NBC Action Communities

Great blog Gary!!  Did you get to teach anything or was it more of a learning seminar?  I agree that a lot of it is in the "hands of individuals" - sometimes, a gut feeling can save a life, regardless of what forecasters say.  I've always believed that weather IS so "iffy" that sometimes what you see and what's actually happening in a given area can be different - and that weather (well, precipitation) can vary greatly even within a couple of miles.  I kind of like the idea of temperature range actually!  Then no one can complain!  :)

Thanks again for your hard work and that of the rest of the weather team!

Laura

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Laura,

Jeff Penner went to all three days and brought back this material.  Pretty interesting stuff.

Gary

One year a birdy landed in a torando siren just as it was about to be tested. Poor birdy!!!!

I guess I understand the desire for the temperature spread. However, isn't this just going to make SOME(certainly not you guys!) forecasters lazy? After all, they could say, "we were close" if they forecasted 73-77 and it hit 80 or 70. Sure would make your "3 degree warrantee" pretty useless! Let's stick to the current system.

Thanks, Jeff, for sharing the info from the weather seminar.

I vote with Blusky on forecasting temperatures to continue as is.  The change is what would confuse people.  It seems to me that people who don't know the difference between watches and warnings just haven't been listening.

Flake Fan,  I agree, poor birdy.  I had the misfortune last year of being right by our Post Office when their tornado siren went off during a test.  It was brutal to my ears!  I stood with my hands pressed hard over my ears for the three minutes, but it seemed much, much longer than that!  Thanks for bringing this to mind as we are fast approaching the tornado season when I'll need to be alert to my whereabouts at testing time.  Edna

Gary,

This reminds me of one of my beefs with the weather community, which I hope now that its being brought up is going to start to be addressed. Communication is often times something which lacks during big event situations like severe weather and major winter storms.

For example, Notice some national weather service offices will issue a snow advisory or freezing rain advisory, while the county to the east which is covered by another weather service office will just use a winter storm warning. This inconsistency HAS to confuse the public!

Another example could be on how some counties only blow the sirens if a tornado is on the ground, and others will blow them just for severe thunderstorms. I know the outdoor warning systems are run by the counties, but in my opinion we should atleast get a similar guideline on which to blow them in a particular region or state.

Atleast one of my biggest beefs of many years ago seems to be an issue of the past in terms of local broadcasters. It used to be not that long ago, if you had a storm producing a tornado over a more rural county with not a huge population, nobody would do continuous coverage on it, the only continuous coverage would be if a storm was threatening the immediete metro area that television station is in, and the others would (at best) get a brief cut in..

Jonathan Behle

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JB,

So you are very in favor of the continuous coverage we do when there is a tornado warning anywhere within the viewing area?

Thanks for your input.

Gary

Hey Gary,
I am a huge believer in public safety being in the hands of each individual. I tire of some people who blame others for being completely oblivious to what is going on around them. It should be enough to say the POSSIBILITY exists for severe weather during a certain time frame, which is why I think the current watch system the SPC (NWS for winter storms-the changes this year in that regard elliminates more confusion IMO) employs is excellent. I'll never understand why there is outrage if a POSSIBLE severe weather event doesn't manifest itself. I think part of that is due to the point you made regarding nearly half the population can't differentiate between a watch and a warning.

If I'm not mistaken, several counties in the metro (if not all over) will blow the sirens for severe bow/wind events stemming from that May 2 storm last year in the Northland. That is a good idea, because those storms can cause similar damage. I am not opposed to sounding sirens for large hail, as in general only the most powerful storms will produce such. I consider the sirens a "last ditch effort" to warn the population anyhow.

I've always liked the temperature range idea, especially in large cities. The first time I remember seeing that on tv was with Tom Skilling in Chicago. The KC Metro is large enough to warrant a range, just look at the differences most days in temperatures at KCI and Downtown and even to KOJC.

That is a staggering stat that 81% trusts their favorite local met. That puts a great deal of weight on your shoulders, but it is something I know you take seriously and do a great job of. I think it's a great idea to have these seminars to help gain understanding between all these facets. I will be curious to see what the ultimate results will be.  Great blog!

