NBC Action Communities

Thank you for the update on the snow potential for KC, Jeremy.  What are your thoughts for the snow potential near the NE/IA border?

******************

Could be around 3"...give or take a half inch.

Jeremy

Ya know, hope this doesn't sound petty.  But when weather forecasters say near 36 highway I know you mean in northern Missouri.  But countless people out here in eastern and central Kansas think you are referring to 36 highway up near Hiawatha.  Sure wish you guys could clarify which part of 36 highway you are discussing.  It really messes my wife up.

So around KCI is maybe a half inch?  I wanted to make sure I read correctly.
thanks
becky

I would love to see a hick-up Jeremy and we get the 3"!!!!!!!!!!!!  Please, please, pretty please!  I know that is wishful thinking but I can still say it, right?

Some day we will get a good snow fall!!!!!!
Jeff

*****************

Let's keep an eye on that Monday-Tuesday timeframe!

Jeremy

According to your graphic Jeremy I wish I lived on 36 Highway around Chillicothe, MISSOURI!  Seems they are having more fun with snow that anyone else around here!
You've got my attention for Monday/Tuesday.
Thanks for the good thoughts Jeremy.

*****************

Monday and Tuesday have much more potential than tonight or Sunday. 

Jeremy

can anyone tell me how to get to this blog through a cell phone?  Is there a way?  I tried something on the home page and it wouldnt connect to the web page.
thanks
becky

davidmcg,
Hwy 36 goes thru Hiawatha eastward into northern MO, so when he says 36 it's referencing the same hwy.

in st joseph at 2.30 am light snow around 3am sleet pellets light snow streets white but blowing around more or less little white pellets cover everything.

very light snow here too, starting to cover the ground..

****************

Did it stay under a half inch?

Jeremy

16° here in KCK with light snow falling this morning. No surprise to see the snow to the north last night, and then looks like a major winter storm will take shape for areas just to the south of Kansas City near springfield. Looks like KC may have to wait again for a good winter storm.

Bryan

Hey Jeremy, up here in Albany, we have picked up about two and half to three inches with light snow continuing.  Didn't even know it was coming.

Jdeweese

******************

That is exactly what I showed on the graphic last night at 5 & 10 pm for your area!  Enjoy the snow.

Jeremy

Regular blizzard here in Kingsville!  JUST KIDDING!  Nothing yet, and probably won't since we're farther south and east.  But I did hear the wind blowing a while ago.

Laura

Jeremy,

Are you expecting anything significant weather wise here in Kansas City on Monday-Tuesday? Now of course anything over 6 would be significant for Kansas City this year, but how aout most of the metro at least getting 3 inches?

Bryan

******************

Bryan,

The timeframe you speak of could give us our biggest snow this month in Kansas City...so more than a half inch:)  I will try to talk totals later today, but not until after the 18Z data.  It certainly has potential, but will it be 1-2", 2-4", etc.  Lots of questions.

Jeremy 

By the way, was it just me or did the models overnight seem to shift that storm system a little further north? Maybe it will continue to shift the threat of wintry weather further into the Kansas City area.

Bryan

Jeremy, whatever comes, it will be strictly snow - no ice, right?  Or did I miss something somewhere?  Thanks.

Laura

(Sorry I joked earlier - I was reading about all that snow and something came over me!)

It never snowed :(

Just a dusting here north of Lawson.

near 169 & Englewood I would call this a spotty dusting of flurries, with some granular pellets mixed in. If you were looking at my driveway you would think I had spread ice melt on it the way the pellets look.

***************

That's about what we have on the Plaza too.  Thanks for the update!

Jeremy

Just west of Smithville, we have about 1/2 inch of new snow.  Roads and driveways are white.  Still a few stray snowflakes coming down.

********************

Just added the total to my snow graphic.

Jeremy

 
wxwmn  if thats the case that when they refer to hwy 36 being as both sides of the line then there is real problems.  I can count numerous times this winter alone when the weather as they said would be occurring along HWy 36 was totally opposite on either side of the state line.

Currently in La Cygne we have some light snow mixed with a little bit of grapel.

*********************

Great update!  Looks like everything is reaching the ground now.

Jeremy

We got a 0.00" of snow in Olathe!

****************

Thanks

Jeremy

Woke up to some snow pellets on the driveway thats about it in leavenworth.  Looking forward to more than a 1/2 inch of snow maybe on mon night into tuesday :)

****************

Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

1/2 inch of snow here in Holt.

Streets and driveway are covered.

Hope mon/tues bring enough to get out and plow !!!!!!

******************

Keep your fingers crossed;)

Jeremy

Fingers crossed,but not holding my breath.

It's almost gotta happen sometime soon  :)

So how do you think tomorrow's morning rush and evening rush will look?  Another station said they could both be problematic. **************** I really don't see the morning rush being a problem at this point. There's a chance the snow could start in the afternoon. I'll address the timeline and forecast trends/concerns/thoughts this afternoon. Jeremy

Jeremy:
Good chilly typical Kansas City January day to you sir!! Currently sitting at around 18 here this morning in SW Lawrence-about every 30 minutes one will see a random snow flake fall to the ground and we had one brief flurry come through last night. Friday night however was pretty cool here as we had about 30 minutes of decent snow and wind-I’ll take whatever snow Mother Nature wants to give me LOL!!

