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I am going down south to the Rich Hill/Butler area does anyone know how much snow they got?  Thanks to anyone that can help!

Gary,

For the last month you have been saying that the "active part of the LRC" was going to be Jan.20 to Feb.15.
Now are you saying it's going to start in another week?
If that is the case,is it going to last until the end of the month?

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Actually this is not correct.  This week is the week where Arctic air was suppose to build across northern Canada and Alaska and it would begin the initiation of the active part of the pattern.  It is during the first half of February where I said the active part of the pattern would return, and it is going to happen.  We will talk about this a lot more in the coming week for sure.  But, what will it mean?  We will have much better chances for a wetter storm or two and some more wild temperature swings, but confidence is still low on a major winter storm developing. 

Gary

Well hopefully we will get a twist that works in our favor for a nice snow in february sometime.  We had a dusting in leavenworth today we had a nice snowglobe snow late this afternoon and early evening.

I agree Gary!  Absolutely ridiculous!  My mother is in Joplin and hates the winter weather, and here I am, praying for the snow that is still falling down there.  Of course I could make it easier on everyone and move down there, and the "no snow" will follow and KC will get hammered the day after I move!  Even if it was July, lol.  But then Doug would be as bored as you were today.    Nice job of forecasting, we appreciate your skills even if some of us are disappointed.  Shelly

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Thanks Shelly!  Have a great night.

Gary

The snow has really been coming down here in St. Louis for about the last 2 hours. We had sleet for most of the day, then around 6 it swtiched to snow, and became pretty heavy. We've been having about 15 minute bursts of snow for the last 2 hours, and its really starting to add up nicely. Last time I went out at 6:30 we had 2.5", but I would guess we've had at least anouther1/2" to 1" by now.
Sorry you guys didn't get much!

David

I'd like to express my prayers and thoughts of those that are without power and going through the bad ice storm down south I hope you get power asap.

Hi Gary--

I haven't written in quite a while this winter season.  I have recorded around 7.7 inches here in Berryton.  The cold has been interesting to me this year as every weather year is unique.  Our basement which is finished but not heated with vents (it is heated with built-in electric heaters which we have left off unless we are in the basement for a time) has been 10 degrees colder than last year.  I am also fascinated that it hasn't been stormy but I understand the uniqueness of this season.  I know that we could yet end up with a major storm but I sure hope it isn't ice.  Take care and I am looking forward to spring.  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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Michael,

It is nice hearing from you tonight.  Yes, we are in yet another unique weather pattern.  Hopefully for us snow lovers this next active phase of the cycle will bring us a snowstorm. We'll see. It has actually been colder than last year even with these ups and downs.

Gary

I think I will hope for spring now.
Maby that will help bring us some snow that we can do something with.
Don't get me wrong,I like seeing snow fall,but when it dosent add up to at least 2" it really does me no good.


BRING ON SPRING!!!!!!!!!   ;)

Gary,

So if I understand you right, you are saying it is COLD!!!!!!!!

Just like everything else, you got that right!!!!!

Brrrr.

What a bummer! Yes, Ridiculous! And so, are we still hoping for an active pattern? It looks dry dry dry!

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Unfortunately we have to wait another week or so.  This storm could have helped fill the gap.  But, we know what happened.

Gary

Gary,

This is truely a rare occasion in which you vent via blog about how yet another storm slams everything to our east and south. Kansas City will get it's storm one day since we seem to be dodging far too many in recent years. Nice Job on the forecast and maybe we'll get a storm that will bring us some more substantial snow within the next month or two.

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Thanks, and we do have two months left before snow season fades away.

Gary

Gary you and your team did a really good job with this crazy weather.  I really appreciate you and your station not getting overly hyped.  You keep it real, not what you think the people want to hear.  I  was hoping for snow, but maybe another day.  Now get some rest!  

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Thanks,

I will get 6 hours of sleep tonight, I hope.