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Thank you for your comments today.  And, I agree with the temperature range. This is why I often say when looking at the 65 for Saturday that it could be somewhere in the 60s on Saturday.

Gary

So would it be safe to say that February 5-20 will be more active? I have also heard you talk about the February twist. What would that mean? Storms are stronger or do they move through different areas?

On the topic of forecast precipitation I wish there was a way to show the percent change it WILL rain/snow. Then also have another percentage of how much of the day it will precipitate. That way some one could have a better idea of about how long it is going to rain. In the spring it seems there is a lot of forecast days with 100% rain. However, it rains late in the evening for only a couple of hours. Maybe this could be shown as....... 75% rain and 6/24 6 hours out of twenty four. Would this make it to difficult to understand?

Thanks.

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That would be way too many numbers I think. But, a good idea none the less.  And, concerning the February "twist", we don't know what it will be yet. Will the storm systems be stronger or weaker.  Will they go farther north or farther south.  It will be directly related to the weather pattern we experienced in December so we'll see very soon as you are right about that February 5th through 20th time frame.

Gary

Guess they didn't ask me about wind direction. :) Wind direction along with speed is very important to farmers and ranchers raising crops and livestock.

Example: If it is going to be wet, with low temps and only have natural shelter that is facing east, but the wind will be coming from the NE and the wind will be strong then you should feed livestock more hay to help generate more heat so you don't have weight loss.

In the summer I use wind speed and direction to determine if I should leave or close barn doors.

A few days I put in my request for a warm weekend day and Voila! Saturday is looking great. I love it!!

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Let's get it to happen first!  But, it looks great on Saturday right now.

Gary

Wind direction & speed is also useful to lots of others--as well as farmers that were mentioned above.  Hunters, boaters, pilots, constructions workers and almost anyone who works outside everyday.   Also important to folks who are in the weather forecasting busines.  

Re temp ranges versus a single temperature forecast, it should be possible to do both.  A forecaster could say "temps in the region will be between x and y, but the forecaster could also forecast a singular high temp number at a particular location, such as KCI, for their warranty.

Gary, do you know if the EM's have to sound the tornado sirens on a county-wide basis or can they sound them more on a city to city basis- for example, in the past I've heard our sirens go off here in Jackson county, and by looking at the radar and watching your newscasts, I knew the storm was North and East of me and headed away, thus I wasn't too worried.  Yet my neighbors were all freaking out because the sirens were going off and thought they needed to be in the basement.  Sometimes it just seems they sound the sirens for the entire county whether or not the entire county is actually in danger.  Dea

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Each office has a slightly different criteria, that's all I know.

Gary

Social scientists?  Oh joy.  I also am in favor of the continuos coverage.  We live clear out here in McLouth, but even if the storm is clear over in Oak Grove MO I feel having that coverage is important.  Storms that effect KC start out west here and flow towards KC.  I remember a few years ago it started up here almost out of no where.  I called a tv station and talked to a meteorologist there and they didn't believe me because it didn't look like much on radar and NWS just issued a warning for our county.  By the time it got to KC it was a thousand times worse.  Warnings everywhere and oh my gosh on tv they were saying "this is bad, we had no warnging".  Gee, if they would have listened and taken me seriously they could have gone live and giving all the city people a 45 minute to 1 hour warning it was coming.  No, going live and continuous is a good thing.  If somebody misses their favorite tv show they will get over it.  No regular programmed tv show is more important than public safety.

"This is just simply not possible, unless the LRC actually exists right?"  I would just recommend posting and comparing maps of what actually happened instead of putting a forecast map of 240 hours out and saying your theory exists because a model run (or even several forecast model runs) matched.  Why not put a map of what happened Dec. 1st and a map of what happened 50, 51, 52, 53 days later?  They should match, right?  Then do Dec. 2nd, then the 3rd, etc.  Every day should be able to be shown that it "repeats".

Not a fair comparison to use a forecast to prove your theory-it's what actually happened that will prove your LRC.

