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Before and After....July 9, 2009

Good early morning bloggers,

Before we get started this morning I want to talk about a huge morning thunderstorm in southeast South Dakota and now moving down the Nebraska/Iowa border (sounds a bit like yesterday, but a bigger version of it).  I just read the National Weather Service discussion and they are paying close attention to a severe MCS that developed a few hours ago and it is turning our way.  We will be watching this closely today as it could affect our viewing area this afternoon. Last nights HD Powercast had it coming this evening and with the history of the last few weeks bringing these threats over our area it won't be a big surprise.  It will be heating up into the 90s ahead of this complex of thunderstorms and it shouldn't fall apart. We are in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today.  Look at the satellite photo from 8:10 AM:

We have had a streak of 11 days in a row below 90 degrees, but the winning streak is likely going to end today.  A heat wave has started over Oklahoma and Texas.  The heat will expand north and east today and approach our area.  With us being on the edge of the upper level ridge we will likely continue to be in the zone where thunderstorms develop and ride around the upper high.  On Wednesday a cluster of thunderstorms tracked out of Nebraska and into northeast Kansas.  Only one thunderstorm survived and it tracked due south from Hiawatha to Lawrence to Ottawa to Garnett. When it passed by Lawrence and moved into Ottawa it intensified and 80 to 90 mph microburst winds caused damage and power outages in a few cities between Ottawa and Garnett.  Thunderstorms over central and southern Kansas this morning have produced nearly 3 inches of rain in spots west and southwest of Emporia, KS.  This is just another sign that we will have potential for thunderstorms on the periphery of the developing anticyclone, or upper level high. And, as discussed in the first paragraph above, an MCS is heading our way today.  Will it hold together?  If it does it will be a very interesting evening. 

Here is the 48 hour forecast position of the upper level high strengthening over the southern plains states. An upper high of this strength is a heat wave creating monster.  Air will be sinking underneath this thing and temperatures are going to soar to our south.  Just as we get hot over our local area a weak cold front should be driven south cooling us off and bringing a chance of thunderstorms by the weekend.  Oklahoma and Texas won't be so lucky as the front should stall keeping them in the heat.

Oklahoma and Texas may not get much relief during the next two to three weeks.  The strength of the upper level high can be picked out by looking at the central height.  I say height because it isn't a high "pressure" area.  This is a high "height" area.  These maps show the 500 mb flow.  So, the pressure is 500 mb everywhere on these two maps, but at different levels of the atmosphere.  When you see the 594 circle, that 594 stands for 5,940 meters. The pressure is 500 mb 5,940 meters above that point.  On the map above there is a 546 circle aroud an upper low north of Minnesota. The 500 mb pressure at that point is only 5,460 meters above sea level, or a low height area.  Anyway, with the heat building the center of each of these highs is close to 6,000 meters, or 600 decameters above sea level. This is a rather strong upper high and we are likely going to see a very significant heat wave just south and west of us in the coming days and weeks.  Kansas City will likely have a heat wave as well, and we have been able to use the LRC to pick out the most likely time for this to happen.  For weeks now we have been anticipating the upper high to shift and expand over the central plains by around the 20th of July.  So, get ready for some heat spurts here and the a likely heat wave within two weeks.  This next map is the 500 mb forecast for the expected heat wave around July 20th.  The LRC is alive and well, but by August it will likely become more unreliable as a new weather pattern will begin a slow evolution. The pattern will still be related to this years pattern, but it will be a fading version of itself soon, but  not yet!

Breezy and Stormy got shaved yesterday at Sydneys Pet Spa in Leawood, KS.  Stormy was shaved in May for her first ever shaving and it was so successful that we decided to give Breezy the same treatment.  Here are the before and after pictures:

Breezy is the younger and bigger dog.  She is 3 years old.  Stormy the weather dog is on the right and she is now 8 years old.  They get along great and love each other very much.  I adopted both dogs from the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City.  What do you think of their new look?

Have a great day!  We have some high level cirrus clouds, the tops of the Kansas thunderstorms, but it should be a great day at the pool.  Don't forget to put on your sunscreen!

Gary

Published Thursday, July 09, 2009 12:03 AM by glezak

Comments

 

kristy said:

Gary, those dogs look too cute shaved!!!!!!
July 9, 2009 12:44 AM
 

Xenodiagnostic said:

They almost look happier shaved! LOL. Probably cools them off more, but I'll have to look into that.

Looks like those people down towards Wichita are getting slammed with rain. Looks like a few isolated spots may have got 2.5-3". And it's still going!

I wonder if those will ever collapse and lay down another lovely outflow boundary somewhere. Give KC a couple of storms, eh?
July 9, 2009 1:15 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

Wow today was a kind of neat weather day... At about 3:30 am today/yesterday we had a dying complex of T'storms that brought strong north winds that blasted at about 40 mph through the city, then during the middle of the day today that thunderstorm complex/cell slid to our west and gave us "anvil rain" that came down moderately for a bit then it turned sunny. I looks like places north and east of Wichita are having a big training problem tonight, some flooded basements down that way it looks like.
July 9, 2009 1:31 AM
 

woolgrower said:

Actually Gary, I'm not a huge fan of shaving dogs and to be honest, don't think its cute...sorry.  I also raise sheep and can tell you that if they are sheared in the heat of summer, they will overheat because their wool insulates them and allows them to regulate their temps and keeps them from becoming sunburned.  Works the same with dogs.  

