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More cold, so cold, no, no, cold!

It looks like a giant blue monster on its way to devour everyone. Please stay on the look out.


Hows our snow chances look for this weekend? So we are now starting the 25 day more active period right?

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Yes, but we aren't into that active part of the pattern yet. It is a week or two away.

Gary

Gary,

I am no fan of these arctic fronts. The air is too cold and dry.

What are models saying about a potential storm next week? Is the picture any clearer this morning?

I will definitely enjoy the two day warm-up? :^)

Bob

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Bob,

The models are having a hard time with the evolution of this part of the pattern.  And, there is still no organized storm showing up.

Gary

Gary--weren't you expecting a major storm to develop somewhere in the central plains this week? I believe that was in your long range forecast earlier this month. Did it end up forming somewhere else?

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No, I will post that forecast in a blog later this week for a reality check.  The forecast for January 24-31st was for a mostly dry period, even though the last time through the cycle we had a positively tilted storm move by. So, let's see what happens.

On the forecast for January 19-23rd I talked about a storm most likely forming east of us.

Gary

Gary, do a snow dance or something! Maybe 20-25 should be 2-5 inches at the rate we are going. This dry spell is getting old!

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We will learn about this third cycle of this years LRC soon.

Gary

So are all the possiabilites still wide open at this point reguarding sun. mon. and tue. - No storm yet but could be one and will it be east of us or over us? Could come through pos. or neg. tilted? And could be a major winter storm or a minor event? And worse case, nothing forms at all and we receive nothing.

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I doubt we receive nothing, but the chance of a major storm is slim.  The active part of the pattern is likely during the next 4 weeks, but we are just entering that part of the pattern within 10 days.  So far no major storm systems are showing up.

Gary

Gary

With these huge temperature contrasts that we are seeing, what do you think that means to us this spring as far as severe weather goes?  I know the storms always seem to be more powerful when there is a large temperature contrast.

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We will be analyzing the potential spring storm set ups soon.  I just haven't quite spent much time on it yet.

Gary

"On the forecast for January 19-23rd I talked about a storm most likely forming east of us."

Well, Jan 19-23 is now. Is that storm forming?

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It already just passed us by with nothing. The northern branch and southern branch didn't sinc up this time through and the big trough over the east lifting away is what could have been something for us.  All we got out of it was the flurry activity yesterday morning. 

Gary

O yeah, to add some actual data to the climate debate..."The temperature statistics are in, and the year 2008 ranks as the ninth warmest year for the globe on record, making it the coolest year since 2000, according to an analysis compiled by NASA...The average global temperature the past five years (and the last ten years) is the highest on record. The top ten warmest years since 1880 have all occurred in the past twelve years. So, despite the impressive cold blast in the Eastern U.S. this winter, the global climate is warming."

from http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters

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Rdub,

This should quiet the Global Cooling folks.

Gary

60's on Thursday = snow on Friday

At least that has been the SOP lately.

Im not a Global Cooling person but I still really dont believe in global warming.... its just weather. We will eventually cool back down, I bet this has happened before hundreds of years ago.

I am sure this will not quiet the global cooling folks.  See: "Coolest year since 2000" in the above post.  The global cooling folks will also complain that this data set for temperatures is the highest of the four main sets of data, is adjusted with parameters that are not accessable to the public domain, and does not agree with the raw data from satelites.  They will also refute the statement "The top ten warmest years since 1880 have all occurred in the past 12 years."  This statement was undoubtedly a misquote or a mistake.  Whomever came up (manufactured?) with this quote is undermining the credibility of NASA.

I think that the debate between cooling and warming is very interesting.  It is one that crosses different sciences and ways of looking at the world.  On one hand you can see how the planet has been warming and it seams to correlate to levels of CO2.  Others would argue however that historically there has always been periods of warming and that the planet is normally a much colder one.

Currently the world is too complex to understand and as a population we should be careful how much to meddle with it.  There is technology out there to clean the CO2 out of the air, but is it something that we should do?  By cleaning the atmosphere would we then cool the planet too much?  Hopefully understanding will come and we can live in harmony with our home.

Still just a natural cycle or the end of the world we can't do anything about it. The End Times are inching closer and closer.

