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Good Morning Gary!

Currently sitting at 31 with a SSE wind at 2 MPH here in KCK. Looking forward to one more last day before old man winter comes back in full force to make a visit. I wanted to comment on the last blog about winter weather here in Kansas City. I have been in the Kansas City area for nearly 27 years except for a brief stop in Norman, Oklahoma for 4 years during my college days, and Kansas City has always had smaller scale snow events on the order of 1-3 inches. Those are VERY VERY common here, to me significant snow would be anything 6 inches or greater. Now of course I have seen snow storms produce more then 6 inches here in Kansas City several times, and even as recent as last year.

Now while some bloggers may be frustrated with the lack of snowfall here in the Kansas City area, you need to remember to keep things in perspective when we have a snowstorm in the Kansas City area, Receiving more then 6 inches is not really the so called “norm” in a snowfall event here in Kansas City. Most “significant” snowstorms I have seen have occurred when the storm is convective in nature, and some heavy events have occurred in early to mid fall and early spring. Now of course when the snowbands end up being convective in nature, you are going to end up having short distances between “significant” snow accumulations to nothing. To me this is the norm in Kansas City when we have a heavy snowfall. I honestly cannot remember any time the ENTIRE Kansas City area received more then 6 inches in such a widespread area.

January has always been a tough month in regards to winter events here in Kansas City, and as records would show..it of course is one of our drier months of the year. In regards to late January to mid February and the LRC, of course our chances of seeing a snowstorm or two are likely to occur, that would be a safe bet any year. But I must say in my own opinion, the comparison maps that were posted by Jeremy Nelson on Saturday were absolutely “amazing”. I have been a part of this blog for several years now, and have seen it come a long way, as well as some of the more “seasoned bloggers”. I remember seeing Scott post blogs questioning the “LRC” and always having a thirst for more knowledge about it, it took awhile for Scott to get where he is today in regards to the LRC. I don’t think it is something that you can just look at a couple of times and see it all fall into place, at least it was not for me. It has taken me at least 3 years to get to the point where I am at with the LRC now, but my research into the LRC has not gone anything beyond what I see here on the NBC blog.

That’s my post for the today and probably the longest one ever! Whew!

Bryan

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Bryan,

You have outdone yourself today.  Great comment and it will make Bill in Lawrence proud.  He comes in early with power comments, but he is probably sitting there this morning going how can I out do this. 

Anyway, great points.  Yes, it does take a couple of years to learn about the LRC. It is almost something you have to experience for yourself.  Oh, it is there to analyze and see, but just ask Jeremy.  It took him over a year of "what is this" before it clicked. 

To your point on Kansas City snowfall...yes it is hard to have more than our typical 1 to 4 inch snowstorm. But, this season is beginning to stand out as our entire viewing area is still waiting for a major snowfall.  A 6 inch or bigger snow has to happen somewhere in the viewing area. I can't remember a year that the entire viewing area was missed all season long. We will test this out with this next active period.

Have a great day and thank you for participating.  Great job!

Gary

Whats the twist?

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Let's hope for one otherwise the same thing will happen again with some small snows huge temperature swings.

Gary

Gary:

Good starry January morning to you sir!!! Very nice out this morning indeed!!!

Man-there was some great conversation yesterday on the Blog-I wish I had the capabilities to add something of merit but I just don’t feel that I do but man it was great reading for sure!! I of course in my little 5 cent head firmly believe in the LRC and to me I have seen enough reoccurrence in following it the past 3 years that I am fully convinced!! Of course in the end and I don’t think this can be said enough, it is the forecaster that makes the LRC work-it is there but the forecaster has to not only see it, but be able to articulate it into a forecast that is where you and the team excel beyond measure-just my little thought!!

Ok, I am going to really leave my comfort zone here and probably make myself look really foolish but here it goes:

1. I am looking forward to following the front later today. Looking at the 6Z GFS it appears the wind shift line makes it through here early tomorrow morning and while the surface temperatures do indeed cool off, the 850 temps stay pretty warm-I wonder if that will not produce a typical cloudy chilly January day for a good part of tomorrow. Will also be interesting to see just how far the front makes it-the GFS has it go pretty far but may be something to watch. Foolish thought number one!!

2. Looking at the next 7-8 days one item I think is interesting (with the caveat that I think this is what I am seeing) is that the models do indeed have the ridge retrograding out into the Pacific but as of the 0z and 06z runs of the GFS and the Ensembles and 0z run of the Euro, they are showing the ridge having a more of a SW to NE axis than we say from say December 3rd to 12th when the ridge was more North/South. I find this interesting because in past runs the operational and ensembles had the ridge in a more North/South axis over the next 7-8 days which was then setting the stage for the deeper North/South in the early February time frame. Be gentle as this is what I think I am seeing???

3. With number 2 in mind, the SW/NE axis of the ridge allows it to flatten easier in the later model runs giving us a look of a more zonal type flow in early February and also plays havoc with what one would expect with the energy for next week-this axis next week allows that energy to get kind of caught in the SW but more importantly, it allows the later periods to flatten out. Am I even close to making a good point here LOL!!!

4. I think the models are having some issue getting rid of the over-all NW flow to the pattern mainly because as I said I believe in the LRC but also because prior runs of the operational and ensembles have indeed showed a more pronounced N/S axis to the ridge in the Pacific. It will be interesting to follow the runs the next few days and see what they show for sure!!

5. For us to get a good storm in this year’s pattern, I really think that the secondary long wave over Oklahoma has to wake up and come out and play. It tried in early December when we had the front and that little wave spin up over the 4 corners but its agoraphobia kicked back in. If we could get an arctic front to hang up for a spell and have that secondary trough kick in man we could have a good one. This is probably asking a lot of this pattern as for one the fronts have blown right through and secondly man that dominant long wave is just well dominant!!

6. Finally in addition to the severe weather potential this Spring the other item I am wondering about is a late freeze and or cloudy windy late April/early May days with temps in the lower 40’s. Having a trough sitting over the Great lakes and spinning for 3-4 days gives us some miserable late spring weather and I just wonder if when in the NW flow regime we don’t get something like that. Nothing worse than a cloudy windy day in the 40’s in early May!!! Also, as we clear out and the winds relax we may flirt with a freeze as well. Just a thought.

