is like tracking the chance of a two hour period of light rain showers during the spring. It is not really a storm, just a band of snow that may form sometime later tonight to our west.

Gary

Gary, a hearty congratulations to you, Jeremy, Brett, and Jeff for the Accuracy rating on your weather forecasting!!!!!

Edna

Gary,

I love the promo spots. They were well done. Congratulations on the accuracy score. I am at -2 here this morning at my location in south OP. I am looking forward to the warm-up and those 60 degree temperatures forecast for next week. I suspect those warmer temperatures will be a respite ahead of the next cycle in the LRC. What are the models now projecting for beyond the 23rd?

Bob

---------------

Bob,

The models are all over the place on their predictions.  The stormier part of the cycle for our part of the nation is not due in until the end of the month, but there should be some kind of a storm next week.

Gary

Congratulations Weather Team! Although, I'm not surprised, it is truly a testament to hard work all of you do to keep us informed of the weather. Accuracy is very important to those of us rural folks that raise livestock and crops. Thank You for the excellent work that you do every day.

BTW - Are you sure you don't have a time machine. You nailed today's low! Amazing.

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Thank you so much!  The low actually dropped to at least one degree lower than we predicted.

Gary

Congratulations!  The promos are Great!  

Gary,

Congratulations!  Job well done, sir, to you and your team!!  The promos are great too, the basketball shot is my favorite.

I learned as a small child, if I couldn't think of something nice to say, not to say anything at all, so mum's the word on the current temp.

:-)

-----------------

5 below feels so nice. Breezy and Stormy were outside for about 1 1/2 minutes.

Gary

It just warmed up here in Waukee, IA to -16.  Break out the swim trunks!

You are right Gary, when you leave town something happens. Due to the lackluster snowfall we are experiencing, how about the rest of the winter off, and we will see you around April. The best winter day I remember was 1985 on the 19th, the evening temp was around 0 and -65 windchills as my wife and I said I do. 24 years now I have waited for a repeat, we may have to move to the north pole or something. Impatiently still waiting for SNOW here in Blue Springs.  

Congrats on the accuracy!  I just think it is a waste to have such cold temps and no snow!  The clutch in my car was very stiff this morning, it did not want to move.  I work in a school district and these up and down temps are making some kids mighty sick!  Especially the ones with Asthma.  Hope everyone has a great day!

Can you make the Polar Bear Plunge at 3:00 pm on January 31 right at the peak of one of these 55 degree temperature swings.  That way I can plunge in warm weather but tell all my friends the temperature that day was 10 degrees :)

Congrats on being the most accurate again (and most responsive to its viewers)!

-------------

Thank you!  And, we will work on January 31st being the warm day.  It will be a tough challenge.

Gary

Gary, we know you are the most accurate compared to the other stations here in KC, but does Weatherate by any chance give you a rating compared to other stations nationally?  I would be interested to see where you rank across the US- I'm guessing it would be at the top!  Keep up the great work - am looking forward to the "balmier" 29˚ that tomorrow will bring!!  Dea

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Dea,

Weatherate doesn't quite do that stat.  But, we have had years where we were #1 in the nation in having the biggest lead over our competitors.  This is significant since you know they are trying to beat us. 

Gary

Gary and team, congratulations on your 6th consecutive year of providing the most accurate forecasts in Kansas City.  You guys are the hardest-working and most passionate TV meteorologists I've ever come across, between the TV forecasts and all the energy you put into creating this blog and answering bloggers' questions, not to mention the research you are doing on your LRC theory.  Keep up the fantastic work and I'll always watch your channel for KC weather when I'm in town.

-9 this morning in trenton

Got down to -2 today in downtown Overland Park. Brrrrr.

Bummer that the 40s on Friday that you were predicting earlier this week are no longer in the forecast. Still, it's nice that after tonight we stay above 20 for a while.

Is there an e-mail that I can e-mail privately Gary?

