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Good morning everyone,
We are tracking two storm systems this morning. The first one already affected us as it passed by on Sunday with the band of rain and thunderstorms. It dropped into Texas, reorganized and the upper system has become negatively tilted and it is being ejected out as a much stronger storm dives into the western states. You can see the two storm systems on the this map:
There is an area of light rain showers moving into southern Linn County this morning and the showers are drifting north. There is a chance that these showers could make it close to Kansas City later this morning, but areas to the north and west will not be affected much at all today by this system. The second storm is much stronger as you can see on this next map:
Quite often we will talk about a major storm system for days, and then when it moves through we only experience a quick band of showers when the system tracks to your north. This system will eject northwest of Kansas City, with a trailing southern split off of the main storm which will fall into almost the same spot as today's storm system. As the northern part of this storm moves out we will likely get that one band of showers/thunderstorms. So, we have two more days to talk about this storm, but the impact will likely be small.
After this next storm goes by, the jet stream is forecast to lift significantly northward. But for how long? The LRC is still becoming established with the first cycle still in progress. There is going to be much more to it than just what we have experienced the past few weeks. So, as the jet stream shifts north it should be a reality check for anyone who has jumped to any conclusions on what this weather pattern means for winter. We are still analyzing the new LRC and our winter forecast will come out November 16th when I do a special segment on NBC Action News. Here is the retreating jet stream as shown on the 500 mb GFS forecast valid at noon on Sunday. I would have usually said 1 PM, but the time changes this weekend, which means the data will come out an hour earlier.
Have a great day. We have brand new weather graphics debuting tonight on NBC Action News in HD. Let us know what your first impression is later on today.
Gary