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I 100% agree! Absolutely.  It will be interesting to see how it actually sets up in the next 10 days, but as Jeff Penner says quite often to me "just the fact that the GFS is now showing a similar pattern and right on schedule is alone amazing".  So, we will wait and see, but obviously I am confident that the pattern is cycling and that the December 14th to 28th wild part of the pattern is returning as forecast.  But, your point is something I say all of the time.  It still is worth talking about and showing, but when it actually happens is when it really counts.

Gary

The GFS has a system coming through Feb 7th - 9th.  Sounds like it is right on time for the 54 day cycle. Could this be our winter storm KC has been waiting for?

I don't like the way they blow the sirens in Overland Park for a tornado warning for far northwest Johnson County, when the storm has no chance of approaching O.P. I can think of two or three times when this has happened in the last few year, and I think it makes people pay less attention to the sirens...so that when a tornado really is approaching O.P., people won't react.

One thing I would like to add (and this really irritates me) is when people rely solely on outdoor warning sirens as their only method of warning. Some of those people you see on TV who say "we had no warning" refused to take cover because they didn't hear the sirens. NOAA weather radios were invented for a reason, and they only cost $30-40. Sirens are ONLY meant to warn people outdoors. Those won't help you if your inside a heavily insulated building!

Don't bet on it nicknak.

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I wouldn't bet on a major winter storm here, but I would bet on it snowing a few times in February!

Gary

This topic has great meaning to me, having been the local media warning the public and now working with EM again, warning the public.  It is a staggering statistic on the percentage of whom watches TV for their warnings.  It reminded me back to March of 2006 during that severe outbreak.  I (we) were not off the air much that night, and that was because I am a firm believer of keeping the viewers informed throughout the whole night.  One viewer, on another message board, said they couldn't stand me but they appreciated my information.  Take it for what it's worth, I say.
So now, I'm with EM, and bringing the meteorological background to this is a unique experience.  I am talking directly with the spotters and NWS and not being disrupted with a break-in.  I'm monitoring the radar with GRLevel3 and able to spot rotation early on.  The benefit is that we can get the sirens going early enough to hopefully get people aware.  I still communicate with the past TV station and the cross-information is great.  We tell them what we see and they reciprocate.  

Hey Nicknack I dont know where to find all the models everyone talks about could you post a link with the GFS for the 7th - 9th it would be greatly appreciated

RDub, and northlander38, I agree with both of you.  That's why I bought a weather radio and have encouraged my neighbors to do so- as well as watch Gary and Team's weather-casts.  My neighbors think I'm nuts for going out and looking at the sky when the sirens go off.  I try and tell them that if we were in imminent danger, you can bet I'd be in the basement.  Dea

Do more Severe Weather Coverage!! I would if it was 24/7!! I watch it all the time, of course while tracking it with my State of the Art radar system: GrLevel3 and StormLab Pro! LOL

pmccabe58,
I use Wunderground a lot for radar and forcasting models.  The website for where I got it was
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US

I put sticky notes down on a calendar when we have precip. and then try to figure out when we could have our next system come through and put sticky notes down on those days.  My way of looking at the LRC.  

Living here in Linn CO we are in the middle of 2 major news networks....one to our south and then you all to our north. In the past neither did a good job of covering us...however NBC ActionNews for the last 3 years or so has done a great job of giving us coverage during weather events. It is a good thing cause in the past if you did not have a scanner then you were out of luck cause we did not have a tower that gave our county coverage for weather radios. If we programmed in a county to our south and north then it would go off for them but we needed a tower for us.....well last I knew Parker, KS got one and this is the first severe weather season that we can actually have weather radios that will work for us....our county. So I would say TV coverage is great but a weather radio is the best...especially if you are rural. If bad weather is effecting both a highly populated area and rural at the same time most TV stations will cover the highly poplulated area more often...and I do understand that. So I do thank you all at NBC Action News for our coverage down here.....in the past we were over looked by everyone and had no one to rely on. I can tell ya when I am out eating in local places around here....it is on NBC Action News nearly 100% of the time. You do have loyal customers down here in the sticks. LOLOL!!!! :o)
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

I hear what you are saying.  I grew up in a small town and it was on the fringe of 2 viewing areas.  There was only 1 or 2 stations that cared enough to watch out for us during severe weather.