Gary

Amen, Winterfan! I suppose us true winterfans should move farther north! But, not sure I would trade away all the Springtime fun here in the midwest.

119th & Ridgeview in Olathe 14 deg. with maybe .25" Gary, that was a great rant, almost as good as Jim Mora's "PLAYOFFS" tirade from years ago. Don't take it so personally man, you cannot control it if it is meant to be it will happen. As always this blog is educational as well as entertaing..... Oh by the way I would be remiss if I didn't give a shout out to all my civil servant bretheren on the night shift!

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Playoffs, did you say playoffs......Playoffs!!!  LOL

Gary

Keep up the good work Gary. I always go here first, then NWS discussion to see how they hedge, and of course LRC. Great resources not available just a couple years ago!  We weather lovers are a kindred group!

Still a few flakes falling here in St. Joe, yes this was nuts, it is like there is an "anti-snow" band that is right over the region, I know a my house Sat. night we got only a "thick" dusting and that was the biggest snow for us, it is bad enough when you miss it to the south, or to the north, but to miss it to BOTH is just depressing, thank God for last year for us, or I would be going looney!!! That said at least it did snow some and there are still shortwaves that are progged to come through with temp. swings and some wind so it is not too bad.

Great to see you vent Gary.   I think at some point during every winter we reach a breaking point and curse mother nature.     I hope just 1 storm pans out during the active cycle so you wont be really upset   :P

Joe

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Joe,

I get over things fast.  I will be ready for spring in just about two months.

Gary

I am going to win next years snowflake contest.  




Prize suggestion: 5 days vacation to Telluride, Colorado where there is real snow! 21 inches in just the past 7 days.  

Gary,

I've seen you refer to this "twist" in the storms in February, but it has never been defined.  When I called it a wild card, people protested, but it still seems as though it is just that - a card that can be played later such that the theory will fit no matter what the actual weather outcome is.  

If it isn't a wild card, can you define what you mean by "twist" at all?  Can you pin it down or even narrow it down slightly in terms of the practical differences you feel storms will have in February?

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Notes,

Here is how I can best explain this twist!  This is very important because I firmly believe that this storm is directly related to what happened on December 4th and 5th across the United States in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  And, this would place it right in the spot of around 53 days ago.  There was a positively tilted trough extending from Hudson Bay back into the western states.  This trough was even more positively tilted than this one.  The storm we just had is also very positively tilted, but the southern part of this trough is reorganizing and trying to become more negatively tilted over the next 24 hours and will help generate this eastern storm system.  The "twist" is just a different version of this trough that went through the cycle in December. 

When I made my long range forecast it was quite easy to overlook this very positively tilted trough and think that this time through the cycle we would see such an impressive major winter storm just southeast of our region. It could easily have been one of those storms that seemingly is a "wild card" as you call it.  I say, yes you are somewhat correct, and if you can somehow see the LRC then maybe you can see how this "wild card" is really just a twist.

The major ice storm in 2003 that we had was a "twist" in a winter of not much.  There were many positively tilted troughs that winter that rotated through the cycle and one of them suddenly become the three day massive wet ice storm and seemed like a "wild card".  But, I could take you through that year and show you how it fit within the cycle, just some conditions (time of the year, jet stream strength, availiability of Arctic air) came together, and boom a "twist".

Gary

Scott claimed he thought he figured out the "twist",  maybe you could ask him.

As of yesterday afternoon Brett Anthony (on weather plus) was still calling for a couple of inches so I wouldn't call this a successful forecast.

Who cares that the other stations were on early...there were school closing to the south. Sometimes I wonder if your best interest is public or your ratings.

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That's my whole point. The best interest is in the public, you the viewer.  There was no reason to be on at 4 AM period!  This is what I believed yesterday.  There was nothing at 4 AM, 5 AM, 6 AM.  No problem at all.  Really no problem all day here. And, our 1 to 2 inch forecast was the lowest in town and we are proud that it was the most accurate.  I really didn't even want to know what others forecast. I just want and strive to get it right.  Wow, on three hours sleep I am just letting loose tonight.  I hope this makes sense.