Ok-I have for sure said enough and I had to type this very quickly (the boys are waking up!!!) so I just hope there is one kernel in here that makes a little sense!!! Have a fantastic day and enjoy the warmth today-it is going to be nice for sure!!! As always thanks for reading!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Good observations, and as you know well after experiencing the LRC with us the models will come around.  The features that happened in December were deep and strong.  I am expecting a similar variation in February, but will the variation be just different enough to have everything come together into hopefully one major winter storm. I place the bets on probably not. But, I still hold onto some hope.  We will find out in the coming weeks.

Gary

P.S.: You got me today-no Get Smart Affect!!!!! LOL

I must admit, I don't understand much of what Billinlawerance is talking about, but it is a good read.  I just want snow. lol. I think if I read enough, I will probably learn something along the way.  So, I continue to read and enjoy.  And a comment for Brett, I don't think I will ever look at a crossiant (cresent) moon the same way again, that was my first laugh of the day, and we all need one, so thanks for that!  Hope everyone enjoys the weather and has a great day!
Shelly

The forecast for the first part of January was pretty close, but that is reasonable to expect since it was within 5-15 days of when you put the forecast out - easily within range of most mid- to long-range models.  

You think that forecast for the 19th-23rd was "almost flawless"?  Really?  I don't see any storm that formed "just east of us" over this period, nor one in the next couple of days.  Sure, there is a trough, but if you're going to start labeling troughs as storms, well then I guess every forecast will no doubt be a huge victory.


What do you keep meaning when you say "February Twist"?  I've seen you use that phrase repeatedly in your long-range outllooks, but it is never defined.

It seems like you're simply holding that as your trump card so that no matter how the forecast turns out - you can claim victory.  

We get a huge storm bigger than previous ones this season - bam - it's a hit because it has the *twist* of stronger dynamics ("the jet is further south..." or whatever).  We end up with next to nothing and the "twist" was simply that the energy wasn't present for whatever reason.  In any event, you win.

It reminds me a bit of someone saying "Let's flip a coin - heads I win, tails you lose."

In any event, I don't know how one can yet do an "accuracy check" for the future yet - so I, for one, will reserve judgment for the Jan 24th-31st and February periods.  

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Notes,

Here is what I said in the forecast for this period: "but it strengthened just east of us the last time through the cycle and I am concerned that this is another storm that will not quite get its act together here".  And, what happened?  The trough developed east of us and a storm didn't quite get its act together here!  So....this is accurate.  How can you debate this part?

And, yes, I shouldn't have called it an accuracy check on these next two periods.  Anyway, I see your points.  The "twist" is not to allow for me to say anything that happens counts.  Absolutely not.  Let's see if the active part of the pattern returns, which I am confident it will. And, I will show how it is the December pattern repeating.  We have shown these comparisons for weeks now.  It is a very consistent message we are laying out there.

Keep us sharp Notes!  But, so far there isn't much to criticize!

Gary

Notes, seems like the NWS has used the 'twist' before too! Check this out... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=eax&storyid=21107&source=0

   Notes said----You think that forecast for the 19th-23rd was "almost flawless"?  Really?  I don't see any storm that formed "just east of us"-- I agree I think under the accuracy check you should have said something like " this time period was not quite as good accuracy wise "  Gary, dont try to make everything fit perfect its not going to it is impossible. Its OK to be off on occasion. If you show us what happened and confess when the forcast was off it will give you more crediability in the long run. -- "The twist" I also agree this can be used as an out card in some peoples minds. But its ok in my opinion,  because it is impossible for the pattern to come back around exactly the same, there has to be some kind of twist. With all this being said, Kshb is the best weather team hands down.

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I am just an easy grader, and I am fair to everyone.  If a part of the forecast is wrong I will be the first to admit it.  In that 19th to 23rd time frame the forecast is accurate in my opinion. I am not sugarcoating anything.  I don't do that.  As I said, perhaps I am an easy grader. 

The "twist" will happen, but I won't twist my forecast around to make it fit. It is down on paper and we will grade the forecast in the coming days and weeks.

Gary

So is there any kind of chance that a storm could show up between now and then?  I am still kinda hoping.  I am ready to play in some SNOW!!  And I don't mean the measly stuff.  lol
Becky

Big temp swings on a daily basis here in N Texas due to very dry air.  Here are some temp stats for Mineral Wells, Tx from the NWS:

Yesterday's low:   27
Yesterday's high:  73
Today's low:  27
Today's predicted high:  82

The arctic front gets here Fri. nite, with highs going from mid 70s tomorrow to 40s on Saturday.  Still no rain.

Hey Notes you seem to have some problem with this blog. Every time Gary says his forecast was pretty accurate, look who shows up and talks crap about how it wasnt perfect.... If you think you can do a better forecast then do it and stop criticizing every thing that Gary says. Does 6 years in a row most accurate not mean anything to you? Geeez so annoying.
Phillip

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Phillip,

Notes is just tough!  He wants us to be honest and hold us accountable if we aren't.  That is all he is asking.  So, give him some slack too.  I am not saying Notes shouldn't come in with something positive once in a while.  I think he has once or twice.

Gary

It's a debate....a lot of the bloggers have debates with Gary and others on this blog.  Notes has been on here a while...its just something they do.  I kinda enjoy seeing other disagree with others and getting a debate going because a lot comes out and sometimes, some of the people that don't know too much about all the details of forcasting can learn a lot.
Becky

Good Morning Bloggers!

I think it is time to start looking at the Spring and Summer forecast for this year.  I personally believe that I know enough about this years LRC to begin looking at what it will be like here in Kansas City in the coming months.  I can say right now that there will be some of you who disagree with me and say its too early, but if you really think about what has happened so far this Winter and look at the LRC, hopefully you all will understand what and why I am saying this.

Like I said on the blog a week or so ago, I am very disappointed with this Winter.  Our snowfall around the Kansas City area has been extremely low and despite what Gary says about what he thinks will happen next month, I don't see us getting an overload amount of snow.  And I'm not so sure that we will get overly cold either.  I'm sure we will have some snow and it will get very cold at points, but I don't think 'the worst is ahead of us.'  I hope I'm wrong and if I am, then I will be more than happy to admit it.  I have had 11.1" of snow so far here in Lee's Summit and I really don't see us getting to my forecast of 22".  This winter has been 'dry' and somewhat 'mild' if you ask me.  Yes we have had some very cold days, but we have had some major temperature swings and brought our temperatures way above average.

