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i know we talk how slim our chances of snow are but for the people in southern mo they are in for a major ice storm some areas could get over one inch of ice toward the arkansas border with even two inches of sleet possible in the rolla  area so thank goodness we are talking about a little snow not an ice storm.

also thanks gary for your breakdown of this storm its great to hear your thoughts on everystorm that comes in to our area .

Wow you are up early Gary

Thanks for coming on early Gary and updating the blog.    You give 100% and dont hype.   It is depressing to see a storm come so close by as we get so few chances.  Then again, as spotter pointed out, we could be getting ice like Southern MO, and that is something nobody needs.  

Maybe we will get 1 or 2 of those features to get going and get 2 or 3"

Joe

This looks to be a major storm that will dominate the news as it spreads across the country and up the coast of the NE.    This storm will put down plenty of ice and create much havoc.     St Louis should get a nice stripe of snow... but we will be lucky to get any scraps.   How does this storm relate to the LRC 50-53 days ago?   Was this the one that blew through and laid snow in LA and Houston?

Well, you said this would be the dry period of the cycle and it is turning out to be just that in this area.

Gary:

Good chilly with a few flurries falling morning to you sir!!! Currently at 16 degrees and if you look hard enough one can see a flake or two falling-small though the flakes may be, it was nice running this morning with them falling!!! I know I am weird in this regard, but I love being out on mornings like this!!!!

A couple of random thoughts this morning that as always carry the caveat of they are coming from a hobbyist and thus I hope they make a little bit of sense!!

1. Looking at the water vapor imagery one can I think see the moisture feed coming in off of the Pacific but it is really being shunted to the south and not moving very far North East. It looks like we for sure have a decent moisture feed issue with this set up and the soundings of the RUC show some pretty dry air at the 700 MB level-interesting though that the 850 level is pretty saturated.

2. I think it will be interesting to follow the smaller vorts at the 850 and 700 level to see if they can somehow kick off a bit large band of snow-I think on the GFS the 700 vort (what there is of it) comes right over the top of KC and I think this is what is kicking off that somewhat larger QPF to our NW tomorrow morning-the small 850 vort on the 6Z GFS does take a favorable track I think but it just doesn’t seem to have enough juice to really get going. The last few runs of the models have had this 850 vort in varying degrees as they have had the small piece at the 700 level-may be interesting to see what the 12Z runs show with these. As always, I think??? LOL

3. Looking ahead into next week-it still seems to me that the models are really having trouble figuring out how this active cycle is going to come together-they seem to be about 4 days late with the actual development-pieces are there but the models just don’t seem to have them all together yet. I think it will be interesting to follow the trends over the next few days regarding next week and beyond. Ok the limb just really broke there!!!! LOL

4. As I said yesterday, next week is next week-time to hunker down and follow the trends of the next 48 hours-while for sure the clock is against us, we at least have a few players that if they could just make one play could at least keep us in the game and maybe help us squeeze out a 2-3 inch snow event. It will be tough but at least we have a shot!!!! If we were in a zonal pattern with temps. In the 40’s we would have no chance-a slim chance is better than no chance!!! Hey ya know, half the fun of winter is following events like this and learning for the next time!!!

Thanks so much for the excellent update this morning-you just beat me to a pulp this morning on the timing factor LOL-no Get Smart Affect today!!! LOL
Have a great day and as always thanks for reading and providing such a great place to discuss and learn about the weather!!

Bill in Lawrence

---------------

Bill,

You have to look at the 500 mb vorticitiy and that wave tracks north of us.  This is not good, but if it can be strong enough a weak 850 mb low could be generated and then we would get our snow.

Look at the 06z GFS. Finally it has a handle on the pattern.  It will be fascinating to see set up, but it is about a day or two off on the timing, but it gets active.  I buy that solution over any of the others that have come out lately.

I must get back to my entry to finish it.  Have a great day and I am with you on enjoying even the small flurries out there.

Gary

I knew there wasn't going to be much snow..Gary hasn't put on his snow vest yet

2-4 inches still

it never works out

My forecast is down to .5" to 5".

