12:10 PM Update: A small complex of showers and thunderstorms is drifting south down the state line. We will be tracking this activity this afternoon.
Good Wednesday morning bloggers,
The forecast is rather complex as we are going to be near the edge of a heat wave developing to our southwest. Already this morning we had a complex of thunderstorms move south from Iowa in north flow aloft around the developing anticyclone (upper level high height area). Outflow from this complex switched our winds to the north early today and this will likely lead to our 11th day in a row below 90 degrees. And, thunderstorms may form again near this outflow boundary this afternoon as we could have another interesting day of cumulus development. A smaller verison of outflow happened yesterday afternoon. Take a look at the thunderstorm that developed over Oceans of Fun yesterday afternoon:
Amazingly, most of the viewing area had sunshine with a few cumulus clouds on Tuesday, but not a small area along the Missouri River where there was a weak disturbance moving across and it triggered two or three thunderstorms over this isolated part of the metro area. Look at the rain shaft and outflow that cooled the late afternoon off. This wasn't quite the microburst that we had two weeks ago, but it is a small version of it. I am sure the winds in this downdraft were more like around 25 mph which wouldn't have caused any damage:
The above two pictures are from our American Century Investments Skyview. Our Briarcliff North Village Skyview captured these next two pictures offering a different perspective looking to the south. Look at the very heavy rain falling to the ground in the form of this rain shaft, unfortunately heading right towards Oceans and Worlds of Fun Tuesday:
This mornings thunderstorm complex may have fallen apart with the outflow boundary getting through us, but it is a great example of what will likely happen around the periphery of the upper level ridge or anticyclone during the next few days. The heat will build quite strongly underneath this clockwise circulation to our south and depending on each days thunderstorm complexes,and the position of any front or outflow bounday, the heat that affects us is still tough to forecast. One hour I think we will surge to 98 on Thursday and then the next model run I think it will only by 92. It's only a 6 degree difference, but I think it is the difference from it really sizzling and us not quite getting into the heat. So which will it be? Here is the 500 mb flow forecast for Friday:
We will be following these developments on the new data today. Our weather team has been working hard to create some very special graphics and time-lapses of the weather that we are experiencing and about to experience. Look for some more special graphics today and tonign in HD on NBC Action News. Have a great day!
Gary