I really believe that this Spring and Summer are going to be very dry and hot.  If you break the snow down into melted precipitation (rainfall) we have had an extremely dry Winter.  If this is how the Winter is going, then according to the LRC, this will continue into the Spring and Summer...right?  And if we are getting these major temperature swings now and our temps are sometimes getting into the 50's to near 70 degrees at times, then I can only imagine what our temperature swings will be like when we get into the Summer months.  Something tells me that we will have no problem getting to 100 degrees or higher this Summer.  I think it will be very dry in the way of rainfall this Spring and Summer.  I see the chance of us being in the 'much below average' area this season.  When it comes to severe weather, I think it will be very quiet and below average.  I'm sure there will be some severe weather outbreaks at some point, but overall, I think it will be very quiet, nowhere as bad as last year.

Overall, here is what I am thinking...(for KC)
PRECIPITATION: Below to Much Below Average
TEMPERATURES:  Above to Much Above Average
SEVERE WX:  1 or 2 Severe Wx Outbreaks

I hope you all have a great day!

Jacob Honeycutt

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Jacob,

You and a lot of other bloggers are coming in strong today.  Good job.  I will have my spring weather outlook in a few weeks.  But first hold on, you are in one of the rare spots in the viewing area that has had over 10 inches of snow so far and we are only about halfway through with the snow season.  So, you could easily end up with your forecast of 22 inches.  This shouldn't leave you disappointed.  The problem is we just aren't in a great pattern for our region.  And, we are still waiting for a "great" moment this winter.  This is why I believe you feel this way.  Let's see what happens during the next four weeks and then we can look ahead.

Gary

Like me, I still have a lot to learn about the weather and I find it facinating to get everyone's view, wether it be positive or negative..that way I have many angles to look at things...
becky

What Becky said.  Notes and Gary have been going back and forth for years.  There would be no reason for this blog if everyone took what Gary said as Gospel.  I think it is interesting and it keeps the weatherguys sharp.  

Jacob I hope very much that your forecast is right!! It would be a perfect Spring and Summer for me if was dry and hot!!!  Bring on the sun!!!!!!
--deb

Jacob,

While your logic seems correct, are you forgetting about the precipitation events that were not snow this winter?  Didn't we get quite a few gully washers?  I don't think you can just look at the snow events and translate those to precip is all i am saying, this year it seems like we had our greatest precip when we were above the freeze line.  

Hey Gary,

How do you think the storm we experienced on December 27th may affect us when it cycles through again.

I am expecting a big warm up and cool down, but what about possibly severe weather again, and freezing rain, then snow later.

The 27th was one of the most exciting and interseting day of weather I have expereinced, and it will be interesting to see how it will affect us next time.

Alex

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Alex,

We are around December 2nd right now, so that would place the December 27th event around 25 days from now or around the 15th to 20th of February.  We will have to see how it sets up.

Gary

Bill - interesting point about the ridge orientation.  As you look Dec 3 - 12th, the ridge is somewhat dancing with is partner ULL to its south.  A bit of a boxstep if you will.  It was a high over low set up with an equilibrium seeking to be found.

While the ridge was growing, I don't think it was fully set until around the 12th onward.  About that time the dance changed a bit and the high pressure kicked that ULL out a bit further west giving it some room to work.

If you look from about the 13th on, the orientation was more SW to NE as the ridge favored a bit of a bend around the conveyor belt of ULLs dropping down the West coast.  Another thing to note - around the 13th, the SE ridge kicked in.  This really aided [IMO] the western ULL conveyor belt.

Conversely, it is that same ridge that I think hosed us on these ULLs dropping out through the four corners.  Instead, they would sheer out and drop these quick snow storms with the remaining shortwaves.

It is a delicate balance.  Without the SE ridging, we see a more zonal pattern.  While it might release the storrms cleaner/faster, it also prevents them from a hint of blocking and the ability to deepen further West.  This reminds me of the evil capping during late Spring/early Summer.  You want some cap to build surface CAPE, but not too much that would restrict thunderstorm growth.

Variability in large scale features certainly have the impact of changing quite a bit.

Looking at the 12z, if you look at 96 hrs and compare to 12/9

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081209.html

The ridges are a bit different on the West Coast.  That is due to the GFS amping up the SW stream and trying to cutoff this ULL off the coast of Cali - thus distorting the ridge.  But look at the flow above the ridge in both frames - nearly the same.

I am not sold on this thing cutting off.  Granted, the jet is more active this time through, but thinking it ultimately come onto land and phase in or just sheer out.

I think the ridge wins out and pushes it further east.  This would change the orientation of the ridge and a bit of the flow to its West.

Last thought on this...looking at 102hr, it seems the GFS wants to bring our Southern/SE ridge early.  Probably in response to the cutoff ULL.  This will be very interesting to watch.  

Notes - the "just east of us storm" did largely fizzle out - sorta.  It was the same setup, but died in amplitude.  I will try to explain if you want to follow:

First and foremost, the ridging in the West was outragous this time through.  Many areas in the West were matching or topping daily max surface pressure records.

As you can imagine, this is going to be a player.  Go back in the prior cycle - you had a ULL off the coast of Cali being pushed inland by a ULH just behind it.  At the same time, we had wave entering the CONUS in NE Washington.  In the flow, the two began to phase and just started coming together on Nov 29th in the Central Plains.  By the 30th, it had deepened into a strong ULL in NE MO.  KC caught just a bit over a trace of precip from this event on the backside.

So, lets at this time.  Its pretty simple..the ridge got in place a few days early, and was much stronger this time.  Look at Jan 16th -

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20090116.html

With the strong ridge in place, the wave needs to ride over the top, and we see it in this map NW of Montana instead of further west before.  Notice the low pressure riding under the ridge.  The same wave and ULL were in place, but because of the ridge strength, the ULL retrograded unter the strong ULH flow and missed the phasing.

Also, with the strength of the ridge, phasing wasn't going to happen anyway.  Consequently, the wave continued on in the flow, the ridge deepened further pushing the flow more meridial yet, sending the wave to our NE forming the ULL in Michigan.