--------------

You can email me at Lezak@NBCActionNews.com

Gary

Congrats to the weather team!! The more active weather pattern better return soon or I am going to go nuts.....the temp extremes are fun to watch and experience BUT I want something more than that. I wonder what kind of problems these extreme up's and down's can do to a foundation...maybe since no precip is involved it is no big deal. My low, from what I could tell, was 1 degree at 7am. Have a great day and keep warm.
Monica
Pleasanton

------------

Monica,

Thanks! There is a chance of snow tomorrow morning.  I hope it forms, but doesn't miss you.  Again it will be close for your area.

Gary

Gary,

If you could speak the silent dog language Stormy & Breezy use to communicate with each other, you woud probably have heard them asking each other, why can't we be paper trained?  lol

Stay warm everyone!

--------------

Good one!

Gary

Can someone help me understand something.  Politics aside...Why is there global warming dangers told to us when we are seeing record snows and cold across the nation?  Flint Michigan broke a 95 year old record, Chicago has had the most consecutive days of snow since records began in 1883, and even here in Kansas City is frigid.  

I understand the concept of the gases trapping the heat and sunlight, but just don't get how it can be this bad temp wise if it is as severe as many say. Is there a non-political answer to this?


I figure it would be something to ask since it is weather related.  

When I walked outside this morning I realized why Kansas is called the land of AH's....i said AH, when I walked out the door, I said AH, when I grabbed the car door, i said AH, when I sat down on my leather seats.....lol

I love being able to trust the weather forecast you and the team so accurately deliver, I remeber as a kid, always hoping and usually getting a very wrong forcast when it came to winter events. As an adult, I have lost the desire for surprise snow storms or ice or even artic blasts.
I am not a winter lover, I much prefer summer and all the heat that goes with it, but I do have to agree that if it is going to be this cold, I would at least like to look outside and see something besides dead grass and bright sunshine, it is like a tease.
Keep up the good work weather team, we really do appreciate and depend on what you do everyday. Right or Wrong you're always Number 1 to us.

Amazing Gary!  Your computer forcast was for -3.6 degrees and this morning in Shawnee when I got up my digital thermometer said -3.7 degrees.  How do you do that?  BTW, thanks for showing the Hill City temps on your regional maps. I grew up there and my parents are still there.  I like to keep updated.  Mom watches the weather 24/7!

------------------

Your welcome.  Most viewers probably don't realize that it isn't just the computer that predicted that low.  We pick the time and temperature to show when we use that graphic, and that was the temperature we thought was the best to show.  And, we won't show it if it doesn't fit my forecast.  So, thank you for noticing.

Gary

If this snow tomorrow misses us, I will be so disappointed.  We've been horribly neglected south of KC!

-------------------------

I think your expectations are way too high. We have a 50% chance in there for a reason.  Yes, it looks pretty good for some snow, but this may be a very small area of snow.

Gary

I agree with everyone else, congrats on the ranking.
Someone mentioned that the clutch in their car was stiff this morning. On my husband's car, something in the door does not like the extreme cold. My husband says that the grease is too cold. The door will close but does not want to latch. He has to fiddle with it to get it to latch.
I was so hoping to recieve the call that there was no school for my youngest this morning. But alas, no phone call saying school was closed. She is sick and really needed the extra sleep. If there is school, then she wants to go, no matter how she feels. But the good news is that we finally figured out what the temperature outside has to be for her to wear her Winter jacket, -3 degrees. Crazy!

KansasPatriot,
Someone please correct me if I am wrong, which I very well might be.. However to answer your question, I believe it has to do with the polar ice melting, raising the ocean levels. The added fresh water from the melting ice also changes the salinity of the ocean. The weather is strongly tied to the oceans. The oceans rise and the weather patterns change. I think I saw something or read something about in extreme cases the normal weather flipping. So in places that are normally dry and hot 98% of the time (Egypt comes to mind) can have their atmosphere change so that they are almost tropical or turn into an frigid ice encrusted place. This last part might be totally wrong, I don't know. But I think I am right about the whole polar ice melting, ocean levels rising, the oceans being less salty, etc.

weatherfreak my car door doesn't want to latch in the cold either.  I have put grease on the door lock/latch & yesterday figured out the lock was freezing & preventing the door from closing/latching.  Maybe, if he can go w/out locking it, it would work for him.  Worked on my car.