Jeremy

So Gary you now think there wont be a major winter storm here?.... You seem to change your mind everyday I dont get it

Btw thanks nick

Well well Gary, next Monday is one of your favorite days.  Its the day the little furry creature tries to be a weatherman.  Will you see your shadow?  Will you get your 6 more weeks of winter to better your chance at that big snow?  You can only hope.  I bet regardless of any shadows that day, winter will last 6 more weeks.  What else is that day?  Its half way between winter solstice and spring equinox.  Spring equinox, that sounds great, my big day.  Feb. 2 is also Candlemas Day, some weather wisdom for that day, When the wind's in the east on Candlemas Day, there it will stick till the second of May.

We'll see.  Better get your rest.  If this winter is any indication of wild weather swings, better look out for spring.  I bet what the sub-tropical jet couldn't give us in the way of moisture all winter we will finally see this spring before it cuts off in June again.  Then return in the fall before the big change of the next LRC.

Oh and to be fair to Doug down south....he may cover us more now and I do not know it.  For all I know maybe he is not suppose to since he is so far south of us. Since our switch to satellite 3 years ago I have not been able to watch him anymore. Just wanted Doug to know that...I am not trying to trash him!! :o) I use to watch that station all the time when I lived in Pittsburg, KS (PSU) during my college years. Go Gorilla's!!!!!
Monica
Pleasanton

Kane1970,
I'm not going to bet on a storm however we are due for some precip.  So I will say light rain Fri-Sat. turning to snow Sun-Mon.  3+ inches of snow.  Nothing to go crazy about but something to shovel.

Be thankful that most of you HAVE sirens.  Those of us in rural areas have NO sirens whatsoever.  At night it's really bad when you can't even see the sky.  That's why we so much appreciate it when 41 is on the air continuously with bad storms in the area.  The live radar helps immensely - you can always tell the general direction it's taking.  Many times we've scooted to the basement when it looks like it's going to hit - whether it be tornado warnings or really severe thunderstorms.  I do think that weather like that should always preempt television shows.

Laura

Old Crow, Yukon is at it again:  http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?yk-11&unit=i

-50F right now!  Where is all this cold air heading?  Could this be the fuel for the active part of our weather pattern?

Gary,
 
 I think the LRC is very apparent this year, easy too.  Its just a messed up weather setup and a repeating one at that!   I think most in denial are ones wanting the big snows, which I do to, but the LRC has actually calmed me down in situatons where I have heard of big snows coming, because the same smaller storms keep repeating on schedule for us.  The LRC gives you a big edge on what to expect.  
Even though a twist could be thrown in at anytime.  We need a twist huh?  
You are the best, you and the rest of the team.  I just want weather to happen, so maybe we get a twist as spring approaches.  Like stronger storm systems and atleast get one negatively tilted!  Have a good day!  

MCIRamp - I agree. At some point people need to take responsibility for their own safety.

Ok, I'll be honest.  A year ago, I had never heard of the LRC.  Since I've been following this blog and since the LRC website launched, I've learned alot.  I'm confident that Gary's forecast, basing it on the LRC is going to be accurate.

As far as the siren system, I gotta be honest.  I am fascinated by thunderstorms, and when a siren sounds, I don't take cover, I'm the first "idiot" to stick my head out the door and look at the sky.

Continuous coverage is the right call, it's very helpful to know if there are storms in the area and which direction they're heading.

Why have you previously said that the December 14 storm repeat February 2-5 and now you refer to stormy weather still 10 days out?  And nothing between the 2-5?.Also you had previously mentioned 25 days of active weather now we are talking two weeks?

When does this LRC get something really happening. I have read about the cycles, and everything all winter long, and now the make it or break it for snow seems to be February. From the looks of the extended that forecast may as well be March. Atmoshpere movement might be there, but we are not even getting the December precip. We are doomed this summer with this trend.

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Just be patient.  We have the next three weeks to go through that will bring us some significant precipitation.  There should be one or two wet storms in there for us, but for it to be snow it will take a combination of factors to come together.  At least it will not be dry like in January.

Gary

Nick are you talking about this sunday and monday or next when you say 3 inches?

Nick are you talking about this sunday and monday or next when you say 3 inches?

