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A little slick here in Blue Springs, but not too bad. Be careful out there this morning!

Well, guess we will be waiting for a while...still have one last shot at this the whole month of Feb. I couldnt find on LRC weather.com the total number of storms that came through in December.  I guess they we more disturbances than storms.  However, wouldnt be be able to get a decent guess as to how many chances for snow we could have in Feb based off how many we saw during the active cycle in December?

Good early morning weather team!! I was woke up by THUNDER.....and the sound of rain and sleet. I have not been outside but it looks like we have a nice layer of sleet and very little ice on the tree's. Knowing our luck we got everysingle precip event BUT snow.....does not look like we got but maybe a flake or two. Story of our life. Well good luck today.......I am sure the critics will be out full force about the lack of snow. Our power went out last evening for what ever reason and was out for 2 hours.....enough for me, feel bad for those who are without for a long time. Ugh!! Have a good day and good luck!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

    Hey Gary, I recently moved to Saint Louis, although I am still an avid fan of yours and follow your forecasts closely, as many times they are far more accurate than I have come to find the forecasts here are. As of 4:55 this morning in Sunset Hills, MO, I have picked up just under 2 inches of total snowfall, and there appears to be more on the way. Also loving snow, and living in Saint Louis; will this storm impress, depress; and are there any great chances in the future for measureable wintry precipitation? Thanks and congratulations with the success of LRC Weather.com!

Gary:

Good chilly breezy morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 16 degrees this morning with fairly good fetch of NE winds blowing. We have some extremely light drizzle this morning-I mean light to where every 3-4 minutes you feel something hit you!!! The roads here are fine and even the sidewalks “dried” out last night so there are just a few ice patches but nothing too bad.

Ok-here we go-this is probably an entry where The Get Smart Affect would be a good thing but here goes nothing!!!

1. My ramblings on most mornings are just that but in yesterday’s diatribe I really made a serious mistake: if one looks at the surface data and sees just how far south the cold air is locked it is no wonder that most of the heavier bands of precipitation are forming south of here. It is in the teens and 20’s from the Texas Panhandle all the way into Northern Arkansas-while not the whole picture, that depth of cold air to me is for sure a clue as to how this would all set up. I got so caught up in the models yesterday morning that I didn’t pay enough attention to what was happening right before the eyes-as you have always said make sure to always look out the window!!! It is tough for us to get a decent swath of precipitation when the cold air is locked in that far south. It can happen, but it takes a much stronger/organized storm to crank it to get it done. Should of looked out the “window” yesterday LOL!!!!

2. Number one aside, I do find it interesting how the 0z GFS (I haven’t seen the 6z runs yet) still tries to form a weak vort at the 850 level and have that track over Joplin-I still wonder if maybe the qpf output is not a bit off as there is currently some snow forming on radar and heading into south KC-not sure if it is reaching the ground but it does appear that that small vort is at least trying to kick up some precipitation. I think Lawrence is too far North this time but this could be a case that were say from Ottawa into Belton maybe sees a bit more than a dusting but Lawrence is left high and dry. Maybe something to watch this morning.

3. Looking into next week and beyond (this is where the Get Smart Affect really needs to come into play LOL) I think the models are showing pieces of the puzzle as they are for sure showing much more energy in the southern stream. However, the runs have really lacked the strong presence of the cold air. I wonder if that is due to the fact that they have a negative NAO worked into them which in turn is not allowing the SE ridge to flex its muscles thus not allowing the ridge in the west to really become more North/South. Scott blogged about this on the LRC site last week and I have always thought that there is a possibility that the NAO et al cycle and are a part of the LRC themselves. My main thought here is that the models in the next few days may begin to pick up on the positive NAO (you can even begin to see it in the NAO forecasts) in early February thus it will then change the outputs and we will begin to see more cold air being brought into the equation next week. I say all of this because if the models are beginning with the assumption that the NAO is negative, it will have an effect on the outputs. Looking at this through the LRC, I think that we will see a positive NAO by early February-once the models pick up on this I think next week will begin to come into clearer focus. I think between now and say Friday we will begin to see some runs that not only show the southern stream energy but also begin to show colder air. There is no doubt that this point is way beyond where I should be going given my limited knowledge of meteorology, but it something I have been thinking about. Be gentle!!! LOL

4. Regarding this winter: I think this winter has been great-I really do-yes, the snow overall has been somewhat lacking but I still built an igloo and snow fort with my two boys and the lakes have been frozen for the most part since early December. There have been several winters over the past decades where none of this would have occurred even in the 70’s-so yea, I am happy with this winter!!! The most important point is that it is not over yet-we still have all of February and even the March (and the most ironic part is that it would not surprise if in the end we wind up with some 3-5 inch wet snow nightmare in early April-I love snow but man snow in late March and April is just horrendous!!!!) Thus, I am in no way giving up on this winter-we are in the middle of the 3rd quarter-too early to give up yet. In 1992-93 the winter we had big snows, the two biggest ones occurred in February-January was overall very dry and even warmish-let’s just see what we get in the next 6 weeks!!!

Ok-I have climbed out on way too many limbs here this morning and all of them have probably broken LOL. If some of this is deemed way too far off the mark, please delete the post-I don’t mind making myself look foolish, but there is a limit!!! LOL

Have a great day and thanks so much for providing all the updates and as always thanks for reading and most importantly thanks for providing such a great place to discuss and learn about the weather!!!

Bill in Lawrence

We are getting pretty heavy sleet now in Gladstone.  How long will this last?

Gary:

Sorry just me again-I really should have looked out the window!! LOL We have drizzle, sleet, and snow falling currently here in SW Lawrence-it is still light but there is now a thin coat of ice again on the side walks and my street has small coat of ice on it as well-nothing bad but there are some slick spots developing right now.

