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Jeremy,

Did the storm for Friday/Saturday just go poof?  Also, have you noticed the record warmth in the Yukon after a brutal Dec./Jan.?  Whitehorse sits at 44 right now and they recorded a high of 50 yesterday.  Normals for Whitehorse are 9 and -8.  Does this spell trouble for the arctic air rebuilding to make a return for the stormy part of our pattern?

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No I wouldn't say poof.  I'll discuss more in the blog later, but the piece of energy coming out is pretty weak.  A surface low should form, but there really isn't moisture for it to work with...at this point.  That is why I never went above 30-40% chance for Friday.  There is also a couple of others things I will discuss about it.  The focus right now is on the snow chance of for this evening/tonight.

Jeremy

In the long range GFS model runs it does show the storm being stretched out.   It does look promising long term as all of next week has some energy passing by.   It is a long way off but the models are picking up on the active part of the pattern that we knew was sure to come.   Lets hope we get a good snowstorm or 2 and not be too warm again before the cold air wraps around.  

Joe

Every time I look at the map and I see that Denver, CO is warmer than our area.  They have been around 60 degrees every day for the past week it seems.  Even before that it seems like the majority of the time they are warmer.  Can we please trade temps with Denver?  We get one day this week at 60 degrees, they get a week and a half.

I just stepped out side North of leavenworth and you can feel the difference in the air from just a few hours ago, The cliuds have settled in, the temps have dropped and it feels almost moist. I will take the moisture in any form we can get it!!

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Now we just need to get some of that moisture to fall out of the clouds:)

Jeremy

My smile is about 2"s bigger scince I got back from the dentistas sticking a whole bunch of tubes in my mouth. ;-) It looks like there might be some good snow up in the sky.

What is also impressive is the areas near and in the TX panhandle that have temps in the mid to upper 60's with dew points BELOW ZERO!!!  No wonder why they have red flag warnings in the area.

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Good call Nick!  I talked to my friend in Texas last night and he was talking about how he has to discuss Red Flag Warnings in his weathercasts, but would much rather talk about a storm!

Jeremy

Cute kids Jeremy - I just read your yesterday's blog!  :)

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Thanks!  As someone said, they must look like mom:)

Jeremy

Also on the visible for ICT, although it is fading now, I noticed some stuff moving from north to south in eastern Colorado, I almost wonder with all of the dry conditions and high winds out there if that is not dust being picked up by the visible sat., it really is amazing what a good clear visible sat loop will show.

One of my friends in NORTH CAROLINA gets a big snow storm. Oh well:

... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND CROSS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME ALL SNOW BY LATE TONIGHT.

AREAS OF RAIN THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST... AND BY EARLY EVENING IN THE EAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT... THE SANDHILLS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FEW SPOTS TO RECEIVE UP TO 6 INCHES. AT THIS TIME... THE FAVORED AREA FOR A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXISTS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN PINES THROUGH RALEIGH... EAST TO ROCKY MOUNT AND NASHVILLE.

AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR IN THE TRIAD REGION AND THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN... THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN... RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING... WITH THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM TONIGHT.

Okie... quickie LRC question... Forgive me if it's been asked before.

Do you ever see subtle changes in the pattern between cycles (for easy sake let's say each cycle is 30 days, which then last over 3 months, which happen to correspond with the 4 seasons) which would then give an indication of what the next cycle would be. So cycle 1 and 2 would be more or less identical, but cycle 3 would have some differences between the prior two? My own thoughts would be yes, as you wouldn't just see some radical shift, the changes would take place over time.

Hope that makes sense.

H.

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Hippy that's a good question.  Hopefully I'm looking at this correctly.  I would say yes in the since the upper level dynamics change quite a bit from winter to spring and into summer.  With the jet stream lifting nort the strength of the storms could be impacted.  If you look at Gary's thoughts on the LRC he often mentions when we get into the heart of winter there could be a 'twist'.  That is why we are excited for the next active cycle which we just entered.  Could something be a hair different here or there to give us a major storm?  These are the things that are always fun to watch and really help us learn more abou the LRC.

If you get a chance ask Gary this question tomorrow too.  He has been following this pattern theory for 15 years!