The wave was there, the ridge was stronger and further east and hosed up the phasing.  It dropped the ULL more east than expected.  It was there..but speaking for myself only, I was blown away by the ridge this time.  I didn't anticipate that.

The wave was there and it formed over Michigan.  Not sure what "just east of us" means, but unless it is Michigan, I am not sure that would really be a solid validation.  The LRC side of me is screaming that it fit the pattern, but while still not completely bonkers yet [could be argued after reading my blog entry on lrcweather.com today - LOL}, the everstrong critic in me is stuggling with it from a pure forecast accuracy perspective.

Short of that, the rest of the forecast has been pretty solid.  We will see what happens upcoming.  

As far as your qualifying the early part of the forecast-  I am not sure anyone in their right mind right now would be comfortable projecting more than 3 days out nevermind 5-15 days.  Yeah - there is model guidence.  And we have seen in the last two weeks how well it is doing.  Are you kidding me?  I am seeing more flip flops than a teenage beach party.

Standard/typical reasoning would agree with you, however.  Making a forecast purely off the LRC, can't really be validated to be fully LRC based until out of the model window.

Either way, the forecast is pretty solid.  Knowing that model guidence is tentative and that we use the LRC, anyway you factor it...it was pretty close.  

But alas..more to come.  Oh..and as far as "twist"...ha.  I would probably prefer seasonal variability as the defintion...that is how I see it.  Twist does sound more interesting however.

LOL

I heard Brett this morning  debating whether it would be better to have another warm up or more snow. At this point, I've pretty much given up on any more good snows this winter so let's have more warm ups!

Gary, I would say you have your neck on the line both in the short and mid term for the next couple of weeks, but your overall forecast of 20-25 inches is in SERIOUS Jepordy if the "Twist" doesn't come thru and break  this pattern of 1-2 inch snows. I am still banking on lesser amounts in the 11-15 inch range near the Stadiums for the year but I surely wouldn't mind getting a nice 8-10 incher in 2 weeks!

As far as Notes grading.....I would have to be more on his side of the grade than yours just because of the lack of a storm anywhere but the temp swings and all were spot on. It is really amazing that someone thought enough of patterns (cycles) to try to prove they existed, I still think if you went back to OCT. 92 and followed that thru the floods with the charts I think you could see a lot of rain coming our way that year. Much like I am thinking that it will be a VERY dry Summer here in our part of the world.  Does this pattern lend itself to an "Omega Block" for the Summer?

Kelly

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Kelly,

We will be analyzing all of these things.  Great thoughts from you today as well. And, yes my winter forecast of 20-25 inches will need one good storm in there or it will fall short.  We have until April, so let's see what happens.

Gary

Gary,

You know how I feel about this winter.  So that answers the first part of the question.  And to the second part...I honestly can say even though I am a huge winter person, I am done hoping, so I would rather move onto Spring.  This winter is too frustrating and its stressing me out...so lets just move onto Spring.

oh, please, let's have more snow.  If winter ended now, it would be an unbearably long boring summer.  This is the best time of year.....usually!!  Kathleen

Between today and yesterday there have been some serious "novel" size postings.......and from some people who usually do not post large ones. I enjoyed reading them!! Great thoughts from everyone. I wish I could contribute like that but I can not, :o).  Since I am pretty sure we wil not get a decent snow at all this Winter I wish for Spring now. If we were in the slot for a good snowy winter then I would say continue on but since we have been brown most all of the season I want it to go away now. Ughhh, so sad.....another boring winter for us. Maybe next year will be our year for snow. Enjoy the beautiful day.....great day for cleaning the vehicles and washing them. That is my plan anyways.
Monica
Pleasanton

I am going to continue to hope for snow!  I want 1-2 big storms and I will be satisfied til next year.  although I may have to move north to get them this year!  I just think it is a waste to have such cold temps and nothing to go with them!
Shelly

Monica,

Don't say you can't contribute like us...you can.  You just have to try.

And you and I are on the same page when it comes to Gary's blogger question.  The problem is that it seems that every year we say "maybe next year."  But I guess thats all the hope we have...just keep wishing.  Or maybe when I get out of college, I will be able to move somewhere where it snows all winter long. =)

It is hard not to be ready for Spring on a beautiful day like this.  BUT... I still love my snow and am wishing for at least one big one before it's all said and done!  

The latest Drought Monitor shows increasing drought or abnormal dryness across Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Wyoming:
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/drmon.gif

The dryness around KC is not characterized as "abnormally dry" yet and with the active part of this year's LRC arriving within 2 weeks maybe the KC area will catch up on precip.  However, the last time through the "active" part of the cycle the dry areas SW of KC received little or no precipitation.  If that happens again the drought will intensify.  My thoughts are that unless the Southern Plains are the beneficiary of numerous SE-moving MCSs this spring that help to green and moisten things up, there is a good chance of a very hot and dry summer across that area.  The strong ULLs that swing out of the SW US and generate the big severe weather outbreaks and big rains in spring seem to be mostly absent from this year's LRC.  So far ULLs have generally sheared out and weakened dramatically as they have ejected out of the SW.

Its winter, so lets continue with the cold and hope for some snow.   It will be spring, then summer fast enough and we will be complaining its too hot!

We can wish and hope all we want, but mother nature has the final say.... and the LRC

Joe

Who wants some things to look at?  I will leave off the extended commentary and just post data.

This quote came from a nationally known forecaster in this year's Winter Forecast -

"The Great Plains was blasted by snow last year and many communities ran very low on salt to keep roads clear of ice. Despite the elevated cost of salt this winter season, these areas will receive a break in the form of less snow than last year."

Here is what happened -
"These continuous snowfall events during December broke historical monthly records in many locations across the Upper Midwest. La Crosse, Wisconsin had their snowiest December on record as 32.7 inches fell. This also ranked as their fourth snowiest month on record. A December record of 45.6 inches of snow fell in Green Bay, Wisconsin, topping their previous record of 36.4 inches which was set in 1887. Madison, Wisconsin also experienced their snowiest December on record with 40.4 inches. Several locations in North Dakota received record amounts of snow in December, some of which were all-time monthly records. In Bismarck, the National Weather Service office recorded an all-time monthly snowfall record of 33.3 inches. Grand Forks received a record 30.1 inches of snow for the month, which was also their second snowiest month on record. Fargo also recorded an all-time record snowfall amount in any month with 33.5 inches. Additional events in the Upper Midwest brought the December snowfall totals to over 60 inches in some areas."

