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New data is in...update

11:30 PM update:

After the band of drizzle passed by the KC metro area it has turned into a heavy band of snow.  At 11:30 PM it extended from Sedalia through Warrensburg to just north of Clinton and back to the KS/MO state line.  This could produce a quick inch or two of snow before it tapers off. 

previous entry below:

Good evening bloggers,

Freezing drizzle and some very light snow is falling in spots.  The roads already had salt on them but there may be some slick spots out there. 

There is a lot to analyze tonight on this disorganized storm system.  I am not shocked at all that it hasn't come together.  As I talked about this morning, the ingredients just aren't impressive enough to create lift.  Ingredient #1, the 500 mb upper level short wave energy, is shearing out in the positively tilted trough.  We still have to watch the development of new vorticity later tonight and Tuesday.  The NAM and NGM have this redevelopment of vorticity and then try to shoot a disturbance over us during the day on Tuesday.  Because of the lack of an upper level storm ejecting out ingredient #2 hasn't produced the circulation to create any lifting.  So, the moisture is just sitting there without anything to create any significant radar ehoes.

So, expect some freezing drizzle overnight with some light snow possible and we may still have some minor accumulation overnight.  And, then during the day Tuesday there is still a chance of this system ejecting out a small piece of energy creating lift with the colder air moving in.  Yes, there is near zero degree air just north of us trying to surge our way which may actually help saturate the layer in the morning.

I will go over this strange set up in a more easy to understand way on NBC Action News at 10 PM.  We still think there is a chance of some small accumulation of snow on Tuesday so stay with NBC Action News and we'll keep you advised.

Gary

Published Monday, January 26, 2009 8:18 PM by glezak

Comments

 

WeatherFreak said:

You guys seem surprised that yet ANOTHER storm has skirted the KC area!!  Come on people... this is the NORM for this area of the country.  

I'm still convinced that our geographic location in reference to the Rocky Mountains and Gulf of Mexico has SOMETHING to do with why we miss all the good storms.  Whether it's winter snow storms or spring severe weather, the 50 mile radius that is centered in downtown KC always sees the nasty/big stuff go right around us.  It will be heading in with huge potential, only to dry up, move past us and then reorganize.  It's almost like it loses it's Rocky Mountain influence, pauses (as it goes over KC) and the regains it's strength from the Gulf flow in Central Missouri (I know it's much more complicated than that, but you get my drift).  

This current storm is almost the icing on the cake for the KC area "missing out".  A huge snow and ice event south and southeast of here with wave #1 of the storm... while wave #2 is forecast to bring a very nice snow event 100 miles to our north.  It's happened so many times in our past... there HAS to be more than just coincidence to all of these misses.

BTW... I just spoke with my mother... who lives just south of the St Louis metro area.  They are expecting 6-10" from this storm.  That will make this their FOURTH 6"+ snowfall in the last two winters.  
January 26, 2009 8:33 PM
 

tornadochaser said:

i live in lee's summit what do you thing of the snowfall amout here we have a dusting on the ground??
January 26, 2009 8:34 PM
 

k lynn said:

Are we done with our chances of any more bigger snows this winter?????

---------------

There will be a few more chances, but we have yet to have even one chance of a big snow so far.

Gary

January 26, 2009 8:38 PM
 

Greg said:

119th & Ridgeview in Olathe 10 deg. with very light freezing mist and or flurries. I for one love living here, I've been here all of my life, so far... 42 yrs. and have seen several 6-10" snowstorms, stick around long enough and you just might see one. If you don't like it MOVE!
January 26, 2009 8:47 PM
 

kb0rpj said:

not to rub it in or anything but with our 4.4" of snow from sunday, we are now up to nearly 18 inches for the season. almost to our seasonal norms.
January 26, 2009 8:52 PM
 

chfs327 said:

January 26, 2009 8:54 PM
 

heavysnow said:

We have had some flurries and now freezing drizzle
January 26, 2009 8:54 PM
 

95rred said:

Still not in the "active part" of pattern. This week was forcast to be dry so as Herm says "get over it"  Although I have to admit it makes me sick that STL. is getting 6 inches  and we get nothing..By the way, are we still right on schedual for the active part to return in feb. ??
January 26, 2009 8:56 PM
 

