Good morning bloggers,
It is a cool June 3rd morning with temperatures in the 50s and a few light rain showers moving through. Some sunshine should break out later today bringing us some fantastic weather for this time of the year, but it certainly doesn't feel like it this morning although I think it is refreshing and nice. Let's look at the weather pattern today as we are about to go into what I think will be the wildest part of this years severe weather season just as summer is about to settle in, or will it?
The weather pattern is about to go through a major shift! Years ago I would call it a major change, but knowing the LRC we understand that this is not a change in the weather pattern, but rather just a shift back into a part of the “same” weather pattern that has been cycling since October. I will write much more about the pattern and show how it is still cycling according to the LRC in weather blog at www.LRCWeather.com later today. This major shift is going to bring us some significant rainfall, possible severe thunderstorm activity, and a rather “wild” pattern during the next two weeks. The jet stream is going to finally make a return much farther south, as we had predicted would happen during the month of June. Take a look at the 500 mb forecast valid next Tuesday evening:
Low level moisture has been lacking in most of our severe weather risks this year, but this has to change now that we are heading deeper into June. We should have rather high dewpoints finally arriving this weekend, after perhaps one last struggle to get the moisture north on Friday, and moisture should not be a limiting factor for severe thunderstorm potential once it returns by Saturday. Amazingly, however, the latest data this morning continues the struggel to get higher dewpoints in here at least through Saturday morning. This shift in the pattern and strong jetstream reaching south into the plains by next week is going to bring us the energy necessary for all kinds of interesting things to happen.
Look at the surface forecast valid 72 hours before this big huge dip in the jet stream. This map is valid Saturday evening. A major cap will be forming over the weekend and it may strongly limit thunderstorm development as conditions become quite favorable for severe weather by early next week. A cap is a warm layer at around 10,000 feet up that if strong enough will prevent thunderstorms from forming. Now, this is still days away and let's see how it all sets up.
What does this map show above? There is a triple point with a strong surface low, warm front, cold front, and dry line winding into it. For tornado chasers it is either going to be a great set-up or frustrating because of the cap that may not break. If the cap doesn't break then all of the energy available for severe thunderstorm formation will be wasted on Saturday and this is what I am expecting. The cap won't break and there may not even be one thunderstorm in the warm sector. This weather pattern has not been kind to project Vortex2 and storm chasers that flock to our part of the world in May and early June in the attempt to see natures most violent storm, the tornado.
Here is my forecast between now and the first day of summer for Kansas City:
-
We average around 2.5 inches of rain during the next two weeks. I am expecting 4 to 6 inches of rain before June 20th, possibly 10 inches in spots.
-
There will be 2 or 3 days with moderate risks of severe thunderstorms near Kansas City before June 20th, but most of the risks will likely be west of us.
-
Cold fronts will still make southward surges placing us in the cooler air again a few times but with active warm fronts trying to move back north creating the environment for very heavy rain and complexes of thunderstorms that will have severe weather risks involved
-
The active pattern should fade and the jet stream will likely retreat again before the end of the month
In summary, we are about to have the most active weather of the year, and this is why I am using the word wild. I think it will get a bit on the wild side in the coming two weeks. I don't see how we will avoid this, but it will be interesting to see how it sets up in the next 7 days. And since we believe that it is the same weather pattern I will not be shocked if the severe weather risks still have a tough time materializing. Two or three of them just have to produce something. Have a great Wednesday. We will be making some special graphics for our weathercasts on NBC Action News today at 5, 6, and 10 PM in HD, so try to watch and I will have the latest on this next weather pattern shift.
Gary