Another issue is the way the hair grows back.  Here is a comment from a DVM concerning this:

"Aleda Cheng, DVM, warns that shaving the coats of northern breeds such as Siberian huskies or Samoyeds, or double-coated breeds such as German shepherds, could cause an irreversible change in the hair. She adds that veterinary dermatologists “frown upon shaving shelties (Shetland sheep dogs) because their coats can take years to regrow."

More:
"Sun protection
Another issue to consider is sun protection. Dogs are susceptible to sunburn and skin cancer, just like people. Closely shaved dogs need sunscreen protection. According to Dr. Susan Nelson, a veterinarian and assistant professor of clinical sciences at Kansas State University’s Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital in Manhattan, Kan., any PABA-free sunscreen will work. She is partial to sports-type sunscreens because they’re waterproof. Sprays are fine too, as long as full coverage is obtained.

Other reasons not to shave a dog include:

For double-coated dogs, fur protects against biting flies and mosquitoes.
Some dogs feel “naked” and vulnerable without their coats (think walking around without clothes...).
A dog may continue to scratch as if it still had its coat, and can irritate the freshly clipped skin, creating hot spots.

It’s important to weigh all the relevant factors before making that cut. If there’s any doubt, consult with a veterinarian to discuss whether shaving is a good or safe option for your dog."

So, most will tell you its better to brush regularly and believe me I understand the hassle.  I have a husky that is still shedding after 3 months and 2 Great Pyrs that I seriously considered shaving but my groomer friend talked me out of it and I'm glad she did.  After several thorough brushings (the birds are thrilled, dog hair makes great nesting material!), they now have a thinner coat that keeps them from getting sunburned and at the same times keeps them cool.

--------------------

Thanks for the great points.  Since they are mostly inside dogs a few of the issues aren't as significant for Breezy and Stormy, but I will pay close attention as their fur grows back in the coming weeks.  I just took them for a walk and they don't seem affected at all.  Your point about sunburn could come into play because I do take them on many runs with me, but usually early in the morning.  Thanks again as there is a lot to think about.

Gary

July 9, 2009 7:09 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Oh Gary, what beautiful and lucky dogs!  Our two are also adopted and rescued, the only way we will ever get a dog. They're both border collie mixes, and I can't imagine what they'd look like shaved, so we just keep getting them trimmed up. My husband would kill me if I had them shaved!  Breezy and Stormy look real happy with their no 'do's'!

We bought a Furminator grooming tool that was pretty pricey but unbelievably effective at removing a lot of fur and undercoat. You have to use it outdoors though, because you get a mountain of fluff that will literally choke the best vacuum cleaner!

Tina

-------------

Thanks for the information Tina.  Breezy and Stormy were done at Sydney's Pet Spa.  I considered doing it myself and may try it sometime, but they do a fantastic job at grooming and shaving.

Gary

July 9, 2009 7:34 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Okay, back to the weather. Yesterday, I tracked the thunderstorm as it moved southeast, and I was actually disappointed that it didn't move over south JoCo and bring us some rain. Then I saw the damage it did and I about died. This makes me leary of any storm that moves our way, and here I was thinking I had overcome my dread of thunderstorms!  

This morning, my husband reminded me that the terrible storm we had in Chicago in May of 1999 (or 2000) had been reported as a microburst. I had forgotten about that. It tore gutters off our house, took down a 30-year old tree in the backyard, and snapped the 4x4 wooden support for our basketball backboard/hoop at ground level. (I always hated that thing anyway.)  

My husband drove home from work through that storm and actually thought his flight to Germany that night was going to take off!! I begged him to forget about it, but he caught a limo and went to O'Hare anyway. At midnight, he phoned home and said all flights had been cancelled and asked me to come pick him up because he couldn't get a cab or limo. Oh man, I felt like leaving him there.

I don't want to go through another storm like that. So Gary, how common ARE these microbursts?  It seems like we're getting one every couple of days!

Tina

------------

Tina,

We are just in a pattern that has created the conditions for strong microbursts.  On Tuesday when downtown KC had a very heavy thunderstorm that also produced a microburst, but it only had 25 mph winds.  Every thunderstorm produces some form of wind outflow at the ground, which is what a microburst is, but the one yesterday and others this season just had the conditions for damaging ones.

Gary

July 9, 2009 7:42 AM
 

woolgrower said:

Gary wrote:
" Since they are mostly inside dogs a few of the issues aren't as significant for Breezy and Stormy..."

