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Eastern Kansas Holiday Morning T-Storms

Good morning bloggers,

An arcing line of thunderstorms formed overnight and is inching eastward on this Friday morning.  How far east will this line get? Here is the 6 AM radar image:

And, here is the radar image two hours later at 8 AM.  Thunderstorms keep developing in a warm advection lifting zone ahead of the capping layer trying to push in. Until these anchor thunderstorms weaken, which should happen in a few hours, the complex of showers and thunderstorms will stay alive and inch ever so slowly east creating a wet Friday morning:

This morning area of showers and thunderstorms will shift east, fall apart, and weaken by early this afternoon leaving a cloudy and wet first half of the day.  If you have plans for the pool just delay it until sometime this afternoon. The clouds will begin breaking up and it will end up rather warm and muggy by mid to late afternoon with dewpoint temperatures likely rising to near 70 degrees.  After the sun breaks out the attention will then be directed to where the surface features are lining up for tonight.  This is a rather rare July 4th weekend of weather starting with this mornings rain/thunderstorms. And, then possibly having a cold front moving through during the day on Saturday. 

The rest of the weekend forecast continues to evolve as well.  There is a warm front that is slowly lifting north, but this mornings rain will keep it south of the KC metro area most of the day.  Where it is located this evening will help decide who gets the most rain tonight, and whether or not there will be some severe weather.  We are analyzing the data now and will update you later on this afternoon or evening in the blog and on NBC Action News at 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight in HD.  Have a great holiday!

Gary

Published Friday, July 03, 2009 6:10 AM by glezak

Comments

 

farmgirl said:

Beautiful Rainbow here in La Cygne this  morning. Sun to the east and dark skies with thunder to the west and starting to rain.  I just love it when the sun is out and it rains so I can enjoy the rainbows.

I have a pic of the rainbow, what email address could I send the picture too?
July 3, 2009 6:54 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

If you are considering cap purely off the 10C 700mb, it would seem we are on the edge.  Based on the RUC and actual soundings from TOP, CINH is almost nothing...so, I would not say there is much of any cap out there.

I see no reason why it wouldn't ride down the boundary to the SE and along the pressure gradient of the surface high to our east.

Looks to be doing a good job of rain production due to its speed and upper air moisture support.  In looking at the progs, I wonder if this surface low doesn't take a bit of a more southern trajectory based on the cold pool ahead of it from this rain.

If so, maybe puts us just NE of the surface low, near the boundary and where the LLJ later tonight gets us closer to the action?  Dunno..need to do more analysis.
July 3, 2009 8:02 AM
 

mattwalker said:

rain at the k for the royals game tonight?  chances?

--------------

I know we have made this clear all week long.  No rain at the K!  Just morning showers and thunderstorms!  Have a great time.

Gary

July 3, 2009 8:47 AM
 

stormlover said:

still no rain here in Liberty...keep thinking it's just about here...just about here!
July 3, 2009 8:59 AM
 

LibertyJeff said:

Of all times to wish for rain!  Rain mass seems so close yet so far away.  Seems like most of metro has enjoyed a soaking rain except the northeast portion.  This is rare considering how the storms have moved this year.  
Beginning to sprinkle here finally as the area begins to wrap up.  Not seeing any more redevelopment like you were pointing out earlier Gary.  Does this mean tonight/tomorrow morning's rain will be over this area and further east?
Everyone have a safe and enjoyable 4th of July holiday!  Anyone around Liberty, the Mayor is reading the Declaration of Independence on the square at 10 am tomorrow.  Sounds like fun to go and listen.
July 3, 2009 9:28 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Perfect!  Here in south JoCo, we've had a good steady rain with periods of hard rain for about two hours. A few rumbles of thunder, but a good and needed rain that means we won't have to water anything today. Now we have to see how heavy that 9 remaining (of the 12) cubic yards of mulch is when we go out to move and spread it later on. Aww, we can do it -- my personalized vehicle tag is MULCH!

Tina
July 3, 2009 10:30 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Rain just exited our area, nothing on the radar behind it, and our total was .5" at 183rd and Ridgeview.

Tina
July 3, 2009 10:39 AM
 

Greg said:

Nice soaker, approaching .80 at 119th and Ridgeview in Olathe. Looks like a good afternoon to hit the links! Have a great 4th.
July 3, 2009 10:52 AM
 

madnick said:

This rain is great . I had put down fungus control on my lawn last night and Gary said he had all but taken the rain out of the forcast for this morning on the 10:00 P.M weather. I remember thinking I jinxed it again and I'd have to water.
Nice suprise !!!!!!

-----------------

I didn't take it out.  Actually I left it in but I did downplay it a bit.  But, I know it should be no surprise at all as we have talked about Friday morning and Saturday morning rain all week long.

Anyway, it is a nice rain for the lawn today in many spots.