I agree with you, twinkiekid.  It is way too complicated.
Different scientists have different perspectives.  Paleo-climatologists say the Earth is gradually cooling toward another Snowball Earth, and that the current ice age that we are in now will continue to deepen as long as the continents are placed where they are.

Oceanographers say that we reached our peak temeperature at the turn of the century and that the ocean cycles that caused all this warmth have flipped and will now cool the earth.  

Solar astronomers point to the Sun and note that the icecaps are melting on Mars and the surface temperatures of other planets have been rising, and thus has ours.

Climate Computer modelers maintain that the atmosphere is a series of positive feedback loops, and that trace gasses can cause a tipping point for climate to warm exponentially.

Insolation and IR absorption specialists swear that the CO2 levels we are talking about have a very minor role in driving climate.

Hansen of NASA swears that CO2 is going to raise temperatures enough to end our current ice age.

Whom do we put our trust in?
I have no idea.  However, I am confident about this:  When I hear someone say "The science is in!  It is indisputable!  We have reached a consensus!  All scientists agree except for a few fringe deniers!", then I know that this person is about to spout garbage and they cannot be trusted.

Remember, the ideas of natural climate cycles and human-induced climate change are not mutually exclusive. In fact, it is likely that both are occurring. Just because the climate changes in the absence of human influence does not mean that human influence cannot change the climate.

Can we all just agree to disagree on global warming vs. global cooling? =)

Gary,

December 10th called.  It would like its part of the pattern back.  12z GFS looks to deliver?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_192l.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081210.html

Granted, some of the other features on this prog have problems, but give the GFS credit..it is trying.  LOL

Wonder if the surface prog below is remotely possible....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_192l.gif

I would expect the SW flow to blow out any cold air ahead of the front for this.  Also, with the active WAA we have seen, temps will be fun ahead of this thing.

I love the surface low track on this prog, but would prefer more cold air ahead of this energy for a huge snow storm, but snow looks viable on the backside as this front drags down another arctic push.  Last time through, we got ~51 degree temp swing.  Looks possible again.

We also got a bit of precip/snow last time.  This time, maybe a bit more?

Look at this...and the frame before
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_216l.gif

Snow in TX/LA/MS again?  Where have I seen that before?  Oh yes..I remember, December 10/11th.

Perhaps I am making the pattern fit as I am blinded by the LRC...I suppose that storm could look like any other storm dropping snow in Louisiana this year.  

LMAO

Well said, RDub.
Asphalt has a lower albedo than forests.  Cities produce heat islands, crops interact differently with the atmosphere than grasslands and forests, man-made lakes change windflow and moisture patterns, and on and on.  Quantifying these impacts, however, is beyond our current capacity to compute.

Great LRC site Gary, I just now had a chance to review it.  
Thursday sounds to be wild, we still have snow drifts up in Springdale/McLouth area, snow drifts only though.  I bet we get are 1.5" of snow again, as that amount keeps repeating.  We need a twist or something.  I think it may come in this next active cycle.  The layout of your LRC on your new site is so accurate its scary.  I know you want that twist too, that was talking about.  The United States, well much of the United States have been BLASTED!  We need 6-8" to technically call blasted.  I would say its about our turn!   Have a great day team.

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I agree, and if you  look at my blog entry on the LRC blog I show that storm the last time through, and it doesn't have to be positively tilted.  The same pattern can produce negatively tilted storm systems so let's hope for that twist.  If we get two or three minor snows and one major one we will feel like this winter was a good one for snow enthusiasts, but if we don't get that one big one we will be left wanting more.

Gary

"The sky is blue!" yells one group of people.
"No, the sky is black!" yells back another group

This banter continues passionately until an observer notes that they both are right.  The two groups were on opposite sides of the earth.  One looking at day, the other night.

Moral of the story - global cooling/warming debate is a matter of perspective.  

There is data on both sides to make a claim.

"Perhaps I am making the pattern fit as I am blinded by the LRC...I suppose that storm could look like any other storm dropping snow in Louisiana this year."

Of course, that's all assuming that the 216 hour forecast actually verifies....

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It won't verify exactly like that 216 hour, but it has a good idea based on the LRC!

Gary

Gary,

Are you expecting next weeks trough to be positively tilted in our area?  Seemed to be what you were saying in the LRC blog, but just wanted to make sure..

