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No fog out here in McLouth this morning as some were suggesting would happen.  But we did have a very heavy dew over night.  60 degrees here as well.  Our over night low, which came at 5:36AM was 59 and our record was 51.  Doesn't look like much of a chance for rain Friday, but as ya say, its a ways off.  I wanna chime in on something else.  We have had quite a few weeks to adjust to ya not being on the radio early in the morning.  I have to say, its not the same with out ya.

Gary
You will hear no complaining about the temperatures from this guy. I work outside so this is great by me. Yesterday we received 2.6 inches of rain and I didn't hear one clap of thunder all day. Anyway, thanks for providing this great blog, very informative and educational.  Have a great day.

Jason

Gary, Jeremy & the WX team,

You guys are pure studs!  I hope all the whiners remember how beautiful our weather has been for the past couple weeks this winter when we get the 15 below with 25 knot winds out of the north.  Considering we are in late July, this weather is just glorious.  thanks for the great job you guys do!  

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Your welcome.  I agree with you.....this weather is just spectacular.

Gary

So the LRC's length can change a few days depending on the speed of the Jet Strean during each cycle? Its been so cool these last few years maybe North America could have a mini ice-age. Remember in the Dark ages of Europoe it was unusually cold for a long time. Not glaciers but much cooler summers and brutal winters that made it hard to do anything great like the romans. It was because the sun was very innactive in the sunspot cycle. Which means i answerd my self, no! ;-)

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The cycle length isn't perfect.  This year's cycle has been anywhere from around 51 days to around 61 days.  The strength of the jet stream and many other factors could play a role.

Gary

This weather is unbelievable for July. Noticing the days are getting shorter and the LRC is still hanging in there it seems unlikely that an extended heat wave would build and set in this summer. I am sure it is possible for some HOT days in August, but the fact that the LRC has been this prominent this summer and even in a weakening state could it be a much nicer and tolerable August?

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There are no real signs of any major heat waves over our area. Right now our team is leaning towards yes a more tolerable month of August...but with that said, we are not saying there will not be some very hot days during August or September.

Jacob Honeycutt

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Just looking at yesterdays stats I posted it is extremely unlikely we will have an extended heat wave.

Gary

So should we just bid farewell to good, hot pool days for the rest of the summer? =)

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No! We still have the entire months of August and September to get through.  It can still get rather hot over the next month and a half or so.  If you like the heat there is still time...keep the pools open!

Jacob Honeycutt

YEAH for no extended heat wave, that is fantastic!  We have a pool cover that traps the heat from the sun so even when it is cooler the water is still around 85 so it is still perfect.  Hope everyone enjoys the cooler weather and I hope it sticks around until it is time for snow!

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All of us here in the weather center (except for maybe Jeremy) are enjoying this cooler weather.  Winter is getting ever so closer and I know Gary, Jeff and I are getting excited.

Jacob Honeycutt

"Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's Most Accurat Forecast!"

Accurat? Now you are using your own vocab. words? :)

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Well thanks for pointing that out.  Its fixed now...

Jacob Honeycutt

Just had to say we had my daughter's 6th birthday party outside yesterday.  We have never had it outside because it has always been to miserably hot.  Yesterday was fantastic!  All the kids were outside not destroying my house and everyone had soooooo much fun!  Whomever is responsible for yesterday, I THANK you!!!

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Your welcome! Happy Birthday to your daughter from our entire weather team!

Jacob Honeycutt

Okay Andrew we have to deal with your ranting and raving about global warming and all of that, I think you can forgive some occasional errors.  Keep up the good work team!

Caution - not light reading

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/NAO_200307/NAO_3.php

Interesting concept of "climatic memory".  Similar in thought of LRC long term longwaves in that there would be something that would trigger ridges and troughs to appear in the same locations though the LRC pattern.

Also interesting is a similar exploration of causation of the NAO.  

Here is a very general thought.  If indeed we continue into an El Nino pattern, there is a propensity for the PNA to remain positive.  This would encourage troughing in and south of the Aleutians, ridging in the mountain states and low pressure in the SE US.  On the flip side, for the last 40 years or so, the NAO has been more positive than negative.  This would indicate a bit of warmth and moisture riding up the SE and mid Atlantic.  It also seems to bring a bit of blocking into the Atlantic.

All that said, just based on very broad information, it would seem perhaps a mean trough would form in the Central Plains to Ohio Valley.  

One thing of note, in looking at the last 10 years, the NAO has been weaker as a whole, but when present, seems to have a tendency to show up in the Winter months more positive and negative in Spring.  Something to think about.

