NBC Action Communities

Gary:

Good starry snow glistening morning to you sir!!! There is no doubt that I am a strange individual but I think it is just beautiful out this morning-clear-cold fresh air-snow crunching under foot as you run-it is very invigorating!!! I know-I know-I have some serious issues LOL!!!

One random point about this past event that I have been thinking about-not sure if it is on the right track or not and I am sure it is not the whole story but one major difference between yesterday and early December is the temperature gradients this storm had to work with. The contrast in temperatures between here and south Texas were pretty significant and combine that with the fact that we are in the period where the jet stream is at its strongest and I think one can see why this had such a different look at the surface than in early December. I also think that the depth of the cold air really helps explain where the most significant band of precipitation lined up. For us to get a good snow out of this we would have really needed a strong organized storm to kick moisture up this far North. This really reminded me of the set up of the ice storm in 2002 but this year’s LRC had the cold air so much stronger-in 2002 we were in the same place as southern Missouri-this year, the cold air was so much stronger-that is the sign post of this year’s LRC. The trough was there just as in December but now in mid January the cold air played a more significant role-the band set up over us in December but there wasn’t the strong temperature gradients to help energize it. This probably doesn’t make much sense and is probably way off base (as usual huh??!! LOL) but just something I was thinking about.

It is going to be fascinating to track the next 3-4 weeks-the models are for sure showing the energy coming in from the SW but I just wonder if maybe they are off on the amount of cold air there will be to work with. I still think it would be interesting if one could get archived model data and see how they handled things in December and October just for comparisons sake. Whatever the case, there will be many twists and turns on the models over the next 4-5 days-fun times for sure!!!

And ya know, we have a front to discuss for Sunday so all is not lost between now and mid next week!!!

Have a fantastic day and as always thanks for the as always excellent analysis and updates on the changing weather-you, Brett, Jeremy, and Jeff are just TIGHT!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Yes, we do have Sunday's front, and it is related to the first inch of snow on December 9th. But, that was a strange set up for snow, so I doubt it will line up the same way.

Anyway, have a great day and we will see what happens. 

Gary

Gary - do you ever get the feeling that we all put TOO much pressure on you to bring us the weather we want?  We want snow in the winter, but not when we want to travel.  Storms in the spring but not when we have to plant.  Heat in the summer, but not when we plan to be outside all day!

So ... are you Father Nature or what?  lol!!!

Laura

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Laura,

I do feel some pressure, but like many of you I just want the weather to happen.  Of course I want to get the forecast right every day too, so there is a lot of pressure there.  But, when exciting weather is happening all around us I know some of the frustration gets directed back on our weather team at times.  But, this is fine as I try to help everyone keep it in perspective. 

Gary

Gary:

Thanks for the response!! I meant to say that I hope you and the whole team get some much needed rest the next few days-all of you for sure deserve it!! It has been a crazy 48 hours for all of you!!!!

Take care-have some great invigorating workouts this week and weekend and as always, thanks so much for providing such a great place to follow and more importantly learn about the weather!!! You and the teams interaction with the bloggers is something that is really awesome or maybe better Tight!!!! The passion is just fantastic and really beyond words!!!! Thanks!!

Have a great one and it will be fun to follow the next 3-4 weeks!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

The 06z GFS did tap a bit more of the Arctic air.  We know the storm systems will be grabbing that cold air mass, it is going to be too massive.

Gary

Wakey wakey Gary, has it been a few minutes yet?  Gotta ask ya, gameday Sunday, will it be windy?  Got a lot of meat to smoke for the game.  Wind effects my smoker more than temp or precip.  Hey its really time to start getting excited now.  Season is getting close to being over for the cold and white stuff, severe weather spotter classes are forming and those that are in the St. Pattys' Day Parade are starting to get things in order.  Don't know if any of you have noticed, but this has been a terrible winter as far as agriculture goes.  It will give food processors an excuse to raise prices again.  But those of us who actually grow and raise the food won't see an increase again.

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Good luck with the agriculture interests.  Hopefully spring will be kind to you.  A cold front is going to move through Sunday morning, so there will likely be a good 20 mph wind from the northwest.  We will look more into this later today.

Gary

When is South Overland Park going to see a real snow storm?  This is the weirdest place we have ever lived!  We moved here from Utah where the snow would pile up on anything and it would be sometimes right at freezing when it happened. Not this ice when it is 15 degrees out.  My kids are going crazy!  Sorry, just needed to vent!