Matt

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Matt,

On the latest GFS run it is negatively tilted and quite strong.  We have noticed years where almost no storm would come together, positively tilted storms for our region and then one suddenly was negatively tilted and we would get a big storm.  The same pattern can produce very different results near the ground.  So, there is hope.

Gary

Mattmaisch, I wondered the same thing.  The picture from December 10th and the picture for Jan 29 (GFS forecast 18z) show positive tilting trough.  

i am not liking the way this winter has been going...although expected, unfortunately.  i have been waffling on the existence of the LRC specifically over the past couple years.  first, i was convinced.  but, as time went on...there has been less and less that you can physically grab onto that relates specifically to something that has previously occured.  sure, there are natural oscillations of weather features on our planet that come and go regularly.  sure, there are 'cycles' out there that can help aid in weather forecasting(i call them the seasons).  and yes, it seems like, some years some places keep getting hit while others are left high and dry...so goes the saying the rich keep getting richer while the poor keep getting poorer.  there is nothing new about this either.  none of these ideas are new.  

I disagree with your last statement. "there is nothing new about this either".  The LRC is the only theory out there that describes a regularly recurring pattern and cycle, that we know of.

there are serious issues i have with the LRC specifically.  some of it is well documented in previous blogs going back a few years now.  

these longwave patterns that you are emphasizing this year have been noted and discussed independently of any LRC talk.   basically its not your idea.  it doesnt bother me that you are trying to carve out your own theory from existing knowledge(picture homer simpson and his chili spoon-which was according to legend was carved from a bigger spoon).  what bothers me is when someone claims aspects of theories as their own...and makes false statements about your forecast compared to others when it comes to specific events.  i understand the competition factor with other stations so i wont name names or specific instances, but it has been documented more than once here by others where you claim you did something that no one else even discussed that was just a plain fallacy.  

Again we disagree.  Can you come up with an example?  There is certainly the competition factor, but when it comes to the LRC it is absolutely out of the equation.  When we forecast the cold winter through the Great Lakes based on the LRC we did it based on what we know about my theory and other factors.  Can you find another forecast that predicted the brutally cold winter through the upper midwest and Great Lakes states?  We made that part of the forecast largely because of the strong mean trough located from west of Chicago north to Hudson Bay.  This year's version of that trough is unique and combined with other factors and other long wave features has created this year's LRC.

also, its emphasized in the LRC theory that these storms are recurring not at the surface, but in the mid and upper levels...maybe if we were all pilots that would be useful...but for us landlovers, it does us no good really because chaos rules at the surface.  examples: a little volcano erupts in the aluetians and we are stuck in a completely different situation that we would be otherwise.  a tropical storm strikes the western gulf and everything is thrown for a loop.  if its not a surface based cycling theory, it does little good for predicting weather that affects us at the surface...and i am surprised that more people dont bring that up...especially ones who are new to the theory.  

i have only lived here for four full years.  however, in that time, i have noticed characteristics of the weather here that are native to this area specifically.  unlike most areas out east where i am more familiar with...here we go through more prounounced wet and dry periods.  oddly enough, there are specific dates that seem stormier than others.  here, december and february are clearly big snow producing months relatively speaking.  on average january gets the most snow because its sandwiched between the two...but january typically has been a tamer month since i have been here.  also, january is climatologically the driest month of the year.  and, there always seems to be large warmups in january compared to the other two months.  the reason i mention these things is because i have noticed the 'active' parts of this years LRC fall convieniently into the most acitve parts of the pattern.  in fact, your description of the next few weeks would have fit perfectly last year at this time as well.  is it that your LRC is proving to be useful(spring and summer aside)? or is it just clever meteorologists playing the law of averages? on average, we are DUE for a large scale snow event.  it will likely occur within one week on either side of Feb 1st.  i am neither nostradamus or using the LRC.  it has been dry for a while, and we are due for one.  in the past four years,  early feb/late jan has been good to us snow wise.  i dont see why the 4 year trend wont  continue.  