KS Patriot: the simple answer is: global warming is a global phenomenon resulting in an increase in the global average temperature. Global warming does not mean that it won't be cold in Chicago or Michigan during the winter, or that you won't see record lows being broken.

Or to put it another way, you can't use local events (like a record low in Flint Michigan) to draw conclusions about this global phenomenon. It's a mistake to say "Oh, we're having a cold winter, global warming isn't real". It's also a mistake to say "Oh, we're having a hot summer, this is proof of global warming." The issue is much more complicated than that.

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Rdub,

Well put!  I am 100% on your page.

Gary

Geez..  Right now, we can't even get the make believe storms to show up as snow in the long term model...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_264l.gif

argh..

Matt

-----------------

Matt,

When the pattern cycles closer to the more active phase the GFS will start showing those fantasy storm systems, so be patient. 

Gary

Matt, that's not too surprising. The warm air advection component has been pretty strong in most storms this year...

Also, the reason the phrase "global warming" is being slowly replaced with "global climate change" is because global warming doesn't describe the phenomenon as accurately as global climate change.  The net result is that weather extremes become more extreme, just like this very cold winter.  It's not 100% responsible for this cold, but global climate change leads to instability and wild fluctuation in weather patterns.  

Re global climate change, there are places in the U.S. not having a very cold winter.  For example, temperatures in North Texas have been slightly above the 30 year average so far this winter, even with several cold spells with below average temperatures.  RDub said it best re local versus global temperatures.

Gary-
The students and staff of Trojan Elementary in Osawatomie, Ks. would like to invite you to come and visit us. You came to Osawatomie years ago when you still had Windy and we all gathered in the City Hall Building. I actually presented you with a weather tie and gave Windy a big chew bone. We now have a new school with about 450 kids that are first through fifth grade that would love to have you come visit and explain all about the weather. Oh, and see Stormy do her tricks too.
I have been an avid follower of you and the NBC Action Weather team for a long time and tell everybody I know that you and your team always has the most accurate forecast. Which I see has now been confirmed for the 6th year in a row. Congratulations!!.
We are open to whatever is available in your schedule before the end of this school year. You can contact me through this blog or at this e-mail address Hensler@usd367.org. We hope that you will have some time to come and visit us. Thank-you.

susy

"Weatherate doesn't quite do that stat.  But, we have had years where we were #1 in the nation in having the biggest lead over our competitors.  This is significant since you know they are trying to beat us."

That either means you are really good or the competitors are not that good.   I suppose it is #1, but some stations have the worst forecast that change daily or have no accountability when they go bust.

Congrats on being #1 again.   Us long time viewers know who is #1 without any rating company.    You are by far #1 in this market !!!!

Joe

Eye candy anyone?

It would have been more fun had it been - say - 22 days apart or something like that..but, sigh..it is the same 'ol 50 day.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_300l.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081210.html

;-)

I hope it does NOT Snow tomorrow because I am going on a road trip tomorrow....

Re: weatherate...

I'm not sure how you do some kind of national ranking for this, because the weather is easier to forecast in some places than in others. Wouldn't forecasters in places with boring weather like LA have an advantage over forecasters from places like KC?

stormlover, unfortunatly my husband needs to lock his door. He takes the express bus into K.C. for work. So he drives the car a few miles to the bus stop, get out of the car and into the bus. I will tell him what you said about the lock freezing. Maybe that is the issue. When he gets home, we does not lock it as both cars live in the garage.

It's cold, but dry, I'm am quite thankful for that.....forever doing the "no snow, no snow" dance here in Paola!!!!!!  I'm going to brave the cold later this afternoon and take Windy for a brief run in the park, it will definitely be brief! brrrrrr.
--deb

If it snows tomorrow it will be a very dry powdery snow is my guess. I am going to say some one is close is going to get at least an inch if not more.

