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I have been watching the models as well.  But they differ from the same period last fall.  Last fall they were each different on thier own, but the GFS and NAM were both consistent in their own as well.  I am afraid as are others who farm out here in NE Kansas that were at least headed for a mini-drought with more heat than last year.  We should know in 2 weeks.  Another thing that we have noticed this summer compared to past ones at this time...we have not saw as many sun or moon dogs in the sky as we usually see.  Either they are not there or we are not looking enough.  Usually we see at least one of each in June.  This year we saw only one, a sundaig the first of the month.  Does that mean anything.  At the very least not enough upper air moisture.  Every year is different.  Starts to look similar but then throws a real bugger at ya and messes all your theories up.  I got 810 to come in this morning but missed ya.

Good morning Gary.  Melissa and I just watched the video of Windy.   We had just moved to the metro right before you came on the air at NBC ActionNews.   We thought she did a great job in your absence.    Well it's nearly time to board the aircraft, we are taking our two youngest down to San Diego for a couple of weeks.

I try to snap some pictures and send them to you all....

Bill and Melissa
Weiser, ID

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Bill and Melissa,

Thanks and have a fantastic holiday weekend.  We are jealous as you head off to Southern California.

Gary

Nice rainbow, couldn't see it from here in McLouth.  We had a little shower move through also and left a Trace.  Dog Days of Summer start tomorrow and a lunar eclipse for us next week.

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I will look into the timing of the lunar eclipse.  Thanks for the heads up.

Gary

Well....IF we see NO moon dogs at least we don't have pick up moon dog poo!  On a serious note, Gary we sure will be happy to get an inch or two of rain out of this next four days of weather activity.  Way too dry....3 miles west of Leavenworth on the cusp of the Kansas High Prairie.

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We will test your dry ground Friday morning.  Good luck.

Gary

That pic you took of the rainbow is beautiful Gary.  It's a little eerie..  almost looks like a rainbow at night!  Breathtaking.  Thanks for sharing!

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I was making my breakfast early this morning and I saw a little rainbow to the south, and then all of a sudden this one showed up.  I went scrabling looking for my camera as I knew it would only last a few minutes.  I just barely caught it at its brightest moment with the sunrising at the same time.

Gary

There is that silly GFS QPF graphic again...the GFS has stunk on the QPF for the last month or so.  It needs to be revamped.  Heck, I would even take the NAM over this map.  LOL.

This looks a bit more realistic...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif

It does look like after the early morning rain chances on the fourth, the front will try to sneak through leaving northern winds and mild weather for the night.  Thank goodness.

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The NAM is predicting less than .10" the entire weekend over KC, so it will be wrong!  The GFS has been horrible on its qpf for this entire season missing many precipitation events all together.  Don't just rely on the models.

Gary

Scott
Do you know if NCEP or anyone keeps a running record of how well/poorly model forecasts do? QPF is pretty hard this time of year anyway, because one place will have 2" while another place 30 miles away gets 0.

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Forecasting based on the qpf from any of the models is a risk.  But, using it to see that there may be a convective complex is a good tool to have in your forecasting pocket.  It should not be thought of as exact and if the GFS forecasts a 9 inch bullseye over Columbia, MO and nothing falls there, but 6 or so inches falls a few counties away, then I consider it an accurate forecast. It is up to the forecaster to decide  where it will actually be located. 

Gary

I need for everyone on the blog to pray for me. Yesterday, My left lung partially collasped and I have been at Olathe Medical from yesterday till about 40 minutes ago when i was released. I have alot of testing and xrays done. I just need prayer that i dont need a chest tube put in me and that i wont have to have my whole lung deflate and reflated in a major surgery

Your friend.
TF

TF, please know that you can count on me to pray for you in your health situation.  Friends are glad to do that.  Edna in Leavenworth

Also, I am enjoying this beautiful day with moderate temperature readings.  What a day!

Edna

When is the most likely time to expect an MCS tomorrow?

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From the blog:

The next complex of thunderstorms is likely going to be a bit stronger than this mornings and right over our viewing area early Friday.  Then, a third complex of thunderstorms should form Friday night into early Saturday, but this one should push the front south and we may have light north winds by Saturday allowing for a dry evening for fireworks.  At least this is how it looks right now.  We will be tracking these weather developments on NBC Action News in HD and preparing some special weather graphics for our weathercasts.

So, late night and early morning is the most likely time for any MCS.

Gary

Why did they release you without reinflating it? I wouldn't want to come home and still be scared of something. Good luck and be well.

According to Science magazine, El Nino is beginning to shift to the central Pacific Ocean.  They say this will cause more hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aPHaGIh4Qwmg

Lung collapse- that sounds nasty. Usually people are okay after that, but it is quite scary. Hopefully you don't have to have surgery to get it fixed, as it is quite a complicated and scary one! The Wicked Man hopes for your great improvement of health to come!