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/snow0809.html

Here is what was forecasted by the CPC -

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/arx/winter200809outlook/outlooktemp(1).jpg

Here is what the NCDC notes about December -

"December temperatures were much below average across the Upper Midwest and cooler than average across much of the West, Northwest and Midwest. Warmer-than- average temperatures were experienced in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States.  The East North Central region (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) had its 10th coolest December on record. Respectively, Minnesota and North Dakota had their seventh and eighth coolest December. "

Wow.  Conversely, here is this.

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/11/24/3599925.aspx

Upper Midwest and East North Central region colder temps - Bullseye!

Missouri Valley, Tennessee and Ohio Valley into the NE above average precipiation-Bullseye!

"The United States measured above-average precipitation in December across the Northeast, Great Lakes, Mississippi Valley, and much of the northern Great Plains and interior West.  

However, December was drier than average across the southern Plains. "  Miss

The LRC looks like it is doing just fine....

As to the question Gary posed, I am ready for spring.  I don't like the cold and dark of winter.  At least the cold and dark aren't quite as bad in Texas.  I feel this winter has been interesting temperature-wise, but otherwise boring.

I like Jacob's forecast!  I think I'm gonna go with it!  lol  Frankly, although usually I really like winter, this has been a bad one - can't necessarily blame it on the winter, just the past few months we've had some major problems and sadness.  So ... I AM ready to move on into the next "season" -- and whatever it brings!  

Laura

60 degrees here in Lee's Summit!  Feels great!

Yukon High Pressure is doing its thing!  Old Crow, Yukon current temp. is -47F (normal -9F)  http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?yk-11&unit=i.  

Very interesting note:  Whitehorse, Yukon had several days of record high temperatures earlier this week, including consecutive days with highs above +50 F (normal high temp is +9F).  That may be a record as well for Whitehorse, but I didn't look up.  Tonight's forecasted low for Whitehorse is -22 F, a 78 degree temp. swing from a high of +55 a couple of days ago.  Just to point out we're not alone on this wild temperature swing pattern.

Gary,

It has been a strange winter so far. As a warm weather person, I'm counting the days to spring, t-storms, the re-birth of trees, grass and flowers and longer days of sunlight vs the cold, ugly, dreary days of winter.

Jeff

Those folks in Old Crow must have plenty of Old Crow or an equivalent on hand to survive those heinous winters!

Im definitel going to keep my hopes up for atleast one good snow. I know its been cold and dry, but its winter and im going to keep my hopes up until winter is officially over.

David from LS

Gary,

Personally I HATE cold weather. Anything below 80 degrees is cold as far as I'm concerned! But, today is gorgeous. I was able to take off a few layers of clothes and still be comfortable.

If it has to be cold then it should at least snow. I'm looking forward to one good snowfall and then bring on spring! I love sitting outside late in the evening in the spring/summer. It is so relaxing.

I would love love love love a major snow storm!  Meaning 15" or more!  Even better would be to break that up into two snowstorms, with no melting in between!
As far as how I feel about this winter:  The cold outbreaks are exhilerating and I love 'em, but the lack of winter precip is like confronting my worst fear!  I've managed well though.  Here in Platte City, we've about 6" so far.  Last year we had 30".  Ahh, the good ol' days!  
Truly, an ideal winter is in Flagstaff, AZ.  One of the 10 snowiest in the U.S., as well as the top 10 with the most days below freezing!  #7 and #8 or something; can't remember.  Also no brutal cold, or stupid warmth...usually.  

Im keeping my hopes up for 1 big snowstorm.  

Bring on Spring, This drab, dreary weather with little teases of Spring drives me nuts

Well, since I can't move somewhere warm, I'd love for it to be highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for the next couple of months!  I think the snow is beautiful, but I'd still rather be warm!

Winter is already short enough. Dec. Jan. and Feb. are really the only months we can get it to snow around here. You warm weather lovers have 9 months to enjoy. Us snow lovers only get 3 months its not fair.

I need at least one snow day to stay at home and snuggle with my kids.  We haven't had one yet!  Some other schools have, but not ours yet.

Bring it on!

Then I'll be ready for spring.

No way we have had some Spring-like days already so people that love warm can wait because Winter isn't over yet! We need at lease one big snow here in the metro area!

Gary,
Me personally, I want just one good snow...like at least 6in+...and I am holding out hope.  I want my 5 year old to be able to play in it.  This is only his second winter with snow. ( we were in the south for 6 years )

Holdin out hope in Parkville!
Becky

Winter in my favorite time of the year so it can't be over.  These small warmups are a nice break in between the cold, but KC needs a big snowfall this season.  

Good beautiful mid winter day here in Kansas City, Kansas.

I wanted to make further comment to my blog post this morning regarding the LRC. When this blog first started up and the “theory” as it was known was discussed, I had a very hard time grasping the concept that it is not what occurs at the surface, but rather the upper levels of the atmosphere. Now several years have passed and of course I know that the jet stream changes, but I was always in the beginning under the impression that the “theory” as it was known at that time just reflected what happened at the surface. But looking back at several maps, sometimes it is easy as pie to see what is going on the weather, and some maps of course look like near carbon copies of each other, and then of course…sometimes that doesn’t work out.

I will say that the KSHB Winter Forecast for the most part has been spot on. I can’t say it has been 100% obviously because we are still waiting to see what occurs in terms of the snowfall prediction. Now as of today that has me a bit worried, but it can and sometimes does snow in Kansas City as late as mid April, and like I said this morning in my earlier statement above, sometimes those mid fall and early spring snow storms can be convective in nature and come dump a lot of snow in a short amount of time, but at the same time this type of event rarely produces widespread significant snowfall amounts across such a large region like Kansas City is.

