NBC Action Communities

Hope it stays quiet!

5 dollar footlong.

any footlong

sorry, couldn't help it.

Ok so for today, as the storms build in the afternoon hours, they will not gain momentum and be violent until they reach central MO?  I'm looking and hearing all kinds of conflicting info.  But please correct me if I'm wrong.

Brian   ***** Brian, I wouldn't call it conflicting, some see moderate risk for K-C automatically assume armageddon.  There is a chance of severe weather, yes but I would say better chance in closer to Lake of the Ozarks and over toward STL.

NOooooo not as far north as Paola....I vote Paola gets dry slotted...ok?  Puhhleease!!!
--deb

NBC team,
Okay so when you say storms and action SOUTHEAST OF THE METRO how far south and east? I am in Warrensburg and kinda freakin out here. :-(  ****** Hi, That sometimes needs to be clearified so thanks for asking, in this instance by farther south and east I really mean south of Lake of the Ozarks and east over toward St. Louis for the worst of the severe weather, though in Warrensburg you may get a very strong thunderstorm with the main threat being gusty winds and large hail.  Brett 

Just had a quick shower with big rain drops come thru and picked up .04 in the rain gauge in Kingsville. The lightning and thunder is a nice show this morning!

Jeremy. Update your Moderate risk Map. It shows Johnson County KS is in it on the EAX weather page.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax

Warrensburg has a higher risk of severe weather than KC proper. No need to freak out at all, really, but you are in the portion of the viewing area that is more likely to see severe thunderstorms.

Looks like something might be popping up north of Hutch.

there is no reason to "freak out"  if you all have been living in this area for a few years, you should be used to this by now. I have been reading post from bloggers who I am imagining are just pacing around back and fourth worrying about thunderstorms!  I can tell you as a chaser of over 10 years, it's hard to find a good storm that is worth talking about, the chance of the same storm finding your home,... well it's very rare.  You just have to stay informed and educated.  

yes warrensburg is in the target area, as well as other cities and communities that span through three states.  i don't think there is anything to "worry" about this early in the game.  If anything, you might want to look at your afternoon and evening plans, kids baseball games  and stuff like that.  But I don't think you need to stew and worry about a spring thuunderstorm, that may or may not be severe.  It's too early to tell.

Kumke,

They do not just copy NOAA they interpret the data themselves.

John

I can deal with rain and hail and I can even handle moderate straight line winds, its the tornadoes I have a very hard time dealing with. I feel slightly better that everything I am reading is saying possibly "isolated" tornadoes but still they are saying tornadoes. :-(

NBC team,
Okay so when you say storms and action SOUTHEAST OF THE METRO how far south and east? I am in Warrensburg and kinda freakin out here. :-(  ****** Hi, That sometimes needs to be clearified so thanks for asking, in this instance by farther south and east I really mean south of Lake of the Ozarks and east over toward St. Louis for the worst of the severe weather, though in Warrensburg you may get a very strong thunderstorm with the main threat being gusty winds and large hail.  Brett
************ Thank you Brett!!!! :-) I appreciate you responding back!!******

Tornado threat is very low for the metro. Based on SPC %s, it's about 9 times more likely the area would see severe hail vs seeing even 1 tornado.

I'm afraid we're going to have some large hail likely as our main threat. Just to the east seems to have teh higher risk of tornadoes. Yes, that does include Warrensburg, Marshall, Chillicothe, and Sedalia, but the risk isn't that much higher. the chances of getting his are still pretty low. Even though we have a Moderate risk, our tornado risk corresponds with a slight risk. The only reason for our current risk level is the VERY large hail.

Amos

 
wthrworrywart,

With this weather setup tornadoes are possible but the risk is low and the likelihood of any tornado forming to be a very strong one also low.

Keep in mind that statistics are on your side even if Tornados do form.

John

No matter what ya say here persons are gonna worry, freak and pace. It's their choice to react and let fear take over and there's nothing we can do to stop it. We can say not to worry and like Brett said, some people hear severe and think armageddon. I'm sorry persons gets scared but we aren't gonna cure that. And whoever said something earlier, my comment was directed to KcWxguy but I mistyped. So JP I wasn't attacking. I have noticed he's not always correct in his predictions, and even though his reply was long, he admitted he's still learning like we are. He's just furhter along than alot of us.

