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The RUC did pretty well with yesterdays (lack of) precipitation, so I guess we should trust it for today too....

Gary,  is this the storm in the last cycle that intensified as it passed to our east?  

Snow, schmow. If this little dusting is all we're going to get, just enough to cause wrecks with the crazy drivers, but not much else, then it might as well just stay away! Can you tell I am disgusted with this winter? =)

Join the club Marlina.  LOL  Like a the Kansas City Royals develop major league stars for other clubs... how many more winter storms do we get to be the breeding grounds for major storms for eastern Missouri???  It just seems to be an endless cycle.  

My thoughts exactly Marlina!

Remember when Gary asked when we thought KC Metro would get a big storm?  Well I guess Feb 2-6.  So, I am holding onto hope for that time range.  If nothing happens during that time, Im done and will start hoping for spring.  

1-2 inches today :P

Holmes. Here is your wish

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_300s.gif

chfs that is from yesterday... and that didnt happen

Chfs327 now if that would only come true!  My kids haven't used any snow days this year!  If they don't use them then the last day of school will come sooner.

Thats not Yesterdays Forecast. Its a Fantsay Storm for Later in Febuary. I was posting it because Holmes made that comment and that is for Febuary 8th. Not todays Storm

Praying for a foot! Hey, I'm aiming big!! LOL!!
When was the last time we had a foot of snow?? Anyone know??

chfs, the model run you posted is from yesterday's 18z run...

anyway, the gfs overdid today's storm by a lot, even only a short time out from the event. so i'm not inclined to trust it much right now.

You would think that somewhere in the algorythm's that determine the model forecasts, there would be a practical limiting factor.  Like the chance of us seeing 2"+ of QPF on February 8.  So unreal.   Its like me thinking about how I am going to spend the Powerball Jackpot while I am at Quicktrip buying the ticket.

It should do something big around Feb 7-10... I'll be out of town.  The last two times I've been out of town in the winter months (Dec 2007 and Dec 2008), KC has gotten at least 3" of snow.  

Lol. I know. But still
Fun to look at

Weatherjaded when you win the Powerball remember your friends here LOL

At this point and time I would be happy with 3-4" of snow.  Just a good snowfall.  It is very strange not having a big snowfall.  It's kind of like the calm before the powerful storm.  I just keep feeling like something big is going to happen soon.  

Im trying to imagine what would happen to this city if we were to get a huge snow... people may think the world was ending.... LOL its been (seemingly) forever since weve had a nice huge snowstorm.

Im holding on to hope that the next two weeks are going to be very interesting... I still dont think winter is over yet.

Some of you folks are like mistreated girlfriends that keep going back to the bad boyfriend.  The boyfriend in this case, of course, is KC's weather.

I'm so glad we missed the snow for the most part.  Looking at the long range forcast it seems to have a lot 50's in it.  I'm hoping this hold out!

I have not been pleased with the GFS in the last few weeks.  Very erratic.  I still can't bare to turn to the NAM, so I am stuck with the Euro, Canadian [gasp], RUC and the SREF.

I think the GFS has been sitting too close to the NAM on the NCEP page.  LOL

Keep an eye on how the ridge develops off the West Coast in the next few days and week.  That is a tell for what will be coming in the next three weeks.  Will it set up like December did, or will it set up like the previous cycle in late October?

If I had to hope for one or the other, I hope for the late October, even if it does put long range forecasts a bit at risk...it would be a wetter solution.  ;-)  I guess that would be the selfish side of me wanting a big snowstorm!

Gary,
Out here in St. Louis, we are approaching 2" of snow/sleet. Last night we got about 1.5" of snow, but this morning it has switched over to mostly sleet, and has not been coming down very heavy. There is more forecast, but it is hard to see at this point. It looks like most of the moisture is sliding just south of St. Louis. We appear to be on the northern edge of the precipitation sheild. I'm hoping that it moves just a little bit back to the north!

In your last post, you said St. Louis hasn't had any snow before this. Well, we have had some, but not more than an inch at a time! Although the airport received 2" back in November, most of the city did not see that snow.

Just want to let you know that I still enjoy reading your posts even though I am in St. Louis now!

David

-------------------

David,

St. Louis may be on the northern edge of a major snowstorm. Let us know how much you get tonight. Thank you for participating in our weather blog.  This is likely your storm of the winter.  I hope Kansas City can get one before its over.  The active part of the pattern is just around the corner so we'll see.

