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Only Tuesday, But Cool, Rainy Weekend Looms.

*******Updated 10:45am******* New Data this morning keep the thunderstorm complex intact and brings rain into metro possibly this evening.  Below is this morning's NAM.

The rain could be here by this evening, in addition to that, it could rain heavily at times on Wednesday.  Watch NBC Action News Midday for the latest Powercast!

Good Tuesday Morning,

   Off to a cloudy start on this Tuesday.  Fog wasn't an issue this morning but clouds are keeping things gray at least this morning.  I think the clouds will break up a bit this afternoon allowing us to warm into the low & mid 80s.

   There is a weak front on the way for Wednesday.  We have a 50% chance of rain for Wednesday into Wednesday Night, beyond Wednesday there is an impressive feature, at least advertised by the models for this weekend.

   As you can see from the 500-mb chart below, showing the winds at about 18-thousand feet, there is a well defined upper low in the region on Saturday.

  

    The counter-clockwise circulation around that low should increase the moisture across the area and set us up for a large area of rain to develop across the metro on Saturday, and it could last several hours.  Below is the anticipated precipitation for Saturday for a six hour period Saturday afternoon.

 

   We are in the half-inch bullseye for that time frame, but really there is a chance of rain from early Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon.  So if you look at the total rainfall for the weekend, it appears we could see more than an inch with more three inches of rain possible just to our southeast.

       I think the big question this weekend is not whether it will rain (because I think it will, at least at times) but how much rain.  I think its pretty certain it will a cool preview of fall-like weather. 

    Gary is back on the blog tomorrow.  The Lezak Leaving Town Index was low this past weekend with no big weather events, except for yesterday's foggy morning.  Have a great Tuesday.

Brett

Published Tuesday, September 08, 2009 7:52 AM by wxman5

Comments

 

Mom3Play5 said:

Will the rain in central Kansas make it to the metro this morning - early afternoon?

Thank you ****I don't think so, its slowly creeping northeast and should fall apart as we go toward noon.  Brett
September 8, 2009 8:53 AM
 

NewToKC said:

Clouds, rain, a few hours of sunshine... clouds, rain, a few hours of sunshine... welcome to the past two weeks (and most of the spring and summer)!  At what point can we rename this place K-Seattle?

On a serious note, being relatively new to the area, are the warmer times of the year (April - October) always this gray and gross?  Yes, there's been some nice three or four day stretches, but then we get into these week long (or longer) stretches of "active weather."  The rain's great for the yard and plants, but this soupy stuff sure gets depressing.  Most KC natives rave about the great spring and fall weather, but my experience with one fall, one spring, and now trending into another fall is that they might have a skewed perspective.  Spring was wet, summer was just strange, and the past two weeks have only been sunny about 20% of the time, with more of the same forecast for this week.

Sorry for the rant.  I just want some extended sunshine!  **** I think the weather we've experienced this past year has been the exception more than the rule.   Its truly earned the old saying, "If you don't like the weather just wait 20-minutes and it'll change!" ***** Brett
September 8, 2009 9:01 AM
 

restull said:

There are several pockets in western and southern Kansas of 5-8 inches with a general swath of 2+ inches arcing southeast.
September 8, 2009 9:27 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

It sure doesn't look like that big area of rain is going to disspiate before it gets to the SW side of the Metro. I'm going to put off watering the new grass seed fornow.

NewToKC, I'm still pretty new here, too, just two and a half years. We moved here a week after the big freeze of April 2007 and a couple weeks before the Greensburg tornado. I'm still waiting for a 'normal' weather year, but I can't argue with the summer we've had. You can tell what a nice summer we've had just by looking at the lawns.
September 8, 2009 10:24 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

ChicagoExPat - I have been in KC all my life and would offer that more times than not [IMO] 'normal' is more just the mean of different extremes.  Certainly, there are stretches of what would seem normal, but seems just as you get adjusted to whatever the condition, it changes.

RE: rain chances through Thursday...I looking at the progs, can't see how we get missed.  Seems starting this evening through Thursday almost anytime is possible for rain.

The culprit is a vort max that gets separated from the mean flow and just sits over eastern KS.  This will create an enhanced area of lift bringing rain and thunderstorms to eastern KS.  If you look at the satellite, you can see it perched over central/eastern KS right now.

If you loop the image..it hasn't really moved much.

As far as the weekend..that is quite the ULL in view...FUN!
September 8, 2009 12:34 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Okay, so when they talk about a fall-weather kind of rainy weekend, what does that mean in Kansas? I'm hoping the answer is 'the kind of weekend when you put a pot of chili on to simmer and then curl up to watch football'.

And the satellite signal doesn't go in and out.
September 8, 2009 12:43 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

It's when it's rainy and the temps are cooler. If you're gonna put on a pot of chili, drink cocoa (early for that still) or watch sports then do it. No since always complaining about something unless you got the opportunity to move to some place you like better.
September 8, 2009 1:19 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

"a fall-weather kind of rainy weekend" doesn't mean much to me.  It could be anywhere from upper 50s to lower 80s with spotty rain chances, or misty light rain, or a weekend deluge.

It is the difference between a refreshing margarita on the deck after a packed day of landscaping to a book in bed while listening to rain softly hit the windows.

There is never a bad time for chili and football, regardless of the weather!
September 8, 2009 1:19 PM
 

Zazel said:

It would seem the "fall weather kind of rainy weekend" is the type where it's a gray overcast most, if not all weekend, with occasional drizzle falling from the clouds at any point.  Sometime during the weekend we would have light rain for hours on end, and perhaps one or two rumbles of thunder.  Temperatures will be unseasonably cool.  Overall, the type of weather that makes me want to slit my wrists.
September 8, 2009 1:23 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

No Zazel don't do that! I need people to cheer for warm temps with me.
September 8, 2009 1:31 PM
 

morrell said:

It seems like the rain is moving this way a little faster now.  What time do you expect it to start in KC?  I'm thinking it will be here in a couple of hours at this pace.
September 8, 2009 1:42 PM
 

A dogg said:

Here comes the rain!! It looks as if the rain here in Drexel will start within 15 to 20 minutes. What happened? Did it speed up?
September 8, 2009 1:43 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Whirly, I wasn't complaining. Just asking a question.
September 8, 2009 1:47 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Fall is definitely on our doorstep. Everything in the soup aisle at Price Chopper is on sale today.
September 8, 2009 1:52 PM
 

kimilee62 said:

Will the Royals get their game in tonight ?  Only going because we won some great tickets, but don't want to drive 70 miles if it's going to be rained out !

*******************

That's a tough question.  I think there will be some rain around during the game and a delay is possible.

Jeremy

September 8, 2009 2:12 PM
 

Elaine said:

doesn't sound good for the big parade in Olathe this Saturday morning!

***********************

Don't worry yet...the GFS had really no rain here this weekend and 70s both days.  Not quite sure what to believe at this point for Saturday...

Jeremy

September 8, 2009 2:23 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Jeremy, today's KSHB forecast for overnight and tomorrow has a line of rain moving from Nebraska southeast into Eastern Kansas and it looks like Wyandotte, Johnson, Leavenworth and Douglas counties are in its bullseye. Have you worked up any possible rain totals for what's to come overnight and into tomorrow? Thanks,

Tina

******************

Yes...and I'll talk about that on our shows at 5 & 6 p.m.

Jeremy

September 8, 2009 3:20 PM
 

kimilee62 said:

Thanks Jeremy, I appreciate you getting back to me, I think we will just stay home !
September 8, 2009 6:03 PM
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