Good morning bloggers,
Yesterday morning I showed you the risk for severe thunderstorms as put out by the SPC. And, I was quite shocked at their moderate risk area, and again today I am rather surprised at their moderate risk area given the weak front that exists. I just think it should be smaller and farther east. Here is yesterday's final storm reports with their early morning moderate risk area:
As Jeremy showed last night, and the above map updated for all of the storm reports as of 5 AM, this moderate risk was a major busted forecast by the SPC. And, today they have another huge moderate risk. We aren't in it but we are in a slight risk later today. There is a slow moving and rather weak front heading our way. And, there is a pretty good chance of thunderstorms later today. The main threat will be some hail, and some isolated areas that may receive damaging winds. There has not been one tornado in our viewing area this week, but there have been a few areas of damage done by straight line wind events (Norborne and Drexel). We will update the blog later on today as new data comes out.
From Jeremy's blog last night as he opened up the discussion on the busted SPC forecast:
This was something I noticed and wanted to pass along, so when you hear that there is a 'higher' chance of severe weather, the risk is still pretty low in any one location. Keep in mind this can work the opposite way too, I've seen areas that have no risk end up having a tornado! Severe weather is a tough beast to tame, but the challenge of forecasting is always fun!
For Friday the flow is unidirectional and the flow is fairly weak. That should limit the tornado potential, but we could still see some strong to severe storms with the main threat being heavy rain, hail, and strong winds. Here is the latest NAM forecast for late afternoon and early evening.
Another quick note. If you read the comments regularly we obviously have 1 or 2 bloggers that are causing problems. If you notice a post that should be removed or a blogger that should be removed please feel free to flag the comment and also email our webmaster Bill Smith bsmith@nbcactionnews.com He is trying to get a handle on the problem bloggers.
I am going to Portland, OR for the AMS Broadcast Conference next week. Have a good weekend and when the thunderstorms form this afternoon we will be tracking them on NBC Action News tonight. And, congratulations to Sportsradio 810 AM for being named radio station of the year. I will be on there at 8 AM this morning, and again at 3:45 PM this afternoon for a couple of weather updates and some discussion on the weather for our sporting events. Summer begins Sunday!
Gary, Jeremy, Brett, and Jeff