I figured as much but I worry about others seeing this an acceptable way to groom any dog, especially those that spend a lot of time outside in a backyard.  My comments weren't meant to be directed solely at you but at those that might consider this for their own dogs.

-------------------

And this is why I am glad you put your comments into the blog today.  It is something that should be thought out and discussed with your vet before you shave your dog.  I am going to the lake this weekend.  It will be easier to see if they have a tick, not that this should be why you shave your dog, but it is at least a slight advantage to get that tick early.

Gary

July 9, 2009 7:44 AM
 

Brocksmama said:

Well, Breezy and Stormy kinda look like you now Gary!  LOL!  It was quite interesting watching that storm move west of us yesterday- was on my way out to Shawnee to get my daughter and the sky got darker the farther west I went- I also saw the Mammatus clouds. Now if we could just get enough rain here at my house then I could get out of watering the gazillion plants we have!  Dea

---------------

Dea,

Be careful what we wish for.  There is a severe MCS moving our way this morning.  I want some rain too, but don't need any severe weather.

Gary

July 9, 2009 8:50 AM
 

spotter said:

well gary the dogs look great very happy my question is what sun screen would you use i thought i throw that in.have a great weekend at the lake.
July 9, 2009 8:52 AM
 

sheldan said:

I also have a furminator and love it love it love it.  Although  you cannot use it on some breeds.
I have a weather question.  Seems to me we are having a lot of microbursts this year. Or is this common and we are just now catching them?  Just curious.
Shelly
July 9, 2009 8:59 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Hmmmm...severe MCS.  Will Brett be explaining this at 11am?  I need to know when to tranquilize my poor storm phobic dog.

Also, Gary, do you have any indication at all of the rain totals we might be getting in the next 24 hours?  Our sprinklers are working overtime, and I'm watering shrubs by hand to conserve as much water as I can. It's about to get HOT out there!

Tina
July 9, 2009 9:07 AM
 

f00dl3 said:

Why was there no Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for the cell over Ottawa and rual Franklin county Kansas yesterday afternoon until it got 25 miles south of Ottawa?

From as much as 40 minutes prior to the storm getting into Ottawa, WSR88D base reflectivity showed +65-70 DBz returns, and composite reflectivity actually showed +75 DBz and higher returns... but yet no warning was issued until the storm got south of Ottawa, with only a Special Weather Statement stating "pea sized hail" is possible with the storm. I know that we are trying to now warn on severe weather based on actual occurances and the new 1" hail criteria also plays a part, but I see this as a general failure of the National Weather Services to properly alert the public of a dangerous weather situation.

-----------

There wasn't any history of severe weather with that cell until it got into Franklin county when it intensified.  Microbursts usually just suddenly happen and in yesterday's one cell environment it was tough to warn before it happened.  The warning could have come out a few minutes before it hit at best.

Gary

July 9, 2009 9:07 AM
 

f00dl3 said:

I still think they could have issued a warning on the cell. I would think anytime there is a storm producing +75 DBz & up composite reflectivity returns, that is a strong indication that the storm is producing (in addition to the possibility of hail) enough rainfall beneath it to cause a general sinking moition of the air along with strong cooling, and form an environment conductive to microburst and downburst winds due to microscale cold pool formation.
July 9, 2009 9:44 AM
 

weatherwyco said:

Isure hope we get some rainfall later today in western Wyandotte county. It would be great to save some money on the ever growing water bill.

Bryan

---------------

Bryan,

Hold off on watering even if this misses us today.  We may get this one, but if not there is a good chance later tonight.  If they both miss us then its time to spend money on the water.

Gary

July 9, 2009 9:57 AM
 

leroelandpark said:

Is Breezy the dog with "issues?"  The one that chewed your couch?
July 9, 2009 10:00 AM
 

FlakeFan said:

Animals are always so cute, I was weird to see the thunderstorm pusle right over Lawrence, weaken and get very big before colapsing some of itself over Ottwa. I love rain, it will keeps us cool. Hopefully no damage though.
July 9, 2009 10:05 AM
 

juba said:

Thats funny Tina, my Aunt and Uncle who live a two blocks away have a golden retreiver like that. I've never seen him go crazy scared but when they got another golden he calmed down a little but still gets skittish. BTW, is a furminator called what it is becuase it sheds so much? ;-)
July 9, 2009 10:14 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

Since the topic is microbursts and MCS thoughts, I wanted to drop in a few observations.

First, the complex to our north looks nasty.  If you loop the IR, if you look carefully, you can see some counterclockwise rotation near the core on the west side of the storm.  This is evidence on IR by the brightest tops.  I would not be surprise to see this get very wicked.  Theta-E profiles are very good to sustain the moisture infusion.

Speaking of theta-e, some might find this article interesting in how some can forecast microburst environments based on the theta-e profile...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/mb.html

In doing a bit more looking and reading, I was intrigued by a statement Gary made above.  "On Tuesday when downtown KC had a very heavy thunderstorm that also produced a microburst, but it only had 25 mph winds"

Ok..really..what is a microburst?  I agree in that every collapsing thunderstorm will generally send off some outflow, but what is the criteria in calling it a microburst?