It has been a few days-crazy job is getting in the way of my hobby LOL!! Uriah Heep’s Easy Living is for sure ringing in my ears!!!! Kind of like Stewie in Family Guy-Easy Living-gotta get me some of that!!

A few random observations/thoughts this morning that with the usual caveat I hope they make some sense as they are coming from a hobbyist on a good day-but here it goes.

1. I think tomorrow into Tuesday is going to be interesting to follow. The 0z and 6Z GFS has I think (big two words there-I think!!) changed the qpf output a fair amount since yesterday’s runs-I was kind of wondering about it yesterday as the GFS showed a 850 vort tracking through central Missouri but it was showing the bulk of the qpf to the south of that track-that didn’t make much sense to my little hobbyist mind. I was thinking that there had to be at least one decent swath of qpf to the north of that track-the 0z and 6z today are showing that a bit better-at least I think this is what I am seeing.

2. The other interesting thing (I think I am seeing this correctly) is watching the two vorts at the 700 level track-there is a weaker one on the 0z and 6z GFS tracking close to KC that may help give us a little lift but it is kind of tracking over the top of us thus the stronger qpf in our area is north of KC on these past two runs. The second stronger 700 vort really gets cranking once it hits-yep-the dominant long wave trough to our east. It is pretty cool watching that stronger vort at 700 kind of meander along southern Kansas and Missouri and then hit around the boot heel of Missouri and really begin to gain strength.

3. As there doesn’t appear to be a lot of vorticity at the 500 level it will be interesting to track the 850 vort and the two 700 vorts and see what happens. In my very humble hobbyist opinion we are kind of on the outside looking in at this moment but it appears the chance is for sure there for us to maybe get a decent little snow Monday/Tuesday. Something for sure to watch and I think this is the set up that gave us our first real snow of the season-I think???

4. Looking ahead: Here really goes the limb LOL-I really think the models are struggling with next week-the overall idea is there but there something that is getting lost in the specifics. Scott mentioned in a response to one of my blogs the SE ridge and the role it played in intensifying the ridge out west in December-as of now, the models are really not showing that feature very well and I think this is allowing some ridging to come into the central plains mid next week and that the real trough/ridge idea we saw in December is being pushed back to around hour 324. I think it will be interesting to follow this over the next 3-5 days and see what they show for the first week of February and if that more pronounced ridge in the west and the SE ridge does not begin to show up in some of the runs. They have had this on the operational and ensembles but have kind of lost it in translation.  It would be cool to find archived model data and see what the models were showing a week or 10 days prior to early-mid December-I wonder if we were not seeing the same issues then as we are now. Or in reality, I could just be making no sense what so ever!!!! LOL

Next week is next week-it is time to hunker down and follow the next 72 hours and see if maybe we can’t squeeze something out. Will be fun to follow the next 3-4 runs of the models and see if maybe we don’t begin to get a consistent picture. Awesome times ahead!!!!

Have a great day Jeremy and fantastic work with the forecast last night-just awesome (as the ring announcer said as Mr. T walked into the ring in Rocky III) As always, thanks for reading and providing such a great place to follow and learn about the weather!!!

Bill in Lawrence
********************* Bill, The forecast for Monday-Tuesday is a challenge in my eyes. Thanks for your thoughts and analysis. I hope by this evening to put some numbers on the possible snow...and then narrow them down with more data. Enjoy your 5 snowflakes today! Jeremy

Well, at least we had a few snow flakes in Kingsville. :) Maybe in the next couple days we get a decent snow....

Winter Storm watches for South of Metro.

We will probabily get a Winter Weather Advisory for 3-4 inches of snow ****************** I would say there is a good chance Winter Wx Advisories will get posted for some/all of the area for the next round of snow. Jeremy

I just wanted to take a second to thank the weather team, again, for always keeping us updated on the weather and for being here 24/7 to answer questions and keep us updated on what's going on.

I just talked to my mom in Lincoln (who made it home last night before the snow started there :) and she was complaining again about how it's nearly impossible to get any good information up there, especially during the weekend, when they dont even have their regular newscasts.  She's already having trouble finding out when their next round is going to start, what its really going to do, etc.

I hope everyone in KC realizes just how lucky we are to have Gary, Jeremy and Brett here in KC, so we can always be informed!  Thanks a bunch guys!! : )

Now bring on spring!! : ) ****************** Thanks for the + comments, we love to share our weather knowledge and also learn from others! Jeremy

It would be nice if this were to come true!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX **************** The 12Z extracted data gives KCI 0.9" of snow Monday/Tuesday. If you want snow, hope the GFS is correct. Jeremy

Just a dusting in NE Independence this morning.

Yea I do not like the NAM at this point.

By your models whats the 12Z GFS saying?