Yes you can make this argument that the last week of January through the first week of February will have a good chance of a stormy threat.  That's fine. But, you have to look at the weather pattern.  Look at the comparisons we show.  This pattern is cycling regularly at close to 50-53 days.  It isn't a coincidence.  Just compare the four years you are talking about living here and I can show you the major differences in the weather pattern.  Keep following it with us and I will guarantee that you will be back to oscillating toward seeing what we are seeing again.  Why?  Because it is there! And we believe it is ground breaking and not accepted by the rest of the meteorological community, not because it isn't there, but because it is just not documented and quantitatively proven.  We are working on these areas!

i feel like im rambling now and being rather pessimistic.  i am hopeful that in 2009 a more concrete and quantifiable version of the LRC shows itself.  it has not happened yet.  but, if it can happen, it will happen with you guys!

as far as the climate change bit goes, i am not really as concerned about it as some are.  humans have survived in way warmer times(the middle ages) and way cooler times(several times).  we have the ability to adapt and overcome.  i find abrupt climate change to be the only detractor.  so little is known about it that what you find is mostly speculation.  its hard to deny that its been 'cold' for over a year now.  i think the global cooling people believe that the earth is just beginning the cooling phase.  we will see i suppose.  lets see how this summer pans out.  if this summer ends up being like last summer, then there may be some more conversation about it.  until then...watch out for supervolcanoes and meteors!

john

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John,

Wow, what a comment and response.  First of all the LRC does repeat at the surface as well as the other levels of the atmosphere.  It is just that the surface is more an influence of what is going on aloft.  So, an upper level pattern in November will likely produce a different surface pattern when it returns in January.  I will go to each of your statements above and respond under each one.

Thank you for participating and please come back in here and help us out.  We appreciate all of the criticism and support.

Gary

 

"and, there always seems to be large warmups in january compared to the other two months."

this is the "january thaw" that has been debated for decades....

http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/almanac/arc2002/alm02jan2.htm

Rdub - if the pattern is completely different, I will be forced to agree with you on this one and go back to the drawing board.

What if it does happen?  What if the pattern is similar and similar results occur in light of ANOTHER day this year where the same thing DID happen - ~50 days earlier?

Doesn't it seem odd that the GFS has a very similar looking output ~50 days apart?  Out of the millions of combinations, how did the GFS settle on that one?  In addition, suppose the randomness somehow did manage to do that...how is it then in every run, there are so many similaries for each day in the prior cycle?  

Independently, each of these items could be seen as random, but combined...the randomness is beyond minute if calculated.  Too much evidence is being provided - even if deemed subjective [post event 500mb map plots are created from quantitative data] to ignore the growing mountain of similaries - not just in one model, but any model, not just one location, but any location [in the Northern Hemisphere?]and not just this year, but any year.

What if this storm does produce snow in Louisana or the SE states?  What happens if the pattern does look similar?

Will it be more of the same?  "Well it snowed 50 miles further away than last time in Louisiana"  or "Well the degree of tilt was 5 degrees off from last time" or "The precip totals were .13 inches different".

I am all for critique and skeptism.  But is there going to be a time where the evidence is enough to say - "Ok, I see possibility"?

Granted, much work is to be done...but really, the human brain excels at pattern recognition and outperforms most computer simulations.  If it was just one map comparion, then I would be with you on the skeptism.  I was a huge skeptic for many years of the LRC...but at some point - and I guess it is very individual, there is a tipping of the scale to acknowledge what is apparent.

Denial beyond reasonable evidence or acceptance is beyond skeptisim. [yes, this statement is bated for additional discussion should you choose to take it - LOL]

;-)

Scott, my comment was less on the LRC in general and more on the practice of using a 216-hr model forecast map as evidence for it. If the 216-hr forecast map showed something that did not line up with the LRC, you would be saying "Well, it's just a model map, you can't trust that". But when it does line up with the LRC, suddenly it's valid evidence.

As for this comment "it snowed 50 miles further away", etc...I am still waiting for you, or Gary, or anyone, to give quantitative criteria by which we can judge the LRC. Obviously, things will not line up exactly, but how far off is too far? Ok, 50 miles is not too far, but is 100? 200? 500?

"The northern branch and southern branch didn't sinc up this time through"

Here's an example of needing some specific criteria to judge the LRC. One could argue that if the two branches "didn't synch up this time through", then the pattern did not really repeat. Or does the theory allow for differences like this on different times through the year?

pvt - valid thoughts.  I had many of the same in the past.  Can I ask a few questions and offer some thoughts?

