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The weekend is here! After a couple of very cold days we begin to thaw out today. Temperatures jumped to around 30 overnight and a quick warm-up is in the cards today. With a clipper passing to our north, and winds southwest or west through lunchtime I think a run into the 40s is likely. Around or just after noon another cold front will drop through the viewing area. Unlike our past couple of fronts, this one has Pacific air behind it and not arctic air. That will translate into a cooler Sunday, but not a drastic drop in temperatures which has been common this winter.
For today highs will be in the 40s with variably cloudy skies. If you haven't shoveled your walk or sidewalk yet the mild air may help you out today:) The surface map this morning may be a good one to print off and practice drawing in the fronts, troughs, and low(if you are really a weather nut). Here is the surface setup shortly after 7 a.m.
This surface map is fascinating for many reasons, but here are a couple I want to point out. Chicago went from -8 last night at 9 p.m. to +13 by 7 a.m. This shows the surge of mild air moving in and signals the displacement of the arctic air. Also look into south-central South Dakota where temperatures are in the 30s. This is well behind the cold front which I believe is near southeast Nebraska.
As the clipper departs I think a secondary or back door cold front moves in on Sunday. This will likely give us mostly cloudy or cloudy skies and a chance of a few flurries or maybe a snow shower. Right now the best chance of a snowflake is east of Kansas City for Sunday.
There's a quick glimpse of the weekend. But I want to fast forward to the coming week and discuss the LRC a little bit. 'When the cat is away the mice will play'...so here's my findings on the LRC which I kind of stumbled on when looking back last night.
The week ahead should be corresponding to the final week of November 2008. This is really only the second time through this part of the pattern because the previous time it was around would have been when the cycle was just forming or establishing itself back around October 10ish.
Typically when doing strictly a map comparison we look at the 500mb level. Last night and very early today I looked back at some surface maps and did a double take a few times...so here is what I found.
This first surface map is from November 24, 2008. This map features a Pacific cold front which is located over the Mississppi Valley and southern Plains. Low pressure in Ontario and another over the Great Lakes. Also, a ridge in the West.
Now the HPC forecast surface map for today. This map features a trough or weak front(Pacific) in the Mississippi Valley extending into the southern Plains. Also, low pressure over the Great Lakes, with another right near southern Ontario. And of course...the ridge in the West.
Now here is the November 25, 2008 surface map. Here are the highlights. High pressure behind a 'back door' cold front, with the front located over the Midwest and Plains. Low pressure over the Great Lakes, with a cold front that extends into the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge in the West is present.
Now the HPC forecast surface map for Sunday. This features a 'back door' cold front over the Midwest and Plains, low pressure in the Great Lakes, and cold front extending into the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge in the West still exists.
Wow! That is what I said after doing this quick map comparison. The maps above are from NOAA/Dept. of Commerce if anyone is wondering. I didn't have anything to do with making these maps.
Since we are heading into the last week of November on the repeating cycle we are confident that a storm should near the region by probably Friday(ish). The last time through the cycle the storm produced our first accumulating snow in Kansas City. This time it appears it could be a mix to snow event, followed by a shot of cold air. Our confidence is very high in a warm-up ahead of this storm because it happened before the storm in late November. 50s to around 60 look like a possibility, but a lot will hinge of what time of day the warmest air(aloft) moves in and also any cloud cover. Right now the GFS is a little 'off' in what we think this next storm should look like, but it is beginning to trend more in line with our thoughts.
I know what question is coming so I will address it now. The cycle length on the comparison above is roughly 54 days. Estimates so far have been in the neighborhood of 50-54 days for a cycle length by Gary. Since the complete cycle is only about to be completed for the 2nd time in the next 2 weeks I think it is fair to say that maybe the cycle is more of a 52-54 day cycle now that more information is available after viewing the storm evolutions and timing. Either way it is very fascinating to see a unique weather pattern develop in the Fall and then cycle through the year.
That's my take on where we are at in the pattern and how we can use the LRC to help our forecasts in both the short and long term. Hopefully you enjoyed the discussion since the weather is otherwise pretty quiet this weekend!
Have a great Saturday and thank you for taking time out of your weekend to visit our blog! And finally...enjoy the snow while it lasts!
Jeremy