Kane, it will be a dry powdery snow but I'm not sold on anyone getting an inch, let alone more. Just flurries, or no snow at all, are more likely than that.

Hello all, I am wondering if any of you know where I might be able to get the temperatures for Kansas City during the winter of 1909?  I thought it would be easy to find them on the internet, but I can only find record temps.  On a different note, thank you Gary for the fascinating LRC....I USED to be a viewer of one of the "other" stations...but not anymore.  Thanks in advance if anyone can help with historical data.

I would like to know where is the temperature gauge on the front of the weather page simply because I see other sites with higher  temps.  For example, when I go to yahoo they say it is 11 degrees...

Greetings from NH! It has been fairly mild this winter so far, and the coldest low I have recorded has been -3F. Tonight the low should be -14F, however! Snowfall so far this season has been around 40 inches.


The Midwest core was so much colder this morning than the Plains it wasn't even funny. It is an enormous struggle to ever get a true arctic airmass along as far southwest as KC.

Here is a sampling of the low temperatures in the core of the Midwest and the Northern Plains.

Iowa:
Cedar Rapids -29F (New all time record)
Charles City -26F
Oelwein -26F
Dubuque -26F
Davenport -26F
Spencer -26F
Marshalltown -25F
Waterloo -24F
Fort Dodge -24F
Iowa City -21F
Sioux City -20F
Ottumwa -18F
Burlington -18F
Des Moines -17F

Wisconsin:
La Crosse -26F
Eau Claire -23F
Lone Rock -22F
Rhinelander -22F
Prairie du Chien -20F
Wisconsin Rapids -20F
Wausau -20F
Marshfield -20F


South Dakota (East River)

Aberdeen -42F
Watertown -34F
Mobridge -33F
Huron -30F
Brookings -29F
Sioux Falls -26F
Mitchell -25F

North Dakota (East River)
Bismarck -44F
Devils Lake -35F
Jamestown -33F
Fargo -30F
Grand Forks -27F

Minnesota
Hallock -33F
Park Rapids -33F
Alexandria -31F
Brainerd -28F
Marshall -27F
Detroit Lakes -26F
St. Cloud -26F
Windom -26F
Fairbault -24F
Rochester -24F
Minneapolis Intl -21F

Illinois
Rochelle -37F
Sterling Rockfalls -24F
Rockford -16F
Waukegan -12F
O'Hare Airport -11F




















Mason City -24F

Wow, for not having snow on the ground this was/is a monster cold snap, Wow, when I went to bed at about 3 a.m. my digital thermometer was reading as low as -3.1 degrees!!
Congrats on continuing to "whoop" the competition...(then again compared to your forecasting abilities and the LRC is it really "competition":)) for the 6 straight year! Let the ride continue!!!!!!!!!!!

The fact that it doesn't get to -30 or even -20 is one of the many nice things about living in Kansas City. *************** Or the fact that I will never see 272" of snow in a winter season! Jeremy

lol! Gary, maybe we'll get 2 inches, if we had a dusting to inch of snow every day that melted in the afternoon with highs around 40 and 2 major snowstorms I'd have a perfect winter! (As long as the little ones were a surprise!)

New GFS seems pretty bullish on at least getting some snow...NWS has raised the chance to 60% but say less than an inch of accumulation....

Gary , I am sure you get this question a lot...but is there a link to tell what stations were rated what?

I know some people who need to see some statistical data...lol

(they are still watching other channels.)

thanks
Brent

Global Warming isn't real...period!

Most scientists are certain it is.  Period.

In these economic times, it is so important not to get down, but to maintain a positive attitude.  With that, humor often goes along way.  For this reason, I have downloaded these images as my wallpaper on my computer.

Looking at this again, I couldn't resist the chuckle...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20081120_winteroutlook.html

I wonder if OKC would like to chime in with the current rainfall.  I am sure Chicago is looking forward to their >40% chance to be warmer than average.