Well..a few things of note - it can't be classified simply based on moisture or a huge rain shaft, as there are dry microbursts where only virga is present.

I think the best way to think of it is a collapsing thunderstorm with destructive winds measured in the outflow.  25mph winds are hardly destructive, unless you are a sparrow.

But...I found another article that brings another thought to mind.

http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mab/microburst/micro_course.html

Seems there are macrobursts and microbursts.  Based on what I have seen lately, the majority of the events have been macrobursts according to Fujita's terms as the outflows have gone much beyond 2.5 miles as evidenced via radar analysis.

Isn't summer fun when you are on the NE side just outside a ridge?
July 9, 2009 10:17 AM
 

weatherwyco said:

Thanks Gary. Those storms in Nebraska....if they get to Kansas City what time would they arrive?
July 9, 2009 10:17 AM
 

weatherwyco said:

Thanks Gary. Those storms in Nebraska....if they get to Kansas City what time would they arrive?
July 9, 2009 10:23 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

f00dl3 - Keep in mind, when looking at  radar, you need to consider the proximity of the storm to the radar.  Tilt makes a huge difference.  At the distance from EAX to Ottawa, even at the .5 beam, it might have been hitting a thousand or so feet into the storm.

As you were looking at dbz, it might have been better to be looking at velocities.

That kind of dbz noise would indicate a powerful storm, but it would be unclear if it was rain, hail, or other features bringing that high reflectivity.

If I get the time, I am wanting to pull both reflectivity and velocity loops for this storm to really look at what happened when...

...if I get the time....
July 9, 2009 10:28 AM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Im ready for fall, the month of October is waiting for us.  I
July 9, 2009 10:29 AM
 

RDub said:

Right now it looks like the MCS is aiming more towards northern Missouri than KC itself...of course, yesterday's MCS made a sudden jump to the west right as it approached us.

In northeastern JoCo we are not really hurting for rain as much as southern areas, but it would be nice to get some more.
July 9, 2009 10:29 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Juba, the Furmiator is a play on the term 'Terminator', and it's a grooming rake you can get at Petsmart or Petco. Look at their website, and I'm not kidding, it's no exaggeration!  Do this outdoors. When you're done, you'll wonder how you have any DOG left.   http://www.furminator.com/

I'm looking at the system that's moving through Omaha and Iowa now and thinking it looks like it's weakening a bit?  What are the chances this one will reintensify like that one did yesterday? Also, doesn't it look like it's headed toward norther Missouri?  Much as I wouldn't like to get severe weather here, I think the people in northern Missouri have been unfairly targeted by the weather gods this year.  The poor Northlanders!

Tina
July 9, 2009 10:35 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

By the way, I'm watering no matter what happens.  Soil that is already moistened will attract and hold water better than very dry soil. It's a cohesion/adhesion thing, like pouring water on wet baby powder as opposed to dry bavby powder. If we get 1/2 - 1" of rain, it won't be enough anyway, so I need to water today. If we get 2-3" of rain, most of it will run off the hard, dry soil surface, or it will pool up in low spots and with the heat pumping into the area, that's a recipe for brown patch on lawns.

For the life of me, I can't figure why people try to garden in Kansas. I'm a K-State Extension Master Gardener and even I'm ready to throw in the towel half the time.

Tina
July 9, 2009 10:40 AM
 

Aussie83 said:

So is it possible that the MCS will grow and strengthen by the time it gets here because it will be close to the hottest time of the day? Still learning here!
July 9, 2009 10:44 AM
 

RDub said:

Jeez Tina, being a bit dramatic today, aren't we? I know lots of people who have excellent gardens in Kansas. Mine is doing fine. Of course, most lawns will go dormant for a while in the summer, but that's what cool-season grasses do. Just relax and try not to over-think things.
July 9, 2009 10:58 AM
 

krisz said:

The furminators work great.  You can find generic ones as well.  Try Schneiders.com.
July 9, 2009 11:16 AM
 

juba said:

    Im so embrarresed, I still wouldn't want a dog called furminator, nobody would! The will porbably turn, notic they are near the edge of the ridge, like us. They shuld turn a little more south then they are going now. Bring rain but not a deluge, we have paches of mud in our backyard from this water, I mean pondes with mud in them, sorry!
    Are are talking about a real garden, fruits and vegatables, or landscaping. I get them confused. My grandma's tomato plants are almost taller than me right now and not quite done groing and have nice deep grean foliage and covered in yellow blooms. There will be some yummy dinners later this summer! My cherry tomatos are already making lots of fruite wich we picked yesterday. Its fun!
July 9, 2009 11:17 AM
 

juba said:

Severe thunderstorm watch for nothweastern viewing area, St joseph, ect. . .
July 9, 2009 11:18 AM
 

juba said:

Woops, my mistake, just noth of there. I wonder why its so large with only a tiny srorm in the middle.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0567.html
July 9, 2009 11:21 AM
 

juba said:

Woops, it didn;t post so I'll try again. sorry Joe, your right below but still watch out!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0567.html
July 9, 2009 11:26 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Aww, RDub, take a joke, willya?  Sure, people in Kansas have excellent gardens, but not nearly as many people have them here as they do up north. That was one of the first things I noticed when we moved down here two years ago. I'm a landscape designer and became seriously worried about the market potential down here. Most of the homes we looked at had grass all the way up to the foundation, no plantings at all, and some of them were well over 10 years old. I had never seen grass growing up to the foundation before, and then we bought one of those places! We've made huge changes since then. Expensive ones!