HotAir123 said:

I am curious as well as to if there is still expectation of an active pattern returning for the beginning of Feb.  
January 26, 2009 9:01 PM
 

RickyTim said:

Light freezing drizzle in Ottawa as of 9:00 p.m. Slick as heck on my deck and driveway!
January 26, 2009 9:08 PM
 

tornadochaser said:

in lee's summit we have freezing drizzle how long will this last??
January 26, 2009 9:15 PM
 

N2mountains said:

LRC


Little
Reasonable
Chance
January 26, 2009 9:35 PM
 

crazaussie said:

6-10 inches in St. Louis?? Not fair!! Looks like my chances of seeing a significant snowfall before I move to Florida in 2 weeks isn't happening. I guess I'll just have to wait until I go on a ski trip to Colorado or something...  SUCKS!!

Gary: So I guess the eventful part of Feb. will be the second half of February after I leave, eh? Oh well...
January 26, 2009 9:38 PM
 

outgoing101 said:

Where did this freezing drizzle come from? I thought that this was supposed to be a minor to no snow accumulation event. I almost broke my neck taking the dogs outside, I was not prepared for the thin layer of ice on everything.

LOL N2mountains.
January 26, 2009 9:44 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Had some sort of freezing mist here, slick coat on the cover for the grill on the back deck.  124th and S.L.

Nothing heavy, but noticeable.
January 26, 2009 9:44 PM
 

snowymountains said:

I am also jealous of St. Louis.  I hope we get some better chances in the next couple weeks!
January 26, 2009 9:47 PM
 

Ipushsnow said:

It hasn't happened yet this season,and you beleive in the LRC,then it is a safe bet that it won't happen.

I don't see how we can think we will get a good snow this year.If we do get a large amount of precip it will be rain again.
January 26, 2009 9:59 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Ha, the emotions are running wild tonight.  LOL.  Busted Winter forecast claims [with still another month to go], boring Winter rants [several 50+ temp swings and more 40+ temp swings], and expectations of a big winter storm when this event was never hyped to be much of anything [atleast on this station].

I might be the only person in North America encouraged by recent model trends.  But alas, its probably more natural to be angry with what hasn't happened than appreciate what has.

I am very puzzled by freezing drizzle falling.  In looking at the soundings, I am not seeing anything in the atmosphere anywhere near freezing.  I am stumped.
January 26, 2009 10:04 PM
 

LBF1958 said:

I drove from Liberty to Lee's Summit this evening. That was not fun! (It took an hour).

Glad to be home.

January 26, 2009 10:16 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

So, are we still 1-3 inches for snow or is that a no go now
January 26, 2009 10:19 PM
 

Ipushsnow said:

Scott,
I did not say the winter forcast was bust,just the snow amounts.

I don't see how we can make up 15+ inches in the next month.If we do I will be the first to say I should not second guess Gary and his snow forcast.

As far as the rest of the winter forcast,he could not get any better.

I do have a good reason for needing a good snow forcast.
January 26, 2009 10:25 PM
 

tornadochaser said:

kansaspatriot the 1-3" is a no go only the dusting to 2" in the pre dawn hours. how far soth is the 2" line from lee's summit  mo and is what you showed on the air heavy snow in the morning gary??
January 26, 2009 10:32 PM
 

Darkwolfe said:

From the radar echos, I see a great big "poof" in our near future.  A dusting only through tomorrow and maybe another dusting on Thursday.  Other than that, nada.

Which is rather disappointing to me too, but it happens.
January 26, 2009 10:38 PM
 

CtinaDitty04 said:

Christina here from Lee's Summit.

The roads are already iced over here and are already VERY slick. I had to pull over at least 3-4 times to deice my windshield for it kept freezing over.

Everyone please, BE CAREFUL!
January 26, 2009 10:50 PM
 

Winterfan said:

Dusting of snow in Warrensburg.
January 26, 2009 11:56 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

crazaussie and snowymountains,

No 6-10" snows out here in St. Louis. So far we have only had 1" of snow. Sounds like it might be more than some of you back in KC, but it isn't much, not when they were expecting 3-6" here. They say there might be another band tomorrow afternoon, but it doesn't look too good at this point. No major storm here either.

David
January 27, 2009 1:16 AM
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