Good morning bloggers,
Very light snow is falling this morning, forming near the ground with this low cloud deck that should clear later today. There may be a minor dusting in some spots.
Are you ready for the active part of the weather pattern? Some very light snow is falling this morning and as we move into the last ten days of January the weather pattern is about to get a jolt of energy as expected and predicted weeks ago by the LRC. The ingredients will be coming together for a winter storm later this weekend as another Arctic front develops with a surface high possibly becoming about as strong as any have been this season. Look at the 72 hour 500 mb and surface forecast from the 06z run of the GFS:
We are going into the part of the pattern that happened in early December. This is that beginning of the active 25 day stretch we experienced with storm systems, small snows, some freezing rain, and wild ups and downs in temperatures as the storm systems moved across. Conditions never quite came together in our region to produce a major winter storm. Will the exact same thing happen again, or will we get a variation with at least one or two storm systems organizing right near Kansas City? It is just too early to tell. We do know the exact same thing won't happen, but it could still be close. We will get a late January and February version of the LRC. Look at the surface forecast below, valid Thursday night at midnight:
Once again, the above two maps are valid this Thursday night at midnight. A large Arctic high is forecast to develop over western Canada this week. Look at the surface high forecast up there. This is a 1055 mb high (31.15") which, if it happens, is the strongest surface high of the season. The high should rapidly weaken as its supporting ridge gets eroded away by some troughing up there, but the leading edge of the Arctic air, in the form of an Arctic front is about to blast through Kansas City. I know that many other forecasts (I am not going to call any of these national forecast out specifically, but there were many of them) expected a January thaw with no more Arctic air and even calling for a sudden shift to warmer weather in the second half of winter, but this January thaw doesn't fit this year's LRC and those of you who have grown to learn of what the LRC is all about would know there isn't a sudden shift. It is just the same pattern cycling over and over again. The ups and downs will continue in our region, and the Great Lakes states will barely get a break before they get thrusted back into the deep freeze.
The ingredients are there for a major winter storm Sunday through Tuesday of this next week. It will turn much colder with another Arctic blast. But, will the Kansas City area experience a major winter storm, or just another storm that we have gotten used to this winter? We will have to see how this develops in the coming days.
The exciting 25 day stretch of stormy and more active weather is right around the corner. It will be fun, exciting, and possibly frustrating again as we move through the next month. Are you ready? Here we go!
I go into much more detail on the LRC at www.LRCWeather.com , just click on the blog there, and look at the cycle lengths of the past few years. It is pretty interesting.
The pictures below are quite interesting. This first one is a picture of my dad, my brother Blake (half brother), and me. Blake is now the tallest Lezak, just a half inch taller than me at around 6' 1". I was the tallest Lezak until he passed me up a few years ago, which I am not too happy about. And, why does everyone in my family have more hair than me?
I visited my family in Palm Desert, CA over the weekend. It was 82 degrees each day out there, and yes it felt great! I took this next picture, a rare sunset shot over the California desert. Did you know there is a huge lake in the middle of the desert, or rather a sea. It is called the "Salton Sea" and is just east of Palm Desert, Ca. The Sea occupied the lowest portion of a structural basin called the Salton Trough. The Sea is a terminal lake, meaning that it has no outlets. The Sea's current elevation is around 227 feet BELOW mean sea level with the maximum depth of around 51 feet. The sun was setting as we took off Sunday night on our way back to Kansas City. It is just a rare shot over the desert with the water scene.
Have a fantastic day. We will be tracking these developments on the Arctic air, storm potential, and the beginning of the more active part of the weather pattern on NBC Action News tonight!
Gary