Brett just said that watch up north will probably be allowed to expire early. He doesn't seem at all concerned about it because it's falling apart pretty fast. I wasn't crazy about his microcast for overnight, though. I'll take the rain, but I can do without the wind.
July 9, 2009 11:30 AM
 

RDub said:

"Are are talking about a real garden, fruits and vegatables, or landscaping"

All of the above I guess. Pretty much everything in my yard is doing well and hasn't needed much water so far this year. I know parts of the area have missed some of the recent rains, but it's not like anybody is so dry around here they should be throwing in the towel. Current drought monitor shows Missouri as 100% drought free and Kansas 90%.
July 9, 2009 11:31 AM
 

Xenodiagnostic said:

That MCS looks to be weakening right now, but I think it's just a phase. Favorable conditions continue to lay in its path. Honestly, this storm reminds me of an MCS that hit just south of KC a while back. All of this moderate rain forms in front of the main bow, then they come together, and then the bow echo later prevails stronger.

The complex will probably turn more southerly once more, this all based upon prior experiences with MCSs. Kansas City looks to be alright most likely, but don't quote me on that.
July 9, 2009 11:33 AM
 

Xenodiagnostic said:

That MCS looks to be weakening right now, but I think it's just a phase. Favorable conditions continue to lay in its path. Honestly, this storm reminds me of an MCS that hit just south of KC a while back. All of this moderate rain forms in front of the main bow, then they come together, and then the bow echo later prevails stronger.

The complex will probably turn more southerly once more, this all based upon prior experiences with MCSs. Kansas City looks to be alright most likely, but don't quote me on that.
July 9, 2009 11:34 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Gary,

Did you get my email yesterday?
July 9, 2009 11:35 AM
 

RDub said:

"Well over 10 years old"? LOL. That's old? Maybe what you're seeing is partly related to being in a newly-developed area with no established trees or shrubs.

I'm sure it is very easy to garden in Chicago during the 4 frost-free months of the year...:-).
July 9, 2009 11:36 AM
 

FairSkys said:

Hi Tina,
What did Brett say about wind tonight?  I'm at work and have been wondering what the update was on that MCS up north, and what was coming down the pike tonight.
Thanks.
July 9, 2009 11:37 AM
 

bewild79 said:

I have not been able to watch any newscasts can anyone tell me if it is supposed to be storming in the rush hour time period in the morning?
July 9, 2009 11:41 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Actually, RDub, many trees and shrubs do much better in Chicago than they do here, and lawns are way easier to tend to up there. Kansas is in the AHS designated 'transition zone' and is widely accepted as the most challenging place to establish a lawn, trees and shrubs. Plants and turf have to put up with the most extreme weather. Chicago's gardening season runs from April through late October, and it's easier to get the garden in up there because they don't have as much spring rain as we do. I have yet to get out and do any serious gardening before May in Kansas. And remember that snow cover is extremely good for gardens, much better than a dry and cold winter. I rarely lose shrubs, but the dry, cold, windy January we had this year was a killer for several things.

By the way, I was at a Master Gardeners gathering yesterday and learned that Japanese Beetles have been spotted in some areas of Johnson County. This is terrible news, as they've not been a problem here so far. I didn't take any plants with me from Chicago, for fear of transporting Japanese beetle grubs in the soil. This is a pest that I don't ever want to deal with again. So be on the lookout, and if you see any -- squish 'em. It's about the only thing that works. !

Tina
July 9, 2009 11:46 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Brett reported that there's a good chance of overnight thunderstorms, and the microcast had them over eastern Kansas along the state line between around midnight and 3 or 4am. He said we couldn't rule out some heavy downpours and gusty winds, and the red and orange bits were right over JoCo when he said it. It doesn't look like the morning rush will be badly affected, but we still may have a bit of rain around.

The severe t-stoprm watch has been allowed to expire, except for a few counties in far north Missouri.
July 9, 2009 11:50 AM
 

brian1234 said:

Ok I know this post will not make me very popular,. but this is'nt high school.  So here ya go.  I'v been a chaser/spotter for several years.  I am now part of a 4 team professional chase crew.  And I gotta tell ya, it doesn't take a college degree or a wizzard to look at radar, current patterns, and use some good old common sense.  I have learned this not in a classroom, or books, but by field work.  