Jeremy 

Moisture is a real relative thing right now as far as agriculture goes.  if you look out at a field, the ground looks dry.  But I was out yesterday working more fence posts and you get down about 6 inches and it is very moist.  I would say just a little moister than normal.  The ground about an inch down is dry, but that 1 inch also represents the freeze/thaw line.  Just an inch down there is ice.  At 6 inches no ice.  So no deep permafrost line this year.  The constant freezing and thawing cycles to blame for this.  Whats that mean?  A bad year coming for bugs.  Anyone who doesn't like ants, flies and bees won't be happy this summer.

I would think we'd need 2 or 3 weeks of a really deep deep freeze to get rid of those critters.

It's wierd, in my neighbourhood you can tell the areas in sun and shade most of the time, the shaded areas the grass is looking pretty manky, the mostly sunny areas the grass still has a pretty good tint of green to it.

Not a major fan of snow, but the cold I can deal with.

H.

davidmcg, If this isn’t strange!!!  Every time I typed (including right now) your blog name, either my computer or something else changed it to Davidic.  The only way I could stop it was to put a space in.  Also, I used lower case for the “d”, and it automatically capitalized it.

Anyway, I wanted to thank you for the good information you gave me for tree cutting.  My trees are locust trees.  The cutters will be taking the wood.  Did you need some wood?

Thanks, again, for your info.
Edna
P.S.  I just went back to see if I could correct your blog name, and it worked.

Uh oh, does this mean I should layer the ground with icecubes everyday 1' deep until srping davidmgc? ;-)

Could we see a dusting or anything? Or is this just a couple snow showers that MIGHT form around the area?

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I really wouldn't expect much...flurries, a snow shower or nothing.  Keep in mind the chance for tonight is pretty small.

Jeremy

Look at that 7-day, not too shabby for late January. St. Joe lawyer, thanks for reminding me pitchers and and catchers report in a mere 24 days 16 hours.

What is a "red flag" warning guys?

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The exact weather conditions vary a bit from one NWS office to the next for the criteria...but here is a summary.

A Red Flag Warning is a forecast warning issued by the NWS to inform area firefighting and land management agencies that conditions are ideal for wildland fire ignition and propagation. During and after drought conditions, and when the humidity is very low, and especially when gusty winds are forecast.   The Red Flag Warning becomes a critical statement for firefighting agencies, which often alter their staffing and equipment resources dramatically to accommodate the forecast risk. To the public, a Red Flag Warning means high fire danger with increased probability of a quickly spreading vegetation fire in the area within 24 hours.

Jeremy

Nick,
The winds were pretty strong across eastern CO today.  In fact, there was a 14-vehicle pleup on I-70 fifteen miles east of Limon CO.  There were reports of brown out conditions.  Probably you were seeing dust that was picked up.

Kristi

Forgot to mention that there are some flurries coming down here in south Raytown.

Kristi

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A little snow shower on the Plaza right now too.

Jeremy

Hippygoth - I think Jeremy nailed it from my perspective, seasonality does have impact to each cycle both in latitudinal location of features as well as strength of the features.

We have pondered if one cycle might look like another more than others in the cycle.  I would think cycles that share a similar jet location might look the closest.  It is some of this thinking that we are exploring in the evidence we are working on.

In evaluating each cycle, there are features that we expect to amplify or weaken.  We  do not know always exactly how things will pan out in the specific storms weeks or months in advance, but we do know the trends, long term longwaves and preferred storm tracks.  We will also know the general setup involved.  These provide huge advantages in forecasts.  It is the skill of the meteorologist using the LRC to factor all this in producing forecasts for sensible weather.

Always when a forecast busts using the LRC, it is the mistake of the interpretation of the pattern or influences in the environment surrounding the pattern such as more or less precip available and other smaller features impacting the mesoscale.

The pattern continues as it does regardless of the meteorologist forecasting based on it.  This is why it is so important to seperate the two steps of using the LRC.    While forecasts can provide evidence of the LRC based on the very long fuse of the forecasts, it doesn't work in reverse.  If a forecast busts, it is the meteorologist - not the LRC

The LRC is always there...its just up to us humans to figure it out and translate it to an accurate forecast.