There will be at least one tornado today somewhere close to the metro. Just a feeling

Brett,

Everyone looks so well behaved!  Do you have special powers that Gary does not?  All the kids in his pictures are always screaming and going crazy!  I wish we could have had a meteorologist visit our class when I was in school.  Ahh, memories.

Tim

Kumke et all. -  Do not take a polygon drawn by the SPC that covers many thousands of square miles as an absolute boundary to risk.  

Per the SPC - "Also the Convective Outlook is not a small-scale, short-term forecast, but one that covers the entire U.S. for periods up to 24 hours. There is a large amount of uncertainty in forecasting severe weather on these scales"

Whether you are just in or just out does not change the risk.  Also, do not overweigh the value of "slight" vs "moderate".  Parkersburg EF-5 and Moore F5 were in "slight" risk "Day One" days.

The convectives are guides or areas of concern, but smaller scale such as county risk is better handled by the NWS covering that CWA or media that has that county in its DMA.

;-)

brian1234 - your calming statement about risk is ruining my pacing back and forth in a panic...LOL

"It's their choice to react and let fear take over and there's nothing we can do to stop it. "  Whirlygirl

It used to irritate me to constantly read the, "We're all going to die!!!" comments.   I let loose and just give a chuckle that people live in fear over every single thunderstorm.  I agree with Whirly, that's just the way some folks are wired.

So, things are looking good for me out west.  I'd like to order a 1/2 inch of rain and a couple claps of thunder to entertain the boy.  Let Missouri deal with the tornado threat and hail.

/totally just jinxed myself.  

BRETT!!!! I just gotta tell you, I love ya! Im not a crazy stalker or anything like that but i swear it was like you were talking to me on the tv right now, lol! Thank you for calming my nerves a bit and recognizing us out here in Warrensburg!!!!

BRETT!!!! I just gotta tell you, I love ya! Im not a crazy stalker or anything like that but i swear it was like you were talking to me on the tv right now, lol! Thank you for calming my nerves a bit and recognizing us out here in Warrensburg!!!!
~Jamie

Such a contrast from yesterday. Yesterday was about perfect for me. Today? Well, I love the sunshine, but the HUMIDITY!

So I guess driving from St. Louis to KC this afternoon is probably a bad idea.

Whirlygirl - "he admitted he's still learning like we are. "  If you find a meteorologist or a weather enthusiest that states they have it all figured out..let me know.  From someone with a casual interest in weather to a top atmospheric science..everyone is still learning about our atmosphere and its output.

As far as the mod risk today, I would expect that is more hail/wind centric especially if it bows out as expected.  Certainly tornadoes are possible as they are with nearly any supercell, but think with the fantastic lapse rates and deep instability, hail/wind would be the dominant concern once they line up.

Notice the RUC places the convection of concern within the mod risk...  http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_oper/.//+sa5_ppt+am+09

This is the main show and storm mode.  Anything prior to that will still be developing and likely not mature until south of the metro.  Not to say we don't have to keep aware, but the models have been pretty consistent with the higher risk more to the south and east.  

Luthur and  Whirlygirl,

We do need to be sensitive to those that are afraid of sever weather - and actually a little healthy fear of mother nature is a good thing.

People do not choose to be afraid - information is the best way to deal with those fears and that is why some people come here.

So there is a risk for later today but the risk is low.

John

It is so funny. When we first moved to the midwest I freaked out when we went under our first tornado watch. Now, just the SLIGHT chance we MIGHT go under a watch has me being annoyed that I need to go downstairs and mop the basement to sweeten it's scent. (the dogs spend a lot of time down there and miss the piddle pad sometimes.) It is all cement so it is no big deal, just another chore. I am so blaise when I hear the T word. Don't get me wrong, I still worry about the chances (thus the weather radio and text messages sent to my phone), but through out the almost 4 years we have been here 99.99% of the time nothing happens when the T word is mentioned.
So long story short, don't freak out. Like everyone says, just be aware of what is going on around you. Your house has been there for how many years and nothing has happened to it tornado wise.. (for me it is over 20 years)

kcwxguy.. sorry man...I'll do better.  I'm still sitting here wondering how far I should go today.

I just got my bracket mount for my lcd display installed for my onboard video camera, and packing the bags. radio freq are a check, radar, ect.  I feel like I'm going to war or something, all I'm missing is some theme music!!!