Right on with the analysis Gary.  The system never really looked impressive early on, with the positive tilt and weak cyclogenesis.  Going back 50-53 days, it looked like the storm took a southern slant as it got closer.  We agreed never to use a previous cycle as a dead-on template, but it does match the facts going in.  To me, I'd say we (and I mean KC as well) would be lucky to get 1-2".  Just not a lot of confidence.  But, get one of the features to crank up, and who knows?  I'm going to just wait for the next big one and put this one to the side for now.
BAClair

Thanks for your blog Gary - and your 5:20 ish forecast - certainly helps to have an accurate prediction of when the "stuff" will come.  Most of the time I don't get all the complicated stuff, but I always know the forecast is the most accurate around.  BillinLawrence - I love reading your blogs.  They make no sense to me - but I like reading stuff really smart people write!  Of course, I could probably write some legal mumbo jumbo that would go over your head - everybody has a place - but just weather on this blog!  :)

Everyone be safe this afternoon.  Even a little with the cold temps can cause slick roads.  I'll be checking back later to report that it's snowing in Kingsville!  We're part of the winter advisory.  Whoo hoo!  Good and bad ...

Laura

It sounds like a non-event for the snow in KC!  However, I have been in DC for the past 3 weeks and as of today there has been no measurable snow event for the metro area all winter long!  We have been just slightly luckier in KC.  With all hope, we should get the first snow of the season this evening and lasting in some form until Wednesday.  Snow is snow where ever you go-but I'd rather be seeing it in Kansas City.

Winter Weather Advisorys just issued for Miami County and all of southeast Kansas. Doesn't include KC area.

Seriously?
This season has been pathetic in terms of snow compared to last season. I think Las Vegas has gotten more bloody snow than we have....

Sorry, I'm done whining now.

1-2 is still a safe bet. We will just have to wait and see.

Mother nature, what an evil game you play!!!!  

Perhaps all new snow totals should be made in flakes instead of inches. "1-3 flakes are possible for the viewing area.  Everyone else will get a boatload of snow and have fun sledding all day.  Sorry." LOL.  

My mother lives in Joplin and hates the winter weather.  I myself would enjoy the weather with no serious outages etc.  She compained all last year too.  I have tried to talk her into trading spots with me, but alas, doomed to wishing.............hope everyone has a great day, and stay safe out there!
Shelly

Flurrying again in McLouth.

What may be the most disappointing sign that this storm has very little potential, is that Gary is forecasting 1-2". If there was a chance that someone in viewing area could see 3", Gary would have put 1-3". For him to exclude that at this point tells me that the majority will see 1" or less.

Is there even a chance that something can come together and make this a better snow event for us?  I am hoping for someone to say yes but....well you all know our luck in KC with snow.
becky

All of the winter haters.......... I bet metro area will be in some kind of watch before noon.

Watch the Models creep up totals like the past 4 times.

Ok sorry....some of the blog was not there when I left the house this morning and my question was kinda answered by Gary.   I understand that if one of the ingredients just slightly changes that our snow amount would go up....but, is there even enough of a chance to even hope for that?  
Thank you for your imput ( whoever answers )
Becky

Just got a weather advisory for us in Cass County.  It says 2-5".  So many accumulation totals being thrown around, I have no idea what's going to happen!

Maybe a dumb question, but where do I go to find the latest advisories?

Is this a dream........am I really in a winter weather advisory??? I am on the northern edge of this and keeping my fingers crossed!! Let me just say, "if I do not get an inch or more of snow out of this I am gonna go and kick the "let it snow" sign right off my front porch snowman!!!!!"  Feel free to drive down here and look for the "let it snow" sign in the front yard, if I get the shaft again!! :o) I guess we will have to drive to the snow. Enjoy the day. Early morning huh Gary??
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Monica,
When I saw that you were in the advisory, man I knew you would be SO excited.  I hope you get the snow you want.  We, on the other hand, are not looking good for much snow.
becky

KC enjoy whatever amount of snow you get.  At least it will be snow and not freezing rain.  Here in N Tx we have the dreaded Freezing Rain Advisory in effect tonight and it will likely go until Wed. morning.  Temps are safely above freezing today, but a cold surge will move in late today and tonight dropping the temps and then rain will fall.  At least the rain should not be heavy enough to cause tree damage or power outages.  I'll be back in KC all of next week so maybe there'll be some snow in KC then?