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Yes, I understand.  But, we could live in Dallas where it rarely snows at all.  We just happen to live in a spot that averages around 20 inches of snow per year.  It is very difficult for us to be in the right spot for snow.  My first year in Kansas City was 1992 when I moved north from Oklahoma City.  That first winter of 1992-1993 was wild and crazy and there were two 1 foot snowstorms in the Kansas City metro area that winter so it can happen.  KCI airport had only around 9 inches officially in those storm systems but there was 14 inches in Shawnee in one of them where I lived. So, it can happen, but it is not very common.  The October surprise in 1996 produced 6 to 8 inches of snow.  It just has to set up right, and it still may in the next two months, or we will have to wait for another year.

Gary

A watched pot, never boils.  What will be, will be.  God will send us snow on His timeline, not ours.  M

Gary, absolutely LOVED the rant last night!!  We are right there with you, bud.  You need to do that more often.   Kathleen

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Kathleen,

Thanks, it's time to move on and enjoy this beautiful winter day.

Gary

It really IS beautiful out - the sun is making everything glisten.  Still too cold - even for the dogs!  They usually don't mind it and will just run and play fight to warm up.  I guess it's the combination of the air and the cold feet that makes them scurry out to do their business and come back to the door -- or stick their noses out and decide they really don't need to go all that bad yet!  Our beagle has become very insistent on making nests with all our blankets - he just burrows in!  :)  Laura

Gary, In reguards to something Bill said - He thought the cold air went so far south it prevented any mositure from reaching us. Thats why the big precip was Joplin to stl. Is that true? If the cold air was not so strong and deep we would have had the storm? If its true that would be another log on the fire of frustration for this winter. Of all the ingredients that need to come together for snow I have always felt cold air was the most difficult to get here in KC in previous years (not this year of course) Now we have too much cold, is it possible? Unbelievable!

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Yes, that is one of the factors.  If you really analyze and look at this storm, we did just miss it. If it would have been ever so slightly different as it came out of the Rockies we would have been in that band.

Gary

Good morning weather team!!! It is soooo beautiful down here with the snow and sunshine!! Not looking forward to the melting though....what a mess that always is, but I can deal with it :o). Great job dealing with all the disappointment yesterday...people wanted more and more did not happen, you warned us but I guess we are all dying for that 4-6 inch snowfall.  Did you get some rest Gary?? My girls stayed outside in the teen degree's sledding and snowboarding for 1 1/2 hours yesterday evening. They LOVED it!!!! Hope the exciting stretch brings some more to us and maybe alittle more wide spread. I feel bad for all those people without power.....as I sit here in my warm house. I have been there many times though, it is no fun. Have a great day and enjoy the sunshine.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

Yes I caught up, and just took a 2 hour nap on top of the 6 1/2 hours last night, unfortunately I came down with a little cold that is going around KSHB.

Gary

Gary thanks for looking at Sunday, I do appreciate it.  About last night and you letting loose, I don't think you let enough go.  I mean, some of us, myself included, kind of tend to doubt you and the LRC from time to time.  Most of us, have no meteorological education outside of here and the LRC page.  I know you understand that, you are a very passionate weather professional.  You should get excited about any weather event where the weather intensifies and changes rapidly, it gets your adrenaline flowing.  Too expect anything else from you would be cheating ourselves.  Even though I doubt the LRC from time to time, I do believe there is something to it.  I do believe that you are still fine tuning the theory and trying to understand these "wildcard" situations.  Whether one doubts the LRC or not, you and the weather team have been far more than accurate recently and the last year.  Especially when compared to the competition.  I can't recall where more media outlets from newspapers to radio stations have exclusively used a forecast or the technical expertise you and the team deliver.  Also, even more professionals who work in the weather outdoors have come to rely and trust your forecasts and expertise.  You and the weather team there have probably made a mold that other media meteorologists will be compared to for quite some time to come.  A suggestion, have you ever considered teaming up with Berkley and getting the LRC worked into the BOINK network for more computing power?  Maybe if that could be worked out the NWS might take a closer step towards the LRC.  If nothing else, maybe the weather models might get tweaked just a little.  Also, my next weather date storm for the season is 2-10 to 2-14.  Beginning to sound better all the time now.  Lets hope I don't miss what I think is our last best chance on the white stuff.