Weatherfreak01~ you sound a lot like how I am now except I have not gotten any better in 3yrs since the first day I was here, lol. it is sad i know. There are not many things I am scared of but tornadoes definitely makes the top 3 on my list.  

brian1234 - I hear ya...packing is a pain sometimes...but is a sign of going out chasing..which is not a bad thing.  I love chasing.  Once the cells line up, I wouldn't think there is much to chase unless you want pics of some nice possible shelf clouds, want to be more of a spotter for hail/wind, or like to burn gas.  

I think if you are seeking discrete cells, you are probably going to be chasing closer to home today.

Are you registered on SN?

Pilot -  That's what Whirly and I were saying.  They can't help it, that's how they are wired.  I'm more worried about suffocating in the humidity on my afternoon jog than I am about the as of yet to be formed storms, but that's just me.  Some people love the humidity.

First time on the blog, was wondering in everyones opinion if South Jackson County/North Cass county will get hit today with some rain?  Have baseball this afternoon at 3pm and was curious.  Great blog, keep it up.

Luthur,

Who on their right mind loves humidity?? (I am joking folks).

I am with you I hate humidity and right now at my location the humidity is at 72% yikes

John

kcwxguy,

i did sn while back, but that was several years ago.  Never went back and got reregistered, it's more of a hobby now and i love the thrill of the chase.

I was in the field last may?  i think, for the tornado on the ground neer bonner springs, i got there right as she touched down, which was only on the ground for a minute or so, by the time,  i got out and turned on my camera, she went back up, it i had only been there 2 minutes prior, then the NBC chopper few about 100 feet over my head.

On sat, you can see two clear outflow boundaries.  One is what Jeremy pointed out and the other is further south from Chunute through Columbia.  You can also see the upper level disturbance in southern Missouri/Northern Arkansas.

Looking at the RUC, you can see the low level moisture really pushing northward into S. Minnesota ahead of the frontal boundary.

The frontal boundary is now from about DDC up through Manhattan up to East Central Iowa.  The obs are showing southern winds for us gusting to 25-30 kts.  We have light to moderate cap and it is building as the 700mb temps rise over 10C for the metro area.  

Looks still about 20z ish where the cap begins to erode to our NW just ahead of the frontal boundary.

I will take the photos, Scott!  Two of my favorite things... weather and photography. :)

Remember this..  Every one of us here has some interest in weather..  Some can predict, some can analyze, some can track, some chase.  I, for one, enjoy Scott's analysis.  He is not always right.  Who is perfect at forecasting?  No one!  

Please do not put people down for having fears.  I am sure that some of you telling people that their fears are unfounded have probably had fears in your time.  Share your past fears and how you conquered them.  It might help the to overcome their fear of bad weather.  Fears are real.

Let's put the shields down and get back to discussing the weather.  Who wants to read a bunch of bickering?  I don't.  And if you don't like what I have to say or anyone else, just ignore that person or my comments.  If you don't agree with something, you don't have to be nasty or call people names.  I do not enjoy being attacked or seeing people I have respect for being attacked.

I am only saying something because I care and really have enjoyed the blog.  I have made a lot of friends off the blog.

Stay safe today and tonight, everyone!

Kristi

Mother Nature waits for no camera.  LOL

wthrworrywart,
Yea, I sound all casual and not concerned about tornados. But wait until there is one anywhere close to me. Then I am a totally different person! A year ago I was in Maryland and the husband was home with the kids (ages 13 and 19). I got a text message at night saying that we were under a tornado warning. I really freaked out then. I was not there to protect the family. I found out that the husband had let the youngest go to Sonic with her big sister and her boyfriend during all this. Let me tell you I was not a happy camper! As the eldest was driving home the siren closest to us was going off as she drove past it. Luckily nothing happened, any concern fell apart before it got to my area, but I was not a happy mommy.

So I am blaise about chances of tornados until one is near me. Then I am a different person. But don't worry until there is one heading towards you. Just watch the news and the blog. They are really good about letting people know exactly what is going on.

Already 78 in Lee's Summit.

Hey guys - Can anyone look at the threat for really severe down in SE KS/SW MO? I've checked the SPC, this blog, NOAA, several weather chasers blogs, our local KOAM, you name it. Most everyone is expecting something on the eastern side of MO.

My sister works as a school secretary. The police came in and told them to be ready for severe weather today. And that there are spotters in the area. We had 95 mph straight line on Friday so people are jumpy except me. Am I missing something? The Nat'l Weather Service had a weather briefing at 11 which I couldn't find until too late. Anything going on down here that you see?