Although yesterdays storm that blew into Ottawa was not expected and unpredictable. It should have been a warned cell after it blew through Topeka in the very , very early afternoon.  I chased the cell, trying to intercept in Ottawa before it happened. There was more than enough time to warn that cell. The cloud tops were over 40,0000 and it had markers of 70 and 75 dbz on them the whole time.   Althought the 40,000 ft cloud tops aren't generally something that us chasers get too terribly excited about,. the 70 to 75 dbz's are.  And knowing that, it should have been warned right away.  I would not have chased nearly an hour southwest if I didn't think this could produce something.  

I was the only chaser in the field, and got the only exclusive footage from the field.
The semi flipped over on the car, which was only 4 cars in front of me.

The point is, as a professional chaser, I am dissapointed with those in forcasting, who should have put a warn on this cell as it passed through Topeka.  A little common sense and good judgement calls is what will set you aside from the rest.

That's why we are in the field. Radar indicated stuff can produce alot of bogus info, althought most of it is good info, and a nice heads up, if you don't have anyone in the field reporting and chasing, then yoru just relying on computers and technology,.. and comon sense tends to get thrown out of the mix.

July 9, 2009 11:56 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

July 9, 2009 12:01 PM
 

RDub said:

True, we are in a tricky place for lawns, because it's too warm for cool season grasses and too cold for warm season grasses. But this problem can be partly cured by an attitude adjustment: you just have to accept that your lawn will be dormant during some part of the warm season.

But I was being serious when I said part of your frustration is from being in a new neighborhood. In the rush to develop these areas, not much attention was paid to keeping the soil in good shape for future landscaping. So you end up with a very compacted layer of native soil (with some construction waste thrown in) with a thin layer of imported topsoil, much of which washed away during the first heavy rain. All of the tall trees are removed so there is no shade in the hot weather and no shelter from the wind in the winter...not good conditions for growing. If you go to established neighborhoods you'll see that things are a lot better.
July 9, 2009 12:02 PM
 

N2mountains said:

Great explanation of the weather events in our path Gary! Although I am a fall and winter fan, I have to take the bad as well, and this doesnt look like much fun. Better get the outside work completed in the next few days and then hibernate in the air conditioning!
The storm up north looks like a very intense situation for later this afternoon. It's a shame we cannot get some of these hit us in the form of snow during the winter season.

Your dogs look like they are ready for the heat as well!
July 9, 2009 12:02 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Brian1234 - good points, but I will take issue with one thought that I mentioned above..

Just because a storm has high dbz, does not alone indicate it is severe.  I presume the NWS was monitoring both velocity and VIL for warning criteria.  I can't give much more thoughts on this as I was not watching it yesterday, and really need to pull the data before I fully go after this point.

That said, you last point is EXTREMELY valid.  Ground truth rules.  Radar is a great tool, but it has flaws.  Consider the storm's lifespan from NE and lack of severe until near Ottawa.  It did not have a history of severe, and likely blossomed in a microscale environment rich for development.

I give the NWS a break on this one, but do not disagree with most of your points.
July 9, 2009 12:08 PM
 

RDub said:

Meanwhile the current severe watch box has no reports of any severe weather in it...all are from earlier, when the storm was in extreme SE south dakota...
July 9, 2009 12:11 PM
 

juba said:

    Tina, everybody in our neighbor hood has boring landscaping except us. Because we moved from San Diego probably. That place is full of flowers and trees! My favorite are the Jacaranda wich are in full bloom right now as well as the banana palms. We hiered a landscaper to come and do our house. It is wonderful to walk through in the morning. I think our hostas are three feet indiameter right now, its pretty with ther flowers.  I have seen some of the beatles, I hate them. But I was barefoot and not about to squish a bug. Bad pests. Our grass is greenist in shady areas of our yard, if you have a dead or brown spot try planting a tree!
    Now WEATHER! How did we get on gardening any way? :D If the powercast showed the heaviest rain right ontop of you don't expect to get right into it but near it. They computers are never EXACTLY correct. I hope we get an MD for JoCo, I missed all the storms while I was gone and need some really badly. Its been a while. Marine layer is super boring.
July 9, 2009 12:16 PM
 

brian1234 said:

Yeah Scott, there are pros and cons everywhere.  But as I watched it bloom up through Topeka, I was very surpised that it was not warned.  But going on gut instict, I packed up my gear, and headed out and found the perfect intercept point.  The funny thing is that as i tracked southwest along I-35 she shifted from the southeast, and came due south,.  As a storm chaser the biggest No No is to punch the core. The core punched me!!  As as the rain came down in buckets, traffic in both lanes came to a complete stop.  Then the hail core punched in with marble not pea sized hail, then the microburst entered.  The semi nect to me in the right lane started to rock back and fourth,.. and i thought it was gonna fall on me. Only to find just 4 vehicles in front of me there there two simi's flipped over from the right lane into the left.  The winds were massive.  I was the first on the scene. It was incredible.

