NBC Action Communities

Only 2/10th of an inch of light rain.  3 miles west of Leavenworth.  Rats!

****Thanks for the update, Brett

Jeremy--I have been out of town all week and have just updated myself throught the blog on what has occurred in the region since last weekend. What a week!! Heat Warnings, T-Storm and Tornado Warnings, fantastic photos and a Microburst video as the creme-de-la-creme!! Gary must have thought when he left town we were going to have a hot, boring summer week!! Great job on holding down the fort!!

.49 here in western wyco last night.

Bryan

Two nights of thunderstorms... two nights of misses in regards to precipitation in SE Jackson County.  Only got 0.06" for both nights COMBINED two miles north of Pleasant Hill.  Last night it poured on us while we were in Lee's Summit... only to get home and see the rain line stop about 1/2 mile north of our house.  Our driveway was barely wet.  Pavement wasn't even wet under the trees.  *** I feel your pain, while most of Olathe gets a half inch of rain, I got a scant .09" ***  Brett

It would appear the extreme heat will return for Friday and Saturday. At least, this is how the NWS feels. Brett, I hope your forecast for next week is correct. The NWS certainly has cooler temperatures in their forecast but not as cool and refreshing as what you have forecast. That upper level low forecast to be over Lake Superior is curious for this time of year.

Bob

1.60" in western shawnee (k7 & johnson drive) from last evenings storm!

Tim

I missed all of it!  I was so exhausted after dinner, I went down to the cool basement, fell asleep and didn't wake up until 6am this morning. I know we had a good amount of rainfall, and my husband said the winds were really something.

So....does anyone have a ballpark estimate of the wind speeds and rainfall totals for south Johnson County, a few miles north of Spring Hill?

Tina

.30 inches north of La Cygne. The cloud to ground lightening was spectacular last night. Mother Natures pre-fourth of july fireworks. :)

Wow, I actually lost a rather large limb off my tree from last night's storms. Funny how I didn't think the wind was that bad and it has survived much worse.

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, I leave for San Diego on Tuesday, Im cursed. ;-)  But all I can say at lease the heat will end for a little while. Im wondering why they don't and didn't downgrade it to a heat advisory for today, they rain will cool the air down, it did cool the air, sorry.
    On my way from overland park torwards Johnsn County Executive there was some tree limbs down and I saw one very ;arge tree limb down and the tree itself was leaniong, maybe propped by the limb wich was over a foot thick. If anybody can find it you should take a picture and send it in. The road that goes by JoCo Executive and across Pflumn road is what its on, going torward the rising sun its on the right side.

I had 1.30 wednesday evening here at 68th and leavenworth rd in kck.

-Rodney

When I see tree limbs down after a storm like last night, I don't think the storm was to blame as much as the condition of the tree caused the break. If you have large trees on your property that could threaten structures in severe weather, it is REAL important to have them seen by a certified arborist once a year. Tree diseases often don't show up until it's too late to treat them. Some trees are just naturally weak, and drought stress experienced during our dry winter could well be showing up in downed limbs now.

When we lived in Chicago, our next door neighbors had a dozen huge elm and boxelder trees on their property. They never had them inspected or trimmed, and every storm brought down limbs. During the drought of 2005, tree limbs just broke off on sunny days. They finally had all their trees trimmed in the fall, and for the next two years, not one tree limb hit the ground, even tough we had some pretty nasty weather.

I didn't go to horticulture college until 2005, but if I had done it 25 years ago when I was able to climb trees, I'd be an arborist now. Please, have your trees seen to so you can avoid some dangerous situations.

Tina

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that homowners are too cheap or ignorant to get their trees trimmed...most people just never think about it. Not on their radar.


Tina

Okay what are the top 5 places with the least "dramatic" weather. I can't take this anymore. This is ridiculous.

Wow Tina that's fascinating that you went to horticulture college after a few years out in the business world.  Do you do anything with your degree now?  No big....just interested.    I have a tulip tree that loses limbs occasionally.