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Thanks for the supporting comments.  We are currently working on possible quantitative analysis of the LRC and this next year may be a big one for my theory.  I do understand the audience and this weather blog and the LRC weather blog are meant to enhance everyones knowledge of weather and an avenue for enjoying weather as a hobby.  When we started the blog years ago it was just a natural fit for me. I have been keeping a weather calendar since 1978 so the blog is an extension of my own weather calendar and we get to share it with everyone.

Have a fantastic day!

Gary

Gary,

You said confidence is now low on a snowstore for Kansas City in february.  Why is that?  Are you just trying to keep us snow lovers expectations low, or do you really feel that based on the fact that we keep getting missed that it just won't happen this year?

Brent

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Brent,

My confidence is low because in December when we went through the active part of the pattern it never came together. Now, if you remember we had some nice little snowfalls and I expect that to happen again.  But, will it all come together with a February "twist" like what just happened for Joplin and St. Louis?  There is a chance.

Gary

Gary,

Just wanted to pop in (at work here) and give you a thumbs up for your passionate view of the weather.  Even though I don't have the same passion and I'm not a Winter lover, I do feel a bit of sorrow for you and so many of your viewers who love the snow.  Like you said, the area we live in, simply isn't in the right location for huge snow storms.  But they do happen every few years.

The sun is shining, the sky is a beautiful blue.  That makes me happy today!

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Thanks and I am happy the sun is out today as well.  It is just a beautiful winter day.

Gary

I think we all need to think of all of those going through this horrible weather storm.  That thing is packing some power and leaving a lot of people without power.  Let us thoughts and prayers be with them...I know mine are!!!!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY BRETT

Hope its a wonderful one.

Boring... there is nothing to even talk about until "the active period" :( Kc just sucks winter weather wise, but I really am hoping for some good snowstorms with this active period.

Phillip

Gary,
   I have a couple of questions about statements that you previously made.  I do want to preface those by letting you know how much I appreciate your enthusiasm, knowledge, and of course your commitment to both the weather and this blog.  It does open yourself up for a great deal of criticism even when you are the most accurate forecast in town.
  I, as have many others have been very frustrated by our winter weather thus far. (I have had 11.0" at my house in Grandview, so I don't have the room to complain that some may have)  You have made a few statements over the past month that bred hope, only to sobered up by a different reality.
1.  "The artic air near by could present cold and stormy setups even befoer we get to the next wild 25 day stretch."
                   While it may have been cold, January was unbelievably dry and not stormy.  Not to mention the 25 day stretch.  This active part of the LRC continues to be pushed back.  Why is that?
2.  On 1/5 you had a blog about December 14 and how that would repeat between February 2-5.  As of yesterday you said the active part "may still be 10 days away".  Why is that?  You also stated that "the week before and the week after this date will be producing some rather wild weather."  Again, I don't see anything the week before.
Thank you again for all of your time on this blog.  It kind of feels like school again.  Its the challenge to learn something new everyday that brings me back.  Thanks again
Matt at work in Independence

I am concerned about the damage to shrubs, plants and periannials that may result from lack of snow cover during these cold periods.  It will be anyone's guess as to anything that might die from the dry weather.  While those in St. Joseph had the rare winter last year, it's back to par for the course with it going north and south of us again.  It figures, I moved back here in October and the weather pattern turns into blah again.

Im always depressed when the snow melts but then I feel so much happier. I don't know what to do. WE still have a big pile of snow in our year, the very middle has snow from last year still!!!! 1" deep until we started putting on snow again.

Oh and P.S. 1" of snow yesterday bring up or total to 15.7" at Johnson County Executive Airport! Hmm. . . . . . . . that dosen't seem right, oh well! preobably 14.5-15"

Just heard from my sister in Lexington - she said this is the worst ice storm they've ever had there.  Lots and lots of people without power (thankfully not her, as her family lives with my 82-year old mom and if electric went out they'd have to get her to the hospital).  Trees down everywhere - on houses, lines, cars ... a close by town had to shut down their entire water system because they can't purify it without electricity.  Reports already going out that it will be a week or more for some before electric comes back on.

So -- things could be worse than sunny and cold like it is here!  Just to put it in perspective ...