Can you believe the last time Kansas City got a snowfall of 6" or more in January (according to NWS - EAX recording station information) was 1993??  16 YEARS AGO!!  We haven't had a snowfall greater than 4" (again... according to NWS - EAX), since January 20, 2006.  We had greater than 6" snowfalls in December 2005 and February 2004.  But it's hard to believe we haven't had one in January since Joe Montana led us to the AFC Championship game!!  

Obviously, areas other than the NWS recording station have seen snowfall totals different from this, but I think it's a pretty telling sign about the winter weather pattern in KC.  

pmccabe58.....

http://www.weather.gov/

No way we will only get 1-2 inches sorry gary and the crew but i think you got this one wrong. You will probably change your forecast soon. **************** If we feel it is going to be more we will up the total. But right now 1-2" looks okay for Kansas City, but the trend continues to look like less snow, not more. For all the snow lovers I hope we get 6"+! Jeremy

 

Hi Gary,

I have a question and maybe it has been answered before...This is not a critique by any means on your abilities to forcast the weather, just a general inquiry on how the LRC helps with forcasting.  My question is, and I'll keep it in general terms, is this:  If you are so accurate with predicting the LRC and you use this to help formulate your forcasts, how is it that you can be so dead on with the LRC and not the forcasts?  I'm speaking specifically about your prediction of 2 major snow storms in the area and 20" inches of snow.  I know you use the word "region" from time to time.  What exactly is your definition of region?  Is it a 3 state area? Within the viewing area? etc.  I'm not a weather person and am not able to follow the blog closely as many others do so as I said this might have been addressed before but I am curious how this all works. ****************** I'm not sure if Gary is on the blog so I'll take a stab at this. To judge a winter forecast now is kind of premature. At this point it may be a struggle to reach 20", but I would say to wait on that call until mid-February. Just like saying we are right for forecasting below average temperatures this winter, we are confident it will happen, but really can't be officially correct until the winter finishes. I think Gary's winter forecast is for our viewing area, but specifically I think he said 20" or something like that for KCI. We'll dig that info up when it comes to looking back at this winter. I think our forecasts day in and day out are very accurate and generally our long range forecasts are pretty good too. Jeremy

From Gary:

We can see the LRC, but forecasting the weather is always challenging.  Just look at this storm.  We are forecasting maybe one inch or two.  Our forecast was the lowest amounts forecast of any that I saw yesterday. And, I am still wondering about the inch.

Anyway, I doubt that my prediction of one or two storms coming together will happen.  The door will open for this possibility in February, but until I see its eyes I will doubt it.  Remember we are forecasting the future.

Using the LRC to forecast the weather in Chicago is much easier.  They will continue to get hit by these storm systems.  For us I should be using it to say how we will most likely get missed.  And, this has been the case recently.

Gary

As far as major snowstorms go for KC...part of that statistic is based on amounts at KCI. For instance last year I got 8 inches of snow in one storm but this was in Grain Valley as the entire SE side of KC was hammered but north of I-70 got left out. These type of snow events happen over and over with the KC area covering such a large land/county area that snowstorms just seem to be localized events vs large coverage events. Living in this area my entire life, brings me to a question that this type of localized pattern appears to become more normal for past several years vs many years ago when snow storms seemd to be more widespread.  

Jeff ********************* And once again this storm(if we can call it that) does not look impressive. Jeremy

thank you jhawk23

Are you still forecasting the start time from 2pm-4pm? or earlier?

---------------

We see no sign of any start time.  Right now I am trying to figure out what will trigger more than flurries.

Gary

It doesn't matter if you use data from KCI or Downtown or Olathe or Pleasant Hill, you still end up seeing that major snow events (6"+) are pretty uncommon in this area. For a lot of dates in January, the all-time record snows are less than 6".

You also have to remember that a lot of the "official" data for Kansas City comes from the pre-KCI era and was recorded Downtown. The all-time records cover a pretty long time period. ****************** Even when I lived in MN & WI 6" snowstorms didn't occur every year. I remember many winters without the 'big one'. Jeremy

To anyone who has been watching the "watch areas" and can understand maps and such, are they still saying several inches in Cass and Johnson in Missouri?  Thanks.

Laura

Can anyone send me to a reliable place to find out what is going to happen between here and Columbia/Jefferson City tomorrow?  
THANKS!

Jeremy--I bet you got a big snow every year when you were in Marquette, Michigan....