Gary

Well luther, im sorry that we all cant be as perfect as you. Some of us may like KC's weather for they way it always leaves us thinking that theres another chance for something big to happen, even if it takes months and a few change of seasons. At least thats why i like it!

and Holmes534, im still waiting on my snow day too lol.

Oh, and there was never a forecast for 6-10" here! The most I ever saw from anyone was 3-6".

That band of snow is just moving ever so slowly.  Would it not be till this evening that it would get here? (if it does)
becky

With the way people were driving this morning you would think we had either a foot of snow on the ground or a 1/4 inch of ice covering everything.

I can't wait until we have a huge snowstorm like we had back in '93 but I dread having to drive in it with people who are clueless.

A more steady snow is falling in Blue Springs right now

"You would think that somewhere in the algorythm's that determine the model forecasts, there would be a practical limiting factor.  Like the chance of us seeing 2"+ of QPF on February 8."

There is a limiting factor--the human forecaster. That's why you can't just take a model output and call it a forecast. A human has to look at it.

So this heavier band that is possibly going to be here between 3-6 pm, is that going to hit the entire KC Metro area?  And do you expect it to cause many travel/road condition problems?  

I know that here even the slightest bit of precip causes havoc on the roads a lot of times, but just curious on your thoughts with this one.  I dont mind if it snows, I just want to get home (from downtown to near Liberty) safely : )

----------------

We have to wait and see if it materializes.  It seems to be developing slowly to our northwest and west right now, and the light snow is enhancing over the metro area now as well.

Gary

Gary, just need to know if my son might be able to use his snowboard up here in Leavenworth from the snow today, or think it might not be enough.  He keeps asking me, thought i would get a expert opinion.  Thanks

Good Morning Gary and team!

It is lightly snowing here in SE Lee's Summit and has been since I got out to take my 2nd grader to school this morning.  

Hope everyone has safe travels today!

-----------

Thanks for checking in. The snow is continuing its gradual increase around Kansas City. 

Gary

Has started snow in Leavenworth

I don't know how much snow you need to snowboard but...I doubt it. Probably need to go to Snow Creek and board on some man-made snow...

Such an odd set up.  If I am reading things right, we are getting skiffs of PVA, in a decent spot with the jet streak which is giving just enough lift for this light snow.

It isn't taking much..but what little there is to bring this snow is pretty efficient.  It is amazing how the storm orientation makes such a big difference.

Last time through this storm, we were left wanting more as it really went more to our southeast.  Lest we forget, remember the storm that brought snowflakes to TX and Lousiana last month?  

It is not common for that to happen.  One might argue so not common one might make note if it happened twice not too far apart.

In Dallas, they recieved a trace of snow on December 9th as result of a deep trough bringing freezing temperatures into the heart of TX.  

Today, Dallas - January 27th.  Ice storm and winter storm warnings over the Dallas/Ft.Worth WFO.  Ice and light snow expected.

From the DFW WFO AFD - "A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SEEP SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS
MORNING... THEN FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES
SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING AND SLEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. "

December 9th / January 27th = 49 days.  ~50 days per the LRC.  

Blowing snow and moderate rate of snow comming down here at 4500 Main. Cold cold cold. Let's keep our hope up for one good snow this year. Seems like the real good ones are in late Feb and March. By the way anyone have a pool table lamp they would like to get rid of?

well its finally falling at a rate that might accumulate, still not too optimistic, but its nice to see some steady snow falling here at the fort.  we have had light flurries at best for a long time.  

It is getting pretty white here in Lee's Summit (by the 7 and Colbern). It is still snowing small flakes. The grass is white with a beige tint to it from the sleeping grass it.

Scott, I thought the repeating of this storm was to bring snow to Lousiana and Texas on Friday, right?

Rdub, thanks, i completely forgot about Snow Creek.  I myself havent gone to ski since i was a senior.  Long time ago,lol

Michael Jackson is a Man. And thats how its gonna be

Snowing decently here in Olathe near Santa Fe (135th) and I-35.  Started to pick up around 11:30 or so and steadily increased to its current rate.  Starting to accumulate on the roads again as well.

Btw. I was looking at some things. And I found out about a Kid that likes weather alot. He goes to Olathe south appearntly. He has his own weather blog.