Doggone the wiggly ENSO and those clever teleconnections...

...falling out of my chair laughing...

One should not make controversial statements unless one has the data to support their position.  Otherwise the statement can not be taken seriously.  Adding an exclamation point to the end of the statement does not increase its validity.

kcwxguy, that NOAA outlook has been on my mind frequently ever since it was issued and differed so greatly from Gary's LRC-based forecast.  I even checked the NOAA website a couple days ago to see if they had issued an updated version that took into account the reality of the first month-plus of the forecast period (vastly different than their prediction) and of course they had not.  Silly government.

Scott, I'm also laughing at some guys who said KC would have a wet & snowy winter this year.... ;-)

If I do not get an inch of snow by Ground Hog Day I am taking down all my snowman decorations...and then maybe, just maybe I will get a good snow fall. :o)
Oh and I too like the commercials you are doing Gary...
Monica
Pleasanton

Scott, I normally just lurk but your posting pulled me out of the shadows.  I too am laughing and sending to family in northern Iowa so they can share in the giggles.

Thank you!

O yeah, Scott, the same guys who thought KC would have a wet winter also predicted a wet winter for OKC...so careful throwing those stones from a glass house...

"Global Warming isn't real...period!"

Wrong. Global average temperatures continue to rise. This winter has been a touch colder probably because we have reached a solar minimum in the cycle.

"The fact that it doesn't get to -30 or even -20 is one of the many nice things about living in Kansas City. "

Having terribly hot summer weather is much worse in my opinion. Having lows of -20F effectively freeze dries all of the nasty pests.

" Having lows of -20F effectively freeze dries all of the nasty pests."

Really? No mosquitos or biting pests in places that get to -20? I think that is news to Minnesota DNR...http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/young_naturalists/biting_bugs/index.html

KansasPatriot, WeatherFreak, and others:
in regard to "Global Warming" or "Global Climate Change"

I don't post very often, as I enjoy lurking in the shadows, but sometimes I can't resist.

Please be very skeptical of anything you hear concerning a mechanism driving climate change.  Nearly all of the currently postulated theories have serious flaws.  For instance:
Theory #1-
"Carbon Dioxide is a greenhouse gas that traps heat and is warming the globe."
This theory makes logical sense at a glance, but has been widely discredited by the scientific community once they became interested in it.  New technology enables us to get better resolution between temperature trends and CO2 levels than in the past, and we now realize that CO2 levels rise as a result of the warming, not the other way around.  There are many, many more holes in the CO2 theory, but the data speaks for itself.  Unfortunatly, politicians lag a bit behind the scientific community and are still on the "CAP CO2" craze.  Unfortunately it is not in their job descriptions to read scientific journals :(
Theory #2
"Climate change is governed by solar cycles."
This theory is of current interest because of the major change in the solar output of our most current cycle.  The "Mini ice-age" overlapped the Maunder Minimum, a time of few sun spots.  Additionally, there was a cold period more recently that also coincided with low sun activity (the Dalton Minimum).  There are also problems with this theory.  With better resolution of past sun data we are finding times when the Earth warmed during solar minima.  Also, the change in insolation (solar radiation hitting the planet) is not nearly large enough to account for the global temperature swings.  And so, no logical explanation for the mechanism between sun spots and weather patterns has been shown, but there are a few attempts building steam right now.  
Theory #3:
"Oscillations in Ocean Currents drive Global Climate Trends"
The weather behaves in cycles (you may have heard of the LRC :).)  The ocean also behaves in cycles.  The El Nino/ La Nina southern oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation...  There is a correlation between these cycles and weather patterns.  Of particular interest to climatologists is the PDO, pacific decadal oscillation, which is a ~60 year cycle of pacific currents.  This appears to correlate with the global periods of 30 years of warming, then 30 years of cooling.  Unfortunately, we don't have enough ocean temp data and good historical temp data to go back past a few cycles!  So, while there is a correlation between the cycle and temperatures, it is not a lot of evidence and a lot of speculation at this point.  
Unfortunately, the sun is becoming dormant at the same time as the PDO is flipping to a "cold" stage, and so if the global temperature continues to drop (it has been for a couple years), we can't be certain which, if any, of these is the cause!