Ouch! The latest forecast discussion out of the NWS office stings a lot. I think im done with this winter! Lets move forward and get to some warmer air. This being below 32 and no precip is a joke this year.

Bryan

I can't watch the midday news, can someone update me with the weather as soon as it is done?  Greatly appreciated.
becky

As in most storms this year, it seems this storm will deepen when it's east of here.
DG

Let's see, isnt it about time to be buying snow blowers, plows and snow removing equipment for 10 cents on the dollar. We are in real trouble when a half inch to an inch gets us excited, let's write it off, and get onto spring. This is just not the year in KC for snow, just pray it turns around or we are in for some serious drought conditions this summer.

N2mountains, I think some are still just waiting for that first "big" snowfall of the year.

Let us hold out some hope.

So I take it nothing has changed?
becky

Becky, I didn't see the news, but you can tell from Gary and Jeremy's comments that the trend is towards less snow in KC, not more. Also this is what NWS is saying.

  N2mountains said:
Let's see, isnt it about time to be buying snow blowers, plows and snow removing equipment for 10 cents on the dollar. We are in real trouble when a half inch to an inch gets us excited, let's write it off, and get onto spring. This is just not the year in KC for snow, just pray it turns around or we are in for some serious drought conditions this summer.



Geez - I hope we don't have drought conditions. I HATE being a hose-dragger!

Thanks RDub.  It is depressing though  :(

"And once again this storm(if we can call it that) does not look impressive. Jeremy"

I dont see how you can call this a small storm.   It looks to be a real powerhouse to our south and once it gets east of here.    Its going to really crank up over the NE.    Just because we wont get much out of this storm, I dont think one should call it "small" as others would argue that statement after its all over!

What is the "simple answer" as to why it is easier to predict rain totals vs. snow?  I know a lot of the thunderstorm systems are analyzed in real-time, but you seem to predict them well in advance with greater accuracy.  Was weather radar (doppler or otherwise) just designed more for tracking spring and summer thunderstorms rather than winter weather?  I honestly don't know and I am just generally curious.  

in my upinion it looks like a decent little snow around two inches more south and north but its so cold it will be fluffy so it will accumilate fast and couse issues on the roads as we know it takes less then an inch to couse major issues after that it looks like a nice warm up next week at least accorting to the GFS and im a warm weather lover!!!!!!!!

the simple answer is that it's not really any easier. it's just that small changes in the total precip don't matter much for rain events, but they do for snow. if someone forecasts 0.3" of rain and we get 0.9", it's not that big a deal. But for a snow event, that would mean the difference between 3 inches and 9....a much bigger difference in terms of how it effects people.

iWeather - simply put it is a question of precision and climate norms.  In spring time, no one really cares about the difference between a tenth of an inch or a quarter of an inch, but in Winter time, that could be the difference between 1-5 inches depending on the ratio.

Also, in Winter, you really need to be in the top half of the storm to get the snow.  In the Spring time, you want to be on a boundary which is a bit more wide spread.

And last, Winter time precip is harder to get.  It has to be very efficient to maximize snowfall.  In spring, moisture is more abundant and easier to get.

Snowfall is very hard to be accurate on in totals.  Most people don't understand that.  That is why often you get a range with snowfall.

Ha...Rdub beat me to the punch.

Why are we still even bothering looking at model runs? The LRC is far more accurate. All the bogus model runs giving us more snow, less snow, wet snow, dry snow, fat snow, thin snow, etc.... I DONT CARE WHAT THE MODEL RUNS SAY ANY MORE!

It's not going to be a big snow. There will not be any big snows this winter. The heaviest snow we have got so far was a 4" snow south of the river, and up where I live the heaviest we saw was a 3" snow. This will continue to be the case - there WILL NOT be a "winter storm" this year - and we will not have more than 4" out of a single snow storm this winter. In fact with January/February twist to the LRC, we should actually see less snow out of these storm systems than we saw back in December.

Get over it, people.

wow someone is not getting enough fiber in their diet.

If you want a big snow, you are going to have to head south and east.  That is where the big snow is going to be.  I have long given up on a big snow event.  I would be happy if it didn't snow anymore this winter. :)  I am ready for spring.  Give me May and June and non-destructive storms. :)

Kristi

What was the total snow amount for the morning drive?  I could not watch the news.

