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Jeremy >>> Those cells to the southwest around Hutchinson will they even have a chance to get here or have we stabilized enough here in the KC metro that they will fall apart? Thanks

WOW, what a weird little cell that was south of K.C. very interesting though... a supercellette?

http://yfrog.com/5kdscf0402pjx

Here are my pictures from this evening's Franklin County storm.  They were taken looking west from the intersection of Texas Rd & Jackson Rd.  We saw a very weak tornado touchdown in the distance.  Only lasted a couple of minutes.  My camera doesn't zoom in very strongly, but if you click on the first three pictures and look towards the ground you'll see what looks like a white cloud.  That was the very brief touchdown.  No damage and it all fell apart about 10 minutes later.

Grant 10 minutes is slightly longer for most tornados, wich usually only last for about 1-3 minutes. Sometimes 5.

Hi juba.  Let me clarify...the tornado was only down for a couple of minutes.  I was referring to the storm itself falling apart 10 minutes after I took the photos.

cool pics Gant...  thanks for posting on the blog.  storm fizzled just short of me, but I saw some horizontal rolling clouds that almost warranted a picture.  I'll take a fizzling storm over a strengthening one any day....easier on the nerves with people, property, and animals.

Grant, I don't know, but I would say those are about as dramatic as it gets.  I have not seen very many pictures that depict rotation as strong as these do.  These are definitely up there with the best.

Thanks for the pics!!! All of the pics r pretty incedible. Just goes to show how 1 little cell can pack a punch be it a weak punch but still a punch

I could see that cell on my way in to work this evening and thought it looked pretty threatening. My view did not look like that but was still obvious it was a storm. Really good pictures!!!!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Gant,
Beautiful photography! The pictures were amazing. Thank you for sharing.

Amazing photos from another interesting weather set up across our area!!!
Has anybody seen what is going on out west. The chances of this getting here are very low, but that is a very small watch box!!!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0487.html

Small watch box or not you guys in the city are missing one heck of a light show out here.  From here in MLouth it is a real display.  Our dewpoint is climbing again out here as well.  Up to 70.4 now, thats a 0.3 rise in 15 minures.

I wonder if any of that will make it to Warrensburg, i would like to see a nice light show. =0)

Really wish I didn't go into KC today, could have just drove down the road and seen that storm!

A Mean Storm Vector of 230 Degrees would put it up in NW Missouri/ NE Kansas if it stayed alive, right ?

Great pictures! Clouds very similar to those passed over my parents house once...made us ver nervous!

Hello, I missed the 10:00 newscast. Can someone let me know if we are supposed to have storms in the over night hours? If so, about what time? And should we expect severe weather?  

Thank you

Hello, I missed the 10:00 newscast. Can someone let me know if we are supposed to have storms in the over night hours? If so, about what time? And should we expect severe weather?  

Thank you

Sorry about the double post.

Well I am no weather expert but the watch that was issued out West says that pretty soon the severe threat will have decreased so that sounds to me like if things were to drift over here hours from now then there would be no chance of anything major.

Thanks Aussie.

Thank you Jeremy.

love the pictures by the way, thats what i call i "diet light" supercell.  In otherwords, its more economical.  hehe.  =0)

Wow! those pictures are great you could see the rotation in the whole storm if you saw it live just awesome! Get ready for the heat folks!!!

Glad they let the watch expire, what purpose dose a 1 county tornado watch play through 1 in the morning? It was ridiculous.

That watch was very small, but it was justified because there was a smaller than normal area that warranted the watch.

If the 1 county was the only county that had the risk, then the watch was justified, but with the small size of Kansas counties, if there was a risk, it would encompass more than one county, so was a tad ridiculous.

Ok..no one will read this...but wanted to think out loud about tomorrow.

Basically, per the SPC, NWS, and the team here, rain is unlikely tomorrow.  Jeremy gave it 20% or less of a pop up thunderstorm.

I am not sure.  Not saying it is wrong, but I see some things that both pro and con to the rain chances tomorrow.  I will start with the cons...

No surface convergence
Strong 700mb temperatures way over 10C indicating strong capping
Weak mid level lapse rates

Here are some pros to rain occuring

Low and mid level divergence
500mb PVA building into the area near 0Z
Surface low forming to our SW around 0Z
Very strong theta-e levels [low level moisture transport]
Strong heating possible with big dewpoints
Near right front quad of jet streak at 0Z

The divergence would indicate rising air up to about 700mb..perhaps the cap level.  The 500mb PVA would provide some needed lift at 500mb to aid turning over the mid level lapse rates.  Might come out near 6-7.  With the surface low forming to our SW, and with the stationary boundary to our north, we should see perhaps some secondary WAA lifting through our area.

So, with strong temps, strong moisture, and perhaps some WAA, that leads me to think again about convective temps.  At 0Z, both WRF and GFS forecast soundings have about 43-50 j/kg of CINH, which is a weakening cap.

Here is what would need to happen for rain tomorrow.  This precip moving through would need to clear out early to allow for maximum heating.  The surface low progged to form to our SW needs to happen and be what is advertised for strength.

If it does, it should throw up a trough ahead of the 0z 500mb PVA which would create a boundary for forcing.  This should come very close to the metro if not just a hair south, but well within the viewing area.

The main thing still missing is surface convergence.  Most of the wind fields tomorrow indicate SW flow and little veering with height.  We do get a bit of speed shear which is sufficient for thunderstorm updrafts at about 47 m/s.  If the surface low does not form to our SW or does not form strongly, we will not get any surface convergence.  Without that, none of the initiation will be surface based initially.  It will be all elevated missing out on a great deal of instability near the surface.

If something does form, this is the most likely scenario.  However - if there is any remnant outflows, or if that surface low can deepen more than progs and create a bit of a windshift with more backing, then we would have surface convergence, and thunderstorms would quickly blossom in those spots.  Some possibly severe with the amount of surface instability potentially available.

What I am also concerned about should convection occur is the fact that with a SW/NE oriented boundary parallel to the mean flow, training thunderstorms may be possible along the trough.

So, here is what I think in summary - 35% nothing happens.  65% thunderstorms initiate in the viewing area.

If they do, watch for any boundary/troughing nearby in the mid levels and watch for a surface low to the SW.  

More will be known after this convection passes in the morning and we can have a fresh look at surface obs in the panhandle of TX up through SW KS.

I read it Scott! Nice analysis as usual!

scott:   you list as a pro for rain 'low level divergence' but that would not support rainfall or storms.  

for storms you want the opposite; convergence at the surface / lower levels and divergence aloft.

Kcwxguy, do you have any idea how many people read your posts? I know I do. You always come off very knowledgable. Anyway, thanks for the analysis. We will see what happens today. If you are a Dad, Happy Father's day!

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY to all you Dad's out there!!

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