Now as for the forecast prediction from Jacob..Hat’s off to you buddy! I think more of the bloggers should be willing to make such bold forecasting efforts as yourself before the criticize someone else’s forecast. I think I might work on putting one together myself this evening that will take me into next 2 months or so. Now of course Jacob..here is the part of the kettle calling the pot black! 1-2 Severe Weather Outbreaks…That to me would be a given in any spring situation here in the Kansas City area. Remember we are dealing with a large scale region, and while Severe Thunderstorms can be rather to significant to one area, they are usually on a much smaller scale in terms of impact. What I mean is you rarely see a Severe Thunderstorm impact a entire metro area at one time, of course you may have a storm affect lets say Lenexa, Overland Park, and Shawnee, but do we consider this a Severe Weather Outbreak for the Kansas City area? In my opinion I would not. Now take a large scale bow echo that produces several severe weather reports across the entire area, that to me would be qualified as a Severe Weather Outbreak

I am just like anyone else on this weather blog, if I did not get affected by it “storm” then it doesn’t count. What I mean is lets say KCI gets a snowstorm next week and they receive a whopping 14 inches, but just a mere 13 miles away Prairie Village only gets a dusting of snowfall. Now of course that would be rather extreme but something like that did occur in November 2006 when the south side of town received almost 10 inches, while areas just 10-15 miles further north got nothing. I am that way when it comes to Severe Thunderstorms, if I didn’t get to see anything “exciting”, then of course I consider it a huge bust. But in reality, it might not have been a huge bust, just my local area was not affected. I hope that makes sense!!

Ok another really long blog entry for me, my BillinLawrence is rubbing off on me, and making me think longer about what I want to say on here. Currently sitting at 65 here in KCK with a WSW wind blowing at 4 MPH. Looking forward to that cold front tomorrow morning and seeing another drop in temperatures again, but really hoping for some snowfall this weekend. Oh and Gary, since it is not snowing the way I want it to this year, can we skip the rest of winter, and fast forward straight to next winter? Maybe I will get my wishful snowfall?


Bryan

So Gary, here's a question.  As it looks like the LRC is certainly for real (and I've been with you for years on it's validity), do you have any thoughts as to what actually causes the pattern to cycle?  Could it seem to have anything to do with wide-scale planetary factors such as the actual orbit of earth around the sun each year?

Oh yes, and I vote for one good snow blitz before winter's end.  We need at least one or two days with an excuse for not going to work, even though I know your work only increases with a big storm!

SNOW! SNOW! SNOW!

Sound of Heels clicking three time.  Oh no we are still in Kansas TOTO!

Well I will admit... the 4 inch snow that we had in December has helped me "mentally" combined with the other small snow and ice events, So I am still somewhat excited for Feb. the strong fronts are impressive in themselves, so Spring can hold off. As for predictions for spring... I don't want to jump to conclusions yet, yes winter has been sort of dry BUT it is a dry season, and we have had enough precip. here to keep us from being way below avg. In the spring there will be more moisture around for the pattern to work with, there won't be the arctic air to just clean out the atmosphere, and the storm tracks will move further north, REMEMBER OCTOBER that was part of the pattern to, and remember the NEW ORLEANS snow ULL was right over K.C. in October, to add to that even the north west flow could produce some stuff especially later in the spring(MCS) activity. Don't get me wrong it will be drier than last year, and the areas to our west and south west willl likely be very dry and have a hot and dry summer and spring. but for us I think will will be able to get hotter than last summer( although that won't be hard to do) but with the dominant NW flow I expect there to still be "refreshing" canadian highs to slide south east out of central Canada into the upper midwest and down to our east these could bring numerous "back door cold fronts" and "Great Lakes flow" to take the edge of of the surges of heat we will likely get from the ridge to our west, and the NW flow could produce MCS activity that could "ride" the temp contrasts from the Hot west and the "Cool" east down through our region, much like the clippers do, through out the summer keeping us from getting too dry. Well that is my two cents for today;)

This winter has been kinda exciting and boring at the same time, but No way am I ready for Spring!!!

I need some SNOW! My in-laws in Mississippi have had more snow than we have had this year.

Spring forecast - with all of the wild temperature swings we have had this year, tapping into the moisture usually available in the spring, this spring will be wet, windy and stormy during the active pattern and exceptionally windy with continued wild temperature swings through the first week of June. As my track season is during the next active pattern, I fully expect it to be a washout!

Pat

Your question about Winter was hard to answer on this beautiful "Spring" day in January.  We vote for one more major snowstorm with a good amount of snow, then we are ready for Spring to set in!

Mike and Jenn in Lee's Summit!

LRC and winter has been highly disappointing, one big snow is not worth the salt on the road, the grime, and cold which equates into high gas bills. Let's move on to Spring and write this one off as another let down.

An update on the wild temp swings in Mineral Wells, Texas.  This morning's low turned out to be 25.  The current temp at 2:53 p.m. is 85!  The dewpoint is 16, giving a current relative humidity of 8%.  Shocking.

If the temp never falls below 60 again it will be to soon!  Bring on SPRING

I usually love the winter season around here, but this season has been yet another disappointment. Last year we had 10 inches of snow and for this winter so far 4.3. I normally would say bring on the snowstorm, but this year I'd say bring on spring!!

  I'm unbiased on weather I want spring to start know or have snow.  I know I'd be very dissapointed if we didn't get any snow but I love the warm temeratures. I guess though scince warm makes me feel so  happy I'm depressed I would want some snow before its march when we can have everything!

Jacob - some thoughts on your entry above.  

"Our snowfall around the Kansas City area has been extremely low"

December - the average snowfall at KMCI is 4.5 inches.  This December it ended at 6.2 inches.
January - the average snowfall at KMCI is 5.3 inches.  We currently have .5 inches at KMCI.

I wouldn't say it is extremely low.  I would say that December was above average and we are heading into the active cycle.  It doesn't take much to get 1-3 inch storms when the pattern is active.

Also, as far a "dryness", no doubt areas to our west from maybe Topeka west has been dry.  For this area over the last 30 days,  it has been average or above average for the metro and roughly 30-40 miles surrounding the metro.

We are short on precip for Jan.  The next week maybe contributes a bit, but will need a decent storm to hit the average for Jan.  Fortunately, December's totals provide a bit of a surplus.

As far as temps, we are a hair over average for Jan, and a bit under for December.  Combined, we are still below average to date.  I do agree though, in this part of the pattern, we should be about normal.  We will have huge temp swings, but for every 0 degree day - there seems to have had a 60 degree a day or two before it.