In weather news... Mesoscale Convective Systems! That's exciting to all interested in the great weather of the plains. We won't only have an MCS for Friday... We'll instantly double that offer with one for Saturday morning. That's 2, hear it "2" MCSs in the same week! hahaha

Someone could possibly get quite a rain out of these set ups in this complex forecast! It really would not surprise me if they issued a flash flood watch, just because a few areas may receive quite a bit of rain... that's just a possibility.

In terms of a rain chance, we could pretty much tell along time ago that this time frame would have a greater rain chance simply due to the NW flow, which could have been easily seen 59 days ago. Thank you, LRC!

Once again, I will be like Martha Stuart, and say "it's a good thing" that we will have rain.

what does the rain chances for tomorrow nights royals game look like?

davidmcg - I see your article, and raise you one...

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/research/2009-07-02-new-el-nino-hurricanes_N.htm?csp=34

But alas...I can think of one prognostication that speculated of a possible busy Gulf quite a bit back...

http://tinyurl.com/kjvebf

There is far more to upcoming trends than just ENSO.  As we see, it with many accepted theories continue to expand and grow.  All of the tools need to be used to best forecast long range impacts.  I am fascinated with teleconnections and their relationships with each other and the LRC.  I have been able to see the LRC cycles at times in the teleconnection raw numbers.  Moreover, its interesting to see how teleconnections can be affected by ENSO and the MJO.

All in all, it is still unclear what affects what or what creates what..I believe the LRC is an over reaching aspect of it all, but something still has to create the LRC each year.  I think it is influenced by some of these other things, but not created by them.

All in all, its it extraordinarily complicated and always an enjoyment to keep working on this puzzle.  

rdub - yes, I have seen that they do.  I ran across it once, but it was buried as I remember in NOAA land it would take a bit to dig out.  QPF this time of year is very difficult because of the convective feedback.  I do know that the GFS suffers from this as a bias.

Here ya go...enjoy...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml

Oh..and Gary, I find in tracking convective complexes the SREF_meanpcp_pcvv_thck_omega_3hr  product off the SREF...it provides higher resolution, does not have the convective feedback issues, and is shown in 3 hr intervals rather than 6 hr.

Just my thoughts...

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Scott,

I believe the convective feedback issue is overated. Seeing where the GFS produces a huge convective bullseye of precipitation can actually be helpful.  You just shouldn't think that it will be located exactly where it predicts it.

Gary

Whirley girl. It was only 30 percent of the lung that was deflated. through 4 different x rays, (3 yesterday, 1 today) It had shown that the lung was no longer deflating however, reaching and equilibrium and not letting itself deflate anymore. It should be able to heal itself up withen the next 3 weeks. If it shows no signs of healing then A major surgery is expected with a chest tube to fully deflate the lung then reinflate it and stay at the hospital for 4-5 days.

I cant seem to shake the hurt bug off of me. Just had surgery last friday and now my lung partially collasped.

Ahhhh finally t-ball is over and I can get my life back, LOL! Our girls placed 3rd in the tournament....the weather cooperated really well for T-ball season this year, thank you!! I never thought I would say this but we could actually use some rain down here...the little waves that have come through around here have actually missed us. Hope everyone has a great July 4th...I am working but really do not care much since I making double time, :o) Yay!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

QPF tonight or tomorrow?  Not going to happen folks.  look at the flow patterns.  Odds of getting a QPF out of this are very low and extremely rare this time of year.

kcwxguy, remember years ago when the media first got a hold of El Nino?  That was all the non-weather journalists talked about every spring and summer.  The current and expanded El Nino set up over the next 60 days won't effect the current LRC that much.  But the new LRC that develops in September and October and then matures in January will be effected.

Now an MCS.  You have to take the good with the bad.  If an MCS develops not everybody will see a bow echo or torrential rain.  At least half of us will just get a half inch or less.  Those of us out here in farm country don't need an MCS right now.  Yea, the wheat is all in and and MCS won't effect the hay that hasn't been brought in yet.  But, a hail storm right now would destry the growing corn which was put in late already because of rain.  Soybeans would more than likely from a hail event now and the calves are far enough along that they would be ok.  Now, torrential rain, that is a different story.  Not good for corn or soybeans.  Grocery prices are high enough already.

I forgot to say....I really like the promo's of Windy, really good. The picture of the rainbow was beautiful too! Have a great weekend.
Monica

TF,
good luck to you and you are in my prayers...

Sorry to hear about TF, hope you get better.
Thanks for the link you posted, Scott, it was real interesting reading the biases, The one that caught my eye was the overdoing of low QPF by the GFS, as I have seen that ALOT.
It will be interesting to see how the thunderstorms set up over the next few nights, really I don't pay too much attention to what the QPF is for these events since sometimes the MCS will track way off of what the model is thinking.  I have seen just this spring where the NAM would have MCS's in certain areas in the 6 hour forecast from initialization and just by looking at radar you could tell it was WAY off.   Who knows... maybe we will see an MCV out of one of those complexes that would be neat.