Gary

Gary, I vent right along with you!  But atleast we didn't get an icestorm.
Springdale/McLouth has has had flurries to light snow showers everyday for three days straight.  Dustings only each time that would evaporate quickly with the little moisture content.  Then today I gave up.. then snow from nowhere just boom, starting falling, dusted with 1/4 and it switched back to spitting snow, it still is as I speak, lol.  I had high hopes even though you seemed pretty sure we wouldn't get much.  I really thought it was going to come a little further north.  I have lost track of the LRC, I know the basics but I didn't know the stronger parts are ahead... I wonder if they will all be 1.5" snows? LOL.  That's the repeating storm pattern im in, out here.   Atleast I have gotten to see snowflakes for the past few days, almost all day.  Just nothing to accumulate.  What a weird year!   Atleast we dont have 100's of trees falling, that's unreal.   Take care!  Looks like you get a break in the action for the middle to end of the week!  Us snow lovers get exhausted when these types of so close events happen!  Totally exhausting.  

So.. no snow until February? :(

Also, I have a great commercial idea! It might ruin you professionally, but it will boost ratings!
..................
Chief Meteorologist... (fade) Gary Lezak.
(cut to scene) This is where you pelt another weatherman in the face with a snowball (preferably Katie Horner).
(fade in) He's accurate!
..................
Of course, I'm only joking.. for the most part.

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Katie and I went to dinner a few weeks ago and we are friends.  I usually don't like to mention names of  our competitors on the blog so let's keep it to another "weathercaster" or "another station" if you have to mention it.

Gary

Hey Gary,
We are now up to 5" in St. Louis at St. Louis University! Everyone here is really excited because this is the most snow they've seen here since last March, but I suppose that would be the case in KC too if you got 5". I sent you some pictures of the snow here.
Hope you get some snow soon!

David

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We hate you!  Just kidding, but we are jealous.

Gary

Gary,

Is there a term for when there is snow melt and the sun is out but temperatures are well below freezing. How does that happen?

Also, during the Summer I visited 6 News in Lawrence Kansas to watch Chief Meteorologist Jennifer Schack do the 6 and 10 PM Weather Cast and talked to her for a while. I went to email her the other day and she is not on the 6 News staff anymore. I was wondering if you knew her and if she went to a different station something. I was going to thank her again for letting me do my own little "weathercast" on the green screen. It was pretty fun!

Alex

sublimation lezakef5

a solid can perform a gas exchange and 'evaporate' ex: snow.  

solid ice can either melt and form into water, or sublimate and turn into O2, H+, and particulate matter.

Thanks PVT!

lezakEF5, she works for a station in the Dallas-Ft Worth area now.

http://www.unclebarky.com/dfw_files/4088266f124f35633bc04aad4064d6af-843.html

Man, the forecast looks boring.  To ME it is boring to a lot of people who hate snow they love it.  Looks like another long dry spell before any chances of snow come back around.

I love winter and snow just as much as you gary and its just depressing when we get these dustings snow event. My mom loves the 7 day forecast and i hate the the 7 day, oh well i guess its just the calm before the BIG ONE

David in LS

I think it's time for spring storms.....those are more interesting and have more noise and action.  How about a few tornados, grapefruit sized hail and 110 mph winds?

There will be people complaining about the spring storms once they come as well just like they do with snow.


I think weather events are fascinating, and that dealing with them is just a part of life.  I am just glad we dont have earthquakes here.  That and living near a volcano would worry me.

Actually Kansas we could have an earthquake around here - it hasn't happened in a long time that's all...

I couldn't have said it better myself, Gary. Just ridiculous!

Gary, I hope you are right about the active cycle!  I'm still hoping for 20" of snow for the season - I believe that would be the most since I moved here in 2004.