Sorry for the long story.  But I do agree with you.  The signiture aspects of this storm were not text book for a tornado.  Althoght it was a ncie supercell, it was not a signiture tornado porducer. but the lightning was massive,.. about 10-15 huge bolts per minute, all cloud do ground. The wind was hurricane force winds.. But at some point, you gotta put a warn on it.  SPC and SWS did'nt do so until after the storm did it's damage in Ottawa,. and it was too late,. but it did give heads up to the counties to the southeast in it's path.
July 9, 2009 12:18 PM
 

DPannell said:

Awwwww Breezy and Stormy looks so precious!  I'm so glad you had Stormy shaved because that got me to try it out for Windy, best thing we have ever done for her, she loves it and I love the break from pet hair!

--deb
July 9, 2009 12:20 PM
 

cornstalk said:

Im not a pro either but it looked severe to me just south of Topeka. I drove through the west edge hauling corn at Garnett. I have noticed the NWS and local mets are more likely to ignore a storm they didn't forecast that when they are expecting it. The NWS was reporting only 60 mile an hour winds at Garnett even after the storm. Anyone in the storm knew better than that. Today they are saying 80 to 90 mph winds. There is lots of damage and some will be without electricity for 3 days.
July 9, 2009 12:25 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Tina ... you can borrow our beagle for the japanese beetles.  When we lived in the country, every morning there were literally hundreds of them on the porch - alive, dead, dying ... our beagle just LOVED them.  Cream filling or something, beats me!  The birds would pick off the leftovers.  We could NOT get him to leave them alone.  We finally called the vet and he said they were harmless - directed us to a couple of websites where, surprise surprise, owner dog owners said their dogs lived for japanese beetle time!  It was just the one year that we had so many like that.  ANyway ... my beagle's yours on loan!  :)

Laura
July 9, 2009 12:41 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

RDub, great point. I'm wishing we had foregone acreage and moved to Prairie Village or older portions of Overland Park. We have friends with beautiful dogwoods, rhododendrons and azaleas, things I would never dream of planting here.

Two years ago, we trucked in 260 cubic yards of compost in one day. Argh...$$$$.

Yesterday's storm and the resulting power outages is adding fuel to my argument to buy a good backup generator for this winter. I almost have my husband convinced.

Tina
July 9, 2009 12:51 PM
 

Craig said:

Tail End Charlie might be breaking off from the MCS and heading south and a new MD for our area.
July 9, 2009 12:53 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

HummerSeeker, are you sure those were Japanese beetles -- or those Asian ladybeetles? Japanese beetles wouldn't congregate on a porch. They're too busy eating the leaves off the trees and the blooms off the flowering plants. The reason I ask is that one of our dogs likes to eat the Asian ladybeetles in our porch.
July 9, 2009 12:54 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Tina, could b I guess.  I looked them up online and they sure looked like the japanese beetles.  Only in the morning (like before the sun was even up).  Dozer would also walk along in the yard, stop and paw at the ground and come up munching.  From what we read, they were actually baby grubworms and I think he was getting them as they were "hatching" or whatever it is they do.  But I don't recall seeing them on the trees.  We didn't really have any flowers - just gigantic huge monster trees!
July 9, 2009 1:11 PM
 

sportsfreaked said:

Ok here goes for a great looking yard. There is a seed from Pennington that is called Fescue/Bluegrass Myco Advantage and it is available at Lowe's. This is the best seed I have ever used!! It is very dark green coor almost blue. It is very tolerant to the heat here in K.C. I have done 3 yards in my neighborhood with this grass as all the neighbors love the way it looks and the durability of it. If anyone wants more info send me a message and I will email you the info!! I will try to post some pics for everyone to see. ED
July 9, 2009 1:17 PM
 

Xenodiagnostic said:

Not exactly what I thought would happen... oh well. Still coming south!

Might get stronger later, especially with the great conditions :)
July 9, 2009 1:29 PM
 

juba said:

We get those seeds too! I love them, we put down the seeds right before all the monster rains, rember? Now its tall like all the other grass and super fluffy! The only flace it didn't survive was in a place too exposed, if you plant it you should put some dead brass or pine needles ontop of the seeds to protect them.
July 9, 2009 1:46 PM
 

RDub said:

260 yards of compost trucked in? Yikes! That must be some serious acreage you were trying to improve...
July 9, 2009 1:57 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Sportsfreak, I just looked up MycoAdvantage grass seed, and it's interesting. The seed is coated with what must be mycorrhizae, a family of beneficial fungi that attach to roots and act like root extensions. It's a symbiotic relationship. You can buy mycorrhizae in bulk, though I don't know how you could introduce it into a lawn unless you aerate first. I've always sprinkled it on tree and shrub roots at planting time. There are many different varieties, each working best with specific types of plants. I'm not sure what K-State says about mycorrhizae, so I'm just speaking for myself here. I think it's pretty effective for building good root systems.

Tina
July 9, 2009 2:15 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Very nice looking dogs Gary!
July 9, 2009 2:17 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

RDub, only three acres, but we were regrading and needed to make a huge berm to keep our septic field from flooding. We also put in 300 ft. of dry creekbed, which isn't dry as often as I'd like. After some tweaking, we now have stormwater trained to go where we want it to go. All that compost only went on about a half acre of the property.

