NBC Action Communities

Great job on the snowman build, nothing like having engineers and construction workers in the house.  I'll be waiting for your update.  A little dissappointed we won't be in record territory.  Hadn't even thought about it until you mentioned it.  About the next precipitation producing storm, I believe it was 2055 on Superbowl Sunday we had an ice and snow storm.  Are we headed this way?  What a terrible weekend.  Early day was nice, then the rain came and we were busy spreading tarps over the smokers, then it changed to ice and guests fled our house for the long drive back to KC.  Then that night over to snow.  Well, I think it was Superbowl Sunday, maybe not but it was definitely gameday.

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Gary is working on Super Bowl Sunday(game is on NBC).  If I had to guess he would love to have a storm to talk about that night!

Jeremy

lol...love the snowman

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He met an untimely death at about 2 p.m. Saturday when he tipped over:)

Jeremy

Jeremy,

Your daughters Avery & Ella look to be close in age like my two little girls. They are sixteen months apart. I should have taken a picture of the snowman we made on Saturday morning, never even thought of it I guess. Our snowman, like yours faced certain death in the afternoon.

Bryan

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Bryan,

Our girls are just over 15 months apart...it provides for some excitement around the house:)

Jeremy

last cycle around -12 this one so far -7 but no snow on the ground like we had in December any snow and that -7 would have been -11 to -15 oh well.  No snow for all of Jan [our driest month] 7.8 for the season. . . last year we had an 8 [22 Dec] and 13 [4 abd 5 Feb] inchers we we lucky. . . it will not happen again. . . it is 20 Jan temps have reached avg mean lows and are coming up.  Adding 3 plus minutes of daylite a day.  

Before we know it St Patty's day will be here and as is the norm; except for last year another winter and chances of snow will have passed us by.

Pitchers  and catchers report in 26 days so bring on spring for the boys of summer.

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Can't wait for baseball and to check out the 'new K'!  The next 4 weeks should be fun one way or another.

Jeremy 

Hey stjoelawyer I am with you on 26 days.  It will be exciting times in 3 and a half weeks.  We can make it until then.  You stay warm and dry.  Keep your glove oiled.

Great updates all weekend Jeremy.   Time to get some rest and play with those great looking girls you got.

Jeremy - what if....

What if it really isn't looking goofy at all?  What if Friday's storm isn't the 30th, but rather the 3rd?

Lets start with this...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081203.html

Ok..in the EPAC you have the high over low.  Small ULL in NM.  Shallow West Atlantic troughing.  

Oh..and because this is fun sometimes...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day4nav.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20081203.html

So, it begs the question..what happened to the 30th storm?  First, this is kinda like a detective trail.  On the 30th of November, leading up to that storm, two things happened.  You had a cutoff ULL hanging out west of California and a much weaker ridge.  Second, you had a ULL come in through BC heading SE.  This northern stream ULL phased with the ULL off the coast, and there you had Nov 30th at full phase just to our east.  Big ULL.

This time, seasonality struck.  The ridge was much stronger this time around on the West Coast.  That caused two things to happen.  First, the ULL off the coast of Cali last time, is now a faint low pressure area being controlled if not crushed by the ULH.  It doesn't have anything to work with.  Second, the ULL that came in from BC last time - again - crushed by this ridge.

If you look at the sequence between 1/15-1/16, you can see a wave come over the top of the ridge, and the Cali low does begin to move inland... it wanted to..but alas, the NW flow was too great and the ridge too strong to let his happen, instead the wave got eaten by the trough and nothing happened.

In fact, this day would be the time period it would have been here.  Wimper.

Note to all watching the LRC carefully, the ridge to the West is wicked.  It is much stronger this time.  Will it be able to hold up through Feb?

So, in looking at the N Pac, as of 174 hr, I think the GFS has it right so far..roughly.  It has the strong ridging forming and brings the troughs trough the west.  Ok..so far so good.  Artic air from the north, and wet ULLs from the SW.  Perfect.

But..the GFS in the next frame wants to bring the troughing in BACK of the ridging.  That would mean a strong Aleutian low and the ridging over Northern Canada.  Because of the SE ridging in this part of the pattern, this would turn the pattern more zonal or slight NW flow.  That would do none of us any good.  Unless you like just cold.