As we get into the active flow, longer periods of cold are favored.  If you look at Dec 15-22nd, these 8 days resulted in a average -15+ degrees below the norm.  That is a HUGE anamoly.  

"And if we are getting these major temperature swings now and our temps are sometimes getting into the 50's to near 70 degrees at times, then I can only imagine what our temperature swings will be like when we get into the Summer months.  Something tells me that we will have no problem getting to 100 degrees or higher this Summer. "

Let me touch on this.  This thinking seems intuitive, but the warmups we are getting right now are seasonally geared to strong pre-frontal WAA ahead of powerful surface lows.  Applied to Summer, this would have weaker WAA as surface lows will be weaker and the only additional warming from a frontal passage may be a bit of compressional warming ahead of the front.

Neither of these mechnisms are super strong in the Summer to bulge temps much over 100 for any extended period.  What you need in Summer for a prolonged heatwave is a strong ridge over head.

Looking at the pattern this year and the subsequent long term long waves, sustained heat is going to be tough.  The Western ridge that we have seen may draw a bit closer, but should have us in a NW flow as we have seen so far several times.  A NW flow is not condusive to any prolonged heat.  Based on the powerful Great Lakes trough long term longwave, any building ridge overhead would be short lived as it wouldn't want to be here.

Now, I might agree with you on dryness.  Watching TX/OK and Southern/Western KS has me a bit nervous.  Dry can breed more dry.  I think the only thing in this pattern that has me curious is the distinct different phases of the SW flow and the NW flow.  The SW flow is long enough in the pattern, and has shown storm tracks that rainfall could come in that part.  The NW flow is not going to be helpful for that area.

I think we will largely be normal on precip and should continue at normal or below normal for temperatures for Spring.  As far as Severe Weather potential...I am thinking it will be active.

We are having huge temp swings and strong surface lows, with very good cold air behind it.  This type of boundary can be certainly explosive.  Add in some seasonal Gulf moisture, and things will be hoppin.  But where?

The long term long wave in W. KS/OK/TX has been bringing the majority of surface lows right over head or just a hair north - [thus putting us in the wrong part of the storm for the majority of snow].  Applied to Spring, that would put us in the warm sectors maybe just SE of the triplepoints.

This setup would apply to the active period.  I think this could yield not just typical MCS or normal linear mode along a cold front, but perhaps a bit more discrete as well based on how I envision the LLJ trength and location to be in proximity to a surface low/ULL in this set up.

For the NW flow, these will be a bit tamer - but all it would need is to catch a plume of Gulf air left behind some moisture pooling to ignite.  This is typical.  Also, Nick nailed it...shortwaves in the NW flow tend to create MCS type events which can be decent rain makers.

This is off just gut feel and what I have worked on this year.  I will have to further research for a more solid forecast, but this is how I see it right now.

I would love a tunnel making, fort building, shut down the city kind of snowstorm but I would be happy  w/ 7 or 8 inches.  If it's going to be cold it just as well snow!!!

GARY.....I regretfully say winter as far as snow fall is a bust and over for this season a couple 1 or two inchers but no 4-12 big even....things are phasing just east of here,

Hello Gary, lets go right to Spring- I do not even want to go through the "active period" in February... I am ready for the 70s and 80s that I am anticipating in March with this years LRC...

I've given up on the snowstorm and just want winter to be over!

Looks like I should move back to Colorado to enjoy a real winter wonderland.  Then I can watch Jack Harry get all upset when the Chiefs get beat by the Broncos.

Hey Gary,

Great question. Time for spring!  I lived in Madison, WI for over 20 years and winters there, well you've seen the data. Though there was record snow last year, Madison averages somewhere in the 50-60 inch range per season. I moved here to KC seeking a "latitude adjustment" and was not disappointed starting in 2002.  It simply doesn't snow here like it does in Wisconsin.  I had some flashbacks after last year, but this year is everything I've come to expect from a Kansas City winter (I admit, the snow has been anemic even for here, and we usually get 1 or 2 big snowfalls per season-see February twist).  I bask in the glory of seeing the ground in January!  In Madison, that is unfathomable!  Jeremy is from MN, went to school in Madison and worked in the UP of MI, so it was an easy sell explaining how great winter is down here to him! LOL, I speak for him! I also told Jeremy that I also have a theory, which is there is always 1 day in January that one can enjoy a day outside in KC (that's my code for a warm day ~60F or more).  I love this weather!  Too bad it comes crashing down tomorrow, LOL!    

             

A big snow would bring in about $1500 from my snow removal business. The more snow the better. Spring can wait.

I think this winter has sucked...no snowdays, which means no days off for me...I like the seasonal spring days, but I want a few HUGE winter storms...

Brian in Lee's Summit

Scott I totally agree with you about the active Spring. I was going to contradict Jacob on the calm spring if I hadn't read your entry. ever since the mid part of December I've been predicting an active spring(I know its what actually happens that counts not predictions) with so many strong lows and fronts, and have you all noticed how much wind we've had. this is just classic for an active spring in regards to thunderstorms. excites the heck out of me.

Let winter end and bring on spring!

Kristi

Just as amazing as the upcoming temp drop was the rise in temps today.    At 7am it was 24 in OP and it shot up to 64 in just 7 hours.     What a wild ride.  

I volunteer with the dogs at Wayside Waifs & I'm looking forward to the nicer weather so it's easier to get the dogs out & work with them without them slipping all over wet floors from the snow & slush that gets tracked in.  I've had enough snow for the winter.  We had a nice white Christmas and that's all I need.  

Sorry Gary.  I know you want the snow.  

I'm not crazy about more snow, but we could use some rain.  I don't want a significant warm up yet or we will have trees and plants budding too early with too much of a risk of a bad freeze later.

I talk everyday with co-workers near Chicago and Detroit, and do not want to trade our weather for their weather this winter.

Anybody that likes cold weather doesn't have to work in it.  Give me 100 above before 0 anytime.  At least equipment and muscles work when it's warm and one can drive without sliding.  I was ready for spring in November.

Let's get some rain or snow. Prefer snow but rain is good too.

