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Quick update on thunderstorm chances?  All you talked about was the heat, not the chances for storms.

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Blogs are not created in a short amount of time...patience:)

Jeremy

I was curious on that also....lol

Well, Kimberly beat me to the thunderstorm thing.  Topeka tv meterologists are all calling for 97 to 98.  When it gets that hot, whats a few degrees..  Now back to that weather crossing the Colorado/Kansas border.  Does it get here or not?

Sorry Jeremy,
Got a little anxious...lol
becky

I'm all for lower heat temps. Boy, it sure is sticky out. Just got down vaccuming cobwebs out of the old barn along with dead bugs...ewww!

Probably all for not as more webs will be built by tomorrow, but I can't stand a cobwebby barn. As the evening wore on it seemed to get more humid; maybe because the breeze died down.

Is it still looking like low dewpoints for the weekend? I sure could use another weekend trail ride.

Are we a little tiered, theres quite a few typo's in there, I don't understand it all! Sorry, I don't want heat but thunderstorms. Maybe a non meso rainny line can for and speed though but clouds stick around, ideally. There are some large trees wilting from all the water, and my especially wich has VERY dark leaves was yellow yesterday when our yard was a bog, but today it was just muddy!!!

This weather has been the same story over and over again, as we have continually had thunderstorms move in night, after night, and after night. Really, I should actually say morning, but I'm sure you understand my point.

After Tuesday, the chances of rain are looking smaller and the temperatures cooler. Slightly calmer than the weather currently with the higher probabilities of storms to our south for once. Maybe things will dry out!

I am personally expecting some storms tomorrow as the front moves north, and I think they will be more concerning than the ones in the evening. These will likely keep anyone in Missouri in the low 90s, if not mid 80s. In terms of my predictions for KCI tomorrow, I say, "92 degrees, dew points of 74, and heat indecies of 102."

Once more, there was really no need for the heat advisory. Even earlier today when it looked like the temperatures might have reached 100 with heat indecies of 108, there was really no need for it, as one day of that is not bad. There should be two factors in issuing those: Time and Heat.

X-man

HPC five day rain totals, sounds like more than Juba wants!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Stange how the NWS for EAX creates a breifing page titled "Severe Weather Returns Tuesday," and it talks about the heat and how we might have some late night thunderstorms with heavy rain and isloated severe storms. Why call it that, people may think were gonna have an outbreak!?!?!?! I still like the page, maybe heat and thunderstorms return tuesday would have been a better title though. But its okay, EAX NWS does good.

Xeno, EHW can only be issued within 24 hours of the expected heat, they are even sometimes issued on the day of the heat. So although we may not need a HA a HW would be better. They did a sufieient job. Be patient, the front may come roaring though with little storm development and have slightly more southwest winds, (god forbid) don't critsize them, until after any forecast they get wrong.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=weatherbrief

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=eax&wwa=heat advisory

Theres lots of typos tonight, maybe we can all blame it on the computer and be happy! i hope for cooler weather tomarrow although I'll take whatever comes, as it its only God's will. Goodnight everybody!!!

Stan, your revized title is very similar to what they have, must've just changed it becasue it dosen't say "Severe Weather Returns Tuesday." FlakeFan, good thinking, I'm sure he'll save the tree to help keep Earth cleaner, after all it was an Earthday tree!

Stanzda-
Good point, but even if things max out at 100 degrees in Kansas City, the heat indecies wouldn't be much over 105. Here are the Chicago criteria from the NWS:

***Heat Advisory - Maximum heat index of 105 to 110oF with a minimum of 75oF for two or more consecutive days.
1)Max heat indecies of 105 to 110 degrees Fahrenheit for 2 or more days
2)Minimum heat indecies >75
3)Both of the aforementioned extending for 2 or more days.

In no way did any potential come to this. Our criteria should even be a little bit harder to reach than theirs, also.  

We would have 1 day of 105 to 110 at the max. 1 day, not 2. I understand they are trying to protect the people, but I think this was a little over board. The last issuance was backed up in the forecast, but this one wasn't.

shure am glad 2 c that tha thre degre waranty is bak!!!!! :) lol

Xeno - I largely agree with your thoughts.  EAX has been a bit soft this year on the HA/HW criteria.  I will somewhat disagree with the backing of the last issuance.

A HW was issued for a period of six days.  Two verified.  Four did not.

Without looking at one model, but considering persistence of the last week or so, it seems night/morning convection is likely in the area based on our proximity to the ridge and the continued high dewpoints.

It would be safe to assume that tomorrow would be impacted by cloud cover or outflow.  It may not, but models will greatly struggle with these mesoscale components.  

Just based on all this, I would not be surprised with upper 80s or low 90s.  Now, I guess I will look at the models.  LOL

Xeno,
EAX"s criteria for a heat advisory is heat indicies near 105° for 3 hours or more, or heat indicies do not fall below 80° overnight.

An excessive heat warning is issued when heat indicies are expected to reach 115° for any length of time, or heat advisory conditions are expected to persist for 3 or more days.

0z NAM brings the heat much closer that 12z.  

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta24hr_sfc_temp.gif

Cloud cover will be a concern and will make a huge difference.

KCWXGUY and others it looks like,

There are no specific criteria for office to office heat products any further, this is straight from NWS directives which you or anyone can do a Google search for.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005015c062003curr.pdf

You have to remember that criteria for large metropolitan areas differs from other rural areas primarily due to a higher level of impact especially societal.  There have been several studies produced which directly point to a higher level of impact in cities with populations greater than 200,000. (I'll let you search for that as well) Also, it is important to not get tied so directly to criteria and specific numbers in these cases.  The NWS directives (policy) is much more lenient with terms like "around", meaning +/- 2 degrees of 105 in most cases.   Its much like a 3 degree guarantee, numbers mean nothing but a pat on the back if you reach them. However in these cases if a live is saved due to an advanced notice of the conditions and a magic number isn't reached, that outweighs all the nay-sayers.  

In the cases of prolonged heat exposure, similar to a month or two ago, I think they feel criteria is much less important and serves more as a guidance.  Remember we had several people killed in this city during that heat spell.  Once again, societal impact drives these things events, as even though temperatures may have failed to meet a magical number, there were still numerous hospitalizations and deaths due to the prolonged nature of that event.  Definitely worth the excessive heat warning they issued.

Now granted, there are many questions regarding Tuesday's setup, with a good potential for a bust evident.  However, the signals are far to strong that it will be very hot and likely very humid likely causing physical stress and perhaps physical harm if exposed outdoors too long.  

You could also over-warn the people, and they will not pay attention. We know enough of that though.  

They really issued this taking a high risk of being very wrong though.

Meso out for central Kansas and even a severe thunderstorm warning out near Hays.  Meso sounds like they are watching it awfully close, but aren't quite convinced a blanket watch is necessary out that way.  Probably going to be an instance of they don't issue a watch, then a bow echo will form, they will issue a significant weather event statement and then some damaging straight line winds will follow and an imbedded F0 or F1 tornado will be in there someplace.

davidmcg, I agree those are some nasty storms out that way it seems like a watch should be put out for those storms.

Hello, are the storms that are now in West Kansas going to weaken before they get to the Metro, or should we expect a similar situation when storms do occur here early this morning?

Thank you