I'd ask Doug Heady our local expert but he's off because his wife had a baby. Any help would be appreciated.

Kcwxyguy....I'm trying to learn...what does 20z mean...I'm assuming it is a time but is this 1:00 PM, 2:00 PM...ect?

Thanks
Jeff

yes that's true kcwxguy,

well cross your fingers for me, i'm hitting the field, gotta grab some lunch first.

kcwxguy,

ok i just looked at some stuff and about 30 minutes ago,  I thought i knew where i was driving, a little northeast of warrensburg,  now after looking,  i'm not sure.  what do you think?

I'm interested to see what the 12:30 SPC update will be....

Pete

duhh, I forgot about that thanks strom hammer,.. just getting excited over here is all.  I was going to chase one way not I'm thinking another.  glad you posted!

Kristi great to see ya bloggin' again. I never took you as the type to let folks dictate what is important to you? Do you need Coach Mike to come over and pump you up?
C'mon rain!!   Bring it!

brian1234 - if I were going out, I would be heading to the outflow boundary from around Chanute to Columbia along the theta e ridge...it is already picking up some cumulus and I think once the line forms and heads into that boundary, you might find some spinners.  Beware of the hail though...I think this could be a great hail producer.

Unleashing 5000 k/jg of CAPE with a busted cap, strong ascent/lapse rates, and a cool upper level...hmmm baby, that smells like big hail to me.

I don't "love" humidity but I am a lot more tolerant of it than many in this area, since I grew up in the deep south.

Pilot--the %RH doesn't really indicate anything about how comfortable it is. You can have 100% humidity on a morning with a dewpoint in the 50s and it will still feel nice. Dewpoint is the indicator. And with dewpoints in the mid 60s, to me it is not bad at all. Not exactly crisp, but not too bad.

Kristi so glad to see u post, will u be on here later, u always help me through and I totally appreciate it.  Kristy

I thought that first, then I thought about a little northeast of warrensburg, so I could chase fromthere,.

then i thought going to southeast kansas, and finding an intercept point ast the afternoon goes on.  this is a tricky one.

i appreicate the input, i'd love to hear any ideas you may have. maybe there is somethign i missed. again, getting a little excited like a kid on chirstmas morning, so most likley i have missed something.

still waiting on the 1230 update

Kristi, glad to see you came back.
I do think people interpret things as they choose. A patient here told me they were sending their family to put up the cars because TWC said there would be "2 inches of hail." I explained that TWC is not the best source and secondly , while it was good to take that precaution, I would not say with any certainty they would that kind of hail. The wife then told me they "chased" tornadoes. Naturally, since that is an interest of mine, I inquired about their chasing. They said they drove to a hill and watched the May 4th, 2003 tornado come into the area.

I chose not to explain the difference between chasing and what they did ONCE. But it does give an example of how people receive and interpret data. They hear slight or moderate risk and become fearful. They hear 2 inches of hail somewhere and believe it. They interpret it as they see fit, which is why I do get concerned when there are posts here they say they "feel" a tornado or something similar. Someone is going to interpret that as fact because that si what they choose to do.

Having said that, are we really responsible for how someone reacts? We are responsible for what we say and how we say it. But if someone chooses to take an opinion and draw upon it as fact believeing they need to worry themselves silly then , as Whirly stated, we cannot change that. There are many interpretations of the weather as well, and sometimes someone is spot on and sometimes not.

It ultimately falls to us as to what we listen to. I will still shake my head at those who listen to TWC and believe there will absolutely be several inches of hail. I still hope for certain types of weather even when I supsect there will be none. Thus my lack of much chasing this season .....so far.

i'm also very surprised that the spc has not issued anything, no meso disc, no watch boxes or anything.

I agree jerri,

twc, is very broad and basic, they cover the entire US, and the world actually, so while their data is fine, they just don't pinpoint local cities, and when they try to , it's very black and white.

I'm guessing that the weather team is hoping they don't have to break into any shows tonight for weather updates. With it being the week for series finales, I'm sure if they do have to break in to shows, they will probably get a lot of nasty e-mails again. I think that is a given that they have gotten used to as part of their job.

********************

Sometimes angry emails are funny.  I try to respond to all of them, I think most times the people don't expect a response.  Some will actually email back and apologize for being upset:)

Jeremy

There are some people on here who could use a serious change of scenery.  Perhaps Phoenix or Palm Springs is more their speed.  Just think if they lived in Oklahoma City, Dallas, or Wichita...