Weathermankumke.blogspot.com

Dwxtracker said: "Oh, and there was never a forecast for 6-10" here! The most I ever saw from anyone was 3-6"."

NWS out of St Louis had a forecast yesterday (Monday) for 4-7" last night and an additional 2-3" today (Tuesday).  That's a storm total of 6-10".  Granted, the location I picked was closer to Hillsboro, where my Mom lives - which seems to be getting much more than St Louis proper is - but that's where the 6-10" comes from.  

Looks like the NWS in St Louis isn't much different than the one in KC... always over-predicting amounts on a regular basis.  Sounds to me like we should take about 50% of what the NWS says... and then cut that by 50%... LOL!!

Has started to snow pretty steadily south of Harrisonville.

Anyone know what it's doing in SE Lee's Summit (50 Hwy & Todd George)?

The good news is, I get to leave work early today.  The bad news is, it is to collect my son and go back out to his eye doctor appointment!  It sure was a mess during the morning commute ... hopefully will be better this afternoon.

That line sure looks like it is disappearing.  I am thinking we won't get anymore snow...am I correct?
becky

It's snowing in Kingsville (or just already fallen snow blowing around!) - VERY cold though.

Mom in Lexington KY is getting a lot of ice.

Laura

the NWS has been accurate for my area thus far...atleast in their short term forecasts.

MelissaLG,
I am not sure what it is doing at the 50 and Todd George. I do know that it is still snowing lightly here between Lee's Summit, Lake Latawana and Blue Springs. I just looked at the NWS page for my area code (64064) and they earlier had 20% of snow this morning and now they have 50% of snow today. I have not been out driving in the snow so I don't know how slippery it is. But with the freezing drizzle last night, it might be slippery under the snow.
audra

Anyone know how slick the roads are? Worse than this morning or not?

Light snow is still falling here....the footprints my girls and hubby left this am are almost covered up. :o)  This little event will keep me happy until the next one, if there is one. It is not a snowman building one but it is pretty. We have a lot more sleet than anything...and little pellets of snow. Have a great day, travel safe.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

chfs327 said:
Thats not Yesterdays Forecast. Its a Fantsay Storm for Later in Febuary. I was posting it because Holmes made that comment and that is for Febuary 8th. Not todays Storm

-----

So that would translate to 20"-25" of snow?  That would be a lot!  I would be happy with just 6"-8"....but 12" would be nice!

it looks like the line of snow is strengthening steadily out west.  also, radar echoes are increasing from both sides of wichita.  it seems like there may be some convergence occuring somewhere near or due south of KC down the road tonight.

Thanks, Audra.  I'm sure it's pretty similar to what you are experiencing ... we are 64063 zip code so not that far away.

A BIG THANKS to Gary and your LRC.  I had to make a decision earlier this month on the best week to drive to Arkansas. I was going the last week of January until I saw what the blog and LRC said  about weather pattern.   My trip was a rescue mission for a stray cat someone had dumped in my neighborhood. I had been feeding it and sheltering it in a cobbled together igloo on my porch.  No shelters would take it in but I had located a home with a friend in Arkansas.  I took my little stray, Charlie,  to his new home on January 12th.  Your long range LRC forecast saved me from taking a very hazardous trip this week. My friend in Arkansas says the ice storm is very bad and trees are falling all around her house.   Thank you, thank you, thank you.  And Charlie thanks you for his warm home.

Rdub - why Friday?  

Frosty - great to hear, however, LRC critics would argue it was luck or fate or something yet imagined as explanation as to why it can't happen.

Glad I could help MelissaLG.
Audra

Scott, because you posted a model map last week showing snow on Friday in Louisiana and said that it lined up with the LRC...

weatherfreak01 & WeatherFreak... you'd think we were related.  LOL

A very fine light snow has started falling in St. Joe, so at least something is coming out of the sky, last night I got my self into the mind set of "it is NOT going to snow at all" so what ever we get today is going to be a bonus for me, this just is not a very snowy LRC this year so at least we still have a decent dusting on the ground from Sunday's "event" and and we have flurries and it is in the teens.
I feel for the people down south... southern Missouri having ANOTHER ice storm? they had FOUR I think last year and they had one big one the year before that( although this one is further south but still.  As for next week I am still waiting for the models to prog. that East Pac. ridge to spike up into Alaska and for the GOA energy to dive more south than south east... but I have not seen it yet... maybe this will have a different amplitude than last time? Or are the models still really confused.