Anyway, it is a vastly complicated field which has been stumping the computer modellers completely.  However, there are a lot of very smart people working on these theories and maybe some day we will figure it all out.  In the mean time... BE WARY OF WHAT YOU HEAR FROM A POLITICIAN!  :)

Chickadee said:
Most scientists are certain it is.  Period.

well what percent is "most"...



also "most" scientists were certain of global cooling back in the 70s.... Period. :)  I give it 20 years and its back to global cooling. ... depending on what politician is running and what his agenda is and what companies have the money.

Back to todays weather, car was reading -5 this morning, i'm just glad it wasnt very windy. Buddy of mine up in iowa had -21 with -48 wind chill this morning. Said once he went outside his face was instant pain!

FredSouder,
I never quoted Politicians. I rarely believe what comes out of their mouth, so why would I repeat what they say? I was just trying to answer a question that was posted. In my answer, I did have say to please correct me if I am wrong. What I said, is what I have heard various scientist say or scientific groups say, not politications. If you want to know the theory that I personally believe is most likely true, it is this.. That the Earth has cycles, the ice age was an example of a cycle. So it warming up or cooling down has to do with its cycles. I also think that it does not hurt to try to reduce pollution.  As to CO2 emissions, I am thinking of buying an Hybrid car as my next car. I try to use energy effecient light bulbs, and I try to plant more plants. However, I still use my car, computer, electricity, etc. I see no reason to not be more Earth friendly, but I am not ready to go off the grid.

the 90's anytime over this.

Weatherfreak01,
Please do not think that I was directing my "don't listen to politicians" remark to you!  It was just a general comment.  I have seen other posters mimic what politicians keep chanting, such as "Most scientists say there is global warming".  I am not sure what scientists they are polling to make this statement, but it is not engineers, geologists, paleo climatologists, meteorologists, or historians.  There is such an enormous problem with politics driving pseudo science and media that it is hard for the lay person to have a good grasp on what is real.
I was merely expounding on a few of the theories that are currently being pursued by more mainstream scientists.  Oh, and AMEN to living efficiently and recycling!  

Im with Andrew Global warming is not real. There are some scientists that say it isnt. I dont believe it is, but anyways lets all pray for some snow tomorrow I really dont even care if we get alot I just like seeing it

6 years in a row. Why does that not surprise me? Good job.

Would it be safe to ASSUME that next week's sunshine and warm up is a calm before the storm of Feb?

Rdub,  

If you so choose, I could go city by city and show you the differences [I am odd that way, as I am a data monger] - but, since you wanted to just go with KC and OKC in your comments, let me address that.

First, let me set some parameters.  Lets go with meteorological winter as a point of reference.  Let's also assume that we are just about half way through it as we are about 45 days in at this point.

Ok..so, for KC - the average precip for Winter months is ~3.7 inches at KMCI.  Figuring we are half way through, we should gauge accuracy of half that total or ~1.85 inches.  Right now, KMCI is at 1.83 inches.

I would call that average half way through.  Knowing that the active cycle is coming up, I am not concerned.  Now, as for as OKC...yup..both forecasts are off on that.

However, compare the two maps.  The LRC driven forecast has a greater focus to the east in the Mississippi Valley opposed to the NOAA one.  So far, that is verifying nicely.

Tempwise - the CPC map is just plain wrong short of some potential in the far southern part of their contours.  The LRC map is pretty close.

So, while the LRC Winter forecast is not perfect, it is much closer to reality at the midway point than the CPC.  Hey, there is half of Winter left, so there is more to happen before counting the chips, but short of a monsoon in S. Plains in Feb or a heatwave in the Central Plains and Midwest...the CPC forecast is going to bust.