Jeremy I am betting that your statement of only a dusting and a 3 day warm up isn't scoring you points with any of the Eskimo's in the region, even Gary.  But I'll take it and enjoy every minute.

On the red flag warning and increased dangers I have an observation.  We have been living in the rural area, when the fire danger level is high, it seems more burn permits are issued and the fire dept.'s can never figure out why they are so busy.  Never fails.  But at least those people called in and requested a permit so everybody knows what was burning when it got out of control.  Then, you have those people out here who build a brush pile 30 feet long, 10 feet high and about 20 feet wide and throw in a "cherry bomb" to get it started.  For those of you who do not know what a cherry bomb is, it is a tire filled with diesel.  Generally they will soak the pile in deisel, throw in the cherry bombs and then shoot a flare into it.  it almost always generates a great fireball.

Kristy, Thanks for confirming what I thought I was seeing, that was a large area of dust.
Well we have had wind and some snow flurries for awhile now, so at least there is something to watch tonight. Pretty soon the "wild" half of the LRC will be back;)

Good cloudy chilly morning to the weather team!!! Had a few flakes in the air earlier this morning with a fairly stiff NW wind but the cool thing was that the coyotes were a yipping this morning-it was awesome!!!

Awesome job the last few days Jeremy-you did an excellent job keeping everything updated-I didn’t get my usual chance to bother you yesterday as I was trying to make last minute arrangements for the Inauguration watch at school today-as usual I got the times wrong so we had to make a new schedule!!!

A couple random thoughts this morning in which I am going to go beyond where I should but as usual, I don’t mind making a fool of myself!! So, here it goes:

1. The water vapor imagery this morning is worth a thousand words (I think??) One can really see the next 3 days weather this morning. The strong NW flow affecting us this morning really is showing up as is the ridge that will give us our warm up tomorrow and Thursday-pretty awesome!! I bet if one could get a satellite shot of November 24th-25th it would look very similar to this mornings!!! I think one can also see the developing low off of the west coast that is going to come ashore around Thursday. To me, it is just a great look that really shows where we are in the pattern right now.

2. Here I go out on a huge limb: looking at things in the longer range on the models I think is quite fascinating. In varying degrees, the models are showing the development of the ridge in the Eastern Pacific which I think is the sign of the active period developing. The GFS operational the past few runs is not nearly as pronounced nor as long lasting as the GFS ensembles and while the ensembles kind of went with the operational way yesterday today they are back to showing a big build up of arctic air and pretty strong ridge in the Pacific. The 0Z Euro has for the past 3 runs at 240 hours really showed this strong ridge. While the GFS operational is a bit different, with the GFS ensembles and Euro showing this stronger/longer lasting ridge solution I think the models overall are really beginning to pick up on the active period developing.

3. Now the question is how will it all play out this time through-I remember in late November/early December when the first arctic air watch was issued the discussion was how will this play out in the sensible weather-the pattern was there but how would it play out. Now, we have the same deal-the LRC and the team (Scott mentioned that yesterday and again, the weather forecaster is the most important part!!) has showed the pattern and again, here it is. Now we get to watch it evolve and see what it will bring us this time. The models will have varying solutions with specifics until this pattern really gets established but the important item to me is that they have been locked on the formation of this active pattern for more than a week!!! As Specoli would say: Awesome totally awesome!!

I hope this makes a little sense-I am way beyond where I should be as far as what I should be typing but this is kind of what I have been thinking!! Now, can someone please wake up that secondary long wave in Oklahoma and cure its agoraphobia-we really need that thing to come to the party this time!!!! Maybe we could send out an e-vite!!!

Have a great day and welcome back Gary!!! As always, thanks for reading!!

Bill in Lawrence

Right at 3 A.M. it started snowing and its been slowly getting heavier ever scince, and it feels warm even though its 25 degrees. Weird Morn!

This may sound random, but do you guys remember how last year it seemed like we had a snowstorm every Tuesday? And now this year we have a big spike in temps on either Wed. Or Thurs. So weird.  What's up with the rollercoaster temps? My sinuses are ready to explode from all these changes in air pressure. I wish it would pick a temp and stick to it.  I tried finding the answer to this, forgive me if it has been brought up before.  :)