Yea!!!    for my Feb 10th prediction :)

Bring on the Spring!!!  
Scott, tell me again where the LRC predicted this weather?  Here is the Winter Forecast for this week:  
"January 24th-31st: We are expecting a drier period again across the central plains with Arctic air reloading across Alaska and Canada, likely stronger than at any other time this season.  This will be setting the stage for a huge Arctic outbreak and the initiation of the active part of the pattern for our part of the nation."  Just tryin' to keep it real.

country,
I know I am not scott but I do remember when Gary put out his winter for cast per the LRC that there would be one major ice storm but it would be to the south southeast.  That may be what was meant.  

Good job Gary and team!!  Although I would like more snow, I am very glad that the ice storm stayed away from here.
becky

Rdub - nevermind that two uncommon events hit ~50 days apart...nevermind that is a deep trough that brought cold air to the same place that doesn't see it too often.

You want to talk about an illistration of the potential using models about a week ago that can't be trusted 3 days out.  

Ok.  Can't see the forest for the trees.  I am not sure how much better of an example can be given.  That is fine.  Take it for what its worth.  Every idea or theory has critics...

Guess I will take the Lezak high road and offer the "keep watching it with us and you will see".  

Country - how much precip has fallen in the Plains?  How many storm events due this week in the Plains?

Just keepin it real.

I just talked to a friend of mine down in Montrose MO.  She said that the ground is covered down there.  She had walked to the mailbox earlier with no problems.  I also noticed that the schools were closed down there.  I am going down there this weekend.

As for here, some of the ground is covered.  I am just going to let the sun (when it comes out) melt the snow and ice off the sidewalk and driveway.. not worth messing with it.

Kristi

Scott how can you just dismiss this storm?   Again, the trend with the LRC defenders continues to be dismissive, or just outrageous in the explanation of, anything that does not fit or any LRC forecast that doesn't hit the mark.  
I'm certainly not asking for, or expecting perfection.  It's unattainable.  It's just that these instances where you say the LRC nailed something when it didn't really diminishes the credibility of the effort and greatly misleads the viewers/readers.  Gary's Winter Forecast did not mention a storm occuring during this period.  Science is all about provability and credibility.  

"You want to talk about an illistration of the potential using models about a week ago that can't be trusted 3 days out."

Scott, you were the one that posted that illustration last week. I'm merely responding to the information given from you, a proponent of the theory. If the model maps are so unreliable, then why were you posting them as evidence?

Are you really broadening the scope of LRC predictions to include any "uncommon event" that happens "~50 days" apart within a 2-state area?

When the last active pattern started, I highlighted my calender for the week 50 days out. The first date highlighted is tomorrow, so I think that means we are pretty close on the time the active pattern is scheduled to start.

Pat

Does anybody know road conditions around Independence by I-70?  My husband asked if I'd heard anything - didn't know if he needed to head back early to get safetly to Kingsville.  I watched the Weather Channel for a bit (I don't feel much like a traitor since it isn't local and I wanted KY weather!) - that ice goes from Texas clear up through West Virgiina.  Everyone is getting hit really bad.  Mom said in Lexington they're starting talking about trees and lines coming down.  They had some video and it didn't look good at all.  

Does it seem like when the "big" storms come - whether they be tornados or hurricanes or ice or whatever - are they getting worse?  I know they've always been around, and maybe it's just because internet and TV are so prevalent these days, but it seems like we hear more of the diasters than we used to.  Just curious.

Laura

"It's just that these instances where you say the LRC nailed something when it didn't really diminishes the credibility of the effort and greatly misleads the viewers/readers."

I agree. I also felt the same way about last week's prediction. "A stronger storm system will likely form near the central plains states" was then later re-defined to mean "A big trough developed east of the plains" so that the prediction could be labeled as "almost flawless".

Snowing a little more steady here in Lee's Summit, depends on where you look the ground is covered.  My windshield is finally covered after driving in this morning to work.  
Talked to a friend of mine down at the lake, her kids are out of school today and she says it is really slick down her way...but they got ice.