Laura

Hey Gary,
Things really came together here in St. Louis last night. For the longest time, it looked like we were going to maybe squeak out 3-4". Then, around 4pm yesterday, an area of precip began to rapidly develop northwest of Springfield and east of Nevada. All the sudden what had looked like more like freezing drizzle and sleet turned into a large area of heavy snow that lasted for most of the night. I think it caught most of the forecasters here off guard because forecast snow amounts which had dropped to the 2-4 inch range at noon suddenly skyrocketed to 6-8 inches between the 5 and 6 o'clock newscasts! I measure 6.8" here this morning, and there were several reports of 7 or 8 inches around town, with a report of 11 inches just off to the southeast! I have to say I had a hard time sleeping last night I was so excited watch the snow fall!

Well, I hope the February "twist" lands KC in the right spot for a good snow next time. In the meantime, I'll think about all you in KC while I go enjoy the snow! :P  :)

David

Got a report on conditions around Branson from my Dad. He said the ice on the cars was over two inches in places.  Main roads are clear, but they can't get back up the driveway yet.  (It's on a hill.)  They still have power and they're in a fairly rural part of the area.

My neighborhood is already mostly snow-free.  There might have been 1/4 to 1/2 inch but that's it.  The sun evaporated what was there pretty quickly.

More and More people are starting to not believe!!

http://buzz.yahoo.com/article/1:yahoo_green643:708d53038042cac076254a0d85a38b06

NOAA had hinted at a possible storm (ice?) around February 8th...what is your take on this.  I believe someone from the weather blog had posted this several days ago?

I Posted A Map showing a Fantsay Ice storm around that Time.

what is fantsay ?

You said fantasy ice storm like it was something good, I like ice as long as it dosen't put out power or stick to rodes or look me inside my house otherwise its pretty! Ice subtle danger.

By fantasy he means it is too far out in the models to even think of it being reality

I personally don't want an ice storm.  An ice storm creates a lot of problems and damage.  If you were around for the one in 2002, you would understand.

I know I have relatives in Arkansas without power but they have a place to go to with power.

Kristi

I never said I wanted an ice Storm.

I dread ice.  I pray it doesn't happen.  I would take two feet of snow or 10 days of over 100 degrees before a significant ice storm.  I am not yet sold on the model progs for that storm.  While it is feasible for the storm to exist, timing and temperatures are still in question for me.

I will try to avoid wishcasting it away, but with my disdain for ice, I may fall victim.

Relax...we won't get an ice storm. Do you want to know how I know this? Because we haven't gotten any other weather of signifcance this winter, why would it start now? =)

Amen to that kcwxguy...I will never forget the 2002 ice storm.  My family and I were housesitting for my mom in OP, and we were lucky to just lose cable.  But the constant "gunshot" sounds, and the dread of walking outside for the very real threat of a tree limb falling on top of you was nerve racking.  Not to mention hearing on the news some two weeks after the fact that many people still didn't have their power back on yet.  I love snow and exciting weather, but I hope to never see one of those set up for us (or anybody) again.  

My youngest brother and his family didn't have power for 12 days after that storm.  It finally took a call to a local TV station to get their power back on.  Aquila just never had its act together.  Due to that storm, the electric companies really had to examin their emergency procedures.  This is the second time since late 2007 that northern Arkansas has been hit with an ice storm.

I would never rule anything out...  If memory serves me well, we had not had a lot of snow that winter (2001-02) up to that point.  I know we had a snow about 10 days beforehand.  

Kristi

Heh, I got a dent in the top of my truck's bed shell during that 2002 ice storm.  If that branch had given out 30 seconds sooner, it would have been me with a dent in my skull instead!

I'll take a foot of snow over an inch of ice any day.  Where I grew up in Texas, ice storms were the normal winter weather. No thanks!

I remember oddly, I was on a different power grid than my neighbors, and I had power the entire time as well as cable, but the rest of the neighborhood was dark.  My house became the common area for friends/family to sleep/eat/bathe and keep warm.  

I remember the constant booms and crackling of transformers and limbs.  I spent a lot of time with a chainsaw cleaning up the neighbors yards.  I lost three trees out of that storm.  I think I was one of the lucky ones...

I will pass on another ice storm, and if I never see one again, that is fine.  While I love the Winter, if I don't get the big snow storm, that is ok as well.  Funny how as one gets older with more responsibility how shoveling the driveway outweighs the fun/excitement of a day off from school.

I guess I love wild weather, but just not in my backyard...if I want to see it up front and personal, I don't mind traveling to get a taste and leave it behind.