We have GOT to be due for something like this:

Mar 24, 1912
Residents of Kansas City began to dig out from a storm that
produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours.  A total of 40 inches of
snow fell during the month of March that year, and the total for
the winter season of 67 inches was also a record.  Olathe Kansas
received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a
single storm record for the state of Kansas.





This was taken from Dodge City NOAA.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/wxtrivia/wxtrvMar.php

If you want snow, go north. I'm originally from Iowa, where there is snow on the ground usually from November through March. Right now, Des Moines has about 6+ inches and more is expected in the next few days, then ice next week. When you have to shovel it day after day, Kansas is a great place to live especially with the little snow/ice that comes this way.  Some of us like our snow less  towns....
....bring on the 60+ degree weather

As soon as February is over you can bring spring in all you want I just want to see if this cycle will produce a major winter storm.  Then let's bring the warm air and thunderstorms in.

I keep hoping for one more big (4 inches or more) snowstorm, then we can bring on spring.  I just hope if we get a major event that it comes down as snow and not ice. I always worry when it gets later in the season that the sleet and ice come easier than the snow alot of us are hoping for.  Thanks, Gary, for asking our opinions!!!  Have a great night!!!

I hope we do get an active spring to make up for this dud of a winter.

"just hoping and wishing for at least one big snowstorm"
YOU HAVE NO IDEA

Snow is nice in Olahte here but not this much!

Mar 24, 1912
Residents of Kansas City began to dig out from a storm that
produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours.  A total of 40 inches of
snow fell during the month of March that year, and the total for
the winter season of 67 inches was also a record.  Olathe Kansas
received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a
single storm record for the state of Kansas.
.end

I am SO ready for spring--but I know we still have a lot of winter ahead of us...

If you really want to get snowstorms every year that gets a lot of snow, buy a house in every county of America!

I'm ready for it to be March now. plus my birthday is in March, though I'll be one year closer to 30...weird.

Gary,

I am not a fan in any way of winter.  I don't like the cold, the snow or ice.  I prefer summer, hot and dry.  In winter its too cold to work on all the ag equipment.  In spring its to wet to get in the fieds.  Summer, contrary to popular belief is perfect.  Get the hardest work done early before 10AM, work in an open air barn until 4 or 5PM.  Then go back into the field aft 5 and work until 9 or 9:30PM.  

Also, its a little late in the day.  Today it was bright and sunny.  A good sign for the year.  But I have something for those who like weather lore.  Today is St. Vincent's Day;

Remember on St. Vincent’s Day,
If that the Sun his beams display,
Be sure to mark the transient beam—
Which through the casement sheds a gleam;
For ’tis a token bright and clear
Of prosperous weather all the year.

St. Vincent’s Day is heralded for its weather lore. A sunny day signifies “more wine than water” and means that the sap might begin to rise. Frost on that day presages a delayed crop. May today bring sunbeams bright and clear, if the prosperity only follows!

Its the year of the Ox!

I want SNOW

More winter

Where is the snow we've all been waiting for!!  Is there a snow dance anyone can do so Gary's winter forecast prediction can come true???

Laura in Raytown

Well, since everyone on the blog seems to want to write today, id like to throw in a few things regarding whats on my mind. First, I definitely agree with becky about the debate part... its really why i love this blog, couldnt really learn anything if there werent different ideas floating around.

Great forecast Jacob! i really enjoyed it... but i must say i hope its wrong... i want more than just 1 severe weather outbreak this spring! Of course hoping for some tornadoes nearby that I will be able to chase (and hoping that it wont cause destruction) but lord no i am definitely not ready for winter to end! Blue Valley hasn't canceled schools yet! I should hope that its not over! Gary promised me snow days! lol. I would love to see 37 inches in one day here in Olathe, that should send me to skool through mid june!!

In relation to a prediction (because i probably can't give one as thorough as Jacob) I would like to think that this "boring" part of the cycle should repeat itself giving us a huge HUGE break in precip, but not the temperature swings. I do believe that it should be a hot winter, but all these temperature dips (and of course im not a meterologist) there could be some interesting and strong cold fronts coming through in the spring time, and with that building moisture, we could possibly see a series of severe weather outbreaks... then bitter cold air following it. I think that this summer and spring could be characterized as some bizzare episodes of extremes in both precip and temperature.

This for sure has been one crazy winter so far! but like Gary said, its not over! March (hoping) could give us a surprise dumping :D that would be fun. Of course, severe weather expecially in years past tends to also start in the season. I just really hope that more reasearch can be done by more people on the LRC, there is something that is there that links up and could prove to show something. I also find it fascinating that Global Warming wasnt a huge discussion here... i think its interesting.

Gary, i think were all waiting on what you think spring and summer will hold! lol thanks for everything that you do for us bloggers!

-------------

Great job. Everyone is coming in big today!  I love it. Thank you all for the participation.

Gary

21 days and counting until pitchers and catchers report to "SPRING" training!

00Z GFS actually looks worse than last night.....Classic!  I think anyone would agree with me on this...  The worst possible winter is that which has plenty of really cold days, and yet no significant snowfall to speak of...  Welcome to Kansas City!!  Aint it great!!

Argh...

Matt

------------

Matt,

The 00z  messed up early and it never quite recovered.

Gary

Hey Gary (or anyone else from the weather team) -- I know we have our own weather to talk about, but...my mom is coming down from Lincoln, NE tomorrow night to visit and go with us to our 3D ultrasound Saturday morning.  It definitely looks like, unless she wants to drive in snow, she'll need to head back home Saturday night, but when do you think it will really start snowing up in Lincoln?

She'd like to stay as long as she can.

And up near Lincoln/Nebraska City, does it look like it's probably going to start snowing Saturday and all day on Sunday with little break?

I would really, really appreciate it if you could just give me your thoughts based on what you see (when watching your map, it kind of cuts off where I can't see Lincoln) : )  I told my mom I'd see what the Action Weather Team thinks before helping her make any decisions : )

Gary,

Thanks for the heads up on the 00Z GFS....  Will be standing by for tomorrow...  Have a good evening..

Matt..

Found out that tomorrow is my dads last day at Embarq, he has gotten the pink slip,but he will be paid for eight months.

Sorry to hear about that Andrew.   I am glad he has 8 months of pay.   Its a rough market to look for a job at this point.   I wish him and your family the best of luck.