Great to see you posting again Kristi.   The board seems very civil today and we are all talking about weather and not bashing anybody.... just like the good old days.
Lets hope this does not spill over to prime time when this moves east because you know people will be lining up to complain they missed their show again.    

Keep up the great work guys....  waiting for these cells to pop is crazy... and its way too humid out for me :)

Joe

I have a very split personality when it comes to severe weather. Today, I am actually excited to see what will happen because the hubby is home and I am finding myself hoping to have some strong thunderstorms (not tornadoes, of course!). However, when he is out of town I am a nervous wreck because it is my responsibility alone to keep the kids safe. Kind of weird to have two extremely different reactions to the same thing.  

It's clouding up a bit here now (The Plaza).  Wondering if that will have an effect on development here.

If any of you watch Storm Chasters on The Discovery Channel, that maniac Reed Timmer is near St. Peters outside of St. Louis and appears to be preparing for a chase.  Looks like most chasers are headed out in that direction.  They are really lining up on SN (Spotter Network)

Pete

I actually love Palm Springs and Phoenix. I used to live there. However, one cannot chase tornadoes there and so ....I am here.

It is so hot outside this afternoon! The risk will likely go up with the temperature. I hope we can get some more clouds. That will greatly decrease our risk. It's 82 right now. Scary =(

Amos

Meso discussion about severe potential over St. Louis and eastward

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md

No thanks, I'm not moving back to Phoenix. I will happily trade a few worriesome days for actually enjoying summers here (and also for getting a spring, fall, and winter). I may be nervous about tornadoes here, but I was nervous about scorpions there and there were a lot more of them around!!  LOL

RDub,

Dewpoint relates to temperature, it is the temperature we will need to cool the air in order to reach 100% relative humidity. Dewpoint is related to relative humidity.  

John

i'm still sitting here watching radar and spc stuff, if I chase southeastern, ks, i'm not sure if it will be worth the drive, it i go more up torwards chill or columbia,. i might have a better chance,. it's probably too late to make ti to st louis... any ideas anyone?  maybe i missed something, kcxwguy, mentioned to to southeast, i still might do that, but not very confidant.

Can anyone tell me when the storms should start firing?  I am in parkville, well..I live there but have been at work and dont know if there has been an update on things cuz there is alot of time that I cannot spend on the computer at work.
thanks
becky

ok, i have made an executive decision, i'm headed down to SE KS/ SW MO,  for a chase hopfully by late afternoon.  anyone have any feedback for me before i go, i can't be online while driving!1...lol

I'm curious if anything will develop up north here or not. It was predicted to reach up to 77 today in St. Joseph. Last time I checked we were at 85. It is very warm. I wouldn't mind a good storm.

I would give just about anything to move to Phoenix or actually much further south and west, like Yuma, which has the lowest annual precipitation of any area in the nation  I will live there in 6 years....if I can wait it out that long.  I keep crunching numbers trying to figure out how to retire earlier!

Great weather right now here in Paola, sunshine, 82 and humid...I'm lovin' it!  Now if that darn rain would just stay away......:)!!!

--deb

How many of you have held off on A/C this year?  I still haven't turned it on yet.  I'm trying to hold out today for the cold front tonight.  Gonna be tight!

ok great now there is a meso about a tornado watch likely for our area :-(

OK here is something that helped me a little bit (someone asked that others post some things that helped them conquer their fear.)   I wouldn't say "conquer" but this helped a bit.  The one in 03 hit my parents' subdivision.  And everyone who went to their basement was fine.  The house across the street was completely gone but the floor was there and the little old lady and her dog, who had been in the basement, were fine.  Everyone went to their basement and was fine.  But the main thing I wanted to say was that even though that tornado was a strong one, the actual track of the damage was about three or four houses wide.  Picture a tornado going through your neighborhood, which is probably a few blocks wide.  There were things blown around up and down the street but the actual houses with roofs off, a tree in the kitchen, etc., that path was about three houses wide.  If your house was in that path, bad luck for you--but like they say, the tornado picked up and skipped some houses.  Compared to a whole street of houses, the houses that got actual damage where they had to be rebuilt was pretty narrow.  I hope that helps.   The houses on either side of the narrow track, were untouched except maybe a few things blown around here and there.  