I am SOO glad we just had our trees trimmed up on Tuesday!  We had a big old Maple that was pretty rotted and one big main trunk/branch that was barely connected to the rest of the tree.  Every time we got heavy winds that tree would creak and we were worried it was going to come down.  Tuesday they took most of the tree down ( we have a tree fort so they left it up to where the tree fort is )- I am so glad- hate to think what might've happened with the winds we've had the last few days!  Am really looking forward to a little cooler temps- this heat is sucking the energy out of me!  Dea

1.17" past 24 hours in Kingsville.

I had our trees pruned & trimmed last year.  However, the one tree that the tree trimmers wouldn't touch because it was a city tree (between the sidewalk & the curb) unfortunately, that is the tree that fell.

After last night's storm I got .23 inches of rain in Liberty.  Lots of lightening & wind but compared to the other night it was a gentle rain.

Some random thoughts today.  

First, beautiful storm structure on the thunderstorm to my east this morning.  Great vertical striations and a great view of a strong rain shaft.  Pretty cool.

Second - I am confused with the NWS criteria for Heat Warning and Heat Advisory.  In general, as I have read to understand, Advisory is for any day where the heat index reaches above 105.  A heat warning is reserved for heat indexes over 115, unless expected to be prolonged over an extended time generally defined as four days, then it will reflect the criteria of Advisory.

So, if the index is less than 115, it should be an advisory.  If extended for four days or more at an index of 105 or more, a warning.  

Yesterday, the metro did not exceed 103 for a heat index.  That was the high number, the low number for the metro was 99.  

It seems the criteria is not rigid or consistent, as by definition, neither an advisory or warning was warranted based on defined criteria.  That said, I am not critical of the decision to proceed with the advisory/warning.  It certainly seemed hot enough to express and warn of heat for those sensitive to the risk.

While it is my opinion that even in not meeting the threshold, the warning was warranted, I am curious to how much wiggle room the NWS has in bending their own criteria in the effort to alert the public.  Will we see Severe Thunderstorm Warnings hoisted for winds of 50mph or hail of 3/4 inch hail?

My thought is this...while this particular situation seems fine, do we want to burden the NWS with more responsibility in determining impact of weather beyond defined criteria?  What will happen with consistency?  How will the records distort based on individual forecasters definition of risk?

Just food for thought.  Again, not bashing at all for this situation...its hot, and the elderly and sick need to be alerted to the risk.  But....

As far as today...I am again wondering how much above 93 we get today.  Looking at the RUC, it continues a non-southerly wind for the metro through early afternoon.  Very similar to yesterday.  Today, a bit more cloud cover early.

Guess we will see.  Yesterday came in cooler than most had predicted.

I am ready for the NW flow as shown above.  This heat is for the birds.  As expected, the pattern is shifting back to this flow.  Thank goodness.

Here is a fun little site from the HPC...it is their guidance on heat index.  Below is the table for Kansas City for the next few days as it relates to the MAXIMUM Heat Index forecasts.  

The first row labeled MAX is the max temp expected.

The numbers below that are shown in percentage of likelihood of the associated heat index.

KANSAS_CITY_MO
MCI   0627 0628 0629 0630 0701
MAX     99   97   92   88   88
%>110    5   18    3    0    0
%>105   19   29    9    0    0
%>100   46   41   21    3    2
%>95    75   54   39   14   10
%>90    93   67   60   38   35
%>85    99   78   78   68   70
%>80   100   86   90   89   92

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index_MAX.shtml

Perhaps the HPC sees things a bit differently than our local weather office.

I am beginning to wonder and will begin to research [curiosity] what the economic cost is for taking set precautions for threshold alerts.  For example, for heat warnings, is there additional resources provided by municipalities to provide for shelter etc... how much tax payer spend is involved?  How about air quality when it is this hot/muggy?  What actions do municipalities take on an orange day vs. a green day?  How much does that cost?

This is likely a grad paper, but I am curious as to what the cost is of over forecasting thresholds.  Granted, most individual forecasters do not control action plans associated to thresholds, but there does seem to be quite a bit of association in those action plan discussions by NOAA agencies.

Forgive - sometimes I find the social-economic impacts of weather more interesting than the science itself.

LOL, Zonker, I studied horticulture 30 years after getting my fine arts degree -- more than a 'few years'.  In the next year or so, I'll do professional landscaping design because that's one of my certifications. Right now, I'm a K-State Extension Master Gardener, which is volunteer work. I'll never stop doing that.