That must have been a great seminar to showcase, describe, and promote the LRC to industry contacts.  What was the feedback from people there on it?

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This seminar/conference wasn't an open forum to discuss all weather aspects.  There was a set agenda, so no LRC presentations this time around.

Jeremy

During a severe outbreak I watch 2 channels, KSHB is one, the other I won't name out of respect to KSHB. Both are great with coverage, and I won't change that view. KC has some very talented forecasters.

Ok... now for the longest HippyGoth post ever (I don't think I can ever beat BillinLawrence though :) )....

Sirens... Must be done when necessary, I really don't think 5 minutes of pea sized hail cuts it to set off a siren. The metro and surrounding counties need to come to an agreement on what is siren worthy.

Regionality... If a Tornado is going E across southern JoCo, with 0 chance to go N or NE there's no reason to set off sirens across all of JoCo or even WyCo. Anyone who see's how rough it is, will probably turn on TV to get a better idea. However, it's a public saftey issue, so both views are equally valid.

TV... Makes great sense to have coverage, when we were in one warning my daughter absolutely freaked out (she was 6), I turned on the TV and I believe it was Gary showing the storm track. I was able to show this to her, show her where we were on the map and calm her down. TV covers a wide area, if I miss 20 laps of a Nascar race, big deal, it just means a bunch more people are now more aware of the situation. In my view, broadcasters in this case are obliged just because of the radius they cover. It also means we get extra doses of whatever fave weather team you may choose.

H.

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H,

Thanks for the thoughts.  Severe weather is a challenge from many aspects, but it is nice to know that there are those that value our commitment when these type of events occur.  Sometimes we only hear from the people upset about missing a favorite show.

Jeremy

pmccabe58,
Next week.  It looks like we will have the precipitation there but we might not have the cold air.  So 3 inches of snow or just a boring .3+ inches of rain.

Looking at the Denver 9 news site, they are as frustrated as I am about lack of snow storms in the Denver Metro as well. Although they have the advantage to drive 30 minutes west of town and measure it in feet. I guess until I get moved there someday I will have to learn to live with this issue. We need at least one Winter Storm Watch/Warning this season, or this will be a first that it did not occur?

nicknac
I only meant about a big storm even though you didn't say big I just took it that way.   We are way over due. Very dry. It seems like I have been waiting for ever for this part of the LRC to come back around.

If KCI ends January with 0.05 inches of melted precip total, as seems likely, where does that rank among the driest Januarys on record?

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It would tie for the second driest on record!

Jeremy

February is such a wierd month for precip as well, almost feels like a cold/warm weather battle. Obviously the longer we go without the big one, the less chance we're gonna get the big one... I know it can snow all the way into March, but I'm sure we have a better chance of the big one earlier in Feb than in March. :)

Gary was mentioning the "twist" (and I'm sure there is always a twist between cycles as it changes to the next cycle), and the way Winter has disappointed so far, I'm thinking early but chilly start to spring with more rain than snow. I bet some locations will be lucky to push 10" snow this year.

Reading thru the blogs, the LRC was showing the cycles, and pretty well defined in my view, just the other pesky parts that needed to arrive to give us that extra boost for big snowfall never arrived. Not done yet, but I'm not holding my breath either...

H.

It can snow in april here in kc . However our best chance for something decent sized is this upcomming active part in feb. Our all time largest snowfall came in march so after this feb. active part then we can look ahead to march. The problem this year and the way the lrc set up is the active part will come back at the end of march into april. Theres always a chance but its really getting late by the time the march active part comes back around.

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I agree.  Maybe we could sneak out some snow in late March.  But the first half of Feb. is what we need to hope produces some snow.

