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A Strong Storm Approaches Our Region

Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's most accurate forecast.  And, you can still enter the snowflake contest as the deadline for entries is still two weeks away!

Good morning bloggers,

A very strong storm is moving through the Rocky Mountain states this morning. It will emerge out into the plains later today and affect us on Thursday, and possibly over the weekend.  Here is a picture from Denver, CO this morning with the huge snowflakes falling.  Some areas will get more than a foot of snow today out there so if you have travel plans to Denver check ahead.

You can see the storm system by looking at the main curl in the clouds over eastern Utah. This storm is now forecast to split into two pieces as you can see on the next two maps.

This GFS 500 mb forecast is valid at 7 PM Thursday.  The main 540 dm (decameter) upper low is a rather impressive as it lifts out over the western plains states. There is a second lobe of this storm that is forecast to split off and form into a new southern storm system.  The lifting out storm will bring us a strong band of rising motion Thursday along and ahead of a cold front and this will result in rain & possible thunderstorms during the day tomorrow.

This second storm has to be monitored closely as it will affect Halloween.  If it gets any closer we could see some rain back in here from the east on Saturday evening, but most likely this will just miss us to the southeast.  How will this storm split and exactly where will this storm track after it develops on Friday? 

We will be tracking all of these developments on NBC Action News in HD.  Check back in this evening and I will try to update the blog as new data rolls in.  And, for those of you just wondering about today, well, it is going to be a great day. We are forecasting 65ยบ with some sunshine breaking out.

Gary

 

 

 

Published Wednesday, October 28, 2009 7:09 AM by glezak

Comments

 

sgrube said:

Any way of knowing when it would rain Thursday? We have a field trip to the pumpkin patch that has already been rescheduled once. I would hate to miss out a second time. If you could hold off the rain until about 11 am, that would be great! :)

******* I hope it holds off for you but our Powercast has scattered showers moving in during the morning.   Brett

October 28, 2009 7:41 AM
 

reafamily said:

I am more worried about football tomorrow night as many Missouri schools are playing district game. Any thoughts on when the rain will move out of the southern viewing area tomorrow?

Thanks,
Pat
October 28, 2009 9:25 AM
 

lisahiggs said:

Hi! Gary, I hope the weather holds for Halloween.  I know the kids would be disappointed.  I love your accurate commericals.  I especially love the golf one.  I sure wish I was that accurate.  I'm sure Stormy and Breeze can't wait for the first snow.  I know how you love snow.  Thank you and your staff for all they do everyday.  Especially when there is bad weather.  Good Luck to everyone that put down when they think the first inch of snow will fall.  Thanks,  Lisa
October 28, 2009 1:03 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Storms are building out to west. Will those make it here by night time?

I hope the rain forecast changes for the weekend and it remains dry. Suppose to join a club ride down by Stockton Lake on Saturday. This is the thrid time we have tried to ride down there this fall... I hope it is not another washout!
October 28, 2009 1:07 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Farmgirl, I'll cross my fingers for you and for all the trick-or-treaters and their parents. Brett's midday forecast showed no rain chances for Saturday. Hope it stays that way.
October 28, 2009 1:22 PM
 

JOCOWX145 said:

MOMOF3, CHANGE IS NOT ALWAYS GOOD.  DON'T KNOW HOW YOU CAN MAKE A BLANKET STATEMENT LIKE THAT ON THE LAST BLOG.  CHANGE FOR THE BETTER IS ALWAYS GOOD, BUT NOT ALL CHANGE IS GOOD.
October 28, 2009 1:39 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

If anyone is interested, this week's K-State Horticulture Newsletter has a very informative piece on fall color of various trees as well as the influence of weather on color.  http://www.hfrr.ksu.edu/DesktopDefault.aspx?tabid=764

October 28, 2009 1:43 PM
 

momof3 said:

JOCOWX145- First of all take your cap lock off, that is annoying.  Second of all I don't think saying change is good is something to make a big deal of.  You might want to relax a little because change is good to me and aren't I allowed to say that?  I like all of the weather changes.  I like the wintry ones better but I like all of the changes involving weather.  Not a big deal, like will go on.
October 28, 2009 2:47 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I love the snow in the Denver area. Everytime it snows there I think about my Sister in Law who insists that it does not snow there very much. She says we get more snow here than she does in Denver. Enjoy your lack of snow Debbie! (insert silly giggle here). Have a great day everyone and thanks for making me smile Mother Nature!
October 28, 2009 3:02 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

I  love the weather in Denver and along the lee slope of the Rockies in Colorado.  Weather changes are very rapid and exciting, with 70s one day and heavy snow the next being a fairly common occurrence.  You get at least one or two snows of a foot or more most winters, but the bitter cold and snow don't last long and there are lots of sunny days too, while here the cold goes on and on in some winters and there is very little snow to enjoy and often many cloudy days.
October 28, 2009 3:22 PM
 

juba said:

We finnaly got the screen back up in the window in my bird's room...just in time for one of the last great "open your windows" days of the year, its really refreshing outside and nice to listening to all the leaves skipping across the street.

I don't want it to rain on halloween either, I'm going to an outdoor concert then and if it rains they can't do anything fun for halloween and they will loose another day to play it again. I hope you all have a good and refreshing afternoon!