Bill in Lawrence

Got a weather report here for the Lawrence/Topeka/Jefferson County area and it is contrary to what Bill was saying.  According to area law enforcement agencies, the highways are now becoming slick again.  Several areas in I-70 in Douglas and Shawnee County, 24 HWY in Douglas, Jefferson and SHawnee County, 40 HWY in Douglas and Shawnee County, 59 Hwy in Jefferson and Atchison, 92 Hwy in Jefferson and Leavenworth County, 16 Hwy in Jefferson and Jackson County, 192 in Jefferson and Leavenworth County, all are experiencing light freezing drizzle with areas of ice and very slick spots.  Ice is reported to be developing on windshields of Deputies cars on the road area wide.  It is 13 here in McLouth.  Road chemicals don't work very well at this temp.  No school closings here.

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Yes, an area of snow has rapidly developed.  It  is light but everything should get covered.

Gary

Sorry all, I forgot, K-4 in Jefferson County is also very slick in both Shawnee and Jefferson County.  Nothing new with that one.  That road is dangerous in dry conditions on the Jefferson County side.

Very light dusting of snow/sleet here in Paola, I am thrilled sure hope it stays away the rest of today too!  Cars are passing by the house relatively well, no sliding that I can see.  I walked out on the deck it's not as slick as it is "crunchy" I think I'll take Windy out for a quick walk and check the streets.  Be safe everyone and thankful we didn't get a major ice storm.  
--deb

Well listening to the scanner it doesn't sound like the highways in KC are doing very well either.  Just lovely.  Could be worse, we could be in southern Missouri trying to walk without falling down.

My husband doesn't know if he'll get in to work - haven't looked at our roads in Kingsville since it's still dark.  Has anyone traveled on 50 Highway this morning (from Warrensburg towards Independence) - would he be better off to go 291 or on I-70?  HELP!  Thanks.  Laura

50 HIWAY IS CLEAR IN LEE'S SUMMIT

La Cygne has thundersleet and snow early this morning. We have a light dusting of snow and sleet currently with tiny, tiny flakes still drifting down.

Still a mess down here gary.  We are all sleet and snow now with a little bit of thunder.  Roads are just a mess and completely covered with ice everywhere.  At least we have gotten a pretty good dose with this system with more light to moderate sleet and snow continuing for a chunck of the day today.  Sorry you haven't seen much.
Doug

Update on 24 Hwy between Lawrence and Topeka, very slick, multiple vehicle slide offs and at 1 overturned vehicle.  The turnpike is beginning to be in better shape if anyone is headed for Topeka.  It is now 11 here in McLouth and slick.

Gary don't want to put you in a bind, but what about Sunday.  What might the weather be doing, mainly need to know about wind.  Its the wind that effects my smoker more than temp.  Gotta smoke that meat for the game.

Good morning! This is my first blog post!! Whew hoo!!
Well, Spring Hill, KS looks good. The grass looks as if it has heavy frost on it. We didn't get much snow at all. Boo hoo!! Roads look good and Kids are sad! Hopefully, we'll get a little more snow today.
Thanks for your passion,
The Dosher Family

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for San Antonio, Texas... which has a normal high this time of year in mid-60's.  Guess we need to move to South Texas (or Las Vegas or UAE) if we want to see any REAL winter weather.  LOL!!!

The high in San Antonio is 65 today and 60 tommorow.  The low is 35 so I doubt they are going to get much winter weather.  

Well if they get any winter weather it will shut the city down.  They have no winter weather equipment there.  The airport has one truck equiped to dispense chemicals, but not on the runways.  I was there stationed in the 1980's, you want to see a headache be there when they get even 30 minutes of freezing drizzle or a rare over night 1 inch snow.  Very few of their firetrucks and ambulances are equipped for chains.

We are inside that band of "heavier" precip just shown on radar and I can tell you that the snow and maybe some freezing drizzle is very light here in Blue Springs.  

I did the K7 and I70 commute into KC and the roads were fine.  Average flow of traffic was about 5 mph below the speed limit.

I know... but the NWS still issued a WSW.  Have we even had a Winter Storm WARNING issued here this winter??  I think we may have when I was cruising the southern caribbean in mid-December... but I can't remember.  

San Antonio isnt going to get any winter weather... it is 64 degrees there right now and it just says MAYBE some patchy freezing drizzle tomorrow morning and a high of 61 lol. But back to here on the radar on weather.com it looks like there is more development back out in western/ middle kansas but i dont see it on your radar gary.

Moderate band of snow developing over central Kansas.  Any chance it will hold together long enough to make it to KC??

Leave it to the NWS to issue a winter storm warning for a county that's going to have a high in the 60's that afternoon.  If they are just going to see a very slim chance of a light ice coating in the very early morning hours, isn't that what a winter weather advisory is for??  The NWS continues to out-forecast itself.  At least I know it's not just something they do here alone.  LOL

I think the Olathe school district is going to go the whole winter with no snow days!! The kids will be so disappointed!

do u think that havey band of snow will make it to kc ???

do u think that havey band of snow will make it to kc ???

Tornadochaser,
If it does, which of course I don't know if it will, I will probably leave work...lol
becky

thamks bewild79 i hope it does and were do u work i live in lee's summit so i hope it makes it

tornadochaser,
don't get me wrong...I wouldn't mind having it come here.  I live on K hwy between 45 hwy and 152 in parkville and live on 1 acr of land and hubby likes to pull the kids in a sled behind the go cart lol
becky

O sorry and I work on the Maple woods community college campus

cool i hope it comrs

new blog