No doubt, any Winter forecast is going to have some holes, and the LRC one is no exception.  If any of them were perfect, would you need more than one source?

We have some Winter left..and time will tell..but thus far, the CPC forecast seemed quite a bit off to me.

But alas...its not the CPC's fault. I blame it on La Nada.  

;-)

Rdub,  

If you so choose, I could go city by city and show you the differences [I am odd that way, as I am a data monger] - but, since you wanted to just go with KC and OKC in your comments, let me address that.

First, let me set some parameters.  Lets go with meteorological winter as a point of reference.  Let's also assume that we are just about half way through it as we are about 45 days in at this point.

Ok..so, for KC - the average precip for Winter months is ~3.7 inches at KMCI.  Figuring we are half way through, we should gauge accuracy of half that total or ~1.85 inches.  Right now, KMCI is at 1.83 inches.

I would call that average half way through.  Knowing that the active cycle is coming up, I am not concerned.  Now, as for as OKC...yup..both forecasts are off on that.

However, compare the two maps.  The LRC driven forecast has a greater focus to the east in the Mississippi Valley opposed to the NOAA one.  So far, that is verifying nicely.

Tempwise - the CPC map is just plain wrong short of some potential in the far southern part of their contours.  The LRC map is pretty close.

So, while the LRC Winter forecast is not perfect, it is much closer to reality at the midway point than the CPC.  Hey, there is half of Winter left, so there is more to happen before counting the chips, but short of a monsoon in S. Plains in Feb or a heatwave in the Central Plains and Midwest...the CPC forecast is going to bust.

No doubt, any Winter forecast is going to have some holes, and the LRC one is no exception.  If any of them were perfect, would you need more than one source?

We have some Winter left..and time will tell..but thus far, the CPC forecast seemed quite a bit off to me.

But alas...its not the CPC's fault. I blame it on La Nada.  

;-)

Yey! I can finally correctly pronced chlorolflorolcarbons!!!!! (forgive the "ly's" and and spelling mistakes! ;-)

Rdub said:
"Really? No mosquitos or biting pests in places that get to -20? I think that is news to Minnesota DNR...http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/young_naturalists/biting_bugs/index.html"

Ya, MN does have those pesky mosquitos, but the northwoods MAKE UP FOR IT in a big kind of way. The headwaters of the Mississippi River are located near Lake Itasca if you have ever been up that way. Pine and spruce trees galore + REAL LAKES. Reservoirs are usually army corps of engineer projects and are not natural, thus usually inferior compared with the real thing.

So many no believers of global warming laying mountains of evidence on me to not believe in it. Now I see people saying is not real on this blog. And I finaly don't believe in it totaly! WEIRD!

So is the chance for snow tomorrow now gone?

OK 3 degrees now in McLouth, how much lower will it go?  Our barometer is rising now 30.73 and has been rising for hours at the rate of +0.01 hr.  

Our heating system went bust this morning before sunrise.  the house dropped to 36 before we were finally able to re-start the furnace at 3:30PM.  Now we are back at a comfy 71.  I tell ya, 36 inside your house is colder than 36 outside.  Could have been worse if it wasn't for the few space heaters.  Best news is our grandsons gold fish survived and no broken pipes.  We did have kitchen and 1 of the bathroom pipes froze.  This cold is crazy stuff.  Bring on the warm up, my smoker is ready to go with a lot of meat for game day weekend.

CentralOP. I started working up here in Des Moines back on Oct. 20.  The whole family moved up here the weekend following Christmas.  It's very different than Kansas City.  It certainly reminds me a lot of back in New England.  However, there's a little more dampness back there.  It got up to -4 today here and should drop back down to -13 tonight.  I just started the car, even though it didn't want to this morning.  
Also, Fred, I believe that 2007 was one of the warmest on record.  Remember the 15 straight days at 95 or above?

Matt P,

Yes, Des Moines is far more Midwestern compared with Kansas City- especially when it comes to climate. I-80 is basically the dividing line (I think) between the Upper Midwest and the Lower Midwest.