Give me some examples of what you are referring to as other sources for long term long waves.  Yes, we hear about favored longwave axis..but where does that go with a phase change?  Yes, it goes away, and that discussion resurfaces again when it comes back.

Perhaps we can measure the LRC based on the interval of longwave axis metions?  LOL

There is a big difference between the LRC concept of long term longwaves and commonly discussed longwave axis.  Confusing the two is common, but they indeed are very different.  I believe there is more info on this on the lrcweather site.  If not, let me know and I can make that a blog entry.

Next thought regarding the surface reflection of the LRC.  The LRC is best shown and observed in the upper levels.  That said, the upper levels often drive the surface.  I have seen the cycle at the surface, but it takes more analysis.  Also, yes - there are more variables at the surface such as friction and seasonal variables such as moisture and other features.  This is why it is hard to explain or show at this level.  The pattern is there based on upper air reflection, but to those new to the theory, it is much noisier to view.

Jeremy had an excellent post on Saturday showing more of a surface view of the LRC.  Perhaps this is what you are seeking?

The LRC is a tool.  It is a method to understand long term patterns as well as short, but in the end, be it the numerical models or tea leaves, it is up to the forecaster and his/her skill to interpret it and make a sensible forecast.  I would argue that the impact to those of us living on the surface is a clear relationship between the method of analysis and the forecaster's skill in translating it to the surface.

Yes - there are seasonal norms.  The affect the climate regardless of which long range modeling you prefer.  Dryness/wetness/geography and other features are in play.  No different than standard forecasting using your own model output [doesn't everyone have one of these?  LOL], the forecaster still needs to apply local and seasonable variables to make the best forecast.  

I understand the skeptism as to why this year's active pattern seems to allign with the most active part of the jet.  But what about the previous cycle with a more sublime pattern sandwiched in between?  How does this play out in Spring as the jet is retreating and weakening?

It isn't just one cycle...it is several that should be considered.

"just clever meteorologists playing the law of averages" - Trust me..we aren't that clever.  LOL.  Besides, managing the other meteorologists using the LRC with success would be a burden to keep us all on the same page and consistent with the same data.  Can you imagine?  The daily conference calls would get out of control!

Its not a gimmick.  Its not some ploy to see how many people can be duped.  If it wasn't something that we observe and honestly see, I assure you that much less time, effort, and resources would be used.

"on average, we are DUE for a large scale snow event. "  Statistically, this doesn't hold water.  Each day we are just as likely as unlikely.  I think Notes had a great post about this in the past regarding this type of thinking.  

" am hopeful that in 2009 a more concrete and quantifiable version of the LRC shows itself."  It will.  It is underway.  Much to be shared on this as we begin testing.  We are working on a mathematical model.  It is still under design currently, so there is not much to share...but soon as we begin to test...more will be available.

Ok..between you and Rdub, my fingers are cramping...LOL

pvt_murphy - you are right that humans have survived numerous "climate changes", but just wanted to clarify that the middle ages were quite a bit cooler than "normal". It has been referred to as a "little ice age" during that time period with the "year of no summer" as well. It didn't start warming back up until the 19th century.

On another note, since the sun is in an abrupt period of quiet activity, I would believe we are moving to a cooler period. The sun influences our weather more than any other factor.

The 216hr was not meant as evidence, simply a trend that looks familiar.  Nothing is evidence in a model prog.  The only evidence is what has already happened...but let's try a bit of a turn around here.  When we point out comparisons of days past, we get blasted for only showing historical matches.  When we project out, we get blasted with that.

So..which is it going to be?

"but how far off is too far?"  That is a tremendous question.  This is one I have been working on to figure out.  Clearly, it has to be a range..but what is the tolorance?  I can't seem to find anything that gives me guidence on what the tolarance threshold should be in building a LRC model.

LOL.

All seriousness, that is a good point.  I think typically you can assume a standard variance based on deviations or a assumptive range to actual of x%.  Statisitics likes to use 95% confidence levels, so maybe 5% variance is ok...but for long range forecasting, perhaps even 15% is tolorable.

It likely would be a sliding scale based on how far out the forecast is progged.  I wonder..[thinking out loud], I am sure there is post-analysis guidelines on numerical output accuracy..perhaps we just copy that for consistency.

"Or does the theory allow for differences like this on different times through the year?"  Another great question.