Gary

July 3, 2009 10:52 AM
 

davidmcg said:

McLouth, KS 0.35"
July 3, 2009 10:54 AM
 

FlakeFan said:

    Darne't, whenever I go on vacation I miss the best weather! :) Sand Diego is still really nice this morning though depsite the marine layer. I like it actually. It made most people leave the beach yesterday. When I got in at first it was icy cold but then it became soothingly warm. ;-) I get back on Monday, will we still be in the MCS zone then?
July 3, 2009 10:58 AM
 

Hamons Custom Landscaping said:

I curse the rain at the same time that I appreciate the rain

95th and Antioch has received .56 inches.  
July 3, 2009 11:07 AM
 

marlina10 said:

I was getting worried that maybe this rain would not move out after all for the afternoon, but after looking at the radar it looks like this is the last of the rain with nothing behind it. Whew!
July 3, 2009 11:23 AM
 

stormlover said:

I got .23 of a nice gentle rain...perfect for the garden!  & now its so cool & nice out! (in Liberty)
July 3, 2009 12:27 PM
 

Barry said:

Received .61 inches In Stilwell (194th & Metcalf)
July 3, 2009 12:46 PM
 

K10K7 said:

.85 @ K10 and K7.
July 3, 2009 1:24 PM
 

marlina10 said:

I see a you guys have a high of 85 for today? I dont' see how it could get that warm when it's only 71 at 1:30? I think we'll be lucky if we pass 80.
July 3, 2009 1:34 PM
 

Zazel said:

Nice, we got missed again here in northeast KCMO.  A whopping .17 of an inch to report.  At least the grass is starting to burn up so I won't have to bother mowing this summer.
July 3, 2009 1:42 PM
 

FairSkys said:

Is this stuff that's forming up in NE Neb going to get us?  Looks like it's on the right track.  I had used up all the water in my rain barrels & still my garden had dried up so bad there were big cracks in the ground.  Hoping the garden gets a good drink and the barrels get refilled before the heat comes back.  
So far .5" at 70 & Blue Ridge
July 3, 2009 2:00 PM
 

jfgdnr said:

Rain total near 128th & Mur-Len, Olathe,Ks  0.95"
July 3, 2009 2:00 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Impressive surface low on obs. Cool watching the upper level wave in Panhandle force the issue.  I can see a bit of cu fields building ahead of it near an outflow with the cu just gushing up from the south to meet it near DDC.

Cap or no cap, too much going on in western KS for it to stay stable.  In our area, seems that the warm air hasn't cleared fast enough in the mid levels to push the cap into our area...still development coming in from the NW.

Tricky forecast indeed.
July 3, 2009 2:59 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

So Kcwxguy, are you saying we might not get any storms? Or just that there's not enough stability to have them be severe? I already got a good steady rain this morning in Piper so I'm ok with no more. Thanks.
July 3, 2009 4:39 PM
 

momof3 said:

Leaving for lake Pomme De Terre monday morning and will be there until next weekend.  Hoping for some good, cooler weather!  Hope everyone has a safe holiday weekend.
July 3, 2009 5:23 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

It feels way too cool out there for any severe weather in our area. I'm only at 76 degrees and have the AC off.
July 3, 2009 5:45 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Um..what is that in Central KS..and why is it heading east?
July 3, 2009 6:44 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Um, Scott, that's a line of thunderstorms! Sheesh, do I have to explain everything to you?  ;-)

As Gary said in his forecast, they';; be mostly north and east of the Metro, though I wouldn't mind a wee bit more rain down our way. Come this time next week, we'll be hollering for a rainy cooldown, I'm sure.

Tina in S. JoCo
July 3, 2009 7:23 PM
 

wowowow said:

Our family is headed to Theatre in the Park to see "High School Musical" starting at 8:30.  Do you think we will be rained on or will the rain hold off until after midnight?
July 3, 2009 7:37 PM
 

bewild79 said:

wowowow...
Gary said any rain would be in the middle of the night on his 6pm forcast
July 3, 2009 7:53 PM
 

sportsfreaked said:

WOW this has been some crazy weather this year!! Who would have thought that a Tornado watch would be issued to our north.

WHIRLYGIRL>>> You are correct that we most likely will not see any severe weather here in the metro. I think the most we will see would be some heavy rain in spots.

Happy 4th to everyone and please be safe out there!! Please do not drink and drive and do not let anyone drive who has been drinking. Thanks to all of those who have served this nation to keep our freedom and independence.

Gary I think you might still be on west coast time. I can't remember a time when you only posted 1 blog topic a day...LOL...just teasing you have a happy 4th!!
July 3, 2009 7:59 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

Sportsfreaked, I guess the chasers knew because I saw where they were all heading up to NE  this morning.

We're already getting some fireworks shot off tonight. So make sure you keep all your animals inside this weekend to keep them safe.
July 3, 2009 8:24 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Sprinkling in McLouth now.