Jeremy

Dea,
I agree with you about going outside and looking at the sky.  I do that quite frequently...as does my dad and husband.  
I don't know about the sounding of the sirens...I live in Lee's Summit and work here as well for the school district.  I am out at Summit Pointe, which is at the corner or Horridge Road and 150 HWY, I have had the sirens go off here before and when I have called my husband who was home watching NBC Action News, they were not going off at the house, which is in the vicinity of 291 HWY and Independence (kinda by Fazoli's).
I, too, am for all the coverage possible during these "severe outbreaks" espically when something is on the ground or it is iminant that it will/could be on the ground.  My hubby I know gets annoyed with the coverage sometimes b/c it is "not us" in danger, but I always remind him, yes, but someone is...even if it is out in the farmlands or it may even look like no houses anywhere, there is always someone in danger.  
Though, I do trust you guys to calm my nerves when it is bad weather out.  Before I started watching NBC and watched "others" when I lived with my parents I would freak out....I would stay awake during the entire tornado watch just so I could be sure we were safe...but now I know I can trust you guys and if it is bad, I can watch you and it really calms my nerves and I know I can trust you when you say yes there is a warning, but it will probably expire or won't last long b/c all the factors it needs to produce the storms are going away...I know then I can go to bed and be OK.  
Great job to you all!

This might be a stupid question, but for some reason this last weather event got me thinking... when you do a forecast for a few days ahead and say, for examples, a 30% chance of this, or a 70% chance of that, how do you come up with your percentages?  

Just curious...and might I add, I LOVE days like this...not having to worry about what driving conditions will be like : )

There's a siren less than half a block away.  We can definitely hear the siren.  When there is a warning for our part of the county, the siren cycles.  It is not a constant sound.  It will sound for a few minutes and then go off and then cycle again.  We get the siren when there is a tornado in and near the area.  If the tornado is spotted near downtown, our siren will not activate but it is down south near Grandview, it will activate.  The tornado siren does not go off when a bow echo comes thru  

One time I had to contact city hall because the siren was malfunctioning.  The city came out and fixed it that afternoon...  in the middle of a storm. :)  It was in August 2007 when we had active warnings in the area.

Kristi

Probably a silly question, but, concerning the dry (BORING!!) 7 day forcast, how confident are you at this point that it will indeed be dry the next week?....I guess, is there ANY hope of it changing? That 7 day is hard to look at for winter lovers like me!!  Kathleen

I have a siren that is in my backyard.  Holy cow that thing is loud!!  I know for sure we will be awake if one comes through in the middle of the night!! lol
becky

Do you see any snow flurries tonight. Is that a weak disturbance?

Our closest siren is about a mile and a half away from us. I don't know if it is because of how the ground is layed out or what, but I would say about 85-90% we don't hear it (that included when it is being tested). Also at night with my husbands CPAP machine running (it forces air into his lungs) it is almost impossiable to hear the weather radio and it is just across the hall in the kids bathroom. I leave our bedroom door open when we have weather so I can hear it, but rarely does it wake me up. My cell phone sending me text messages wakes me up, then I hear the weather radio going off. Keep in mind that I am a light sleeper, especially when there is weather.
My neighbor next door does not even have a weather radio. He does not watch the weather at all. More than once I have called him to tell him that we were under a tornado watch or warning and he was unaware of what was going on weather wise.
As to stations doing continous coverage during severe weather.. I have mixed feelings.. Some stations make it sound like the end of the world is coming. You also can hear the same info only so many times before you start to tune it out, which is never good. But I guess it is better to be forewarned thus forearmed when it comes to weather.
Audra

Oh, for those of you who don't get weather text messages sent to your phone.. Personally I would recommend it. Some places charge a nominal fee per month some are free. If you have unlimited text messages (like any parent of teenagers should have, saves you a fortune!) then it does not cost you to recieve the messages. When I was back East at the end of May last year, I was able to call home and keep my family safe because I was recieving text messages letting me know that a tornado was heading towards Lee's Summit. I also have a fear of being at the movies, or the grocery store, etc. while a warning is issued and missing it because I was not at home with the computer, radio, etc.
Audra

In my opinion, breaking in for weather emergencies and keeping the public informed is a great idea and I think it needs to continue.  Saftey is more important than a TV show.

As for the sirens...I just think everyone needs to be on the same page as to when they are to be set off and then inform the public.
becky

Our forecast area covers a lot of territory.  I have close friends who live in Montrose MO in SW Henry County.  I would want to know if a tornadic storm is headed their way.  Or if I was down there, I would want to know what is coming.  There's a way to balance the coverage out.  And it doesn't have to be hyped.  That's what I love about the KSHB weather team...  No hype!