Seasonal variance.  In this case, the jet phasing is something to consider, and generally is most prevelant in the stronger jet pattern.  Along with this thinking, you can consider location variance.  While the pattern cycles, the jet location will move the waves with the jet.  So, what happened once in ND, might happen in SD the next time around.  Numerically, and using basic stats, there would be no correlation.

But the human eye can see that it may be correlated.  There are other mathematical means to account for variance, and these are being designed/explored as we speak for the LRC.

"Statisitics likes to use 95% confidence levels, so maybe 5% variance is ok"

That's not really what a 95% confidence level means. 95% confidence does not mean that the variance (or error) is 5%. The actual range of a 95% confidence interval can be much more or less than 5% of the predicted value.

For example, in an opinion poll, the "margin of error" reported for the poll is really the 95% confidence interval. This does not mean that the margin of error is always +/- 5%; it is more or less depending on the sample size. What it means is that it is 95% likely that the true value is within the margin of error.

RDub said:
"The northern branch and southern branch didn't sinc up this time through"
Here's an example of needing some specific criteria to judge the LRC. One could argue that if the two branches didn't synch up this time through", then the pattern did not really repeat.   ---- I agree since it was not the same as last time it was not a repeat it changed. So I would say this is a slight blow to the LRC.  More important to me anyway is  the upcomming active pattern and if it verfies per LRC. If it does not, then no excuses or spin, its back to the drawing board for the LRC. If it does, full steam ahead.  I think and hope it will verfy.

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Good points!  The active part of the pattern will return.  But, for our region we have to remember what it meant for us. We didn't have on major winter storm systems.  We did end up with a major storm the night of the severe thunderstorms, freezing rain, then brief snow at the end. That storm can be considered major, but was mostly a rain event.  The other storm systems in the active part of the pattern went by with some small snowfalls and huge temperature swings, some light freezing rain, some drizzle, rain, and it was a bit wild.  But, it didn't produce that one memorable winter storm. So, for our part of the nation this is what we should expect again.  The point is that it will still be a return of the more active part of the pattern.  If you are expecting a mammoth winter storm this year's pattern is going to have a hard time doing it.  I am not saying it won't happen, but the probability is low.  So, we will not have to be going back to the drawing board.  We will continue to pursue the evidence and proof.

Gary

Scott, here's a possible resource for you to consider...maybe you've already seen this or something similiar...http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/sttimser.html

The page is about statistical analysis of time series, like weather patterns. It seems that the Spectrum Analysis might be what you're looking for. "A much cited example for spectrum analysis is the cyclical nature of sun spot activity (e.g., see Bloomfield, 1976, or Shumway, 1988). It turns out that sun spot activity varies over 11 year cycles. Other examples of celestial phenomena, weather patterns, fluctuations in commodity prices, economic activity, etc. are also often used in the literature to demonstrate this technique. To contrast this technique with ARIMA or Exponential Smoothing, the purpose of spectrum analysis is to identify the seasonal fluctuations of different lengths, while in the former types of analysis, the length of the seasonal component is usually known (or guessed) a priori and then included in some theoretical model of moving averages or autocorrelations."

"The strongest Arctic high of the season is now rapidly developing over Canada. "

Gary, Haven't you said that about every arctic high this season? or are they really getting stronger ever time? because that last one we dipped below zero...and it does not look like this next one will get us as cold

Brent

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Brent,

They have been getting stronger.  But, this one will likely be the strongest surface high, but not the coldest air.

Gary

Well - as for a HUGE snowstorm - I hope we don't get it since I totaled our 4-wheel drive in December on an icy hill!  We have a light weight pick-up now with NO wheel drive, and we live in a rural area - I've been laid off and my hubby just started a job.  Big snow is gonna equal little money for us!  :)  On the other hand, a couple years ago in December, we got over 12" out by us - and I can't say I cried about it!  We didn't have our beagle then - I would have loved to see him try to get around in it!  

And by the way -- all you LRC-discussers - don't you ever break for lunch?  lol

Laura

Also, I know you said it last year (when I first started on this blog), but I sure can't remember your answer:  exactly what constitutes a "major winter storm?"  Seems like you said 6" or more, but I could be wrong ... thanks.