Fireworks just now?  Been going on here for 2 weeks.  City people miss out on all the fun.
July 3, 2009 8:53 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Rain here in McLouth just went from sprinkles to rain.
July 3, 2009 9:04 PM
 

FlakeFan said:

Your all so lucky, its so sunny and mild in San Diego. The only thing interesting is how the marine layer stopes RIGHT at the beach. You guys get thunderstorms when I leave for a week, so unfair. I know how Gary feels now. ;-) Have a wonderful 233 birthday america!!!
July 3, 2009 9:35 PM
 

mnumom said:

I just jumped ... I thought it was really booming with a sharp clap of thunder but realized it was the illegal fireworks that people must be shooting off here in the city of Olathe. We are near 151st and Pflumm. The radar appears clear so it must be a lot of fireworks nearby ...
July 3, 2009 9:53 PM
 

pjjayhawk said:

off and on rain - not serious yet here in Shawnee - 435 & Shawnee Msn Parkway.  we had 0.83 this AM.
July 3, 2009 9:56 PM
 

FlakeFan said:

Fireworks are illegal in Olathe? Uh-ohh. Good thing I'm not here. Guess I need to tell my neighborhood now. Darn.
July 3, 2009 10:02 PM
 

FlakeFan said:

If you ever go to LA go to magic mountain and ride X2, they play music and famous qutoes on it. Sound effect to match the ride perfectly. My favorite part; YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TURTH!
July 3, 2009 10:13 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Got rained out at the drive in...bummer.  Was expecting the rain to hold off until much later.  Guess not.
July 3, 2009 10:50 PM
 

marlina10 said:

After hearing Gary's forecast tonight I'm debating whether I should pack a pair of jeans for the fireworks tomorrow night. 73 for the evening almost doesn't sound warm enough for shorts. Weird to think it could actually be a little chilly out when the fireworks go off.
July 3, 2009 10:57 PM
 

bewild79 said:

HOLY COW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I would swear something close got hit by lightning.  Raining hard with lots of thunder and lightning and some wind here in parkville
becky
July 3, 2009 11:04 PM
 

Lillyanya said:

Wow! It's loud out there here on 169 and Barry Road. Lots of lightning. :( Me no like!
July 3, 2009 11:12 PM
 

chieffan07 said:

I don't know if any one is still awake but are we expecting any of these overnight storms to be severe?

Thanks
July 4, 2009 12:37 AM
 

Stilwell said:

weird... weather.com says we are under a significant weather alert. Never heard of that before. Why would it just not be a severe thunderstorm warning? Odd.
July 4, 2009 12:47 AM
 

LBF1958 said:

chieffan07, the noaa just issued a special weather statement. It appears the most severe is cloud to ground lightening. Check it out at www.noaa.gov .
July 4, 2009 12:48 AM
 

MissionKim said:

Where is everybody? Normally when we have rain in the area, things are hoppin' in here.  Looks like it's going to rain for hours in the KC Metro.
July 4, 2009 12:49 AM
 

Stilwell said:

Here is what it says:



Significant Weather Alert for Johnson County, KS


Get WeatherReady
•WeatherReady Safety Guide
•More Severe Weather Readiness Tips
•National and Local Weather News
•Slideshow: Watches & Warnings Explained
•Video: Storm Watch
Issued by The National Weather Service
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
12:38 am CDT, Sat., Jul. 4, 2009

... SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLAY... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON... NORTHWESTERN JACKSON... SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE AND WYANDOTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1234 AM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FERRELVIEW TO PARKVILLE TO LENEXA... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH DOWNTOWN KANSAS CITY INTO CLAY AND JACKSON COUNTY OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY... PERSONS OUTDOORS ARE URGED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.
July 4, 2009 12:50 AM
 

chieffan07 said:

Thanks LBF. Is that about all we should expect? "...a few wind gusts up to 40 MPH...(from the noaa)?

I just don't want to be caught off guard by a tornado or wind around 60 or 70 MPH.

Thanks again
July 4, 2009 12:59 AM
 

radman22 said:

Looks like some nice steady rain tonight with some rumbles mixed in
July 4, 2009 1:23 AM
 

Lillyanya said:

Ugh I'm tired of the THUNDER!
July 4, 2009 2:24 AM
 

knssctykelly said:

309 am here in south KC and we have thunder and lightning and lots of rain.  Its nice outside though.  I just wish it would rain around 8 pm for about 20 min to get my roof nice and wet.  LOL we always douse our roof with water on the 4th just in case.  The last time I remember it being chilly on the 4th was about 12 years ago.  I remember my first son was in a stroller wrapped up in a blanket.  It was so cold that night everyone was outside wrapped in blankets watching big fireworks. I think it was 1997.  
July 4, 2009 3:15 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Ahhhhh, I slept through it all!  Our basement is cozy and so quiet during most storms, so I hunkered down there on the sofa bed with the (tranquilized) dogs just before it began to rain. The evil 18-year old from down the street was setting off huge fireworks, aimed at neighbors' backyards, and at 8:30, a neighbor lady called to ask if I would call the police. She said he had his little brothers and sisters with him and the parents weren't home. She was too timid to call the cops, so I did. This kid is seriously spoiled and could use a good dose of military discipline. One day he'll run over a kid while he speeds down our street. I had no qualms at all about reporting him.

I'm so glad we had enough rain to discourage grass fires. If people blow themselves up, that's one thing, but damaging other peoples' property is another. And if the counties around here wanted to pad their coffers, they would make a concerted effort to issue citations to fireworks scofflaws. They could bring in millions of $$ down here in south JoCo. It's going to sound like Fallujah here tonight.

Tina
July 4, 2009 6:33 AM
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