Zonker, have your tree looked at. Tulip poplars are some of the largest deciduous trees and don't tolerate hot or dry sites. You may have to water yours occasionally in dry periods, but do call an arborist.

Tina

    Tina, I don't like having my trees trimmed because it ruinns their natural shape all though we do have Adki, landscapers, come and fix our gardens and plants if they need it. So far our house has the best landscaping in our neighborhood, but most people don't even try with theirs.
    Kcwxguy, you are looking at TOP heat criteria, not EAX. EAX criteria for a warning is heat index of 110 degrees, im not sure what it is for advisory, they used to say the temperatures necessary, now they just say prolonged heat and precautions. Not a big fan of that. And everybody, think about how quick 4th of July is coming, SPP of facebook already is putting out decroations for it!

Scott, those are very provocative points. Do you think funds for weather-related issues come out of states' homeland security coffers?

It "looked like" we were going to meet heat advisory criteria for at least 4 days.
Today and yesterday weren't the best of afternoon high forecast, and we will be below criteria once again today most likely.

I think we should be under maybe a heat advisory tomorrow and Saturday since we've had 2 days of a break.

Juba, if a certified and truly professional arborist ruins the form of your tree, he is not worth what you paid him. Get your trees trimmed to prevent weak limbs from causing damabe or injury, or to keep disease from spreading. Anyone can trim a tree. Most do it wrong. An arborist must carry a certification seal to be trusted.

I know Adki...less than a half mile down Ridgeview from us. We came within a hair of buying that property a few months before they did. Very weird coincidence. They did some lawn work for us last year.

Had an inch of rain here in south Raytown last night.

I doubt any trees are suffering "drought stress" from this winter. January is very dry in KC and only averages about 1" of moisture anyway. Plus the moisture was more than ample for most of the winter despite the dry January.

What's happening is that trees like silver maples and bradford pears have soft wood and are very susceptible to wind damage. Every limb that I saw down around downtown OP was from one of these trees.

ChicagoExPat - I know the weather can be very nasty for us here.  Down here in Edgerton, Kansas, we are in the country where straight line winds can have a bit of "an advantage" so to speak.  I have nine large mature trees in my yard. A good pro to trim each one is 700 to 800 bucks...since they're about 45-55 feet high.  A lot of individuals cannot spend 6300 to 7200 dollars.....that's trimming and shaping them correctly.  I know...some people neglect them, but then again, it cost a bunch of money.  Let's hope that severe weather season winds down so none of us have to deal with any damage!

Andrew

RDub, we were without precip for 4-6 weeks during the winter. Even in winter, deciduous and evergreen trees need moisture. Snow cover is ideal to insulate the soil, but in Kansas, we don't get much snow ocver, so the ground dries pretty severaly. The Extension Agent was advising us to water trees and shrubs near the end of January. Of course, I didn't. I wasn't going to hook up the hoses in January.

As for the cost of trimming trees, yeah, I know the cost is high, but yikes!!  In Chicago, we paid $200 to get a huge and very old honeylocust trimmed. We had a gigantic dead black losust removed and the stump ground for $800. DOBE, check around for better prices. We're using Van Booven now -- excellent arborists.  They advertise on KSHB.

Overall, my trees are nice and green - and yes, the beautiful White Ash Tree is one of my favorites...and makes me nervous when the high winds (70-80mph) have come through.  It is truly one of my favorites in my back yard.  It is TALL!  Regarding rain this afternoon, I don't know if we are gonna get hit with anymore.

Andrew

Posted this on last nights blog but I think most were asleep already. I am interested to hear some peoples opinions on this. This guy says he can predict most weather a year in advance:

http://www.yahoo.com/s/1091038

    No no no, I love Adki, my dad is good friends with their owner, chad. Most trimmed trees I see are round, I don't like that. Nobody has trimmed outs, Adki just does landscaping now. Can you help me though? We bought a Paulownia Tomentosa (latin) wich we planted a few weeks ago which is 12" tall, its also called a Royal Empress Tree. Its wilting even though it hot outside yet and yesterday the shade I gave it helped, do you know what would be causing this?

