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A Dry Start, But A Wet Finish?

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Good Saturday!  The weekend is off to a great start with sunshine and a nice crisp morning.  Winds are already out of the south-southwest which will lead to a quick warm-up before clouds rush in later today.  Highs should be in the 60s, so enjoy what should be a nice Fall day! 

The clouds on the way this afternoon could produce a few light showers by evening, especially near and north of I-70.  Right now this looks like about a 30% chance, but mainly north of Kansas City.  Can't rule out a shower this evening, but don't cancel any plans that may take you outdoors. 

Better rain chances will arrive by Sunday afternoon and evening.  There is an outside chance that some showers near the region by the end of the Chiefs game, but timing right now looks like late afternoon and evening.  The map below is from the 6Z GFS, showing that between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. a few showers could develop.

The rain will expand almost right on top of Kansas City and then continue as it pushes east.  The GFS rainfall forecast puts about 0.10" to 0.25" around the metro.  These totals will vary if thunderstorms are embedded.  High on Sunday should top out in the 60s, so as long as the rain holds off the weather for the Chiefs game should be pretty mild.

If you were hoping we could escape the cold air for an extended period, guess what?  The 6Z GFS is indicating another surge of chilly air heading back into the central U.S.  This push of cold air would likely translate into highs in the 40s with lows in the 20s or 30s.  The map below is for Thursday at 00Z.

That's it for today, enjoy the sunshine for the first half of the day!  Don't forget, we set our clocks back one hour NEXT weekend.  So our sunset times which are around 6:27 p.m. right now, will be about 5:23 p.m. a week from tomorrow!

Jeremy

 

Published Saturday, October 24, 2009 6:30 AM by Jeremy WxPlus

Comments

 

juba said:

I'm visiting here in LAwrence and waking up there was lots of frost and all the low lying areas had little patches of dense fog. Its a really neat morning.
October 24, 2009 8:25 AM
 

zeusthegreat said:

Jeremy,

Your taking the 06z GFS at face value, eh?  Seems so given how you worded that phrase.  All the models have been crap the past week, wouldn't trust anything past 3 days.  Isn't there another long range model?  Why don't you ever post that?

**********************

Not taking the GFS at face value at all, and by your statement of wouldn't trust anything past 3 days.  That would mean the rain forecast by the GFS should verify, based on your statement since this is within 3 days.  The 'cold' snap, that may be a different story.

If you do a weather blog let me know, I'll check out your map section and analysis.

Jeremy
October 24, 2009 8:49 AM
 

farmgirl said:

Jeremy, do you still think there is chance of the white stuff next week? Guess we'll wait and see. SO I'm enjoying our one day of glorious sunshine today. Gonna go out and pick the cockle burrs out of the horses tails and then take one down the gravel road for a much needed little ride. Who ever stands still the least is the one that will get rode! Ha!

Really hope the rain holds off unitl the afternoon tomorrow. Need the sun to dry out the lawn so hubby can mow for one last time and I can maybe try to get some tulip bulbs in the ground. I feel like we are scurry around like squirrels getting winter preperations done.

**************

Not sure who was talking about snow, but the 12Z GFS does bring some snow into Kansas, not sure if it will get in our viewing area.  That storm looks pretty impressive for next week!

Jeremy
October 24, 2009 11:36 AM
 

momof3 said:

Glad the cold is coming back.  Ready for some snow.  Awesome!  Thanks Jeremy for a nice blog entry on a mild saturday.  
October 24, 2009 12:27 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

I will be surprised if we get much rain if at all for Sunday at any point.  I am not fully on board with the GFS in the northern aspect.  I think more of the precip is to our south.  I would be shocked if anywhere in the metro gets more than even a quarter of an inch, but would be more sure of less than a tenth or none.

There seems to be a ribbon of more rich dewpoints nosing south of the metro into east central MO.

Where the line forms may be closer to Joplin than here.  I think Sunday will be a great day for a football game.

As far as the cold air behind the mid week storm?  I am going with the cold air on that one...not just model data but some trends I have been following.

Mid week will be a fun storm to watch...

********************

Just keep that snow away from here!

Jeremy

October 24, 2009 2:23 PM
 

NicoleWasHere said:

Spring yet?

*******************

You can come out, its not too bad today:)  At least it is in the 60s...

Jeremy

October 24, 2009 3:18 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

starting to get more and more deja vu moments with this weather pattern ...
October 24, 2009 4:25 PM
 

Givemeabreak said:

kcwxguy, what deja vu moments? Snow/cold leaning or it goes right by us at the last minute and we get nothing but rain or nada? We just moved here last Nov from the deep south, the kids would love to see some snow...
October 24, 2009 4:35 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Enjoyed a light rain shower and a view of a beautiful sunset.  Nice October day.

Give- so far this year fall, the storms haven't been missing us.
October 24, 2009 7:24 PM
 

juba said:

Look at this map on a NWS story, what would the weather be like if it were winter when this came through?

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=severe-102109
October 24, 2009 7:52 PM
 

Turd Fergenson said:

"This next trough is forecast by most models to dive into the southwestern states and then swing out into the plains. This will bring us our strongest cold front of the season so far and it will be cold enough to snow by the time the storm is exiting the region.  It doesn't appear we will see the end to the snowflake contest, as it takes an inch of snow to end it, but snowflakes may fall sometime next week after that cold front moves through."  

Gary said this which is why Farmgirl asked about it
October 24, 2009 8:24 PM
 

Givemeabreak said:

Thanks, kcwx-I was hoping that's what you meant and not deja vu from the past.

October 24, 2009 8:26 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

juba - there would be much less moisture available later when it would be more likely to snow.  Also, the rain we got was on the warm side of the low.  The low came almost over our head, which is not ideal for snow.

Ideally, you would want the low to track to our south and southeast more near Joplin or so, depending on the maturity of the commahead.  That would put us in the deformation zone where snow would fall with the wrap around moisture with the colder air in place.

If wishes were fishes, we'd all cast nets....
October 24, 2009 8:47 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Uh-oh, I think that rain was mainly south of I-70 not north.

**************

If you look at the radar rainfall estimates for our viewing area the bulk of the sprinkles/light rain was near and north of I-70.  Hard to tell what was actually real and what evaporated before reaching the ground.  Just a few sprinkles at our station this evening.

Jeremy
October 24, 2009 9:31 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

AHPS isn't even picking up the precip as it was sooo light...  EAX just barely shows a trace, but not sure how reliable it is...hard to say exactly what hit the ground and what didn't.

Very weak frontal boundary indeed..but cool to watch on vapor loop.

Hey Jeremy - check out the Ensemble graphic [second one] prog...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/stormtracks/combined_gfs_pcp.gif
October 24, 2009 11:30 PM
 

NicoleWasHere said:

At least it is in the 60s...


^^  Not good enough, cuz it's only gonna keep getting colder.  I need heeeeaaaat!  And not just something coming out of a vent.
October 25, 2009 1:11 AM
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