Well Brian, foodl3 has somewhat of a point aside from his delivery method haha

What I am wondering is when this coming phase of activity spurs back up like we saw in December isnt it going to be pretty much the same....Chicago getting all the precip and we are on the backside? I noticed the mention of us getting a big snow if the ingredients are right....I Will give it another month.  Doesnt look good though.  We have to face the fact that when it comes to snow Kansas City is not the best place to be for it.

Once im over my saddness due to lack of snow I can be happy again for the spring storms.  That is one thing we can always be assured to get.  Then there will be people complaining about that just like they do over 1-3 inches of snow.  You cant have it perfect!


Anyway, if it were a wet 1-3 it sure would look a lot better on the trees that a dry snow!

Bummer winter (again) for snow lovers in KC.  I've never bought into the predictions of over 20" of snow this winter, 15" or less was my prediction back in Nov.  Big snows of over 6" are rare in KC and people in KC need to treat each anticipated snow event as if 1-3" will fall until very good evidence for greater snow totals is evident.  The snow lovers in KC that feel like they're missed or cheated all the time need to get over it or move to a snowier climate.

Interesting thought - "more than three days in a row below freezing."

Yes, it looks like it will be four days.  We had two other runs of three days on Dec 15th-17, and again on Dec 20-22nd.  

With this little run at the end of Jan, it looks like we may be right at average or a hair under for mean temps.  [Less that a degree over right now]  Combined with December, the first two months of Winter will have ended combined under average mean temps.

The current models are interesting for what is upcoming.  While I think I know what this little "twist" may be for Feb, I guess I will try my best to be prudent so that it will not be as hard to remove my foot from my mouth later...LOL

I find it amusing to watch how emotions play into forecasting.  I myself have been guilty of wishcasting, but it is fun to watch how folks emotions have been as wild as the temp swings this year.  

This long term longwave to our West has been devilish this year.  While it seemed plausible one or two storms may break far enough south, it is determined not to let it happen.  Maybe one more shot..but not holding my breath.  That would be the quick/easy way to get a bunch of snow.  We may be resigned to the vort max/shortwave variety of a few 1-3 inch storms.

I am still thinking the same dynamic in Spring will work much different in surface results.  Where in the Winter, you don't want to be in the warm sector, and look forward to the deformation zones, in Springtime - for active weather, you want the warm sector and avoid the top end of the storms like the plague.

In looking at precip patterns in the last 60 days, it is very revealing to where these surface lows have tracked.  This graphic from the AHPS is interesting in how what has been deemed as "dry" has actually happened over the region...

http://water.weather.gov/index.php?layer%5B%5D=0&layer%5B%5D=1&layer%5B%5D=4&timetype=RECENT&loctype=WFO&units=engl&timeframe=last60days&product=per_normal&loc=wfoEAX

This storm will be major to the south of Kansas City.  The NWS is forecasting a chance of thunder with the freezing rain and sleet in Oklahoma and southern Missouri, in areas that had terrible ice storms last winter.  KC folks should be glad they are not taking a direct hit.  I feel for folks in eastern Oklahoma that have been ravaged by ice in recent winters.  Even here in N Tx the Freezing Rain Advisory has been modified to an Ice Storm Warning for tonight through noon Wednesday with forecasts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice with temps in the 20s during the period.  Not good.

Are we in the active part of the LRC? Or is this starting point within the next week or two?

The major winter storm that I have been wishing for is going to happen...but only way south of us!  Nothings new...we always get missed by the big one.  We will be lucky to get 1" of snow here in LS.  Oh well...maybe next year.

Jacob

4444 views to this blog today, not bad at 1pm

So on Brett's mid-day report, he shows it starting around 2:00ish, and still says 1-2 inches ending by mid-morning.  But, even though it was a few hours ago, Gary's comment stating "We see no sign of any start time.  Right now I am trying to figure out what will trigger more than flurries" makes me wonder... while they have to put out a forecast for the general public, is there some concern among the weather team that what SHOULD happen actually WILL happen?

I love reading the blog, because it seems we often get the "insight" on the weather that the casual news/weather watcher doesn't get. : )  And of course, I'm PERFECTLY happy getting nothing out of this!!  I dont really want to use another "snow day" tomorrow.

Where is Gary?