Tina
July 9, 2009 2:17 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

Please nobody take offense at this but could we kinda go back to weather? I'm waiting to hear more about if this MCS will head toward the metro or if we'll get anything at all.
July 9, 2009 2:32 PM
 

Xenodiagnostic said:

Make up a quick forum if you want to talk about horticulture and stuff. The weather blog is being taken over... LOL.
July 9, 2009 2:41 PM
 

Turd Fergenson said:

Calm Down. Jeeze. Lets just get back to the Microburst discussion. and if we are even gonna get rain tonight. Need some here in Olathe
July 9, 2009 3:13 PM
 

Turd Fergenson said:

Also. Latest Outlook puts us in 30 wind Slashed and 30 Hail Slashed for Severe weather tonight
July 9, 2009 3:14 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Well the storms to our north and east fell apart, but they sent a strong out flow through here a few minutes ago and it was pretty impressive, maybe 40 or so mph gusts from the east-northeast. Seems like the storm are dodging us, yet we are still getting some neat side effects to come through. It is kind of like we age getting our thunderstorms in bits and pieces.
July 9, 2009 3:15 PM
 

RDub said:

well, it's not like people are somehow being prevented from posting weather things...if people had something to say, they'd be saying it.

The MCS is currently missing the metro area by a wide margin.
July 9, 2009 3:18 PM
 

WilliamR said:

Just looking at the radar, looks like it's fallen apart, whether that's deceiving or not, I don't know.
July 9, 2009 3:19 PM
 

Mammatus said:

There is a decent risk of something heading this way later tonight.
July 9, 2009 3:24 PM
 

RDub said:

SPC must think something could re-form along the outflow from the last MCS.
July 9, 2009 3:28 PM
 

Dwight said:

I do agree with keeping the discussion on weather but if one has to use expletives to get a point across, then the point isn't worth making. Foul language is the language of the linguistically lazy--or worse, ignorant.
July 9, 2009 3:33 PM
 

Brocksmama said:

Well it definitely made it over 90˚ here at my house today ( 68th Terr. and Oak ) Now if we could just get some rain to come a bit closer to the metro...  Although it might just result in making it muggier...
July 9, 2009 3:34 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Cleanup in aisle pisedBeotch!!  Sheesh, get a grip. Okay, we went overboard, but the main reason people want rain in summer is for the lawn and garden.
July 9, 2009 3:37 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

I'm sorry. I get carried away. I'm taking a break now and will get my info from Gary at 5pm.

T.
July 9, 2009 3:43 PM
 

RDub said:

Gary, you need to add some small tidbit about your lawn, in addition to stuff about your dogs, into the blog entry so we can all be on topic.
July 9, 2009 3:44 PM
 

Tony Baker said:

pisedBeotch: Spew expletives on a blog more suited to your obvious lack of decorum. This isn't the place. Adults are conversing here. I hope this childish outburst is your last on this blog.
July 9, 2009 3:49 PM
 

Stilwell said:

Gary, Stormy and Breezy look adorable! I hope we get storms tonight, need the rain!
July 9, 2009 3:56 PM
 

Xenodiagnostic said:

Tina,
I really like your posts as they are helpful! Horticulture is interesting, but it would work better on a calm day!

Looks like we have quite a bit of time before the risks of storms goes up. I must say that it isn't common for the SPC to hatch the wind predictions unless it is pretty ugly.

I'm personally looking forward to a just lovely MCS to come southward once more late tonight. If you look at radar, there have already been many storms up in N. NE, and moving into the Iowa area. There will probably be a big cluster of storms come down later tonight! Fun night ahead for all in the meteorological world. ;)



July 9, 2009 4:09 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

You're fine Tina - nothing happening with the weather anyway!  Just hot!  I'm enjoying the gardening tips actually.
July 9, 2009 4:09 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I'm trying to talk my daugher into watering the veggie garden. It needs it and every time we give up on rain and water it, it rains. So far I can't pull her away from video games. Gotta love Summer breaks.
July 9, 2009 4:23 PM
 

RDub said:

Well, right now this day is plenty calm. The nearest t-storm complex is well north of Des Moines in Iowa and is heading ESE to miss us by hundreds of miles. Only mesoscale discussion active from SPC is for northern Minnesota....
July 9, 2009 4:32 PM
 

juba said:

I don't know why people would think Tina was a child, being that smart in horticulture is hard, its like saying a kid could under stand this title, it was for HW a while ago:

"The Dynamics of Interbeing
and Monological Imperatives
in *** and Jane: A Study
in Psychic Transrelational
Gender Modes."

Can you understand that, I can but It wasn't easy to lean to understand wording like that. Sorry this isn't about weather but the sky is BLEW, its HOT, and CLOUDLESS! Boring day, It dosen't seem like rain will come soon. Sighhh.

July 9, 2009 4:34 PM
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