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are we still thinking less than an inch for most of the viewing area?

Weatherfly, From the post....

"It is likely going to concentrate on one 45 mile wide band where over an inch could fall.  Outside of this 45 mile wide area there will likely be a 90 mile wide area that has snowfall accumulation of under an inch."

Thanks...I had put that up before he added his comments...well, at least it should look nice.

That 7-day looks SWEET BABY!

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We will be making one more adjustment to the 7 day after the GFS comes out.

Gary

If that 7 day forcast was a 10 day would it have plunging temps and precip. after those two days in the 60s?

Is this the lowest temperature that we have had in a couple of years or did it get colder last year or in 2006-2007?

From the latest model info. it looks like the cold might hold a bit stronger than anticipated. The low to mid 40's may be closer to upper 30's to 40 on Saturday and Monday and then maybe the warm up Tuesday - Thursday. It is now 3.0 degrees here in Blue Springs.

OK not funny anymore, we get excited at a dusting to one inch. This LRC cycle stinks, we want a new one. If this is what we have to look forward to until next Sept. this will be no good. The hits of light precip, then what seems to be forever dry spells will only lead to a hot dry summer in this city. Wow we keep hearing about it coming around and later in the month well looking at the calendar we better get something this next go round or kiss this snowfall winter goodbye.  Gary I know you love snow so this has got to be making you climb the walls like it does me.

its down to -1 already here.  

i am fond of these WAA events.  back when we were all issuing our winter forecasts i made sure these events were discussed briefly...i find them fascinating.  and, they often can produce locally heavier amounts of snow compared to projected qpf.  high ratio and good lift...someone will get a solid 2" somewhere.  

back to the temperature...i noticed you said leavenworth would be at 6 degrees early tomorrow morning.  i am sure the temp will rise eventually, but it would seem we might make a run to near last nights low of -8(at fort leavenworth) before the upward trend begins. clear skies, light wind, high pressure, and a dew point of -11 means that temps are going to go down before they go up.

just imagine what the low would have been this morning had there been snow on the ground...no doubt a record low would have been established-as we were only 4 degrees off.   i bet it would have reached -15 in some areas.

I agree with N2Mountains! Can we trade in this year's LRC for another one? Perhaps one that gives us our fantasy snow storms?

0z looks good.

I am not understanding....I am not seeing this precip on the READY maps.  Am I looking wrong?
becky

OK all you snowmen and women, it is snowing just sw of Beatrice NE.  Well a dusting out here like Gary daid.  NWS is saying a half inch here ne of Topeka.  I need summerrrrrrrrrrrr.

I didn't get a chance to catch the 10:00 weather, so can someone tell me what he said about tomorrow morning?  I'm just wondering if the drive to work tomorrow is going to be a hassle.

well.
expect some snow for your morning rush.

a narrow band of snow will engulf the area between 5 and 7 and last for a few hours.

May be a bit tricky for u morning commuters.

Gary:

Good lite snow falling chilly morning to you sir!! Yes, indeed, we have lite snow currently falling in Lawrence with a temperature of around 10 degrees. It is awesome!!! It took a spell for the column to saturate but it finally did and yes-SNOW!!! It may be lite but hey, there are flakes falling from the sky!!!! The other aspect about this morning is the winds have picked up from the south so while it is not as cold as yesterday, that wind will get ya!!!

A few random observations this morning that as I always say I hope make some sense!! As a hobbyist, I always have to put out that caveat!!

1. First and foremost: the Get Smart Affect was in full swing yesterday LOL!! I posted in the earlier Blog yesterday just as you posted the updates-gotta love it!! LOL

2. Man the 10Z surface charts really are interesting to see-one can really notice the return flow and man that is one strong high pressure sitting over the Boot Heel of Missouri this morning: 1046 MB-very impressive indeed!!! That brings on some kind of return flow!!!!

3. I think that this arctic intrusion is a great lesson in how the same regime of the LRC can produce different surface results at different times of the year. This week (I think) is what we saw around 11-21-11-26 where we bottomed out at around 15 or so but now, later in the year, these two fronts have true arctic air to work with. Same regime but more extreme results since it is January and not November.  The other interesting aspect is that if we have a similar build up of arctic air between now and February and it comes down full force while in that more active regime, lock the doors as we will be the ones sitting at 10-15 below 0-like in December, the arctic high will come right over the top of us not east of us like happens in this NW flow regime. Something to watch!!! Does this even make sense?? LOL

4. Looking a bit ahead, I think it will be interesting to watch this quasi back door fronts over the next 3-5 days-we did have 1-2 in mid to late November right before Thanksgiving week and with that cold air/Great Lakes trough really sitting to our east to have one or two again would make sense-The GFS has been hinting at one for Saturday so it is something to watch/follow for this weekend. I think??

5. Looking way ahead: Man the 12Z GFS Operational run Wednesday really did show the active pattern developing-wow!! There is no doubt that the models are going to go back and forth on this over the next several days especially on specifics and temperatures at the 850 level and surface but I really do think that the one important item that has been consistent in the Euro and the GFS (both operational and ensembles) is the ridge retrograding back into the eastern Pacific and then up into the Gulf of Alaska-that to me is the major player/sign post for the active pattern and it is still showing up in the models-for sure on the 0z GFS Ensembles last night even though the operational runs of the Euro and GFS were not as robust with it.  The rest will work itself out but that rise in heights in the Gulf of Alaska/Eastern Pacific is important. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska is what we saw in December and historically, when we have that, this is going to be cold and it helps generate some southern branch energy. Ok-how bad did my limb crack on this one??? Am I even close to being on the right track??

Well, I have for sure flapped enough this morning-I just think this pattern has been exciting-for sure we need moisture but the temperature fluctuations have been fun to watch/follow and the active part is coming together-for a winter/snow lover as myself, it is very exciting!!

Have a fantastic day and as always, thanks for reading!!

Bill The master of the Get Smart Affect in Lawrence

Sorry-just me again!!

It is now snowing-bona fide snowing here in Lawrence!!! I feel like the kids in Frosty the Snowman when they got of school-yea snow!!!! It is beautiful out there!!!

Looking at the Nexrad radar it looks to be moving right down U.S. 75 with the heavier bands just to the west of Lawrence. Looks like it could snow for about 2-3 hours as the edge of the snow shield looks to still be in southern Nebraska. I think??

No doubt I am lucky as a snow lover this morning as this band could have for sure missed Lawrence and I really thought it would-I'll take it!!!!

Bill catching snow flakes on my tounge in Lawrence

The main question - are the roads going to get bad this morning????

It's starting to look like a nasty messy day, light snow that will land, then melt this afternoon giving way to a muddy, mucky mess.  The ground is still saturated albeit frozen here in Paola, we don't need any moisture, none, zero zip!  I am thankful it will be light and not much accumulation.  Come on sunshine and warm weather, quick!!!!! I am sooooooo ready for Summer!

We have snow in Leavenworth as well, and already the sidewalk is a slippery slide, do not be fooled...a little moisture goes a long was when it is this cold