Of course, this is just high level using the standard means of interpretation from teleconnections.  Surprising many I suppose, I do quite a bit of teleconnection and climate analysis as part of my research and do not focus only on the LRC.  LOL

Ideally, waiting for the LRC to set up would be the best answer for next Winter..but certainly knowing the climate setup may help be more accurate as well.

So, will those storms in Nebraska make it down here intact?

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There is a chance. Thunderstorms a developing rapily and moving southeast. Whether or not they hold together and make down to Kansas City is still in question. We will be tracking them on our newscasts tonight. We should have a pretty good idea by our 10PM newscast tonight.

Jacob Honeycutt

Who are you Jacob Honeycutt?

Looking at the IR, seems the clouds are eroding some as they head down this way.  Might still catch something, but will have to do some work.

The complex in TX is very interesting to watch on IR loop.

Jacob - I know it is minor, and generally a small nuisance from one blogger to another, but as an intern providing updates...watch the spelling.

;-)

Interesting...

http://www.research.ibm.com/weather/DT.html

OK Scott or Gary or whoever wants to handle this, following is a quote from a blog earlier in July "Kansas City will likely have a heat wave as well, and we have been able to use the LRC to pick out the most likely time for this to happen.  For weeks now we have been anticipating the upper high to shift and expand over the central plains by around the 20th of July.  So, get ready for some heat spurts here and the a likely heat wave within two weeks." So not wanting to be the naysayer around here can one of you explain in layman's terms how the LRC can lead you in this direction and be so far off?

Hville - I am sure Gary has a better answer, but in short..it didn't happen as expected.  The flow this July amped up much beyond norm and looks more like what May would look like.  The ridge that we expected over the Plains would have been very short lived as it was expected to move quickly to the East Coast.  I think "heat wave" might have been a bit strong, but alas...Gary is the LRC guru and I am still learning.  

One thing consistent still with this pattern is that any ridging to occur in the Plains would be short lived.

Its almost as if the May pattern should have been in July and July in May.  Even the LRC has curveballs, but we believe overall it provides much more guidance to future events than current methods.  

Heck, if anyone could interpret the LRC to 100% accuracy, um...they wouldn't be here.  LOL.  Live and learn.

HvilleBCM - as a followup, a picture is worth a thousand words - layman or technical...

Here is the dreaded comparison with a closer jet strength/position

Here is just 24 hrs from now.  The major features on the GFS would be pretty accurate.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_024l.gif

Here is the map from October 25th at the beginning of the LRC...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081025.html

who is Jacob Honeycutt?

scott - i too struggle with how the LRC could be so far off.  it was calling for a substantial heat wave...and we got the exact opposite - an impressive string of record LOWS.

Also, you talked about maps, comparing tomorrow to October 25th...but October 25th was not within your supposed cycle range.  It was not a multiple of 60 days ago... rather, it was 9 months ago, not 2, 4, 6, or 8.   If now is the end of July, shouldn't the previous cycles have been the end of May, March, January, and November, not the end of October?  

hmmm... looks like a way to make maps match and calling it good...but you're 30 days - half a cycle off.

i still have yet to see a reasonable explanation as to how this theory could be so solid, yet miss on this huge record-breaking cold that has covered a huge section of teh country.

Bizarro - I was wondering if anyone would pay attention.  Yes, what I posted was exactly one half cycle out of sync.  Interestingly, it also illustrates the LRC.  

This dominant NW flow recurs several times within a cycle.  Should this seem like I am making it up to cover my *** now, I would invite you to read the Winter outlook where it was noted there as well.

Bizarro - pick a method, time or otherwise to evaluate....take some time to look at the statistical correlations.  It is easy to snipe individual comments, but to date, I haven't found a critic who is willing to get dirty in actual data.  I do find many critics who deflect and want to debate semantics.

If you are so inclined, I am more than willing to have the discussion.  It has been and will continue to be an open invitation.  I doubt you will take me up on it, but in fairness, I offer it to anyone interested.

"i still have yet to see a reasonable explanation as to how this theory could be so solid, yet miss on this huge record-breaking cold that has covered a huge section of the country."

You mean like this from the CPC?

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/images/outlooktemp_small.jpg

Just based from looking at the LRC more lately, any forecast of the LRC this late in the cycle would seem to be more risky, as many have stated that it loses its characteristics.

I was bored, and found this quiz on winter weather. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/quizzes/winterwx/
Try to get a better score than me.