Pat-I think those kind of general predictions (i.e. more active/less active, or warmer/colder) are what the LRC works best for. So far I am much more skeptical of its ability to predict specific events.

I have the weather channel on too..I like it for the radar but ignore the forecasts.  I bet anyone dealing with the ice storm watching it must be tempted to put their foot through the TV whenever their segment "Why I love winter" comes on...

I have to side with country here...

This is a signature storm. This is probably the most significant winter storm within 150 miles of Kansas City this year - and there's even talk that this is the worst ice storm parts of Arkansas have seen since 2000. Gary's winter forecast, based off the LRC, totally missed it. Not only that, but it's not going to get all that cold this week either. So what? +4? That's not even close to the coldest this winter.

I believe the LRC is there, as I have seen it in action - but storm systems can creep in - and they can totally fizzle out. It's there - but it's not 100% reliable to be accurate.

I tend to agree with Country , Flood RDub.  I am not near as in depth as many of you.  I think there are patterns to the LRC that appear valid, but I think people go overboard here on how accurate it is on the cycles and especially accuracy on specific storms.  

I am not here to see perfection, I am here to learn people's thoughts.  I find this helpful.  But again, I think at times there is just a little too much kool-aid in terms of the accuracy of the LRC or "nailing" it.

This is not a slam on anyone just an observation from somebody who is interested in the weather and enjoys the different theroys and predictions.

I think that some people may be missing the point or points.  If the weather was the same then 54 days, 108 days, and 162 days from now would be identical.  We all know that is not going to be the case.  Gary has always said that it is a tool.  You can argue about the misinterpretation of that tool.  Heck sometimes I grab a standard when I need a phillips.  (Ok, it happens all the time.)  What should be discussed is how the LRC should have been interpreted or if the system just was not there at all.  And if it was misinterpreted how can that affect future forecasts?

THERES A NEW BAND SETTING UP HOPE FOR ALOT OF SNOW IN LEE'S SUMMIT CLOSE LEE'S SUMMIT R-7 I NEED A BREAK FROM HOMEWORK

BTW, Scott...In addition to December 9, and the predicted winter weather tonight, Dallas also had an ice event on January 5, 2009, about 22 days ago. So it's maybe not as uncommon as you think.

Moderate snowband / deformation band / setting up just north of the river... looks promising!

so far .25" of sow today, it looks like that fake stuff you but for decoration on your christmas tree.

>> RDub said:
>> "It's just that these instances where you say the LRC nailed something when it
>> didn't really diminishes the credibility of the effort and greatly misleads the
>> viewers/readers."

>> I agree. I also felt the same way about last week's prediction. "A stronger storm
>> system will likely form near the central plains states" was then later re-defined to
>> mean "A big trough developed east of the plains" so that the prediction could be
>> labeled as "almost flawless".

I don't think this point can be stressed enough.

I'm curious when that big upcoming artic outbreak will hit:  The forecast for this week was:  "January 24th-31st: We are expecting a drier period again across the central plains with Arctic air reloading across Alaska and Canada, likely stronger than at any other time this season.  This will be setting the stage for a huge Arctic outbreak and the initiation of the active part of the pattern for our part of the nation."

It has been cold the last few days, but that forecast appears to be getting at a reloading up north occurring now (this week) which is "setting the stage" for an upcoming "huge arctic outbreak".  Most of the mid-range doesn't show much of an arctic outbreak, but rather a slow warming trend.  

When do you propose this "huge arctic outbreak" will descend upon us?

I hope the roads are ok when i leave.  I did not think that we would have any snow at all..lol
becky

A nice little band is setting up North and building back to the SW.   Maybe we can squeeze out 1/2" like they said might happen this afternoon/evening.

Joe

Well put shoedog... although we cant ignore these new, strange radar signatures... it looks like a wonderful band of snow has developed over the northern part of the viewing area! lol but yes i agree with whoever said that the LRC should be used for just eyeing the areas where we should expect the storm(s). At least that is what we use if for now i believe, and it really has been surprisingly accurate!

*prays for that new band of snow to get stronger* lol knock on wood.

It appears that this snow band doesn't want to go south of I-70.

Hummerseeker,

I live in Independence and just drove home from OP.  I 70 is fine, clear and wasn't congested about 30 minutes ago.

Lighly snowing here now, but bigger flakes than this morning.

Gary is starting a new blog!