That kind of pattern would hammer the NW, but I am thinking the ridge stays east, and funnels the troughing down the back side much like Feb.  We will see.  Maybe this is the Feb twist?  

Dunno.  
But, I think the GFS is wrong.

********************** I guess anything is possible. I'll look things over after the 12Z stuff when I have more time. Jeremy

Great picture Jeremy, the girls looks so proud of their creation!   Sorry Frosty had to succumb to the warm temperatures, Windy even seemed a little shocked to go outside and find all the snow she had played in was gone.
I love it when we start talking baseball, that means that this Winter will be behind us soon and Summer will be even closer :0)!!!
Cool start to this day, 28 here in Paola with a stiff 22 mph wind.  I'm bundling up good for this morning's walk, I think I'll put Windy's coat on her as well.  Have a great day everyone, enjoy MLK day and the inauguration festivities.
--deb

Hi, Jeremy, I have a couple of questions this morning.

Tomorrow, tree cutters are coming to cut down a leaning tree rather close to my house.  Can you give me an idea of the wind speed and direction for Tuesday for morning and afternoon separately?  I greatly appreciate this.

Is Gary back for the afternoon forecast?

You have two very sweet girls showing off their snowman which is larger than I would have thought possible for the amount of snow that fell!

Thanks, and have a great day.  Edna

******************** Edna, Gary is back Tuesday. Winds will probably be strongest in the morning on Tuesday, then ease up a bit in the afternoon. Maybe 10-20 then 7-15. Jeremy

Edna I used to work for a tree cutting service years and years ago.  Iy is going to be as windy Tuesday as it is today from the same direction.  On the heavy stuff and probably all of it, they need to tie the limbs off.  We always tied our limbs off if they were more than 2' long.  Wind and wind gusts always play games when you least expect them.  At least the ground is still partially frozen so there won't be a lot of turf damage.  What kind of tree(s) are they taking out?  Do you have a fireplace or ar they taking all the wood?

Jeremy, your little ones are adorable and frosty will be back again someday. I just hope it's not the weekend of valentines day... that I believe is when the next exciting weather maker is suppose to occur. I hope it holds off though as I want to attend Equifest in Wichita on the weekend.... It will be a weekend spent with horse crazy women like myself!

I did get to enjoy this weekend to the fullest. I was able to ride three horses. I feel fantastic now. I'm even thinking about taking an afternoon off on Wednesday if it;s not going to be too windy with the warm up. ******************** This Thursday looks windier than Wednesday. Last night was pretty gusty too! Jeremy

Hi Jeremy! Cutie pie girls you have.....they must look like mom (lol, kidding) :o)
Your snow man looked good for what you had to work with....I am hoping this next batch of active weather brings me snowman building snow. I am not holding my breath though.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS ***************** Monica, I'm sure you will have at least 1 or 2 more snows to whiten the ground. Jeremy

Big snowman Jeremy ! Somebody one my block made an 8' tall one as they do every winter. It only lasted a couple hours as they built it on saturday.

I'm with you farmgirl,
When Gary asked tongue in cheek when the we would get our biggest snowfall of the year, I picked Valentines Day. I figure that the husband and I try to get away that weekend (much prefered as to getting away on our anniversary which is during tornado season). I picked Valentines day as it would be the least convenient time. :-)

Hey Jeremy,

I woke to a heavy dusting of snow on the ground here in Marceline....0.03"

Alex

Okay...Your snowman is lovely BUT I want to build a snowman too however the snow comes too quickly and lasts very shortly.  As a teacher in Olathe I cherish the snow days as my opportunity to be a kid again and build snowmen and sled down snowy hills.  I believe Gary told us we would have snow days this year and I remain optimistic as I have faith in the LRC but my hope is fading.  Please restore my faith and give it to me plainly...IS THERE ANY HOPE FOR US IN OLATHE?