Here's another aspect that might help:  The insurance company paid the builder in installments.  The insurance company didn't give them any trouble, and they didn't have to shell out any of their own money to bridge any gaps between insurance payments and work done by the builder.  I borrowed money just in case they would need to pay builders before insurance came along but that wasn't necessary.  

Another thing, it was over quickly.  My dad said it sounded just like a train, so much that my parents both said "I hear a train" and then my dad said "It doesn't look like it's coming this way" (It was) and then it was over pretty quickly.  It did not take their roof off, maybe because they had a hipped roof.  It hit three rooms of their upstairs and did not even touch two other rooms.

Here's the timeline if a tornado hits your house:  1)  Go to the basement.  2)  Within minutes, police and fire arrive and police block off your street so people won't be trying to stay in the neighborhood to protect valuables.  3)  FEMA arrives the next day and examines the houses to decide which are habitable and which ones the inhabitants have to vacate completely.  FEMA puts a sticker on the door to say if the house has been declared habitable.  4)  FEMA gives everyone tetanus shots and hot dogs.  5)  FEMA sets up a temporary headquarters where everyone can come and report their damages.  6)  Somewhere in there I guess you call your own insurance company too.  7)  Find a builder to get a crew to put a tarp over your roof holes, board up windows etc.   Maybe your church or friends can help you find this builder quickly because you don't want to use the fly-by-nights who show up.  Anyone know a good way to find a good tarp and board-up crew quickly?  .  8)  Church and friends come over to help pick up glass and  marvel at the strange things the tornado did such as not touch three whole rooms of the house, open the refrigerator and put a lamp in there and close the refrigerator back, one ceramic cat is gone while its twin is sitting there on the shelf like nothing happened.  9)   The freaking news shows up and tries to get the shaken-up people in whatever work clothes they could scrounge up to come on camera and say "we thought we were all gonna die."  You are allowed to refuse to talk to them!  10)  Get a reputable builder, and DO NOT get in a fight with your builder.  This will delay the time it takes to get your house built back to normal.  It took my parents 8 months but their house was not comPLETEly torn up.  11)  My parents did not suffer any financial setback or have to pay anything out from their own pocket, nor did they get a bad mark against them on insurance.  If you have one too many fires you can get a bad mark on insurance, I think, but in the case of a tornado, the insurance companies know what happened and treated my parents pretty well.  12)  Then you sort out what furniture is damaged and turn it in to the insurance company.  The insurance company gives you money and comes and gets the damaged items.  I think they sell it to thrift stores and stuff.  13)  You may have to move out while the builder puts in new carpet, paints walls, etc.  The insurance company puts you up in a motel during this.  14)  I forgot to say, do not breathe that pink fiberglass stuff if it sucks it out of your attic.  Wear a mask.

I hope that didn't scare anybody.  It was intended to show that in 8 months you can be back to normal.  My parents house was considered NEW because it was rebuilt extensively.  Its value went up (but this was before the housing bust.)  My parents got a bunch of new furniture and some of their mail sent back to them from Jamesport.  If you have nice stuff and mementos that would be bad if they got damaged.  Put mementos in a fire safe in the basement, and look on the bright side as far as maybe getting all new stuff if it hits your house, but also, just remember the track of actual houses it blows apart (in this case) was about 3 houses wide.  It can come very close and not do a thing to your house.

SE KS/SW MO sounds like a good call, but I would keep my eyes peeled on NE KS & NW MO in case those outflow boundaries start lighting up. So far I've seen no signs of initiation and I wouldn't expect anything for at least the next 1-2 hours. Tornado threat still looks to be very iffy. If and when these things pop, I'd wager they'll put down some gigantic hail! Good luck to all the chasers heading out this afternoon. Be safe.

New MD out...tornado watch to be issued shortly for the area (or close by) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0812.html

SPC just issued at 1:52 a new MD for KC area and NE for tornado watch potential.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0152 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL MO/FAR SRN IA AND WRN IL
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 131852Z - 131915Z
 
  TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL MO...FAR
  SRN IA AND WRN IL.
 
  TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SRN IA INTO NRN/CENTRAL MO
  BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
  E/SEWD THROUGH IA...NRN MO...AND ERN KS.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
  WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
  FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IA SEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL MO TO SRN IL.
 