Scott, this has been deemed a dry winter because it has been a dry winter.  Since December 1, KCI has recorded 1.87 inches of precipitation, or 27% below average. If you want to go back to November 1, we're 29% below average.  And keep in mind that 66% of our precipitation since December 1 came in one three-hour thunderstorm on December 27.  You can slice it, dice it, chop it and spin it any way you want to make your forecast verify, but it has been a dry winter.  Anyway, I would prefer to wait until March to hand out report cards.

For all of you speculating that the biggest storm will be "South of KC"...

How far South are you talking?  Clinton is forecasted to get 5 inches.  At least that's what I've heard/read today.

"Where is Gary?"

Probably at work.

Kristin,

The biggest part of the storm will be in southern Missouri.  According to the NWS latest update...we here in Kansas City and the surrounding areas will be getting around 1" of snow with 2" amounts south of the metro.  I would not say that Clinton will get 5".  I would say more 1-3" possible.  The heavy amounts like 5"+ will be in southern Mo.  

Jacob

Wow, yet another storm teasing us!! I will be happy with 3 inches, that would be the biggest snow of the season and be close to the biggest snow in two years here in Drexel!! I really hope it comes together, but I doubt it will.

Down in Drexel, you have a shot at getting 3 inches.

"KansasPatriot said:
4444 views to this blog today, not bad at 1pm"

...means that we are anxiously waiting for an update...

:-)

Im gonna stick with my gut and we will still see 2-4 inches of snow out of this storm.

NWS says 2-4" for the Clinton area.  That appears to be about as much snow as anyone can expect from this storm.  As one goes south from Clinton, the snow transitions to sleet.  Eventually as you get south into Arkansas and Oklahoma freezing rain starts to become a problem.  There is a significant surge of warm air aloft in advance of this storm, but the cold arctic high pressure at the surface is too strong to be replaced by the warm air, which is why ice is the major threat from this storm.  There is no strong upper level low to trigger a heavy snow band, just a stretched-out feature ejecting from the southwest US, which is another repeating theme of this winter's weather pattern.

I second that beckysma! lol
becky

I hope so RDub!!

I am so glad that my 85 year old father moved from rural NE Oklahoma to a retirement apartment in KC North in July.  The last two winters with extended power outages caused by ice were rough (luckily they had a good insert in their fireplace to heat the house).  We, "the kids" lived too far away to help.

I read that OSU has announced that they are giving away tickets for tonight's OSU vs OU game which had previously been sold out, but now they know the ice will keep many from attending.

For KC - snow flurries are nice, but any accumulation seems to cause too many problems.

Just looked at the radar and from Branson to Broken Arrow. OK - they are getting some sleet/freezing rain now. While I sincerely hope we get some snow (and being south of KC, we are supposed to), I feel for those getting the ice and hope that we will not. Adrian is close to the northern edge of the ice, and last time we had an ice storm we had no power for 10 days. My son attends Drury in Springfield, and is expecting quite a bit of ice there.

Pat

Well this thing does not look too promising, but that is the trend this winter... I will wait though and see what the next three weeks hold, at least it should get more wild in that time period, we did have a 30 minute burst of mod-heavy snow last night near 10 p.m. so that was neat but it is getting kind of irritating that parts of the UAE have gotten a bigger snow storm than we have had all season and that they don't even have a WORD for snow. But it has been a wild ride this winter in other respects, and there is still hope so we will see;)

-------------------

Nick,

Yes this is frustrating. Let's see if anything happens later today or tonight.  The forcing is rather week.

Gary

Happy Catholic Schools Week!!!

The children at Sacred Heart Preschool are doing the "SNOW" cheer all day.  Perhaps a little divine intervention might help?  ;)

I hope so!!  I am looking for some beauty in the midst of the frigid cold!!

The biggest snow totals will be south of St. Louis around Farmington MO.  Even St. Louis will pick up six or seven inches.  Southern IL will have some hefty snow totals.  Southern MO will have freezing rain and/or sleet.

Kristi

I talked to my mom in Lexington KY and she said it's been nothing BUT the weather on TV there - they're predicting an inch of sleet, 1/2" or more of ice, and lots of snow on top (or under) that.  And my husband (who abhors winter - would rather just burrow in and hibernate) - I've been trying to convince him to move to be closer to my mom because they always have VERY mild winters!  Oops!  They've had a serious drought for a couple years now - seems like they miss every rain and snow - kind of like here, only we always get the rain!  So ... I'm not envying her one bit!  

