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Saturday will be perfect for outdoor work around the house!  I know this won't last long, though......mid-February is supposed to be a bit on the wet side- as in snow?

Andrew

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Have a great weekend and let's enjoy this beautiful day heading our way.

Gary

 

    Im not sure If i believe in global warming as much now, if you look at a chart, this is going up exactly the same rate as all the other warming peroids.  I would wait 50 years to see if it goes up higher than most because we can't just flick a switch and earth goes back to normal, if we went back to "pre industrial revolution" amounts of Co2 we'd still take 30 years to fix it back to normal wich could mean the spike last longer instead of one big up down. I hope I didn't bore anybody. ;-)

Tomorrow Tomorrow I'll love ya Tomorrow. Your only a day away.

Well today doesn't look that bad.
Gary is that pink stuff on radar reaching the ground. I know it won't be much.

A quick reminder to all the plant lovers out there.  On Saturday.  HOOK UP YOUR HOSES AND GO WATER.  Take advantage of the warmth.  It has been such a dry month that many plants will need a good drink.  Especially -

* Any plants planted within the last two years.
* Broadleaf evergreens.
* Spruces
* Azaleas and Rhododendrons

Easiest and most effective way to give them a drink is with a hose on trickle.  Cold soil will not absorb water fast so put it on a pencil thin stream and let it trickle out.  Up to 1 or 2 hours for trees and 30 minutes for shrubs.  Throughly wet the soil all the way down to the roots  

Any questions feel free to leave a comment here or on my website and I will be glad to answer it.

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Jeff,

Thanks for the tips. I will be out there on Saturday.

Gary

The good thing about a dry January is: you can't fall too far behind no matter how dry it is. The average precip is only about an inch, so you can't fall more than an inch behind. Plus evaporation is minimal and there is no transpiration.

That said, I probably will water the tree I planted last fall.

Baconator

Scott (from last blog):

"There were countless post event comparisons done in the blog."  Really?  Countless?  Go back and count them (actual map comparisons of events AFTER they happened).  There's lots of talk, but few maps.  Again-key word AFTER.

"I presume many that critique the LRC have some basic ability to read 500mb charts."  Ouch.  "It takes nothing to do the analysis oneself."  Ouch again.  That's where you lose people like me (few will post anything on this blog for fear of ridicule, which you seem to pride yourself on).  Read the stats again from the last blog on how most people get their weather.  Most people don't analyze 500mb charts to get their weather forecast, but your comments make it sound like they should or could?

"For many, it will require that to begin listening."  Ouch again.  Listening is a 2-way street.  Just because you say there's a little guy who turns off the light in the refrigerator, doesn't mean he exists because I can't prove otherwise.  I hope your mathematical model works.  I hope Gary's theory can be proven.  But don't expect "regular folk" to do the research for you.

I don't remember referencing you in the first place.  If for some reason you think I was calling you out, I apologize.

"It takes nothing to do the analysis oneself."

I've said it before, I'll say it again: the burden of proof is on the proponents of the theory. You are making the extraordinary claims, and thus you must provide the extraordinary evidence.

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Yes, and this is what the next year is all about.  We are preparing to provide the extraordinary evidence.  Let's see where we are a year from now.

In the mean time....let's enjoy Saturday's weather!  Have a great weekend.

Gary

Good luck to Brett and everyone else tomorrow!!!! Hey Jeff with landscaping....I have a question, when is sod normally ready?? We have an area of grass that is ruined...I think due to grubs. We are gonna rake it all up and lay the feed to kill it but in it's place we want to lay sod down cause it is a highly traveled part of our yard and it would be a mud fest if we waited for grass to grow. It is an area in our yard that does hold water well so putting down sod during the Spring would help keep it nice and moist. Your thoughts if you know??
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Every one smile! ☺

If the volcano in Alaska blows its top, does the LRC get blown off course, and WE GET SNOW IN KANSAS CITY!!!!!!!!!

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We will need something major to happen to get a difference maker here.

Gary

I am so looking forward to going outside tomorrow in a t-shirt and jeans, without a coat! I think the dog will get a long walk tomorrow.

Evidence: http://icecap.us/index.php

I'll have to scan my paper I wrote last semester having some facts that GW is a natural cycle. If Al Gore wants war, I will give it to him!

If the active part of the cycle is still more than a week away.  Does that make this years cycle closer to 56-58 oppose to 50-52 days?  When does the December 14 storm appear?
Matt

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Matt,

No, not really.  The active part of the cycle may have already started, but the exciting part for us is still a week away or so.  It is just that the producing part of the weather pattern for our part of the nation is really only about a 15 day stretch that begins in 7 to 10 days and it could be fun and exciting for us weather enthusiasts. Looking back at the entire pattern this year's LRC is just not a good one for our local area and region in general.  There is a mean trough from the Great Lakes south into just east of the Mississippi River Valley, and then the secondary trough in the other main phase of this years pattern creates the environment for northern plains and Great Lakes storm systems, which places our region in this 15 day stretch that has the wild part of the pattern that will produce the precipitation we need.  So, the Great Lakes are in the right spot almost all of the time and if you happen to live there you love this years LRC.  But, around here the frustrations are rather consistent if you love stormy weather.  We may still see it all come together in the next two to three weeks, but it could be like December with wild temperature swings and a few minor storm systems for us.

And, I think that it could have been picked out and predicted better in my winter forecast back in November.  It was there to be seen.  The temperature anamolies that we forecast have verified quite well with the cold winter off to our northeast.  But, the precipitation forecast should have been more oriented from the northern plains southeast through the Great Lakes states taking into account what I described above.