Skylar
October 28, 2009 3:38 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Juba!  Your bird has its own room?  Lucky bird!
October 28, 2009 3:42 PM
 

juba said:

We didn't have anything else to do with the room, and there are too, skillful, cats in our house. It is supposed to be a guest room but we sold the bed. Now stan has her own room!
October 28, 2009 4:12 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I hope that upper low track is something of a trend this winter. we could get some nice snows from tracks similar to that.
October 28, 2009 4:50 PM
 

spotter said:

hey snow lovers lets go to estes park they are saying for that area 18-36 in with some totals up to 4 feet now that is a snow.
October 28, 2009 5:20 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Juba,
<Now stan has her own room!>

You have a female bird named Stan? What type of bird is she? We have a female Indian Ringneck (she is powder blue), a male Quaker (he is Green and talks a bit) and a male Cockatiel (Gray). They don't like it when it is below 70 degrees and I would worry about them and cool breezes.

Do you guys think it is going to wait until after midnight before we have chances of precip?
October 28, 2009 6:16 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

HailJohnathan - I hope you are wrong. This thing is dryslotting us.
October 28, 2009 6:45 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

HailJohnathan - I hope you are wrong. This thing is dryslotting us.
October 28, 2009 6:50 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

if your going to say something at least spell my name right.
October 28, 2009 7:08 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

f00dl3 - based on the relationship of how the phasing works, this particular storm is going to appear to have some dysfunction.  I am not sure yet exactly where the surface low will track yet.

It is not dryslotting us yet as it is not here yet.  If you are basing on the progs, I would hold off as this will be a bit tricky due to the phasing/splitting.  I am not overly concerned about the storm track at this point.

Remember, as the jet amplifies, the vorticity will dig a bit deeper.  If it is perceived we are dryslotting now, in a few weeks, we likely won't be.  There is more to this line of thinking, but I will hold off for now.

Looking at this last storm, the progs showed a similar track.  Ended up that we got more moisture than initially forecasted.  In fact, we caught some of the backside where the models had it going further north.  It ended up having a beautiful commahead that we did see in KC

Lately we have had a propensity to have mid level moisture present [abundant cloudiness as evidence] and it has seemed the models have underdone the amount of moisture lingering about in the mid layers.

I see where you are thinking, but I am not sure about it yet.  I so far like the trends...
October 28, 2009 7:23 PM
 

juba said:

Stan is a Sun Conure, we got her at PetCo and they thought she was a boy and named her that. :) All she ever wnats to do is snuggle and go potty, we need to get her a birdy diper.
October 28, 2009 8:01 PM
 

outwest said:

Greetings from Fort Collins, CO.  We are really getting hit with the snow.  Wind is not too bad. About 14" so far and I'll bet we'll end up with 18" or so.
October 28, 2009 9:27 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....

:-)


http://yfrog.com/9g091029matchj
October 28, 2009 9:57 PM
 

jtizz said:

^^^^^ i think the pattern has started cycling too! last month we had a couple cut off lows and this next storm is a cutoff low too similar to last month so i think we have a general idea of what this winter may bring.

if the dates from above match up then in another 7 to 10 days we should be experiencing another hard cold snap

if that pattern is already cycling in roughly 37 days then i think i might like this winter!!!
October 28, 2009 10:16 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

f00dl3 - keep watching.  Yes, indeed there are similarities, but that may be more the case of a similar long term longwave where many storms may have a similar pattern.

Remember - it is not just one map to another in time, rather the full movement of features.  

If you are seeking to dig into the LRC, study where the storm tracks have been, watch where the ULLs have entered, dug, and lifted.  Study where major features seem to recur.  These will help you find the pattern.

I am not saying yes or no to what you proposed as things are just now setting up in some aspects of the LRC.  

I am curious, what was the first duration you thought it was?  I am asking not to point out anything, but if it was what I remembered, it is very interesting.
October 28, 2009 10:18 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

jtizz - based on some analysis I would give the below normal temps 7-10 days out about a 70% chance.  I won't go into why I think this, but do agree with you.

Though - looking at the current 18z GFS - that run would disagree with the cooler than normal temps for KC.

Lets keep watching and learning.
October 28, 2009 10:28 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

kcwxguy,

Initial impression was 51 days based on a few things I saw going on a bit ago. Not throwing that away yet - but just saw so many similarities in that previous image.

Admitted - now looking back 51 days there are many similarities there as well! (Plus it accounts for the expected warm-up next week, and actually better for the jet stream fluctuations up in Southern Canada the week leading up to it as well.

Either way everything I'm seeing points to cold air recharging over northern Canada and eventually plunging down into our area in 12 to 14 days, while we enjoy mild weather for a bit after this storm passes.

http://tinyurl.com/yzz6pvy << 9/8/09

October 28, 2009 10:31 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

everything lines  up almost perfectly except the trough in the first image hasn't dug deep into the southern rockies, other than that remarkably similar.
October 28, 2009 10:59 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Good eyes, f00dl3.  Don't abandon either one.
October 28, 2009 11:33 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

If it rains as hard tomorrow as some are saying I feel like I should park my car at work and put soap on it and let nature do the rest. It sure needs a bath!! When do you think the rain will start?
October 28, 2009 11:52 PM
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