Gary said-"So, for our part of the nation this is what we should expect again" refering to the previous active pattern.------ Thats all I am asking for and all I am expecting. If we had a big winter storm and lots more snow and rain than the previous active pattern, then it would not be a repeat it would be a major change from the previous pattern and a major change from the LRC forcast for the upcomming active part. That being said, you mentioned there can be a twist next time around that might give us more I hope that is the case and not a twist that would give us less precip.

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Actually, not necessarily. We were very close to having a major winter storm here.  The February version may have everything come together once or twice. And, I am expecting, perhaps hoping more than expecting, it to happen.  But, will it?

Gary

Gary, your first response was right...the odds of a major winter storm are pretty low. But if it is going to happen, this is the right time of year for it to happen. I think it's sort of telling that the most "major" event from December ended up with severe t-storms and not big snows...could be an interesting Spring.

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Rdub,

I am sure I will bring this up in a blog entry soon, but an amazing thing about this winter so far is that there hasn't been a major winter storm anywhere in the entire viewing area.  I can't remember a year where there wasn't at least one or two somewhere between the Iowa border and Wichita, KS.  There hasn't been one........YET!

Gary

"If we had a big winter storm and lots more snow and rain than the previous active pattern, then it would not be a repeat it would be a major change from the previous pattern and a major change from the LRC forcast for the upcomming active part. "

Let me take a crude example illistrate a thought.  You are standing on the side of a road, and you notice a red car pass 15 feet in front of you as it continues on.  You notice a blue car then a yellow car, then...a red car again, but passes 5 feet in front of you.  Then you see a blue car then a yellow car..then you see a red car coming and it runs you over.

Point is - you need to stand further off the street.  LOL...ok..all humor aside, this illistrates a pattern..and a recurring pattern at that.  Even if the cars don't pass exactly over the same point, they are in relative proximity to be noted.  In addition, they remain in sequence throughout the duration.

Seasonal changes will move the waves in the pattern up and down the United States and Canada.  Also, based on seasons, different elements are introduced at different times.  

Lets suppose in January, a strong upper level low passes through northern KS up into Iowa.  The surface reflection in January may produce a strong cold front with a chance of likely liquid precip [being south of the ULL]- albeit not much moisture available.  So, perhaps it is recorded as a day with a temp drop/frontal passage and trace to light precip.

Take that same day in the pattern in May.  A weaker upper level low than January passes along in northern Nebraska up to Wisconsin.  Ahead of the front, moisture is available and the atmosphere becomes convective and very unstable ahead of the front.  In addition, a dryline forms off the reflective surface low and passes through Northern KS into the panhandle of TX from a surface low in Nebraska.  KC now is warm sector of a potential severe outbreak along the dryline.

This day may be recorded as heavy/severe thunderstorms, moderate rainfall, and a mild temp swing [as cold air is harder to get in May than January].

Two events recorded much differently, spawned from a similar ULL flow and affected by seasonal norms to have different outputs.  This is why it can be dangerous to only think of the LRC at the surface.  The LRC is viewed in a very broad scope - Northern Canada down all the way to the Gulf -  coast to coast.  It also looks in the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic for features there as well.  It is a movement, or series of waves in a pattern.  The pattern is very broad, but can repeat even very small waves.

It is much broader in a flow than any one localized area or sensible weather.  It is the skill of the meteorologist to take the pattern in the broad flow, apply seasonal knowledge, meteorologcial experience and make a forecast for the surface.

In this sense, the pattern certainly could be repeating, but create different sensible weather.

Rdub - yes..you are right on the 95%.  I got in a hurry and made quick quip without really thinking deeper into that comparison.  As far as your link, thank you.  I have bookmarked it.

We are taking a similar approach right now.  Not sure if you read all/any of the posts on lrcweather.com, but we have talked about some approches to model the LRC.  From simple regression analysis to neural networks, we are working to classify, define, and quantify the elements of the LRC.  One minor example for those that have noticed is what I call a regime, Gary calls a phase.  We both are talking about the same thing with different words.  We will be tightening this up.

The second step is to identify the variability within the cycle and account for a method to handle it.  There are many functions available to do this.  Because the LRC has variability of location [jet location], of time [cycle flux], and intensity [seasonal] - this isn't a simple Intro to Algebra equation.  I have already banged my head against the wall a few times trying to make linear/non-linear associations.