Actually, Chicago, we did not go 4-6 weeks without precip. We had precip on 9 days in January. It didn't add up to much, but precip was reported on a lot of days.  And with the ample moisture in other months, there is no way than an otherwise healthy tree suffered any drought stress.

Aussie, he predicts a 32 degree drop here on Sunday.

I like that video Aussie, do think we'll get storms in the next 24 housrs? He said it would be a devestating severe weather outbreak, perhaps God recalling the Christians to heavan now, as it is past 2007.

That video is interesting.

We could have some severe weather Saturday evening along that cold front considering the instability ahead of it. I remember the derecho the northeast had a couple of years ago when there was a widespread swath of 100mph winds ahead of an MCS. Interesting.

Aussie83
That was a good video. Was that from yesterday? Thunderstorms in 24 hours in the Midwest? Seems like there is always thunderstorms in the Midwest though. 50/50 shot I think. Well maybe this guy and Gary can get together. You know put all the puzzle together. I think Gary has got it but I also think that there might also be more to it. And finally I have seen a guy that believes we are now in a global cooling cycle. YES. However, now the government will want us to start heating the planet up so that we all do not freeze to death. Well I hope that there is some storms tonight. Maybe this time it will rain in Belton.

1.03" storm total two miles south of Reno.

Juba - maybe you can link where the 110 threshold is.  For the life of me, I cannot find it.  I have seen TOP and ICT at 115.  Perhaps us here a bit further East are not quite as hearty.  LOL

As far as the video...hmmm.  He predicted this active period this weekend on May 29th.  Let me look...

May 21st, I found this little nugget on our beloved blog here....

"Oddly, as I did this analysis, I found something interesting.  We get more rain/storms as we move from the split flow back to the NW flow.  That transition time as energy finally clears from the West coast and moves east has brought a high proportion of rainfall for its span.  Consider that it translates to about one week each cycle.  Last times it occurred would be last week of April, last week of February, last week of December, and last week of October. "

No matter...Gary does not have crazy Einstein hair so he may never make it to the National level.  HA!

Solar, LRC, etc..it is harder to ignore that there are better methods beyond conventional wisdom of atmospheric science...

Brett or Scott or someone -- when you say showers "in the metro" between 5 and 9 ... does that include areas south of the metro?  How about Raymore?  My husband has to spray out a house tomorrow and this evening he will be taping and doing prepwork - will leave the paper, etc. up over night.  But if the rain will extend that far south, it will be a huge waste of time and money.  

I guess I'm just wondering what the chances are of the showers extending that far south?  This isn't a case of "is the rain going to ruin my picnic" - it's a purely a question work-related for him.

Thank you so much!

Laura

Scott,

I found this on EAX website.

Excessive Heat Warning
Issued within 12 hours of the onset of the following criteria: heat index of at least 105°F for more than 3 hours per day for 2 consecutive days, or heat index more than 115°F for any period of time.

I think it will get dark around 9:00 p.m. next year this time and i predict that the sun will come up on the east coast before it rises on the west coast next July 2010. I just had to throw this out there...LOL

That would make a lot more sense, but would also mean we would have need a few more Excessive heat warnings for our area, I must've found old criteria before the NWS started changing everything a little bit.

Thanks Wyco.  Monday and Tuesday panned out, yesterday did not meet Advisory standards, and today will be a stretch, but is possible to squeak out a 105 HI somewhere in the metro.  I don't think it will..but it is possible.  Friday will likely be validated, but Sat is in question depending on the timing for the front.

That said, I stepped back and thought about this and found that validating any of the NWS watches/warnings/advisories is a moot point.  It is completely based off of both public risk and prognostication.  By nature, the NWS must be cautious and will advise/warn more often than not in a marginal situation.

Here are some examples...while the NWS has implemented polygon warning boxes, however, the EAS and NOAA radios/communication to media outlets are still county based.  Warnings are still allowed based on radar indication in lieu of any ground truth.  Let's not forget about the freeze warnings earlier this year and the debate around that.

For the lack of a perfect system, generally this is all very good.  It is those times where it doesn't work as well that sometimes the warts will show.

