Good Saturday morning bloggers,
The LLTI (Lezak's Leaving Town Index) was in full force this week. Just a few hours after I got on the airplane for Portland, OR a mini supercell thunderstorm formed and tracked across eastern Kansas with perfect structure and perhaps one small tornado with no damage. And, then we had thunderstorms with microburst winds on days that the models had no rain predicted even close to Kansas City. I was in training for our ESP:Live radar system when the trainer zoomed into our local area to show us how to use some of the new features (we will be sharing these with you in the coming weeks and months). It was very difficult to concentrate during the training session when Kansas City was about to have a slow moving line of thunderstorms move in. Tim, the Weather Central trainer, was doing a great job but I had a hard time concentrating. Look at the entire nation on Wednesday as there were thunderstorms in only one spot......HERE!
Here is a shot of what we were tracking on our computers as we were testing out some of the new storm tracking tools.
I wasn't able to concentrate, but I do have a lot of notes to study this week. Here is one last picture and if you know me, you know that listening to Tim was the last thing on my mind at this moment. There were around 20 other meteorologists from around the nation, but I was the only one who cared about these thunderstorms.
Now, onto today's weather. First of all, our weather team did a fantastic job covering the severe weather threats during the week, and the Excessive Heat Warning that is still in effect today. I know Jeremy has talked about this being a heat wave, but it is NOT, not to get on Jeremy, but this is just a pet peeve of mine. A heat wave in our local area is defined to be 3 consecutive days where the high temperature reaches at least 95 degrees. We have not had three consecutive days of 95 degree official highs at any location, so this will be classified as just a hot spell, and not a heat wave. You can see the highs at KCI airport below showing that it wasn't even close to being a heat wave. Today will be hot with temperatures getting close to 95 degrees, but will we have thunderstorms?
Highs this week:
- Last Saturday: 80 degrees
- Sunday: 92
- Monday: 94
- Tuesday: 97
- Wednesday: 91
- Thursday: 92
- Friday: 91
There is a very slight risk of severe thunderstorms today. If thunderstorms do form it will be later this afternoon as the cap will take a while to break. Where will the front be located at 7 PM? Here is the RUC model surface forecast valid at 7 PM this evening. Any threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be limited to near this wind shift line/cold front:
It will sizzle out ahead of the front today as temperatures may reach 100 degrees in some spots south of Kansas City. If thunderstorms form the main threat will once again be microburst winds as the thunderstorms pulse up and down. The chance of thunderstorms in Kansas City today is around 20%, but the probability goes a bit higher for areas south and southeast of the metro area. As soon as the wind shifts to the northwest you will know the threat of any severe weather will be over. We will be tracking this situation for you all day. Jeremy Nelson now gets the next 7 days off, and meteorologist Jeff Penner is filling in this weekend.
Have a great day! I get back to work on Monday.
Gary