The third step is to find the right kind of data to use as the control.  We are starting with 500mb daily heights from around the nation.  If successful, we may be able to expand into other layers in the atmosphere or different elements such as temp anamolies or moisture or things along that line.

The fourth step is to test.  Test test test.  Test again and solidify the model. At that point, probably take a breath and get ready for how to communicate the results and the best way to go forth with the model.  Peer review, collaboration, communication, documentation etc all go into this stage.

In addition to all this, we are also researching teleconnections and some interesting concepts in how it relates to the LRC.

I know that it doesn't seem like much happens quickly with this theory, but would remind folks that others such as the MJO and ENSO took many many years to have it put together.  We are working on it...

Rdub - I for one..and don't speak for Gary, am expecting a wicked Spring/early Summer.  The storm path that hoses us on snow [unless we can just get ONE of these ULLs to deepen enough to just go 100 miles south!}  is favorable for warm sector placement.

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I am not sold on that yet, Scott.  We will analyze this more closely very soon.  My boss wants me to do an LRC spring forecast special segment in March.

Gary

Hey gary, what are you thinking for up here in nebraska late next week?

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Maybe a little bit of snow, but it appears this storm would track south of you.  It may snow a bit Saturday through Monday up in Nebraska, a little bit anyway.

Gary

Scott, looks like I need to go over to lrcweather for some of these details. Sounds interesting. It isn't easy, I know, but if it was, everyone would be doing it.

Gosh Gary, first you tell us no winter storm, now you're not even sold on an active spring! WAAAH!

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I know!  But, it can't always be exciting can it.  We are all experiencing this winter of "not too much" here in our local area.  Hopefully we will get a signature storm in this next active phase. And, remember I didn't say that it wouldn't be an active spring. 

Gary

Hi Gary,
I haven't had a chance to keep up with the blog today, and wow, looks like some ineresting reading!  I just skimmed over it then flipped over to your lrc website and the maps aren't showing up over there.  Anyone else having trouble? Just thought I'd mention it.

So how is Sunday through Tuesday looking? Is the snow gonna come or is it still a mystery?

I meant saturday through monday

If Nostradamus was wrong then people about 100 years from now are gonna look back and think we're all dumb for being so bad to humble Earth.

pvt_murphy, great post, you conveyed a lot of the same thoughts I have on the weather/climate in this part of the country, but I am just a casual observer, you did it in a fashion I could not. There was just one flaw I found in your entry, you actually uttered that horrible phrase that would send some on this blog into attack mode, dare I repeat it... "the law of averages" WHEW! Dude, you're lucky you didn't get GOOGLED!

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Yes,

Pvt Murphy came in strong today.  All I can say is let's keep paying attention as the days, weeks, months, and years go by.  We are learning more by having this blog!

Gary

Hey Gary, Where do you get or how do you make those protein waffles? :)  I love healthy breakfasts. Yum!
Wonderful job, have a great night!
Janet

00Z GFS not encouraging at all.  Once again this model would suggest that even if there were a storm or two around in the next 7-10 days, the temps may have a difficult time supporting snow.  That's IF there's a storm.  One thing you can probably count on for the remainder of the winter is if we are lucky enough to get a major storm nearby, the temperature at some level of the atmosphere will be above 32 degrees.  That much, we can probably bank on.  This has a very good chance to be two years in a row with next to nothing worth talking about in regard to significant snow.  I think the key is not to wait for the snow to come to KC, but rather to go to the snow, otherwise prepare to be frustrated and disappointed around here!

Have a good evening..

Matt

Exactly Matt, this is why dual home ownership is so nice.  I recommend some places in Colorado for a second home to enjoy the winters.  There is a town at 9,000ft elevation called divide which is really close to my favorite town Woodland Park (8,500) elevation.  It gets you up in the mountains, and is right up the road from a really neat town called Manitou Springs, and the much larger Colorado Springs at 6,300 ft in elevation.  When I was stationed at Fort Carson in Colorado on the weekends me and my buddies would take 4x4 SUVs up into the mountain passes.  It is amazing the scenery while a heavy snow is falling in the afternoon.  

i have been so upset this winter! i love the snow but the only real snow weve gotten, i was out of town. i miss sleding. are our tempretures this winter due to global warming?