In the end, they must warn/advise based on likelihood.  It is all somewhat percentage based.  Rain chances are percentage as is numerical modeling used by the NWS.  If there is a strong likelihood of something happening, they must warn even if it doesn't happen.

In the end, they do fine for what they are tasked to do.  The issue may be more on the public's side for taking the advisories too literal or unchallenged.  To my point above, there is a great deal of cost associated by both private and government sectors in preparing for events based on these advisories/warnings.  The NWS must always lean to the safe side for public well being, but as a society - likely will cost us more to be "better safe than sorry".

Hummerseeker, storms could pop up anywhere really. You may not get a thing and 5 miles either direction of you could get hammered. I know, thats about as clear as mud but i wouldn't cancel your picnic plans.

LOL has anyone gone to the spc mesoanalisys page in the last 5 minutes. On the midwest surface map, it says our temp is 30 with a dewpoint of 13...LOL  Looks like they accidentally put an old archived map up. That would feel good right about now.

Oh well, they changes it now. I felt the the temp drop just looking at that map.

Hey sports, do you also do horoscopes? LOL

Anyway, after the last couple of days of being unbearably hot outside, today almost feels "cool" my comparison. I even had to put a shirt on while walking to the pool earlier today. Maybe I'll need a jacket on sunday.

NWS AFD made up for any misunderstanding, though very few of the public read the AFD due to its normal technical language...

"HAVE MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO ONGOING HAZARDS IN ORDER TO GIVE A
HEADS UP TO THE CWFA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONDITIONS GIVEN THE
LARGE ARRAY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  WE MAY LIKELY FALL JUST SHORT OF
SUGGESTED CRITERIA TODAY IN THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER THE CUMULATIVE
IMPACTS OF THIS HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE.."

In reading the whole discussion, the NWS is making a stand away from model guidance to drop temp forecasts just a smidgen due to outflows/clouds we have seen in the last two days.

Not sure their graphics reflect this however...

I'm thinking I should find other blogs that don't allow truly inappropriate comments not pertaining to the weather.  Sorry, I love reading most of the posts on here, but it is getting truly obnoxious.  Good luck with your blog......

**********************

The simple solution is to not read the comments.  Just read the posts.

Jeremy

Thanks Mammatus - I figured that was the case just about as soon as I asked my question!  That's why they call them "pop ups!"  LOL  It's not a picnic - I just put that in there because I didn't want to get jumped on for asking about something like that.  It's so my husband didn't waste time and money taping and papering and doing prepwork for a spray out tomorrow if it was going to get rained on tonight and be runied!  

Tried to email the webmaster bsmith@nbcactionnews.com and it bounced back......

******************

His email is actually just    smith@nbcactionnews.com

Jeremy

no just email webmaster@nbcactionnews.com
leave out bill smith
called the station but it goes to voivemail
bet zach and amos are luvin this

Scott,

This will clarify the excessive heat warning and heat advisories.  Much of the central region of the NWS changed their criteria last year.  Many heat and health safety studies have been done in the past 5 years leading to this modification.  It is important to note that the standard "hard" criteria no longer exists, with societal impact suggesting heat advisory criteria 2 degree +/- from 105 has significant impacts on the area.  

For a excessive heat warning, the guidance has remained near 110 at any period, however if heat advisory conditions are expected for 4 or more days, a warning should be in place.  Mind you, yesterday we were within a 2 degree variance of heat advisory criteria and today we are once again within a 2 degree variance of advisory criteira, this makes 5 days of excessively warm conditions with the extensive duration of this heat wave likely leading to much larger impacts to our society.  

The Kansas City metro needs to be treated much differently than other areas due to its many societal impacts which is often why you will see different product issued solely for the metro.  In fact, studies suggest that cities with a population greater than 500,000 often have significantly more impacts than others.  There are several papers out there regarding this issue, i'll let you look for them.  You have to consider the city has already seen 2 deaths blamed on this heatwave.  To drop a warning at this point could portray a lack of confidence and lower the guards of people for Friday and Saturday which will be much warmer than today.  

In the meantime, here is the link pointing you to the latest guidance

http://www.weather.gov/directives/sym/pd01005015c062003curr.pdf