Gary...in two of your responses, you have indicated that the GFS QPF should not be thought of as an exact total or an exact location.  If it can't hit either, what good is it?

Yes, I get the idea of trends, certainly..but seems there are much better indicators available that get much closer to reality.

David - it isn't clear how ENSO affects the LRC, since we have yet to determine what even causes it...but we think it may affect it somehow.  What it means or how it could change things isn't clear.

I am not sure about this new ENSO business..but guess I will have an open mind.

Nick - I still think the complex that spawned the heavy winds down by Drexel was a MCV.  The SPC called the spin a "wake low", which may have been more of a gravity wave, but ultimately, in pulling the radar, you can see a spin around a central point in that storm.

MCVs are fun...MCSs are ok, but so very difficult to forecast due to the small features needed for its development.

does anybody know what a moist convergent zone is??

TFergensen, I'm really sorry to hear that.  I hope you don't have to go back to the hospital. But I feel for you having to go through the pain. I had pleurisy once and it hurt so bad to breathe I thought I'd die. I hope you heal really really fast!

I've heard of a tropical convergence zone but not moist convergent zone. I wonder if they're the same thing or not?

In the  US wouldn't it be when the winds come down off the mountains out west and go past them and then provide lift that can cause storms?

the  witchita weather severice was talking about a mosit convergent zon setting up around kc...so..

A moist convergence zone is essentially a pool of high moisture near a boundary.  It can be seen on the theta-e progs...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs060hr_sfc_thet.gif

Moist convergence set-up for KC... That sounds like rain!

Interesting blog with great interaction from my current observations, and I now plan to visit more often.

>>Whirlygirl-
You said, "In the US wouldn't it be when the winds come down off the mountains out west and go past them and then provide lift that can cause storms?"

^ What you mentioned really isn't "convergence." What you were trying to describe is basically mountain based lift. When the air hits the mountain, there is simply nowhere to go but up, which forces the water vapor from the lower layers to condensate in the upper layers from the much cooler temperatures.

Now, when winds come off of the mountains, it is usually drier simply because most of the moisture was condensated. This can be noted in places that have mountains that block most of the moist winds, like the SW. The mountains squeeze out most of the moisture, and it is harder for it to rain.

The other reason is that when the winds come from the directions without mountains in the SW, the winds are coming from dry land. Doesn't help much in giving parts of the SW moisture.

I've looked into this quite a bit, and there are too many variable for me to go into, unless you want me to write out something that you would see on a 10 page essay; I am sure you would appreciate me not.

For the first time in 11 days we did not reach 90 at Hutchinson. It was a "cool" 89 degrees!

Wichita has hit at least 90 in 17 of the last 18 days.

Xeno - welcome.  Take the good with the bad.  Sometimes, the blog can be quite informative, while other times, you may find more value in reading the bathroom wall at a bar.  All the same, welcome.

Well, it sucked me in..thanks, Davidmcg - I have now gone through roughly 100 pages of discussion, analysis and documentation of ENSO Modoki [still want to call it Sudoku, but guess that is already taken.  LOL]

Very interesting.  I will be searching more how it affects common teleconnections such as PNA and NAO, but did get to see some of the statistical data and how it is represented geographically.  In essence, my preliminary thought is it creates a tendancy for a trough/ridge pattern over the CONUS.  That would be consistent with the strong low pressure/warm water signature of Modoki.  In effect, based on its location, I would think it to create a negative PNA signal.

Often with a strong negative PNA signal, it will inversely affect the NAO giving a positive NAO.  The combination of these produce a general pattern of troughing on the West coast and ridging up the East coast.

This is all a very high/rough picture of what happens.  The devil is in the details.  Just off the West coast of the CONUS, there would be a strong ridge..and seasonal shifts of this overall pattern can make a huge difference to sensible weather.

All in all, I find this interesting.  More interesting will be the ongoing research/observations in how the LRC fits in to all of this and what affects what and how.  I think of the LRC as a much higher resolution to the overall pattern and find it more useful, but the long term trends may..MAY have a factor in seasonal or yearly projections...but still thinking on this one.

restull - yup..crazy, huh?  Its not as bad as it seems, yet...

High temps for June were about 3 degrees above average for ICT.  There were quite a few more days above 90 than average, however...

But, ICT was above average for rainfall too..so that helps.

@TF - sad to hear about the lung collapse but great to hear you're doing alright.

Anyway, I had the experience of driving through the storm last night. I didn't see much rain (maybe 10 minutes worth), but started to see lightning around 435 and Wornell about quarter to one. About 15 miles of Emporia, the show was simply amazing - two vivid storms on either side of the highway. If I wasn't driving solo, it would have made for amazing pictures.