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NBC Action Weather Blog

Storm Picture...T-Storm Chances

Watch NBC Action News HD at 10pm and from 8-9 a.m. Saturday morning for Kansas City's most accurate forecast!

Good evening bloggers.  Last night at this time I was discussing the possibility of damaging winds between 3-7 a.m. across parts of our viewing area with a round of morning thunderstorms.  Those storm hit areas like Savannah, Cameron, Richmond, and Lexington the hardest.  The winds were likely in the neighborhood of 60-70mph. 

It always amazes me that trees 40-50+ years old have seen some pretty intense storms over the years, but just one wind gust of 60-70mph can take them out.  This picture is from Lexington, MO.

For the rest of this evening we need to watch the possibility of thunderstorms developing on the edge of a thermal low.  A thermal low can form when temperatures are extremely hot...like the 110-117 degree heat that occurred over western Oklahoma today.  Alva, OK topped out at 117 degrees this afternoon!!  Thermal lows are very common in the desert.  The difference between the desert and the Plains in this case...moisture.  So on the northern edge of the thermal low some thunderstorms have developed.

I think if these do get going they should stay south of Kansas City...but how far is the question.  I think if a complex of thunderstorms would form it should push more into southeast Kansas...possibly affecting Anderson and Linn counties.  Once again this is a big question for the next few hours.  Here is the RUC forecast for later this evening.  Notice the area of green representing some rain or thunderstorms.  Also, the thermal low over the panhandle of Oklahoma.

 

Thank you to everyone who sent pictures and rainfall totals from our latest round of storms Friday morning!

Make sure to join me this weekend on NBC Action News HD from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 & 10 p.m. both Saturday and Sunday!

Jeremy

Published Friday, July 10, 2009 6:34 PM by Jeremy WxPlus

Comments

 

Xenodiagnostic said:

This is different. I simply do not remember a thermal low effecting us in recent history. It's hard to imagine 117 degrees somewhere as close as North Oklahoma, and it's especially odd to see 117 degrees with dewpoints in the 60s!

Down here in Lincoln, MO, the atmosphere is supercharged in a way. My thermometer isn't the most accurate in terms of the official stations, but is always pretty darn close. We've had very light showers from time to time, but the sun has came out too, and I guess that is what is causing my dewpoint reading at 84 right now. It was up to 86 for a time! The highest I've seen it read before this evening is 82! It was hovering at about 75-77 before this.

I am personally expecting storms here later. I have more confidence in my forecast for tonight. LOL!
July 10, 2009 7:56 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I have not been able to see any forecasts today...can someone tell me if we are expecting any storms overnight? thanks
becky
July 10, 2009 8:05 PM
 

sportsfreaked said:

BECKY>>> It all depends on what happens in Western Kansas. If storms get going out west and to our south west then there is a chance for storms to come into KC. How strong and what part of the KC metro is the big question mark. The chance of severe weather is slim with the chance being mostly hail abd some strong winds. As always just my 2 cents and I am no means an expert!!
ED
July 10, 2009 8:16 PM
 

Xenodiagnostic said:

Becky-
Higher chances are south of the metro. In general, the further south, the higher the chance. I have a pretty good chance in my location most likely.
July 10, 2009 8:36 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Thanks for the info!  
July 10, 2009 8:48 PM
 

sportsfreaked said:

You are welcome
July 10, 2009 8:51 PM
 

Xenodiagnostic said:

New MD come right up to the east side of Kansas City.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1511.html

Looks like the area out in the Manhattan area is the best in terms of development so far, yet it's not even that great... yet at least. ;) Looking for some development there in terms of some storms.

Now, these don't look to be even close in comparison to the awesomeness of what southern Kansas looks to have. Look at the Dodge City radar. There is an outflow going south, and some thunderstorms, which haven't been very severe yet, are moving north.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=ddc&product=N0R&loop=yes
Awesome. Looks like there might be a big cluster trying to become there, but it doesn't look like it will move much!
July 10, 2009 8:59 PM
 

juba said:

There was a tree like that in the picture that fell over near Blue Valley West when the december storms came through, but it got uprooted, not snapped. Thosw winds were probably a lot stronger scince there we no leaves and the tree was uprooted. Does the NWS change warning criteria for damage in the winter? Everything tends to be frozen, hardened, and just harder to hurt. Probably 80-90 MPH then. Scary up north, glad our damage was minor.
July 10, 2009 9:27 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Gusty winds, thunder and a bit of rain in La Cygne. I though severe weather was suppose to die down after June 15. Seems to be hanging on this year.
July 11, 2009 12:47 AM
 

davidmcg said:

Wow, NWS just issued a significant weather event for Jefferson and Douglas County until 2:15AM.  We got heavy lightening all around me.  I am up smoking a massive quantity of meat for family reunion later today.  This isn't going to make it any easier.  But it is a fantastic light show to the west and south of McLouth/Oskaloosa.
July 11, 2009 1:46 AM
 

weatherwyco said:

Line of storms to the west of the KC Metro area went up fast. LLJ must be kicking in.

Bryan
July 11, 2009 1:47 AM
 

chieffan07 said:

Hello, I was unable to watch any of the newscasts tonight. Could anyone give me an idea of what to expect tonight? Are the storms that are near Topeka expected to make it to the metro? Are we expecting any severe weather during the overnight hours?

I know that’s a lot of questions but and help would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you
July 11, 2009 1:49 AM
 

davidmcg said:

The LLJ has to be kicking in.  This stuff went from very little to this big blob.  Just between McLouth/Oskaloosa and Lawrence they are getting hammered.  Just got of the phone with a firefighter down that way.  Raining so heavy he can't see 50' out to his truck except when the lightening flashes and very heavy pea size hail, winds around 30.  Missing me by about 3 miles.
July 11, 2009 2:03 AM
 

davidmcg said:

Urban and Small Stream Advisory now Northern Douglas and Southern Jefferson County.  Additional 2" of rain in next hour.
July 11, 2009 2:06 AM
 

farmgirl said:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Cass and Clinton CO.

Now, I wonder why my NOAA radio alarmed me since I have it set for Miami and Linn CO. It has been doing this lately. Anyone have any ideas?
July 11, 2009 3:55 AM
 

farmgirl said:

I should say Henry County - Clinton, MO for the Warning.
July 11, 2009 3:56 AM
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