Now, what will this pattern mean for the spring?  This is something we will be working on soon.  It may perform similarly, but there also will be some affects of the jet stream relaxing.

Gary

Hey -- how long does Brett have to stay in the water?  He commented this morning he'd be in there for the whole five seconds - is that just what he has to do?  Or is it enough that he jumps in PERIOD?  He's a brave man!  Hope they have some heated blankets and hot chocolate ready for all the polar bears!

Laura

Gary we might be in gor a treat pretty soon.  Mt Redoubt is about to blow its top up in Anchorage.  It is historically a giant ash producer.  So we might be getting some pretty good looking sunrises and sunsets pretty soon.  Great forecast for tomorrow.  I am going to start smoking meat tomorrow afternoon for the big game.  I think our former rivals from the east side of Missouri are in for a disappointing day come Sunday evening.

I'm definitely looking forward to a nice Saturday. Last weekend was the worst of all possible worlds: cold, cloudy, but no snow.

I remember a few years ago our car and a bunch of other people's I talked to had some sort of a reddish ash-like stuff on them.  Not pollen, although that was our first thought.  Then someone said it was volcano ash from somewhere!!  Think that will happen again?

Laura

HummerSeeker said:
I remember a few years ago our car and a bunch of other people's I talked to had some sort of a reddish ash-like stuff on them.  Not pollen, although that was our first thought.  Then someone said it was volcano ash from somewhere!!  Think that will happen again?

Laura

I think that was the red dirt brought up from OK in thunderstorms you are thinking of.  

You know I dont believe the HYPE behind global warming, and I dont like the alarmists and people making money off it.

However, think about it like this: Say you have a fish tank, and if you dont clean that fish tank sooner or later green algae is going to form inside of it.  The more algae gets in the worse off the environment of the tank.  If you picture the algae like the pollution then you can kind of get where I am getting at.

KansasPatriot....you just described my fish tank, :o) I would pay someone to come and clean the dang thing. Hah! It is pretty bad...but the fish are still alive.

For those who are interested in storm spotting, I just posted my unofficial KC storm spotting manual.

Gary,
Do you have any idea what effect the drastic temperature changes in the cycle will have on severe weather for the spring?

The scientists at AVO who are monitoring Redoubt Volcano in Alaska give the greatest probability to there being a moderate size eruption soon, although there is no certainty an eruption will occur at all at this time.  If we assume there is only a small to moderate size eruption, it will not impact the climate to any extent.  However, if there happens to be a tremendous eruption on the scale of Novarupta (Katmai) in Alaska in 1912, then there would probably be some global cooling, although the cooling would not make a difference this winter but rather this summer and next winter.

Here's a link to a short pub the USGS put out concerning the likelihood of another Novarupta-scale eruption in southern Alaska:

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs075-98/

Bottom line:  It is not likely over a short time frame, but it is probably inevitable in the long term, given the nature of the volcanic activity in Alaska.

Here's a link to a webcam near Redoubt Volcano.  It appears there is steam issuing from the top of the mountain.  It's a beautiful sunrise in Alaska.

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/avo/webcam/redoubt.jpg

One caveat on the Redoubt webcam.  I don't know the frequency at which the picture refreshes.

Does anyone think that the GFS will become reliable again anytime soon?  The only reason I ask is because it seems that when the GFS shows that we are going to get alot of snow...we get like...nothing.  I have noticed that it has done this more than once lately.  I know that looking at it now for storms is too far out to even think of anything being right, I am just curious.
becky

N2mountains if yellowstone erupts then we would get lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots colder for even summer and more nsow. That would reset the LRC even maybe
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MAMAOF3GIRLS -

Sod is typically available late march- Early April.  A combination of when the soil stops freezing and when the ground is dry enough to cut.  It can be tough to get those times to line up in the Spring.  

No need to put any grub killer down in the Spring.  Grubs will FAR down in the soil.  Wait until June and then apply a good high quality grub preventor if you like.

Gary and Team.

I do not know if this has been brought up before.  Has there been a lot less frost this year than in past years.  I have not had to scrape my windows near as much this year.  Also the school you went to today (Fox Hill) has two of my kids and my kindergartner just went on and on about the puppies.  If you have pictures could you post them or send them to me.  Thank you.

Kurt

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I will try to post a picture tonight.  And, this month certainly has had a lack of frost.  It has been dry, but December had many frosty mornings. They will be coming back.

Gary

It's friday, the weekend looks awesome weatherwise and we've got the super-bowl on Sunday. Wash the car, walk the dog, play with the kids... everybody enjoy! Brett, good luck tommorow man, that water may be a little chilly. 13 days and counting, peace, out.

Gary, I wanted to tell you congratulations on being cancer FREE for ten years.  I enjoy watching your weather cast and 41 news is the only news I watch.  You have great enthusiasm and professionalism when you report the weather.  You're whole weather team puts alot of effort in forecasting and the blogs.  My children love seeing the pictures of Stormy and Breezy.  I am ready for winter to be over.  I like one huge snowstorm and that is it for me.  I am tired of the dusting to 1 inch of snow.  I love the smell of the air before a spring thunderstorm and flowers.  Maybe soon I'll get my big snowstorm, then spring will come. Have a nice weekend.
Heather

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Heather,

Thank you so much.  Winter has some legs left.  And, I am not 10 years cancer free yet. I will be taking my 10 year test sometime this year and then I will have a huge party!

Gary