Good early morning bloggers,
Before we get started this morning I want to talk about a huge morning thunderstorm in southeast South Dakota and now moving down the Nebraska/Iowa border (sounds a bit like yesterday, but a bigger version of it). I just read the National Weather Service discussion and they are paying close attention to a severe MCS that developed a few hours ago and it is turning our way. We will be watching this closely today as it could affect our viewing area this afternoon. Last nights HD Powercast had it coming this evening and with the history of the last few weeks bringing these threats over our area it won't be a big surprise. It will be heating up into the 90s ahead of this complex of thunderstorms and it shouldn't fall apart. We are in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today. Look at the satellite photo from 8:10 AM:

We have had a streak of 11 days in a row below 90 degrees, but the winning streak is likely going to end today. A heat wave has started over Oklahoma and Texas. The heat will expand north and east today and approach our area. With us being on the edge of the upper level ridge we will likely continue to be in the zone where thunderstorms develop and ride around the upper high. On Wednesday a cluster of thunderstorms tracked out of Nebraska and into northeast Kansas. Only one thunderstorm survived and it tracked due south from Hiawatha to Lawrence to Ottawa to Garnett. When it passed by Lawrence and moved into Ottawa it intensified and 80 to 90 mph microburst winds caused damage and power outages in a few cities between Ottawa and Garnett. Thunderstorms over central and southern Kansas this morning have produced nearly 3 inches of rain in spots west and southwest of Emporia, KS. This is just another sign that we will have potential for thunderstorms on the periphery of the developing anticyclone, or upper level high. And, as discussed in the first paragraph above, an MCS is heading our way today. Will it hold together? If it does it will be a very interesting evening.
Here is the 48 hour forecast position of the upper level high strengthening over the southern plains states. An upper high of this strength is a heat wave creating monster. Air will be sinking underneath this thing and temperatures are going to soar to our south. Just as we get hot over our local area a weak cold front should be driven south cooling us off and bringing a chance of thunderstorms by the weekend. Oklahoma and Texas won't be so lucky as the front should stall keeping them in the heat.

Oklahoma and Texas may not get much relief during the next two to three weeks. The strength of the upper level high can be picked out by looking at the central height. I say height because it isn't a high "pressure" area. This is a high "height" area. These maps show the 500 mb flow. So, the pressure is 500 mb everywhere on these two maps, but at different levels of the atmosphere. When you see the 594 circle, that 594 stands for 5,940 meters. The pressure is 500 mb 5,940 meters above that point. On the map above there is a 546 circle aroud an upper low north of Minnesota. The 500 mb pressure at that point is only 5,460 meters above sea level, or a low height area. Anyway, with the heat building the center of each of these highs is close to 6,000 meters, or 600 decameters above sea level. This is a rather strong upper high and we are likely going to see a very significant heat wave just south and west of us in the coming days and weeks. Kansas City will likely have a heat wave as well, and we have been able to use the LRC to pick out the most likely time for this to happen. For weeks now we have been anticipating the upper high to shift and expand over the central plains by around the 20th of July. So, get ready for some heat spurts here and the a likely heat wave within two weeks. This next map is the 500 mb forecast for the expected heat wave around July 20th. The LRC is alive and well, but by August it will likely become more unreliable as a new weather pattern will begin a slow evolution. The pattern will still be related to this years pattern, but it will be a fading version of itself soon, but not yet!

Breezy and Stormy got shaved yesterday at Sydneys Pet Spa in Leawood, KS. Stormy was shaved in May for her first ever shaving and it was so successful that we decided to give Breezy the same treatment. Here are the before and after pictures:

Breezy is the younger and bigger dog. She is 3 years old. Stormy the weather dog is on the right and she is now 8 years old. They get along great and love each other very much. I adopted both dogs from the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City. What do you think of their new look?

Have a great day! We have some high level cirrus clouds, the tops of the Kansas thunderstorms, but it should be a great day at the pool. Don't forget to put on your sunscreen!
Gary