Kristi

Audra,

Where can you sign up for the text alerts? We live out in the boonies, 7 miles from the nearest town and never hear the sirens. We do have a weather radio, but it gets on the hubby's nerve's, so he has a tendency to shut it off.

Thanks,
Pat

Monica (Pleasanton)
I am hurt, I really am, lol.  I understand totally.  I do cover you to an extent.  You are on our fringe, but I do try to talk about your area.  I have some regular viewers from there that I talk to.  Don't worry your not being harsh.  I know I have a weather station there that I get currents from one of your schools.  But hey, if I could pick Gary up I would watch him to, lol.
Have a great one.
Doug Heady
Joplin/Pittsburg
Oh, sorry you didn't get as much snow as we got.

Im friends on facebook with The City of Lawrence! The biggest snowstorm I could forsee this winter is4-6" of snow and most being 2-5".

The "big" ice storm here in my part of N Tx produced less than .10" of melted precipitation in the form of freezing rain and sleet, but because the temps were in the 20s for many hours as it lightly precipitated it was more than enough to cause major problems on untreated roads.  So we will end January with just over half an inch of precipitation total, and all of it fell as freezing rain or sleet on Jan. 5 or Jan. 27.  That has to be an unusual occurrence for this area.  Looking forward to watching Gary, Jeremy and Brett on NBC 41 for a week starting Saturday night!  Too bad I won't get to enjoy the really mild day in KC on Saturday, although of course I'll enjoy mild weather all day during the drive back.  I will be curious to see what damage this ice storm did around Muskogee and Pryor, Oklahoma as I drive back to KC Saturday.

40% of the general public do not know the difference between a watch and a warning.
81% of the public trusts their local and favorite weathercaster.

I completely agree with that!

There is confusion on what percentages mean.  23% surveyed believe percentage means x% of weathercasters think it will precipitate on that day"

yup thats what I have noticed also.

now on I different note, I am very dissapointed in the 7 day forecast...wheres the arctic air? wheres the active cycle? and where is the snow????

very dissapointing winter

Doug Heady........snow I did not get a lot of but I did get more than I have all winter, :o). I drove to Fort Scott yesterday and there were alot of vehicles off the road, in the median and road signs down that people hit. They had hardly any snow but must of recieved a little icy event, nothing on tree's though. Weird how that line of snow vs ice was soooo close to me. Glad you have some cable TV supporters down here for ya, since I do not have cable I can not watch you or coverage oh SEK sports!! Anywho..hope you all are not without power down in Joplin. Sounds like the people around TN and all might be without power for weeks, that totally stinks! Take care.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Weather Channel Founder Blasts Gore Over Global Warming Campaign

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/01/29/weather-channel-founder-blasts-gore-global-warming-campaign/

Out here in Jefferson County and other rural areas of Kansas, not all, we have reverse 911.  The Emergency Preparedness office sends out a massive call to every landline in the area effected.  People with cell phones can call and hacve their phone added.  The system works great , all of our phone lines up here are buried, so we don't have to worry about wind, lightening or tornadoes ripping them down.  Also, all of the schools have the same system.  So if a weather event occurs during the school year 2 hours before or after school, or on days when their is a school sporting event, we all get calls.

Best thing though, regardles of where you live, is a weather radio that carries SAME alerts.  For forty bucks, you can't beat those life savers.  The kind that run on A/C are ok, but in a storm, there rarely is electriicity.  If you going to get one that runs on A/C, it should have battery back-up.  We have 1 central unit, and then 3 portable handhelds.  Our GMRS radios also receive weather and SAME alerts.  

Cell phones are great.  Just understand those towers are giant lightening rods and very tall targets for tornadoes.

reafamily,
Contact me off list and I will give you the info. My email is audragoyette@netscape.net. Please put something weather related in the subject line so I know that it is ok to open. I tend to throw away emails that I don't know the person sending them unless the person lets me know via the subject line that it is something I want to open. Thanks
Audra

Mom called today - they didn't lose their electric (yet - nothing's melting!) but said over 350,000 in KY still without power.  I'm waiting on my nieces and nephews to email me pictures and if I get any I'll post.