  AT 18Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED VERY LITTLE CAP WAS LEFT NEAR
  THE COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL IA AND
  SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS BEING
  MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT GIVEN A 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING
  INTO CENTRAL MO.  WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
  RANGING FROM 2500-3000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
  INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN
  AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS.
  THESE WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGEST
  STORMS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THEY DEVELOP ALONG
  AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
  WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS INTO THE EVENING.  AREA WIND
  PROFILERS/WSR-88D VADS INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH
  SURFACE-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT...ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT.
 
  ..PETERS.. 05/13/2009
 
 

New MD for our area

Here in drexel, just like everywhere else, it is very muggy. Starting to get somewhat cloudy, but the sun is still poking out here and there. Good luck brian1234!

brian-
sometimes the roads down there can be a pain in the butt. If you have a GPS you'll be alright in terms of directions. I heard someone went down there and needed to move literally 5 miles to get a good view of the storm, but the only way to get there was to go around the lake; 5 miles turned to 45.

It still looks like a good place to chase though.

Kelly Hightower, thank you for such a comprehensive and well-written blog of things people to know regarding tornadoes (or even other storms)!  It was very thoughtful of you.

Edna

Kelly Hightower, thank you for such a comprehensive and well-written blog of things people need to know regarding tornadoes (or even other storms)!  It was very thoughtful of you.

Edna

"people need to know" correction

"How many of you have held off on A/C this year?  I still haven't turned it on yet."

Seriously? I've barely been able to turn off the heat this year. I haven't even thought about turning on the A/C. Our house is pretty shady so it has not been hot at all inside, and has even been cold on days like Sunday.

just came back from getting lunch,. from the MSD , it looks like going to southeast  ks and southwest Mo might be the wrong place. i'm regrouping a little bit, it seems that i should go to north central mo .. everyone  agree?  the clock is ticking!

R-Dub-
The upper floor of my house could break the convective cap in he##.  I have had the a/c on for 3 days at on and off again times. The trees in my yard finally have good leaf coverage on them, so I'm hoping that will help bloack some of the sun. We also have a bunch of skylights, that doesn't help.  In winter though, we don't use a whole lot of heat, so it kind of balances out I guess...

I'm envious of you folks in MO/SE KS today with the anticipated stormy weather.  This has been an anomalously quiet spring at my visiting home location in N TX.  There have been multiple baseball or greater size hail events within 30 miles of me while my location received nothing or just a sprinkle.  Then there were the multiple MCSs about 70 miles NE of my location along the Red River that have dropped incredible amounts of rain, along with high winds and up to golfball size hail, while their trailing sw edges were bringing my location at most a few hundredths of an inch of rain and not even any thunder.  Thankfully tornadoes have been very uncommon this spring all across North Texas.  So we sit at 0.16" of rain for May when normal is over 4 inches and with only a slight chance the front affecting the KC area brings us a storm late tonight or tomorrow.  Meanwhile areas along the Red River have had 15-20 inches of rain in the last 2 weeks and will probably get more late tonight and tomorrow.  Maybe there will be some storms next week in KC when I'm there...

Kelly Hightower - that was an exhaustive report!  It had some humor in it too - my favorite line was "FEMA comes and gives tetnaus shots and hot dogs!"  LOL  I've never been in a tornado, but it was interesting.  I didn't know the police got there that fast for one!  Thanks for taking the time to write it all.

Jamie -- just watch the sky, listen to the weather on TV, and have a plan and a place to go if you need to.  You don't want to wait until a tornado is bearing down on you to try to figure out where you're gonna go!  Just knowing it's there, and ready, has always helped me calm down pretty good.  Like, if they tell me to take shelter, my shelter is ready, I have water and snacks down there (guess tornados don't last THAT long! LOL) -- so all I have to do is get US and our dogs down there.  ANd if you're watching, I think you would have plenty enough time to get there.  

Laura

In addition to water and snacks, it's probably a good idea to make sure you have shoes down there, too.  Especially if a storm wakes you up in the night, it's unlikely you'll have full coverage shoes on.  Think about what you'd be climbing out of if a storm hit your house!

getting very impatient here,.. where's this front???

Brian1234, I agree with you. The MD is talking about central Ks Northern Mo, not the KC area IMO.

I had to head down to south central MO this morning.  I'm in Waynesville, just north of Fort Leonardwood.  There was a tornado warning earlier for an area just south of the base and they see things are really going  to escalate as the afternoon progresses.  Could be an interesting little trip I've made.

tornado watch to north and east till 10pm

brian1234 - you are going to have to hoof it to get in central MO in time...it has the best overall tornadic parameters.  I thought a trip south might be an easier drive and a clear focus point on the outflow lingering down there...