I figured out why I got sick on Christmas! Salmoilla! (I want more peanutbutter though) :-(

Well two points one a fact one a bone of contention.  I live in the middle of STJOE on the west side of the city one half block north of US HWY 36.  From looking out the window as I have been ill we had a "skiff" of snow if I was an official reporter it would be noted as a trace.  

So you were wrong north of 36 HWY . . . Just look at a map 36 HWY runs through the middle of St Joseph [ a city when talking about the City of 50 sq miles and a population of 76,107] if you use the mailing address of St Joseph it is 90 sq miles and 94,000 people in southern Andrew and the north ten miles of Buchanan Cnty.

Are you confusing the fourlanes of US HWY 36 with the narrow two lanes of HWY 136 that runs through Tarkio, by Maryvillie, Conception Junction, Stanberry, Bethany and Princeton?

Chillicothe, Cameron and Hamilton received likely very lite amounts of snow as well and they are all located on US HWY 36!

JUST THE FACTS LOOK AT A MAP I DROVE THE COUNTIES OF NORTH WEST MO AS AN ATTORNEY FOR YEARS AND KNOW WHAT I AM WRITTING ABOUT.   ***************** Thanks for the snow total, and yes I know where highway 36 is located. The blog entry where I had St. Joe in a 1-2" band I clearly stated if everything works out. The heavier snow was east of there. And most spots near and north of highway 36 in MO did receive 1-3" of snow. So the forecast worked out fine. Hopefully if you are wanting snow, Monday/Tuesday bring you more. Jeremy

Looking at the 12z GFS with the WXCASTER 120HR GFS snowfall model, it it really putting on the snowfall. 4-8in.  Think it might be overdoing it alittle, BUT I HOPE NOT!

why are people arguing about the 36 highway thing?  Obviously, ALL roads are LONG (okay, most - for instance, roads mentioned in forecasts) -- so it isn't like everybody just north along the entire stretch of 36 would get snow -- I just sort of took it to mean it was more LIKELY that those north would get the snow.  Snow varies greatly even within any given square miles.  Just my opinion of course!  

Laura

Jeremy, I think it would be more correct/ACCURATE to say, " that as you went east and north snow fall totals increased. "  Maryville is closest to Iowa then any of the cities mentioned in your list and only received 1.5 inches; Trenton 3 in, Albany 2.5 in,Bethany 2 in, Gallatin 2.0 in ARE ALL 50-60 MILES EAST OF ST JOSEPH and 15 -20 NORTH SO IT WAS THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THINGS .....not the northern progression that made the event.  

Does anyone know when the snow is supposed to start?  Is it going to be late this evening like around midnight or is it waiting until tomorrow into tuesday?
thanks
becky

One of my brothers is watching another channel and had a cow because the channel posted the Winter Storm Watch to our south.  That watch does not go in effect until tomorrow.  I don't watch that channel's weather forecast.  I tried to explain that the watch does not take effect until tomorrow.  He thought that I should know the answer to why the channel posted the info today.  I don't know why the station posted the info a day in advance.  Thanks channel 41 for not panicking people unnecessarily.

Kristi

This per the 12Z GFS.....Fun to think about, but we'll have to wait and see I guess..

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif


Matt

I love reading this Blog and I also like checking out www.spaceweather.com. This site shows the sunspot activity is zero. Energy from the sun is down! I wonder if all this cold weather has something to do with the reduced energy output from the sun. I noticed in the news that United Arab Emirates is seeing snow for only the second time in recorded history. I'm a geologist and know the earth has gone through dramatic climate changes and there may be long term recurrent cycles of climate changes not unlike the LRC. I find all this very fascinating.

Kristi,

Like you, I know that channel 41 is the only place to go to get the forecast, but the whole point of a winter storm watch is to give people a heads up on what may be coming, so I don't think the other channel is doing anybody a disservice by giving people too much advanced warning...  Just my take I guess though..

Matt  

********************

I can only judge what I've been saying, but yesterday and this morning I was showing the watch to our south for Monday/Tuesday.  Then mentioned I thought we may be put in some sort of advisory.  That watch was issued pretty far in advance, I guess they wanted to get the word out and were very confident.

Jeremy

At least the NWS has increased our chances of snow for Monday night and Tuesday to 80%.    Its better than nothing, maybe the trend will push it north like we want.   Its about 24hrs out so the models should start getting a good handle on this by tonight.   Thanks for keeping us updated Jeremy.    

*******************

The 18Z NAM had very little precip.

Jeremy

I was just washng my dishes and I have not seen any birds in my yard all day and just one squirrel.  The squirrel just ran up the tree and did his little alert warning and I looked out and there was a bobcat in my yard.  I live near 125th and wornall and I have seen bobcats before down by La Cygne but never here.  I think it has been lurking here all day because I usually have tons of birds in my yard all day.  Keep your small animals in if you live near here.

****************

Send us a picture!

Jeremy

I did not get a picture because I did not think fast enough I have a picture of the one in La Cygne.  How do I send that?? I also have pictures of two courting turkeys from two days ago.  I have seen a lot of wild life this past week.