Laura

Oops it is Kentucky that lost all the power....I was thinking TN. Feel bad for all those people. Ughhh!!!

We can all dream!  Here's one for snow lovers..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_sl8_336l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_348l.gif

18Z GFS for 336 and 348 hours out respectively.  First map is 850mb Second is 1000-500mb.

Probably a bit early to hold our collective breath!

Matt

Matt. Its the same storm I have been preaching for a Couple of days.

I believe continuous on-air coverage during specific severe weather events would be very beneficial.  Often, people will see the scrolling messages across the bottom of their screens, become desensitized to it,  and not notice when a watch has been upgraded to a warning, or a new county has been added.  Programming doesn't necessarily have to be interrupted, but when there is at least a constant radar animation shown on the screen somewhere, people can see not only what counties are affected, but what PART of the counties are affected.  Having lived through tornadoes in Oklahoma, and typhoons in Okinawa, Japan, I think I'd still have to say that the past few months here has been some of the most interesting weather I've ever seen.  LOVE it!  Keep up the awesome work---on air and in your research!

chfs327..

Sorry pal..  Not trying to steal your thunder!!  I was really just kidding, being as though the models have about as good an idea as my chocolate lab does in regard to what the weather is going to to 2 weeks out!  if it comes, it's all yours though..

Matt

I believe if there is a tornado warning in the viewing are you should be on the air also if there are straight line winds of hurricane force the sirens should go off that can break windows and cause damage.

Spooky - wow.  You are back.  As far as posting past maps, that seems the most logical.  However, there is a catch.

Gary did that quite a bit a few years ago, and took mounting criticism that he never projected ahead using the LRC.  There were countless post event comparisons done in the blog.

So, the team started projecting ahead, and...now we are full circle.  I presume many that critique the LRC have some basic ability to read 500mb charts.  It takes nothing to do the analysis oneself.  I would caution it is not just one map to one map, rather the movement of the patterns over time and the regime changes.  In movement, it is much more apparent where the variability of time and season take shape...without movement, much of the variability context is lost.

I understand many do not know where to find past 500mb charts, so we ease that challenge on lrcweather.com in our Maps/Graphics menu.  We provide just what you are asking for.

Past or future comparisons are examples.  We are underway with not just statistical quantitative analysis, but working on a mathematical model.  It will take some time, but we are gaining traction.  For many, it will require that to begin listening.  

Until then, this team, LRC Weather, and others such as Doug Heady will continue to use this theory as an advantage.  

I have a question for the bloggers...for those that do their own long range forecasting, how many use teleconnection trends in their analysis?  

I can never log onto lrcweather.com!!!!! X-I

"Now the really good news: The increase in our atmospheric carbon dioxide during the 20th and early 21st
centuries has produced no deleterious effects upon Earth’s weather and climate. There is absolutely no
correlation between the increase in CO2 and average worldwide or US temperatures. And, predictions of
harmful climatic effects due to future increases in hydrocarbon use and resulting increases in minor greenhouse
gases such as CO2 do not conform to current experimental knowledge or have any scientific basis. On the
other hand, increased carbon dioxide has markedly increased plant growth. Forest growth and farm crop output pe
acre have grown proportionally with increased atmospheric CO2 that is a key to photosynthesis in plants."

From http://media.***.com/documents/Comments+on+Global+Warming02.pdf   Page 7

I agree 100%

-------------

Andrew,

These are not the facts!  You have to look at the other side and 90% of scientists on are on the other side.

Gary

119th & Ridgeview in Olathe, clear and calm, 30 deg. That 7-day, for this time of year... I'll take it every time man. In case anybody's wondering, 14 days until pitchers and catchers report! Peace, out.

This warmer weather has got me thinking about going to a few T-Bones Ball Games. Mmmm... I can taste the warm hot dogs with a frosty beverage doing the YMCA and other fun games. Ahh... only a few more months to wait.

http://media.***.com/documents/Comments+on+Global+Warming02.pdf

Andrew, your arguments may be more compelling if you bring your own analysis and not just quote others.  That said, probably GW discussions are better suited elsewhere...