Laura

Weatherteam

How does the weather look for Thursday morning, have a flight to Tampa for Super Bowl and want to make sure it is not delayed.

GO STEELERS

Thank you

Tony

italian- heavy snow thur. all flights have been cancelled.

where the hell is the snow!

Is there any chance of this shifting and us getting more snow?

95rred - I heard that they were going to move the Super Bowl to Hawaii to avoid all chances of snow this year.

Here is the web briefing from the NWS

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/

ok if there is that much moisture over us, what is the issue with the development of snow?  I am asking because I do not know and I am still learning.  Thanks
becky

Just heard from friends in Webb City and Monett... it's icing very badly already there.  Looks like all of SWMO is turning into an ice skating rink.  Looks like most of the moisture is going stream right up the I-44 corridor.

Gary,
It is a mess down here already.  In the Joplin area we are seeing light sleet, snow and frz. drizzle.  We have accidents just about everywhere.  East bound 44 is closed, it is not good.
Doug

I'm praying SWMO doesn't get another ice storm like they've had in the past.  We moved from Springfield to KC this year and our winter was pretty tame compared to the winters we had in Springfield these last few years.

Looks bad down in SWMO and it has just started.   This is going to be really bad for those who get the ice as opposed sleet or snow.    Its going to be a long 24hrs for you guys down there.... Good Luck!

wow, if I saw that web breifing correctly, here in drexel they are saying 4 or 5 inches? They being NWS, not the action weather team.

how about we talk about the weather effecting us, not the weather in sourthern mo.

guitarist, there really wont be any weather effecting us.  It it effect or affect? Anyways, this will be just a small disturbance for us we wont see much from the way things are.  

We still have the whole month of Feb with many possible situations that can set up for something.

Becky, the air at the surface here is very dry, that is one thing. Even with moisture above us, if it's dry at the ground it won't snow. Also, there is no really good trigger around this area to set off the precip. That's basically what Gary is explaining (in more detail) in the blog entry.

Ya Gary where is the snow dang it

This is not effecting us at the moment and will only be a minor inconvenience for our area.    The I-44 corridor will be the real story out of this storm.

people from all over read this blog, chill out guitar hero

I have very light precip falling from the sky here...it is a drizzle. I am hoping this little event turns into more than expected. Wooo hooo!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Thanks again RDub.  I seem to have learned more about the severe weather than I had with the winter weather.  I think that may be because we have not had enough of it for me to learn from. lol
becky

For those needing to verify road conditions, please remember to check with MODOT.  As of 3:25 I-44 was not closed due to weather, but was covered with snow.  They update the road conditions/closures very regularly.  

I wouildn't rule out the "poof" factor just yet, but it's very likely this may be the last blast for the season.

Stay safe, Monica!  Those of you in the south part of the forecast area are going to see more action than those of us here in the metro.

Cindy,
The MODOT travelers map only indicates the roads are covered...  Does not tell what type of precip is covering the roadway.  From what I have read on the NWS site, it is freezing drizzle.  For those of you interested in the short term forecast for Springfield, go to the NWS Springfield office site at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/ and click on the short term forecast.

Kristi

So.......when is this snow supposed to start you have not really said so I was wondering if you guys could let us know.......thanks.

So.......when is this snow supposed to start you have not really said so I was wondering if you guys could let us know.......thanks.

The snow will start at 4:49 promptly.  Grab a beer and sit back and enjoy.

Monica keep me posted on what's goin on down your way.. I have a huge meeting for my son tomorrow and I need my helper who lives down your way.  Told her I'd keep my eyes on the blog n give her a heads up.

Thanks
Stacy.

...................still holdin out some hope for a big snow

Jimmymac-  While this response will be buried, I thought it fair to respond.  It seems you have an axe to grind...grind away.  My thoughts had nothing to do with any forecast.  I was showing the paths as it related to what I thought might be impactful for Spring.

Yes, KMCI is as you say.  Ok.  I showed a regional view from the AHPS.  If you have an issue with their data, take it up with them.  From a forecast perspective, yes..March will be the time to reflect.  

New Blog

why oh why does mother nature have it out for KC??????  We (I) want snow!