I wonder if the MCS in southern MO will do any robbing for eastern MO...

Looking at the enhanced sat, convection is initiating around Beatrice NE on the boundary.  It is about showtime!

Brian1234, oops, I meant central Mo and Northern Mo

Tornado watch issued NE of here.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0293.html

Pete

brian1234 - if you really want it, head to Chillicothe and stage and be ready to move east/southeast very quickly.  tor params look very good there now.  

They just issued a Tornado watch for us in Linn/Livingston County, MO. and areas north and east of here.

I am confused... the MD discussion that Chickadee posted (with link) had KC in it. Where did it go? What was the result?

looks liek i'll be heading north east then,. thanks everyone,. if i get some good photos or video i'll be sure to share them, i'll be all alone out there,...lol

Chickadee, thanks for the suggestion about shoes.  In a second I'm going to put a pair of boots by the basement door to take down on my next trip to the basement so they'll be there if I need them!

Edna  

So my question is since the watch is not for here..are we still supposed to see severe storms or did that go poof?
becky

Oh wait, nevermind. I see the tornado watch now...

Oh wait, nevermind. I see the tornado watch now...

I would say within the next hour or so, Kirksville will be having some issues..or areas nearby there...

Wow, that tornado watch is awfully far east of here...I think these means KC area will only see T'storm watch if anything...

kcwxguy,

thats exactly what i was looking at. i'll stage there, and watch develpment,  obviously i'd like to catch the trail as it develops to the southeast, but that's where i'll head, chill, and track the develpment.

thanks

2nd Tornado Watch added, Eastern Mo, Southern IL, Western IN.

Pete

Looks like something is trying to fire up west of kc.  Do you see that kcwxguy?

Chilicothe looks interesting with that 71 dewpoint in the middle of all the other stations reporting DPs in the 60s.  Maybe some pooled moisture will have an impact?

seeing little storms popping along I-35 in northern Mo...I have to say I am pleasantly surprised at SPC's restraint in not putting KC in the tornado watch.

I hate caps!
Ballcaps, bottlecaps, ALLCAPS. But especially mid-level caps!!!!!

Watching closely on radar - storm initiation along/near the front appears to be starting up near Cameron.

Pete

Rdub - they are saving up for the Severe Thunderstorm Watch later...you know..the one with pea size hail.  LOL

Scott, the way it's seemed lately, pea size hail should warrant a tornado watch...

Craig, looking at the meso-analysis at SPC, I am wondering....did the cap leave, then return, stronger? That's what it looks like to me.

rdub - lets hope they dont issue one later and that all we do get if anything is that severe thunderstorm watch with pea size hail. that would be a true blessing!
I hope this all turns out to be a big bust for everyone concerned especially those under the watches now.

I gave in--today was the first time I've turned on the A/C, couldn't take it anymore!  Funny, yesterday while I was out planting flowers I was wearing a sweat shirt.  Crazy.  So where is that cold front?  I'm such a weenie, I'm looking forward to the cool night.
Janet

Rdub - looking at the meso, seems to me the cap is eroding..as evidenced by the sat images...

New Meso to the SW

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0814.html

Pete

Its very warm and muggy here, so much that you can't sweat at all. Glad it isn't perfectly sunny or we might all suffocate or die from heat stroke! Its always a hard day when people are breaking the law and it harms you when you can't do anything about it because nobody listens. Have a great day and hope there are non destuctive tornados for Vortex2!!!

Cap may be eroding all around us, but it looks like KC still has +12 C at 700mb...

I could use some rain on my newly planted flowers, we missed out on all the activity since Friday.....it's split around us ever day!  Argh!

Rdub - true.  Keep in mind convective temperature though...  Oddly, in looking at the soundings, it suggests post frontal convection...

I think we will see storms develop from roughly emporia northeast thru the city and race east. I think the counties east of the Ks Mo state line have the best chance of severe weather before it moves east.

new blog

juba,

I am sorry but your post makes very little sense to me - what does the law (and those breaking it) has to do with the rest of your post?

Thanks for posting the picture of the 2nd graders.  They thoroughly enjoyed your presentation and we appreciated your use of experiments and lively discussion that kept them interested the entire time!