Your weather Friend-
SnowDayHope ****************** I think there is hope. Now if we get to February 15ish and there is no more snow...then hope may be running out. I wouldn't worry quiet yet. Jeremy

Hey Jeremy,

I woke up to a heavy dusting of snow on the ground here in Marceline, MO...0.03"

Alex **************** Alex, Thanks for the report. As the clouds passed this morning I saw maybe 5 flurries:) I think some snow showers are a decent bet this evening or tonight. Jeremy

Weather Team,

Are any of you attending the Douglas County Weather Symposium on March 21st?
****************** I'd love to...but working double shifts on the weekends generally eliminates me. You may want to ask Gary or Brett though. Jeremy

I am going to try to make it

KC Ham I"ll be there at the DGCO Weather class if I can get out of work, we'll see.

I'm definitely attending. What better way to spend a birthday than to hang out with a bunch of weather dudes & dudettes?

What better way to meet HAM radio operators and public safety folks?  ;-)  

Afternoon.  Say, what about these 'snow showers' coming in tonight?  Is this something that's going to cause another traffic mess like Friday?  

Brett kept mentioning snow with "light accumulations" tonight from 9p-4am and this was mentioned by the anchors at 11am but there is no update here?  Jeremy you mentioned "snow showers" above.  Which is it?  Will we get an update soon?  I am just wondering what to expect during rush-hour.  Thanks!

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To me snow showers and light snow can be one in the same.  To me light snow lasts a little bit longer.  Anyways, both Brett and I have been on the same page mentioning snowflakes for later this evening and tonight.  A dusting of snow is possible.  This setup is much different than last Friday which we handled very well, so at this moment it doesn't look like snow totals would get out of hand.  A dusting in spots looks good.  I may mention flurries to a quarter inch on the newscasts...still looking things over though. 

Jeremy

I HAVE A VERY BIG QUESTION FOR THE WEATHER TEAM
I was just in Mason City, IA the other day and returned home late yesterday. It was near blizzard conditions all day, but the radar and observations implied it was only cloudy. What explains the observations and radar not picking up on the heavy snow?

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I know in blizzard conditions sometimes the automated stations get messed up with the poor visibility and strong winds.  Were you in a ground blizzard, or was it snowing.  I'm not sure unless I look back which I can do later.  Ground blizzards don't need snow to be falling, just strong winds and limited visibility.  In that case the radar shouldn't be showing any type of precipitation.

Jeremy

Scott said..."What if Friday's storm isn't the 30th, but rather the 3rd? "

Isn't the cycle 50 days? That would line up with the 3rd. Or is it back to being 54 days again, which would line up with Nov 30th?

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Rdub,

As you know Gary and Jeff are the LRC guru's, I tried to do a comparison this weekend that I said may or may not be exactly correct.  Gary will be back tomorrow morning blogging and will give everyone an LRC update.  I think the cycle length Gary has discussed has been in the 50-52ish day range. 

Jeremy

RDub, This goes back to my complaints about the LRC for a while where there can be up to a 5 day allowance which is first, simply not allowed.  Second, even an amateur could get it right with a 5 day allowance or at least half right.
The idea of making the cycle fit into a certain amount of days is questionable, but I do believe there are littler LRC's within the cycle and larger ones outside the LRC.  I also believe you can go back 90 days and take that and go back over the years and match that pattern to come closer to what will happen and that's what I do on my 5 week forecast and it's rarely failed.  The trick is matching the right pattern with the correct year.
Within the LRC idea, I believe there are mini cycles that run on more of a 7-8 day period.  Outside of that, the LRC is best as a roadmap for the long range.

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Gary we certainly respect your opinion and maybe someday a mini-cycle will be discovered.  If you believe this can you show us examples?  I'm curious to learn more.  Also, where is your 5 week forecast posted, I'd like to check it out sometime.

Jeremy 

This saturday the highs are projected to be around 25 with lows of 16.  The closest day you will find 50 something days ago is 54 days ago with 33H, 21L.    Our real activity didn't begin until December 10th when we began the roller coaster and I do belive that part may recycle.  Using the a 54 day LRC, that would happen closer to Jan. 3rd.

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Gary,

I am just back from California.  But, your December 10th time frame, given the 50-53 day cycle we believe we are in, would time out to aroung February 3.  Not January 3, so I am sure that was just a typo.

