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Good Sunday bloggers! Thank you for checking out the weekend edition of Kansas City's favorite weather blog! Today may be a half and half day. Temperature-wise the day won't be too bad with highs in the 60s again. The downside may be rain showers, which should move in this afternoon. Rain chances will increase the later we get into the day. So a trip to Arrowhead should start dry, but I can't guarantee the entire game will remain rainfree. Right now I would put the rain chance during the game at 30%.
Since yesterday we looked at the GFS in regards to rain, let's check out the NAM. This is a 24 hour rainfall forecast. This puts a bullseye of over 1" of rain just east and southeast of the metro. I do think there is going to be a heavier pocket of rain, but saying with 100% certainty where that sets up is difficult. The best chance will be from Kansas City and points east-southeast.
This is round one of the rain. The models late yesterday and this morning are showing a more organized storm for Monday-Tuesday. This could keep us in the showers right through parts of Tuesday. This second piece of energy will bring us round two of the rain.
Below is the 6Z GFS forecast for 7 a.m. Tuesday. The 500mb vort max is about to reach its peak intensity. Could this be one of the long term longwave trough positions for this coming winter? It is something we are watching closely, because again, what you see below is a forecast. The exact position of the trough or vort max will be a key not only for this one storm system and impact our rain chances, but possibly a key ingredient to our winter forecast?
The main theme for today is rain chances increase as the day progresses. Showers could continue all the way into Tuesday. Not raining the entire time, but periods of showers are possible.
One other thing I wanted to point out. Yesterday the 12Z GFS numerical 'guidance' had a high of 54 for Wednesday. Our forecast has consistently been in the 60s for that day. I think yesterday it ranged from 66-68. We are anticipating a slower and stronger solution for the storm in this time period that the models seem to slowly be grabbing onto. If the storm slows even more, then 60s may start Thursday before colder air rushes. Lots to talk about in the coming days and we will be on top of the changes in the blog and on-air!
Jeremy