And, Gary, there is no picking and choosing!  Let the season move forward and we will present the evidence.  It is either there or it is not there. We will show you and everyone else that it is there! As our forecasts verify, and we show the comparisons that were predicted weeks and months ahead it will be there for you and everyone else to see.  It is just fascinating. 

Gary L

I think I am going to put together some canned answers about the LRC.  It would save me some time in typing.

Rdub - I shared what I thought the pattern matched at this point, but the irony is that the comment is being made of cycle time [while it has ALWAYS been noted as variable within a few days].  Discussing cycle durations is a moot point if you don't accept the pattern is recurring.  I am beginning to wonder and research what is established that says the LRC COULDN'T exist.  We accept the MJO and ENSO, both pattern based theories, yet the LRC just couldn't happen?  Is it just the regular cycle that is the sticking point?

The MJO and ENSO are not proven.  They are accepted, yes.  They have been peer reviewed, yes - but not proven.  Each of those took years to gain traction and compile documentation/evidence.  I would not expect anything different from the LRC except for the fact it is discussed openly and used already for forecasting.

Certainly, while nothing has been proven, noting the significance of the Great Lakes trough, and the mean long wave of that feature in November would be beyond any model output or teleconnection index.  Noting that there would be a transition from that feature back to troughing in the West should be something to consider.  By many accounts provided by NOAA agencies and others, certainly there is much discussion about the retrograde of that feature westward in the upcoming days/weeks.

I am beginning to wonder if it would just be easier to say that Gary/team use a crystal ball and leave it at that....LOL

But alas, it is about the cycle..  i couldn't be happier to talk about the pattern's finer features such as the cycle, as it would assume the other elements are accepted - even for just the point of discussion.

I am good with critique.  That is how theories get better.  But, I am trying to find critique that can give me something to bite into for research opposed to points already communicated repeatedly where variance has been discussed in depth.

How about discussion about the rest of the post you referenced.  The features, the movement, and how it came together?  How about the growing ridge in the EPAC?  How about any of the recent posts on lrcweather.com that show polar views of the pattern or any of that?

I welcome the discussion...I love to do the research and provide feedback.  I guess by now everyone knows that.  LOL

Garyb -Continual grumbling about how this day doesn't match the temperature of a day 50 days prior is not even remotely similar to how the LRC works or is communicated.  

As far as your 5 day variance thought...it is comical.  While the scientific community can accept the MJO defined as 30-60 days, you have an issue with 5.  In addition, within a cycle that is ~ 50 days, 5 days is going to be at or less than 10% variance.  The GFS often gets above that threshold just 5 days out in its output!

Because the analysis of the LRC and subsequent forecasting is not wholly based on the cycle, but more the repeating pattern, having variance is not as critical.  Knowing where you are in the pattern, the flow leading up to and exiting a point of reference is the most important part - not what the surface temperature was a month and a half ago.

As far as your 90 day claim...cool, bring some data to the table and lets look at it.

I won't comment about your 5 week forecast.  

;-)

Scott, All I can say is your trying to do the same thing I've done for the last 5 years!  I find it comical that you all keep doing both in taking credit for some cycle when it works and explaining it away when an observer points out the errors when it's off kilter....  
If the LRC works, how do you come up with a 10% variance allowance?  Do you mean skipping a few days here and there because it doesn't fit?    
I personally really don't care one way or another, but there are people on this blog that do and do hang onto the 50 something day cycle.  There are people who make their living plowing snow, etc.  I don't find this funny at all.  
Prove me wrong by throwing up a 5 week forecast on your website like I've done for the last 6 years.  
I'm not afraid of it, -----why are you???????
My 90 day "claim" has worked perfectly as did my claim last summer on how many days we'd have above 90----WHICH I WON  and you didn't.  Sorry....
In answer to your comment on my 5 week forecast----I do long long range weather.  On my site for the next 5 days is from KSHB and the NWS.
I no longer give away my information on how I do it as this seems to have become to commercial.
Good Luck...

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GaryB,

Where can I view your long range forecast.  The LRC is open for all discussion and critics are welcome.  It is hard for me to compare the LRC to what you say is the same and have been doing for years if you don't explain how you are coming up with your forecasts or let others view them.  You can send me an email if you prefer the info not be on the blog.

Jeremy